House Leadership Megathread: it's House of Cards but without the monologues

[Bacon King]

HOUSE LEADERSHIP ELECTION MEGATHREAD 2015

With McCarthy out, the entire Republican Conference is in chaos. Due to the intransigence of the House Freedom Caucus, any potential candidate for Speaker must demonstrate that they are supported by at least 218 Congressmen. Until that happens, no new Speaker can be elected and therefore Boehner will legally be forced to remain as Speaker of the House until the end of the term - even if he resigns his seat.

Declared Candidates for Speaker
Jason Chaffetz (publicly stated he will drop out if Paul Ryan enters the race)
Daniel Webster (said he will probably drop out if he loses the support of the Freedom Caucus)

Those two were running for Speaker before McCarthy dropped out, and both of them remain in the race.

The following list are those who are considering a run, those who are being urged to run, and those who have been named by multiple credible sources as a possibility for Speaker.

Potential Candidates for Speaker
Paul Ryan - after numerous denials, pressure from his colleagues has forced him to "consider" a run
Tom Cole - named by many people, supports Paul Ryan
Cathy McMorris Rogers - wants Paul Ryan to run
Tom Price - mentioned as a potential candidate to unify all the GOP factions
Darrell Issa - publicly stated he is considering a run if Paul Ryan doesn't
John Kline - mentioned as a "caretaker" candidate, supports Paul Ryan
Greg Walden - offered himself as a possible interim Speaker
Lynn Westmoreland - openly considering a run
Newt Gingrich - seriously suggested by several Congressmen; will do it if elected
Jeb Hensarling - repeatedly mentioned as a potential "unifier" among GOP faction
Mike Conway - considering a run
Marsha Blackburn - considering a run
Jim Jordan - leads Freedom Caucus, not running, for some reason The Hill say's he's 2nd likeliest to win
Bill Flores - RSC Chairman; will run if Ryan doesn't
Mike Conaway - will consider running if Ryan doesn't
Michael McCaul
Candice Miller - said to be considering a run

Unnamed Bipartisan Unity Speaker - suggested by Charlie Dent



Here are other threads about the current drama!

"Keven McCarthy Drops Out" thread
An Atlas poll about who the next Speaker will be
a modest proposal to Make Congress Great Again
A thread by blue3 pertaining to Gingrich's hypothetical candidacy
A thread by ProudModerate2, noting concerns about increasing extremism in the GOP Conference
jojoju wants Mario Diaz-Balart to be Speaker

[Vega]

If Scalise can become Majority Leader, that will be a super quick rise. Perhaps one of the fastest in House history.

[Bacon King]

Peter Roskam has collected fifty signatures from his fellow House Republicans to call for a extended special conference meeting to allow the GOP to have a thorough debate about on the upcoming Speaker election. This delay will give the anti-McCarthy campaign more time to organize.

[Miles]

Hensarling is supporting Price for Majority Leader.

[Miles]

Whoah, Paul Ryan also supports Price.

[Vega]

Whoah, Paul Ryan also supports Price.

Price is pretty right of center, no?

[The Other Castro]

This seems to be turning into a Scalise/Price/McMorris-Rodgers fight. I would guess Price would win given recent events.

[Bacon King]

OP updated

The special conference is scheduled for tomorrow at 5PM

[Classic Conservative]

Let's go Webster!!!!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Let's go Webster!!!!

You do realize that if Webster gets 20+ votes, it could hand over the Speakership to Pelosi. Is that what you guys in the Tea Party want?

[Bigby]

Let's go Webster!!!!

You do realize that if Webster gets 20+ votes, it could hand over the Speakership to Pelosi. Is that what you guys in the Tea Party want?

The Speaker can be from the minority party?

[The Other Castro]

Let's go Webster!!!!

You do realize that if Webster gets 20+ votes, it could hand over the Speakership to Pelosi. Is that what you guys in the Tea Party want?

The speaker needs a majority of the votes cast, so Pelosi wouldn't win. There would be additional ballots until someone wins with a majority.

