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Progressive
jro660
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« Reply #75 on: September 22, 2016, 02:00:11 PM »

Hopefully Kasich gives a good speech.

Is Mitch Daniels expected to give a speech at or near prime time? Or at all?

No, he did not leave his post at Purdue, and, will not be at the convention. But I would imagine he certainly would be interested in serving in a Rice cabinet, should she win.
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Progressive
jro660
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« Reply #76 on: September 23, 2016, 05:25:22 PM »

#RNCinCLE NIGHT THREE - JULY 20, 2016
Making America Stronger at Home and Abroad

Vice Presidential nominee Sen. Cory Gardner delivered his remarks to the RNC tonight in an impassioned speech and delivered a damning indictment of some of Hillary Clinton's vulnerabilities, including her perceived trust and honesty deficit among voters. Clinton campaign observers surely must be considering more 'flavorful' VP choices including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sen. Cory Booker, Sen. Sherrod Brown, etc. after seeing Gardner deliver such a rousing speech.

NOTABLE SPEECHES

Former NYPD Commissioner Ray Kelly portrayed Condi Rice as the candidate of "law and order," and the only candidate running for president who could truly be trusted in moments of national crisis. Kelly referred to Clinton as an "ineffective senator" in the years he served NYC in the NYPD.

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, who has emerged as a top Rice campaign surrogate, described Rice as the "candidate of moms, worried about the safety of their kids" while Hillary Clinton is the candidate of "single city slickers." This controversial statement remained in the news for much of the week.

Former Rep. Allen West gave an extremely fiery and controversial speech about "the dangers of Islam." In his sermonic performance, the former one-term Congressman and Army veteran said that Americans had a choice between "embracing an American future" and "embracing a future in America defined by radical Islam."

9/11 survivors and Benghazi victim family members delivered statements one by one largely condemning Hillary Clinton and focusing little on Rice's actual accomplishments.

OVERALL RECEPTION

This night was arguably received more poorly than the other nights of the convention. Rice, who was holding small-crowd fundraisers in rural and suburban Ohio with Donald Trump, appeared visibly upset at a meeting with senior campaign aides the night before her big speech. "This is supposed to be my strong suit. They went nuts. What happened to Joni? At least Cory did alright..." Rice campaign manager John Weaver cut her off and assured her that Gardner did "superb," and that "the people were hungry for blood, they're angry, understandably so." Somewhat reassured, Rice prepared for her big day.

NEXT POST: RICE ACCEPTS THE NOMINATION; POLLS POLLS POLLS!
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #77 on: September 24, 2016, 06:12:43 PM »

Good update, keep it coming!!
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #78 on: September 25, 2016, 07:55:27 AM »


Loving this TL
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Progressive
jro660
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« Reply #79 on: September 25, 2016, 04:23:36 PM »

NOTE: Thanks for all the compliments on this TL. I'm enjoying it too.

#RNCinCLE NIGHT THREE - JULY 21, 2016
A Future Brighter Than Ever

NOTABLE SPEECHES

Artist Gloria Estefan performed some of her hit songs and gave a stunning speech about how electing Condi Rice would fulfill the promise of her parents who fled Castro's Cuba. Teary eyed, Estefan urged the country to unite behind Rice, and called on Latino voters to embrace the woman who embodies "pure Latino values."

Gov. John Kasich gave a surprisingly upbeat and animated speech with the recurring line "Condi can governor, Clinton can't." Eventually, the crowd began cheering, "Condi Can! Clinton Can't!" #ClintonCant was a trending hashtag on Twitter all night.

Other notable speeches came from Sen. Tim Scott, San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, Milwaukee Co. Sheriff David A. Clarke, Jr., Alex Smith, College Republican National Committee Chair, West Virginia State Del. Saira Blair (age 20), and others.

THE MAIN EVENT



Condi Rice accepted the nomination and delivered an optimistic, almost cheerful speech about the future of America. Rice only mentioned Clinton twice. In the first instance, she chided Clinton for "ethical, moral, political, and personal failures" and toward the end of her speech she labeled Clinton as a "poster child for cynicism and toxic identity politics that threatens to destroy the very promise of our nation."

