PA-Harper: Toomey up big

[MT Treasurer]

Toomey (R, inc.): 48%
McGinty (D): 34%

Toomey (R, inc.): 47%
Sestak (D): 37%

http://harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-statewide-poll--september-2015

Considering how low the approval rating (PPP) is for Senator Toomey (28%), I just can't see the Koch fronts wasting money in Pennsylvania. 

[Skye]

Toomey knows how to play.

[ElectionsGuy]

Someone needs to tell pbrower that approval numbers don't mean anything in the 2010's.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The election isnt until nxt Nov and Sestak was down too at this time in 2010. This is a Harper not PPP poll & Pa is so important in 2016, I dont think this is the end of the story about this race.

Just give it more time Toomey will have a race on his hands after Dems settle on nominee, eventually.

[windjammer]

I have the feeling he will lose in the end.

[JMT]

Once Democrats settle on a nominee (I'm hoping its Katie McGinty, I think she'd be a stronger nominee for Democrats) this race will become way more competitive. Still very far out from the election, and PA is a swing / tilt D state at the Presidential level. Toomey very well could win this and is favored right now but he won't be up this big for the whole election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its probably more like a 4-6 pt race right now, PPP has yet to Poll OH, Pa & NH again. Harper always overstates polls.

[Torie]

Yes, the Dems need to spend 500 million on the urgent task of defeating Toomey. I mean it's next to impossible for a Pub to win in PA in a presidential year.  At least that is what I have read, again, and again, around here. 500 million however, should be enough to remind voters that Pubs can't win in PA in statewide races in a POTUS election year.

Alas, in reality, the Dems will spend little on this race, and write the race off. You just watch. Despite all the chatter, 1) PA these days is a swing state, and 2) Toomey is a very skilled and articulate politician, who knows how to keep himself out of trouble, and not support things that will hurt him in his state much, and is good a making gestures to the other side, as in gun control. 1 plus 2 equals a probable Toomey win. Deal with it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With Pa an almost win state I doubt they write Pa off completely. But Strickland is doing better in OH and Maggie Hassen still may enter the race. Dems are still focused on OH, Pa and NH collectively for that fourth seat as well as AZ. But WI, IL & FL are decent.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Republican candidate ahead, so obviously a junk poll, right?

[pbrower2a]

Someone needs to tell pbrower that approval numbers don't mean anything in the 2010's.

First of all, this is ''favorability", which I do not compare to approval.  Favorability is a question of whether people like the pol; approval is whether they like the job that he has been doing.

Approvals  matter. They may not give precise indications of the vote share that a politician will get in a reelection bid, but they say how vulnerable a politician is. Of course different pollsters will get different results, and the same pollster will get some spread in results.

It is obviously much easier to win re-election with an approval rating in the high 40s in a swing state than with an approval rating in the low 40s. Below 40  the chance of winning re-election goes down into degrees of the infinitesimal. Above 50 the chances of a politician losing a bid for  re-election goes into degrees of the infinitesimal.

At this point I see Scott (SC) as a lock even if South Carolina weren't a strong R state -- and Grassley, in a legitimate swing state (IA), a lock based entirely upon polling.  The only question I have about Grassley is his health, in view of his age.

A politician with an approval rating in the mid-40s showed that he could campaign (blatant exception -- an appointed Governor or Senator) and get by. Once one starts making some votes or signing bills that are popular among only 45% of voters, the approval rating of an elected pol goes into the mid-40s. But then comes the campaign, which just about every incumbent must do. But campaigning works well if one has nearly  half of the public approving of one in general to begin with. If approval is around 40%, campaigning might not work.

Toomey barely won in a Republican wave year. Aside from voting as the Right wants him to vote except perhaps on one gun-control issue,  I see little else that he has done well. But one thing is sure: if his approval ratings are consistently above 44% he will win re-election.

He may be in better political shape than John McCain. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I dont see as this poll being such a big deal. If its 14 months out from the election. Toomey hasnt polled over 50 percent and neither has Michael Bennet.

The Dem will collectively work on OH, Pa and CO as those are the bellweathers of the election.

[Xing]

Toomey's favored for now, but unless the Democrats absolutely implode, he won't win by 10.