[Bacon King]

To be elected, the Speaker needs a majority among all votes that are cast for eligible candidates. It's theoretically possible for Pelosi to be elected Speaker, but it would require at least sixty Republicans to vote "present" or not vote at all (and even if for some bizarre reason that were to happen, the GOP majority could then immediately pass a motion to vacate the Speakership which would kick Pelosi out again)

[Nhoj]

Dennis Ross is one of those few Representative I forgot existed, I think I kinda recall his name now though.

[BaconBacon96]

Apparently McMorris Rodgers is not going to run.

[Taco Truck 🚚]

The Speaker can be from the minority party?

It says a lot about the average American that even people who post on politics forums haven't even bothered to read the Constitution.

[Bacon King]

The Speaker can be from the minority party?

It says a lot about the average American that even people who post on politics forums haven't even bothered to read the Constitution.

I'm sorry but I don't see how "The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers" would, on its own, definitively answer Mr. Bigby's question

[SteveRogers]

The Speaker can be from the minority party?

It says a lot about the average American that even people who post on politics forums haven't even bothered to read the Constitution.

The answer to that question definitely isn't in the Constitution.

[Taco Truck 🚚]

The Speaker can be from the minority party?

It says a lot about the average American that even people who post on politics forums haven't even bothered to read the Constitution.

I'm sorry but I don't see how "The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers" would, on its own, definitively answer Mr. Bigby's question

There is zero mention of political parties ANYWHERE in the Constitution so why would being in the majority party be a prerequisite for a job outlined in the document?

This is basic Constitution stuff.  It doesn't even require reading comprehension.

[Joe Republic]

The Speaker can be from the minority party?

It says a lot about the average American that even people who post on politics forums haven't even bothered to read the Constitution.

I'm sorry but I don't see how "The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers" would, on its own, definitively answer Mr. Bigby's question

There is zero mention of political parties ANYWHERE in the Constitution so why would being in the majority party be a prerequisite for a job outlined in the document?

This is basic Constitution stuff.  It doesn't even require reading comprehension.

You brought up the Constitution first. 

[Storebought]

Here's hoping for the off chance that 60+ GOP Congressmen would sooner vote for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker than anyone of the extreme wing of their own caucus...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

To be elected, the Speaker needs a majority among all votes that are cast for eligible candidates. It's theoretically possible for Pelosi to be elected Speaker, but it would require at least sixty Republicans to vote "present" or not vote at all (and even if for some bizarre reason that were to happen, the GOP majority could then immediately pass a motion to vacate the Speakership which would kick Pelosi out again)

While a mass "present" vote by republicans is one scenario for Pelosi, she could also do it with just Thirty Republicans if she could get them to actually vote for her. There are 188 Democrats, and if all of them go for Pelosi, you only need 30 republicans to get to 218. Yeah, I know Pelosi only received 164 votes in the 2015 Speaker Vote, but a lot of Democrats were absent because Mario Cuomo's funeral was on the same day, plus a few voted for some other democrat or "present". If there was a real chance of Pelosi getting to 218, I'd imagine all 188 democrats would be whipped into showing up and supporting her. It's an unlikely scenario, but it's not impossible if the republican speaker nominee is a Scalise-type, which is perfectly possible since you only need a simple majority of your party at conference to be the party nominee, but need the much bigger hurdle of 218 votes (assuming no absentions or absences) to be elected speaker on the house floor.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Crossing lines to vote for Pelosi is political suicide.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The last Speaker election had Boehner win with only 216 votes. While that's not a majority of all members, it was a majority of the 408 who voted.

Democrats had 164 for Pelosi, 3 for others, and 21 not voting. It would have been real close for Boehner if all the Democrats had all voted, upping upping the threshold to 215 to win.

Republicans had 216 for Boeher, 25 for others, 5 not voting, and 1 vacant

Note that 1 of the not votings was actually "present", but I don't think it matters.

[Maxwell]

Whoah, Paul Ryan also supports Price.

Price is pretty right of center, no?

Price is very right of center, but so is Scalise, and Price doesn't have the baggage that Scalise has.

And being from Oklahoma and knowing the congressionial field, I'm very surprised that Tom Cole, a Boehner ally and a guy obviously rising through the ranks, isn't going for spot #3 and Markwayne Mullin (who, for all intents and purposes, is a backbencher even compared to Cruzite Jim Bridenstine from my district) is running for it.