In her speech, Rice acknowledged her unlikely rise, her unlikely candidacy, her unlikely Republican victory, and what she hoped would be her unlikely election to president of the United States. She added that with such a record, she could create an unprecedented amount of success as president.

Rice thanked her running mate, her family, all of the attendees, Chair Priebus, the convention speakers, and others.

In terms of substance, Rice promised to destroy ISIS, militarize the border while providing a path to citizenship for "some undocumented aliens," lower taxes for those making under $250,000, privatize aspects of the VA, and others promises.

OVERALL RECEPTION

Rice's convention was viewed highly favorably by Republicans, independents, and many Democrats. Among those undecided voters, 40% indicated the convention made them more likely to consider Rice, 11% said they were less likely to vote for Rice, while 49% said it made no impact.

Pundits applauded Rice and her speakers, except for Cruz, for performing well at the convention.

FIRST POST-RNC POLLS!

NATIONAL (CBS News/YouGov): Rice 46%, Clinton 39%, undecided 15% [RICE + 7]
NATIONAL (ABC News/WashPo): Rice 45%, Clinton 40%, undecided 15% [RICE + 5]
NATIONAL (McClatchy/Marist): Rice 46%, Clinton 41%, undecided 16%   [RICE +5]

ARIZONA (PublicPolicyPolling): Rice 45%, Clinton 38%, undecided 17% [RICE + 7]
CALIFORNIA (Insights West): Clinton 52%, Rice 37%, undecided 11% [CLINTON + 15]
COLORADO (PublicPolicyPolling): Clinton 42%, Rice 42%, undecided 16% [TIE]
FLORIDA (CNN/ORC): Rice 45%, Clinton 43%, undecided 12% [RICE + 2]
ILLINOIS (CNN/ORC): Clinton 50%, Rice 37%, undecided 13% [CLINTON + 13]
MINNESOTA (Star Tribune): Clinton 46%, Rice 41%, undecided 13% [CLINTON + 5]
MISSISSIPPI (Fox News): Rice 44%, Clinton 33%, undecided 23% [RICE + 10]
NEW JERSEY (CNN/ORC): Clinton 48%, Rice 42%, undecided 12% [CLINTON + 6]
NEW YORK (Siena): Clinton 52%, Rice 36%, undecided 12% [CLINTON + 16]
OHIO (NBC/WSJ): Rice 45%, Clinton 42%, undecded 13% [RICE + 3]
VIRGINIA (Roanoke): Clinton 45%, Rice 44%, undecided 11% [CLINTON + 1]
WEST VIRGINIA (CNN/ORC): Rice 39%, Clinton 35%, undecided 26% [RICE + 4]

Already there are some fascinating takeaways from the polling. Rice posts big leads nationally, and has made serious gains on a state-by-state basis. Rice is poised to position herself as frontrunner in parts of the Midwest including Ohio, but appears to be struggling in states like West Virginia and Mississippi.

NEXT POST: CLINTON'S VP ANNOUNCEMENT/SUMMARY OF THE REMAINDER OF SUMMER 2016
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #80 on: September 25, 2016, 09:20:46 PM »

Keep it up! So awesome.
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Progressive
jro660
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« Reply #81 on: September 27, 2016, 08:40:51 PM »
« Edited: September 27, 2016, 08:50:28 PM by Progressive »

THE SIZZLE OF SUMMER 2016
Update on Rest of July and August 2016

HILLARY VP CHOICE + CONVENTION


In a somewhat unexpected move, Hillary Clinton chose New Jersey's junior senator, Cory Booker, to serve as her vice presidential candidate. Insiders insist that Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine has been the prohibitive choice for almost the entire VP search process, until the GOP Convention. A source close to the DNC stated on background that Clinton and her campaign were so unnerved by the success of the Rice convention that they decided to cut Kaine from the list almost instantly, circling back to Cory Booker, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, or Sec. Tom Perez. According to rumors, Bill Clinton felt that Perez was the best option, while Hillary and Chelsea thought that Cory Booker would do best in assisting Hillary with young voters and black voters who might consider Condi Rice based on shared experiences.

