Taiwanese election, Jan 2016

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So yes. I assumed jaichind will fill us up with the details of this race, but from what I know of his views he is probably not ... happy with the expected outcome of this race. As you probably know, Taiwanese politics is split between the pan-Blue coalition who are broadly right-wing and identify with Chinese Nationalism and the pan-Green coalition who are broadly left-wing and identify as Taiwanese nationalists. Taiwanese politics is a curious game, as both sides have long-term goals, but making any steps towards these aims would be so controversial everybody has to shuffle around with symbols and secret pacts without anybody else noticing. (Very much akin to Norn politics in some ways)

The widely expected victor is of the main pan-Green party the Democratic People's Party or DPP, the main party of opposition to the one-party state that ended in the late 80's. In 1991, the ruling KMT, terrified that the DPP would overtake the legislature (Yuan) and end the Taiwanese government's One China Policy dramatically increased the Presidents power. However by the second presidential election in 2000, the DPP won the Presidency under former Mayor of Taipei Chen Shui-bian. president Chen's time in office would be controversial: having no control of the Yuan, dogged with the Asian financial crisis and corruption charges ("black gold"). He was narrowly reelected in 2004 following a supposed assassination attempt that many claimed was faked - a trial would follow which involved, among others, the forensic scientist from the OJ Simpson trial. (The 2004 election was crazy drama-filled, making Bush vs Gore seem like an election in Singapore by contrast) Chen continued in his second term to "creep" towards sovereignty, annoying the U.S. to the extent they refused to let his plane refuel in NYC or LA and forced him to go to Alaska (poor guy) and the legislature continued to throw roadblocks in his way, trying to recall him on numerous occasions. By 2006, scandal around him and his family were becoming so all-encompassing that even DPP grandee Shih Meng-tee led a sit-in to get rid of the guy. Predictably the DPP were obliterated in the 2008 elections, and Chen and his wife were thrown out in disgrace. The party has now been in the process of rebuilding under chairwoman and nominee Tsai Ing-wen, having already won a stunning victory in last local elections. Tsai has led a cautious and guarded campaign, making overtures to Washington and Beijing that the status quo will be maintained.

The other big party is the KMT. The KMT has a long and interesting history, but in the democratic era of Taiwan, it has had two elected presidents. The very curious Lee-Teng Hui who seemed to change his mind about the entire stated purpose of his party midway through his leadership (and now works on behalf of the Japanese government); and incumbent president Ma Ying-Jeou. Ma has pursued much closer economic and political ties with the PRC to the consternation of the DPP and, apparently, the Taiwanese people, who deeply distrust Beijing. Though Ma, from what I can tell, has led a fairly pragmatic administration; there is rising inequality and third party forces. Many young people simply don't care about the "issue" of reunification and wish for more of a focus on the economy. Although they don't care for DPP's stance as well, they have found the KMT's candidate Hung Hsui-Chu to be a bit of a dud. In fact she lacks governing experience at all, giving rise to a new entry ...

James Soong under his own personal party People's First. A massively popular elected KMT governor of "Taiwan Province" during the 90's, he was the one who - furious at not being nominated - split the pro-unification vote allowing the dreaded Pres Chen into power. In fact, he was widely predicted to win (the KMT's candidate Lien Chan being such a dud that many assume Presideny Lee was sabotaging his own party) until the KMT decided to drag him down with them. In the infamous 2004 election Soong served as the KMT's vice presidential nominee (under none other than former rival Lien Chan), to avoid vote splitting (to accommodate his ego, the KMT top brass apparently promised him unparalleled power.). Following two disasterous runs for Taipei Mayor and for President in 2012, a lot of people wrote Soong off as a bitter has-been. But now, ever the political chancer, Soong has jumped into the race for President. By the latest polls, Soong is overtaking the KMT candidate Hung. Could this be a repeat of 2000?

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This is very marginal, but I am curious:

The founder of the Danish People's Party (and current Speaker) Pia Kjærsgaard (68) is known to have very good personal contacts to prominent figures on the right wing of KMT (from her own generation - so rather old now), contacts established through some anti-Communist 80s/90s network I can't remember. I basically only know KMT as a historical party (pre-multi party politics), so how right wing is KMT today? What kind of international contacts do they have? Are there any other contacts to Western New Right/right wing populist parties? How about in Asia?

It has had the odd side effect that apart from EU and Israel, Taiwan and PRC is basically the only foreign policy issue DPP cares about and even if they generally don't give a damn about the right to demonstrate they have been remarkably critical of the Copenhagen police's heavy handed efforts to silence/harass/remove Falun Gong sympathisers and pro-Tibet activists during the Chinese President's last state visit. Kjærsgaard is also the Deputy Chairman of the Danish Taiwanese Society (it's chairman is a former Liberal cabinet Minister).

The strangest thing is that nowadays the proper anti-communist option nowadays would probably be the pan-Greens, who infuriate the Chinese Communists so. The KMT really is no different from other such sprawling parties of power like the LDP of Japan and PAP in Singapore - wielding enormous links and influence in the business leadership, unions and bureaucracy. In particular the party has enormous assets - it is by some measures the world's richest political party - controlling vast swathes of banks, investment firms and the majority of Taiwan's media. (The party has since 2000 shed the most ostentatious of its assets though, under somewhat suspicious means)

The party gets most of its strength from the "elite" and descendants of the refugees from the Civil War, but there are some curiosities. For example, Taiwanese aboriginals seem to vastly prefer the KMT to the DPP and its allies, as there is deep resentment between the Hoklo Taiwanese who arrived pre-Civil War (who dominate the DPP) and the aboriginals who have lived there for much longer.

