Will Vitter win the Louisiana Governorship?

[ElectionsGuy]

Since this is now in contention. I will say yes, still. Although the jungle election is a month away, the runoff is still two months away. Ultimately it would be pretty embarrassing if Vitter lost and had to run for re-election to the Senate with the baggage of running for another office while in office. Could you imagine a blue Louisiana on the gubernatorial map? I can't.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

This wasn't even remotely on my radar until a couple days ago, but it does look like Vitter is in very serious danger right now. I still say he wins by a much smaller margin than he should, but if the Republicans continue to nuke each other and just completely ignore Edwards in advance of the jungle primary, and if Edwards can secure at least a non-endorsement from one or both of the vanquished Republicans (or even an outright endorsement), then he quickly becomes favored imo, especially given the somewhat-less viciously partisan atmosphere in an off-year statewide election and extreme unpopularity of the Jindal administration.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, 51.5-48.5 or so.

I'd imagine this is the point where he would lose.

[Skye]

I don't think he'll lose, solely based on Louisiana's Republican tilt. But we've still got a long way to go.

[Figueira]

Probably, but there's a considerable chance that he won't.

[Ebsy]

He's only down by 12 points. Safe R.

[KingSweden]

I voted yes... But it won't be easy.

[JMT]

I still think Vitter and Edwards make it to the Runoff, and due to Louisiana's republican tilt, Vitter will emerge as the winner. However, I think the race will be a lot closer than many expect and the RGA and other outside groups will spend money here to avoid an embarrassing defeat. Pretty surprised that this race is even being talked about, many thought this would be a safe R seat and that Vitter would have this in the bag. I guess it shows Vitter's weakness as a candidate

[windjammer]

He will win by 5 points in the end.

[smoltchanov]

He will win by 5 points in the end.

Yes, that's my estimate too.. That absence of coattails may help Democrats in few competitive state legislative races...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dardienne has a chance to oust Vitter. But Bel Edwards is a better than expected candidate. I hope he wins.

[RFayette]

Vitter will either win or lose this thing, so the poll results should be 100% yes.

But seriously, this is pretty much a pure tossup, so I'd go with that.

[MATTROSE94]

I still think Vitter and Edwards make it to the Runoff, and due to Louisiana's republican tilt, Vitter will emerge as the winner. However, I think the race will be a lot closer than many expect and the RGA and other outside groups will spend money here to avoid an embarrassing defeat. Pretty surprised that this race is even being talked about, many thought this would be a safe R seat and that Vitter would have this in the bag. I guess it shows Vitter's weakness as a candidate

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Anything can happen - look at the governor of Maryland for starters! It depends how generous the national Republcian elite feel about Boby Jindal's future career I guess - it would be ended for good if the legacy of his rule is losing freaking Louisiana, lmao. Maybe they want to keep him as a backup minority, seeing as actually competent minority governors like Sandoval and Martinez wisely want to stick clear of Washington politics.

[Bojack Horseman]

John Bel Edwards is ahead in the polls, and he takes the whole "family values" crap away from Vitter quite well.