Overall, the Clinton convention was successful, but rather conventional. President Obama, Michelle Obama, Sen. Warren, Sen. Sanders and others delivered powerful endorsements and relatively successfully defined Condi Rice as a third term of George W. Bush. Critics assert that voter memories are short, and that that line would not have the same effect it had in 2008.

WIKILEAKS SCANDAL

Days before the Democratic convention, Julian Assange and his Wikileaks organization "leaked" stolen information from DNC computers suggesting favoritism and possible collusion between the Clinton campaign and the DNC. This led to embarrassing protests at the DNC and some heckling of speakers.

The Rice campaign seized on this moment. Businessman Donald Trump tweeted messages with the hashtag #CorruptHillary and #CrookedHillary. Trump had become a magnet on the campaign trail, and, despite requests for a light schedule, was holding events nearly everyday for Rice, the party, or other GOP candidates.

Overall, the scandal mainly had an affect on trustworthiness among younger voters. Cory Booker, while helping bridge this gap, has not sealed the deal with millennials, many of whom remain undecided. Further, the resignation of DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz has scarred was was a generally successful convention.

THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES

Former Gov. Gary Johnson and activist Jill Stein have each been polling in the low single digits, generally with little effect on the race, though polls suggest that some Bernie Sanders supporters have rallied around Johnson and Stein.

CAMPAIGN DEVELOPMENTS

Despite Rice's success on the campaign trail, Clinton continues to out-raise Rice, though Super PACs backing Rice have raised 5-1 more money than have those backing Clinton. By August 2016, the Clinton campaign had raised $500.3 million (donors + PAC), while the Rice campaign has raised $405.5 million.

Rice doubled-down on her pledge to end illegal immigration by militarizing the border and "leaving on the table plans to deport illegals," while Clinton has pledged to "not break up families and only deport those who have committed crimes." Rice's populist message on illegal immigration has shown signs of success in the Midwest, as polling below proves. But in the West, and in locales with large Latino populations, Rice is actually performing on-par to Mitt Romney, despite, on paper, being a more competent and relatable candidate.

Rice has pledged to "expand the map" for herself and other Republicans this year. Her campaign has placed a laser focus on Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia. If Rice were to win all of these states (+ traditional GOP states), she would hit 270 electoral votes as a baseline for victory. Her campaign has also placed targeted victory emphasis on Colorado, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Interestingly, the campaign's tertiary focus, expanding the map, called for resources
in Connecticut, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Maine's 2nd Congressional district.

Meanwhile, the Clinton campaign was laser focused on defending Obama 2012 states, especially the coalition of Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico in the West.

NOTABLE POLLING
Aggregate Polling by end of August 2016

RICE FAVORABILITY:          47% FAVORABLE - 43% UNFAVORABLE - 10% UNDECIDED
CLINTON FAVORABILITY:    41% FAVORABLE - 52% UNFAVORABLE - 7% UNDECIDED
NATIONAL OVERALL:         43% CLINTON - 47% CLINTON - 10% UNDECIDED
NATIONAL BLACK VOTE:    80% CLINTON - 10% RICE - 10% UNDECIDED
NATIONAL LATINO VOTE:   61% CLINTON - 24% RICE - 15% UNDECIDED
NATIONAL WHITE VOTE:    37% CLINTON - 53% RICE - 10% UNDECIDED
NATIONAL 18-39:              50% CLINTON - 38% RICE - 12% UNDECIDED
*Note: please request a demographic if you don't see it listed*