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The strangest thing is that nowadays the proper anti-communist option nowadays would probably be the pan-Greens, who infuriate the Chinese Communists so.

Not really, the operative modifier is "Chinese," not "Communists."

True, but there's some irony in there. Given history.

There are of course other issues going in the election. One of them is that old Atlas favourite gay marriage (it combines mapmaking with homosexuality, so an ideal topic for your average Atlasian). Gay rights groups in Taiwan seem to be targeting big - the first Asian country to have marriage equality! (Nepal is supposed to have it in its constitution, but we all know how that affair is being dragged out) however they are receiving a certain amount of pushback:

http://focustaiwan.tw/news/asoc/201509200009.aspx

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SHAKE-UP: KMT have voted to rescind their nomination of Hung Hsui-Chu in light of her terrible polling numbers, replacing her with Eric Chu, Mayor of New Taipei.

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Chu has not significNtly changed the polling presidentially, and it seems many KMT elite are trying to save the furniture in the legislature. Of course, the KMT dogged President Chen in office and the DPP seem to be mobilising to seize a majority for the first time. Now Chu and his allies talk about avoiding "one-party state rule", which is kind of ironic as, y'know, the KMT.

Many supporters of Hung meanwhile are pissed at the KMT for throwing her under the bus - she was running a genial "low-energy" campaign, and some people respect that. Whether she uses this to her own advantage is her choice.

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Obama uses the dying days of the KMT government to splash some arms to Taiwan (obviously giving arms to a DPP government would be a big diplomatic no) Beijing sniffs.

The KMT really are in desperation mode at this point. Chu picked human rights lawyer and former labor minister Jennifer Wang as his running mate tohurt the party's image as elitist, but she has been dogged by allegations of financial shadiness surrounding her properties (which made her sue the journalists and refuse to explicitly deny the claims), and been hit by a highly embarrassing protest from laid-off workers who she also sued (for some reason), and is now a regular lightning rod even in pro-Blue media.

KMT's legislative lists have also been accused of being nepotistic, rewarding local party machines and people who were willing to put up with the change to the Presidential ticket. Lianhe Wanbao (pro-KMT) has called it “the worst legislators-at-large list in history.”

Congrats DPP.

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Now this could be interesting:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/26/taiwan-heavy-metal-star-stands-for-election

Some sort of podemos style movement?

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poll for the proportional section of the Yuan:

DPP 27%
KMT 23%
New Power 6% (the new leftish party which is strongly calling for democratic reform, like eliminating two of the five (!!!) branches of government and MMP. Its leader is the Amnesty Chairman/metal singer Huang Kuo-chang, who is associated strongly with the student-led Sunflower movement of 2014.

People First 5% (James Soong's outfit, and KMT ally. Soong is a fairly savvy politician being one of the first pan-Bluers to make outreach into Taiwanese speaking voters. His party itself (essentially written off a few years ago) is jumping ship, eschewing the KMT's domestic agenda (one of its candidates in Taipei has actually won the DPP's backing.)

Green - SDP 3% (Green party founded in the 90's in alliance with new lefty party)

Taiwan Solidarity Union 2% (as Hash said "DPP on steroids")

Other parties running include Tree Party, an anti-sprawl splinter of the Green Party; MCFAP (pan Blue, aimed at "soldiers’, civil servants’, and teachers’ dignity" ; the Unionist Party, a unification party led by the gangster Chang An-le ("White Wolf"); Taiwan Independence Party (DPP on even more steroids); New Party, a pan-Blue  old anti-Lee splinter that is now a misnomer and Minkuotang, a conservative pan-Blue party providing Soong's VP, has been accused of being a machine for the Chan Buddhist hierarchy at best, and being a creepy cult that preys upon college kids at worst.

Here's a predictions that seems credible (keep in mind I speak neither Taiwanese nor Mandarin, so I go via Google Translate or Anglophone Taiwanese journalists/bloggers):

http://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/forecasting-the-2016-taiwan-legislative-elections

essentially, the DPP have managed to ally well with minor parties, like the SDP and New Power, while the KMT have been shambolic. For a hyper-rich party of power, this is a really appalling campaign no matter what Obama does to save the status quo. I'm kind of surprised that the media aren't covering this election more tbh.

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https://frozengarlic.wordpress.com/2015/12/29/whats-your-lucky-number/

Fun blogpost for lovers of psephological data. (so, err, all Atlas users)

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Isn't it fun that Taiwanese politics can bring hardcore communists and libertarian poll tax supporters under the same umbrella?

I really find Soong's choice of running mate peculiar. I mean better than Chu's choice lol, but still/

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I think the crux of the issue is that the bases of the parties really, really, really want either unification or independence, but for most of the population, it's a lesser concern and neither extreme (i.e. being subsumed under Beijing's wing/starting WW3) really is that appetising for your average Taiwan resident.  So a DPP government will throw a bit of red meat to their base (via symbolic name changes etc.) but don't want to alienate the majority of the population by sincerely carrying through their desire (unless they become radicalised by Beijing doing something especially dumb).

jaichind, who would you vote for? Soong? MKT? New Party? KMT?

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Oh not surprising, just amusing.

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The Chu/Wang ticket has drifted economically leftwards in a manic attempt to get the yoofs