ARIZONA: RICE 48% - CLINTON 40% (Rice + 8 )
ARKANSAS: RICE 50% - CLINTON 31% (Rice + 19)
COLORADO: CLINTON 46% - RICE 44% (Clinton + 2)
CONNECTICUT: CLINTON 50% - RICE 40% (Clinton + 10)
FLORIDA: RICE 46% - CLINTON 44% (Rice + 2)
ILLINOIS: CLINTON 52% - RICE 40% (Clinton + 12)
INDIANA: RICE 50% - CLINTON 41% (Rice + 9)
IOWA: CLINTON 46% - RICE 45% (Clinton + 1)
KENTUCKY: RICE 49% - CLINTON 41% (Rice + 8 )
MAINE: CLINTON 49% - RICE 42% (Clinton + 7)
MASSACHUSETTS: CLINTON 53% - Rice 40% (Clinton + 13)
MICHIGAN: CLINTON 47% - RICE 43% (Clinton + 4)
MINNESOTA: CLINTON 48% - RICE 44% (Clinton + 4)
MISSOURI: RICE 51% - CLINTON 39% (Rice + 12)
MONTANA: RICE 52% - CLINTON 38% (Rice + 14)
NEVADA: CLINTON 47% - RICE 42% (Clinton + 5)
NEW HAMPSHIRE: RICE 45% - CLINTON 45% (TIE)
NEW JERSEY: CLINTON 50% - CLINTON 42% (Clinton + 8 )
NEW MEXICO: CLINTON 51% - RICE 41% (Clinton + 10)
NEW YORK: CLINTON 54% - RICE 35% (Clinton + 19)
NORTH CAROLINA: RICE 48% - CLINTON 44% (Rice + 4)
OHIO: RICE 47% - CLINTON 44% (Rice + 3)
PENNSYLVANIA: CLINTON 47% - RICE 45% (Clinton + 2)
TEXAS: RICE 53% - CLINTON 36% (Rice + 17)
VIRGINIA: CLINTON 46% - RICE 44% (Clinton + 2)
WEST VIRGINIA: RICE 47% - CLINTON 39% (Rice + 8 )
WISCONSIN: CLINTON 47% - RICE 45% (Clinton +2)


197 DEM
191 GOP
All tossups here are <5% either candidate. Still, Clinton has the electoral vote edge, as many of these states still lean Clinton.

NEXT POST: FIRST DEBATE!!!!
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Progressive
jro660
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« Reply #82 on: September 30, 2016, 05:00:19 PM »
« Edited: October 01, 2016, 06:30:01 PM by Progressive »

NOTE: This is the second to last past before Election Night begins. The next post will be a night-before-Election Day preview, including some hot congressional and gubernatorial races.

FALL 2016: THE SHOWDOWNS
September and October 2016

DEBATE #1: Hofstra University - September 26, 2016


The first presidential debate was unexpectedly combative and both candidates showed an unprecedented level of raw emotion and grit.

One exchange that took place early on involved Rice combatively stating that "Hillary Clinton breaks everything she touches. A lackluster career in the Senate. A poster child for the failed Obama doctrine. And the trust of the American people" to which Clinton responded "that's tough talk Condi for someone who was the architect of the biggest foreign policy blunder in American history," to which Condi replied, "couldn't have done it without your unwavering funding, Hillary!"

Another exchange involved Rice and Clinton's position on Planned Parenthood. Moderator Lester Holt asked both candidates if they would continue supporting Planned Parenthood. Clinton responded "yes, Lester, unequivocally yes," and Rice responded, "No [to boos in the audience], and, Lester, and here's why. Women's issues should not be defined by abortion and I have a plan to open up accountable, real public health clinics called Families First that will replace funding for the embattled Planned Parenthood."

Overall, the debate was considered a net win for Clinton. Virtually all legitimate polling conducted about the winner of the debate showed Clinton as the clear winner with a small but statistically significant lead. For example, CNN showed that 45% of undecided voters felt that Clinton won, 35% felt that Rice won, 16% said it was a tie, and 4% were unsure.

VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE: Longwood University - October 4, 2016

The Two Cory's battled out in a highly watched debate that largely focused on defeating ISIS, repairing the economy, fixing the immigration system, and addressing climate change.

Cory Booker doubled down attacks on Condi Rice and Cory Gardner as "climate deniers" and accused Gardner of being "dangerously and embarrassingly out of touch with the scientific community." Cory Gardner accused Cory Booker of being complicit with the "Democrat political elite" in blocking out Bernie Sanders nomination and covering up for "[Booker's] boss' ethical lapses."

Overall, surveys indicated a tie.

DEBATE #2: Washington University, St. Louis - October 9, 2016

Cognizant of her shortcomings in the first presidential debate, Condi Rice appeared determined and ready to take on her rival.

Rice doubled down on her pledge to instate a Families First program to supplant Planned Parenthood. "Hillary, you, and your political elite cronies like to box women. You box women issues in as 'abortion on demand' voters, well look, Hillary, I met Juana, a single mother of five boys, each of whom has Down Syndrome, in Las Vegas last week. Juana told me she loves each of these children and is grateful for the support she's had from her friends, family, employer, and government to care for these children. Families First will be a holistic family care clinic. You know it, I know it, and the American people know it." In her rebuttal, Clinton criticized Rice for "promulgating dangerous, right wing lies. Shame on you Condi."

Rice also criticized Clinton for Obama calling ISIS "the JV team."

Clinton appeared on the defensive for much of the debate, and polls/observers suggested that Condi Rice won the debate.

FINAL DEBATES: October 19/25, 2016

Remarkably little has changed in the final two debates. Clinton and Rice remained poised but combative, knowledgable but armed with one-liners. Fascinatingly, polls suggested a dead-heat in terms of debate winner after both debates.

NEXT POST: Final summary of emerging last minute campaign issues, polling, and MORE.
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Progressive
jro660
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« Reply #83 on: October 02, 2016, 06:43:57 PM »

NOTE: Thank you all for the amazing comments on this thread and inbox messages I have gotten regarding this timeline. It's encouraging to see that people have enjoyed this timeline, since I have really enjoyed writing it. 

PROGRAMMING NOTE: The subsequent posts will be 'live' election night coverage and will emulate real-time TV news coverage of the election. For example, if state X closes at 8:00pm, but is a tight-as-a-tick swing state, I will call the state during the 9:00pm-10:00pm post if the state were to be called at 9:47pm, for example.

DOWN TO THE WIRE
November 7, 2016: The Night Before - An Election Eve Primer

Polling

While Condi Rice led for much of the campaign, a series of strong debate performances and clever retorts against Condi Rice's stances on Planned Parenthood and immigration shaved some of Rice's lead. Still, for the entirety of the campaign, Clinton's favorability rating was substantially lower than Rice's. National and state-by-state polling showed that while Clinton was able to unite most of the Obama-vote coalition, there has been small but notable drops in support among Latinos, black voters especially in the South, and college-educated women in urban suburbs, i.e. outside of Philadelphia.

Gary Johnson and Jill Stein have seen stronger support in polling than they did in 2012, but likely not significant enough to sway the outcome in 2016. Rice has seen a loss in support in western states and in urban areas from "white voters, conservatives, and Republicans" who oppose military intervention. Despite Rand Paul's best efforts, Johnson appeared to be tapping into these voters. Similarly, Jill Stein polled best among young, liberal voters in rural states where Bernie Sanders performed well, including Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and western states.

FINAL NATIONAL POLLING AVERAGE 

Rice 46.9% - Clinton 46.2% - Johnson 3.1% - Stein 2.0% - undecided 1.8%

STATE BY STATE FINAL POLLING AVERAGE [including final poll per state]

SAFE CLINTON 9% margin for Clinton or higher
California [Clinton 53% - Rice 40% - Stein 3% - Johnson 2% - undecided 2%]
Connecticut [Clinton 52% - Rice 43% - Stein 2% - Johnson 0% - undecided 3%]
Delaware [Clinton 55% - Rice 39% - Johnson 2% - Stein 1% - undecided 3%]
Hawaii [Clinton 54% - Rice 41% - Johnson 2% - Stein 2% - undecided 1%]
Illinois [Clinton 53% - Rice 42% - Johnson 2% - Stein 1% - undecided 2%]
Maryland [Clinton 56% - Rice 36% - Johnson 2% - Stein 2% - undecided 4%]
Massachusetts [Clinton 55% - Rice 33% - Stein 5% - Johnson 4% - undecided 3%]
New Jersey [Clinton 53% - Rice 43% - Johnson 2% - Stein 0% - undecided 2%]
New York [Clinton 56% - Rice 38% - Johnson 1% - Stein 1% - undecided 4%]
Rhode Island [Clinton 54% - Rice 39% - Stein 2% - Johnson 2% - undecided 5%]
Vermont [Clinton 55% - Rice 30% - Johnson 8% - Stein 7% - undecided 0%]
Washington [Clinton 54% - Rice 40% - Stein 3% - Johnson 2% - undecided 1%]
Washington, D.C. [Clinton 76% - Rice 11% - Johnson 6% - Stein 5% - undecided 4%]


LIKELY CLINTON 5%-9% margin for Clinton
Maine [Clinton 49% - Rice 42% - Johnson 4% - Stein 2% - undecided 3%]
Minnesota [Clinton 48% - Rice 43% - Johnson 3% - Stein 1%  - undecided 5%]
New Mexico [Clinton 48% - Rice 40% - Johnson 10% - Stein 0% - undecided 2%]
Nevada [Clinton 48% - Rice 42% - Johnson 6% - Stein 1% - undecided 3%]

LEAN CLINTON 3%-5% margin for Clinton
Michigan [Clinton 49% - Rice 46% - Johnson 1% - Stein 0% - undecided 4%]

TOSSUP Purple heart% margin for either candidate
Colorado [Clinton +0.9%]
Florida [Rice +2.8%]
Iowa [Rice +0.4%]
New Hampshire [Clinton +0.5%]
Ohio [Rice +2.5%]
Pennsylvania [Clinton +2.9%]
Virginia [pure tie]
Wisconsin [pure tie]

STRONG RICE 9% margin for Rice or higher
Alabama [Rice 60% - Clinton 35% -Johnson 1% - Stein 0% - undecided 4%]
Alaska [Rice 52% - Clinton 35% - Johnson 6% - Stein 0% - undecided 7%]
Arkansas [Rice 56% - Clinton 40% - Johnson 0% - Stein 0% - undecided 4%]
Idaho [Rice 54% - Clinton 30% - Johnson 8% - Stein 1% - undecided 7%]
Indiana [Rice 54% - Clinton 43% - Johnson 1% - Stein 0% - undecided 2%]
Kansas [Rice 60% - Clinton 33% - Johnson 3% - Stein 1% - undecided 3%]
Kentucky [Rice 51% - Clinton 40% - Johnson 5% - Stein 0% - undecided 4%]
Louisiana [Rice 57% - Clinton 37% - Johnson 2% - Stein 0% - undecided 4%]
Mississippi [Rice 59% - Clinton 36% - Johnson 1% - Stein 0% - undecided 4%]
Missouri [Rice 52% - Clinton 42% - Johnson 2% - Stein 1% - undecided 3%]
Montana [Rice 50% - Clinton 37% - Johnson 9% - Stein 2% - undecided 2%]
Nebraska [Rice 54% - Clinton 41% - Johnson 2% - Stein 0% - undecided 3%]
North Dakota [Rice 52% - Clinton 36% - Johnson 8% - Stein 0% - undecided 4%]
Oklahoma [Rice 61% - Clinton 32% - Johnson 3% - Stein 0% - undecided 4%]
South Carolina [Rice 55% - Clinton 42% - Johnson 1% - Stein 0% - undecided 2%]
South Dakota [Rice 58% - Clinton 32% - Johnson 5% - Stein 1% - undecided 4%]
Tennessee  [Rice 59% - Clinton 36% - Johnson 1% - Stein 0% - undecided 4%]
Texas [Rice 56% - Clinton 39% - Johnson 3% - Stein 0% - undecided 2%]
Utah [Rice 65% - Clinton 33% - Johnson 1% - Stein 0% - undecided 1%]
West Virginia [Rice 50% - Clinton 34% - Johnson 10% - Stein 0% - undecided 6%]
Wyoming [Rice 58% - Clinton 32% - Johnson 5% - Stein 1% - undecided 4%]

LIKELY RICE 5%-9% margin for Rice
Arizona [Rice 49% - Clinton 43% - Johnson 5% - Stein 1% - undecided 2%]
Georgia [Rice 52% - Clinton 43% - Johnson 1% - Stein 0% - undecided 4%]
North Carolina [Rice 50% - Clinton 45% - Johnson 1% - Stein 1% - undecided 3%]

NO LEANS FOR RICE



RACE IS TOO CLOSE TO PREDICT!
CLINTON 223
RICE 206
TOSSUP 109

Senate Forecast



NEXT POST IS ELECTION TIME! GET READY!
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Progressive
jro660
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« Reply #84 on: October 03, 2016, 04:00:29 PM »

BTW, if anyone has any interesting Election Day/Night "wrenches" to throw in, feel free to message me with ideas.
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Progressive
jro660
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« Reply #85 on: October 03, 2016, 07:46:07 PM »

ELECTION NIGHT 2016
6:00pm-7:00pm


6:00PM UPDATE

WOLF BLITZER: Good evening and welcome to election night 2016, where Americans across the country will decide the president, senate, House of Representatives, governors, local offices, and a slew of important ballot questions tonight. The time is now 6:00pm and we're going to turn to Chief National Correspondent John King at the election board to talk to us about the numbers rolling in the bottom of your screen. Good evening, John!

JOHN KING: Good evening Wolf the time is not 6:05pm on the east coast and numbers are rolling in from parts of Kentucky and Indiana where polls have closed. Condi Rice appears to have very strong strong support with big leads in both states. She currently leads Indiana with 60% of the vote with 14% of the vote in Indiana, and with about 9% of the vote in Kentucky, Rice leads Clinton 54% to 41%. Interestingly, Clinton appears to be over performing in Kentucky, based on our current results.

WOLF BLITZER: Thanks John, and updates on key Senate races?

JOHN KING: Well Wolf we're looking at a key battleground Senate race in Indiana right now where former Senator Evan Bayh, attempting to make a comeback, currently trails Representative Todd Young 52% to 47%, we'll see what the remainder of the state brings us Wolf as polls close at 7:00pm. Meanwhile Senator Rand Paul appears headed for re-election in Kentucky, where all polls also close at 7:00pm.

6:58PM UPDATE


JOHN KING: [tossed back from Dana Bash] We're about to take it to Wolf Blitzer where we expect to make a projection in two states for the presidential race, one Senate race, and, and that appears to be it. It looks like the governor and senate race in Indiana will be closely watched tonight, here's Wolf

WOLF BLITZER: Thanks John, stand by, we're about to make our first projections of the evening for a number of states.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT POST: 7:00PM POLL CLOSINGS (VT, VA, SC, GA, IN, KY, MUCH OF FL, MUCH OF NH)

PS: Do you all like this narrative format or should I go back to the previous format where I give more of a detailed analysis as opposed to a news report?


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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #86 on: October 05, 2016, 01:11:59 PM »

I like it... but then again, I'm a Wolf Blitzer fan.
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Progressive
jro660
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« Reply #87 on: October 05, 2016, 09:01:33 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2016, 09:22:24 PM by Progressive »

ELECTION NIGHT 2016
7:00pm-8:00pm


7:00 PM

Election Night coverage with Rachel Maddow, Joy Reid, Chris Matthews, and Brian Williams.

BRIAN WILLIAMS: And the time is now 7:00pm on the east coast, we have polls closing in six states and we are going to hand it now to Rachel Maddow to make these calls, Rachel what can you tell us.

RACHEL MADDOW: Brian a lot to get to tonight.

VERMONT (3)

RACHEL MADDOW: In the great state of Vermont we can declare that Hillary Clinton will win the state and all of its three electoral votes. Clinton has a strong lead but we can determine at this point that third party candidates will have double-digit showings in the state tonight.  We can also declare incumbent Sen. Patrick Leahy the winner in this state. Joy, what can you tell us about the competitive gubernatorial race?

JOY REID: Rachel the gubernatorial race in Vermont is too close to call at this point. I want to bring a fascinating point up for a second. Presidential turnout was 61% in Vermont, but 10% of voters did not vote in the governor race...that's right, just 51% of Vermont voters cast a vote for governor. We'll see what happens but Republican Lt. Gov. Phil Scott leads Democrat Sue Minter by several hundred votes at this point.

CHRIS MATTHEWS: Wow, wow.

PRESIDENT: CALLED CLINTON
SENATE: CALLED LEAHY
GOVERNOR: NOT CALLED - TOO CLOSE TO CALL/slight GOP lead

INDIANA (11)

MADDOW: In the great state of Indiana, Condi Rice will take her first victory of the night in Indiana, with 11 electoral votes.

MATTHEWS: Fascinating governor race there and fascinating Senate race too. Incumbent governor Mike Pence appears to be in the fight of his political life against Democratic politician Judd Gregg. Former Senator Evan Bayh is looking to make a political comeback tonight too. So far, Pence is in a slight lead as is Bayh, the Democrat, but both races are too close to call.

PRESIDENT: CALLED RICE
SENATE: NOT CALLED - TOO CLOSE TO CALL
GOVERNOR: NOT CALLED - TOO CLOSE TO CALL

KENTUCKY ( 8 )

MADDOW: Rice will also claim victory in the state of Kentucky, and along with her, Rand Paul will be playing bluegrass tonight, as the former presidential candidate and top surrogate for Rice has won his re-election.

PRESIDENT: CALLED RICE
SENATE: CALLED PAUL

GEORGIA (16)

MATTHEWS: This is interesting

MADDOW: This is interesting indeed, Chris, Georgia is too EARLY to call, remember the distinction, it is not necessarily too close but it is too early. We do know that incumbent Republican senator Isakson has won reelection

PRESIDENT: NOT CALLED - TOO EARLY TO CALL
SENATE: CALLED ISAKSON

SOUTH CAROLINA (9)

MADDOW: In the state of South Carolina, Condi Rice will be able to claim victory to its 9 electoral votes, and Tim Scott, the incumbent senator will also be able to rest easy tonight. One thing to note, exit polls have shown that despite being an African American woman at the top of the ticket, Condi Rice has only performed slightly better than previous GOP candidates in African American parts of South Carolina.

PRESIDENT: CALLED RICE
SENATE: CALLED ISAKSON

VIRGINIA (13)

MADDOW: And in the state of Virginia, and this is a big one folks, it is too close to call but, with 16% of the vote in, Condi Rice has a substantial lead of 60% to 36% of the vote, keeping in mind most of this vote is from conservative parts of the state. Nonetheless, too close to call indeed.

MATTHEWS: Interesting

NEW HAMPSHIRE (4)

MADDOW: And finally in the great state of New Hampshire, we can also say that there is nothing we can say!--as in, it is too close to call, but, not just in the presidential race. It is too close to call for the competitive Senate and competitive gubernatorial race as well. We can say however that Clinton is in the lead in the presidential race here, and Ayotte and Sununu, the Republicans, are in the lead, slightly, in their respective races.

REID: That's an interesting one Rachel where we might see some vote splitting going on.

PRESIDENT: NOT CALLED - TOO CLOSE TO CALL
SENATE: NOT CALLED - TOO CLOSE TO CALL
GOVERNOR: NOT CALLED - TOO CLOSE TO CALL

7:34PM UPDATE: GEORGIA CALLED FOR RICE

7:57PM UPDATE: NEW HAMPSHIRE GOVERNOR RACE CALLED FOR SUNUNU

7:59PM FORECASTS: VERMONT GOVERNOR RACE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO TURN REPUBLICAN; CLINTON, AYOTTE LEAD IN NH



RICE - 44
CLINTON - 3

NEXT UP: 7:30 PM AND 8:00PM MORE STATES CALLED; INTERESTING GOVERNOR/SENATE DEVELOPMENTS
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« Reply #88 on: October 07, 2016, 11:27:05 AM »

Any thoughts on the Election Night format? Or, of course, on Election Night itself?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #89 on: October 07, 2016, 12:22:09 PM »

If you'd like, I could send you a list of potential Cabinet members. If you would like me to, I'll send Rice's in for now, and I'll send Hillary's possibilities if she wins.
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« Reply #90 on: October 08, 2016, 04:32:45 PM »

ELECTION NIGHT 2016
7:30pm UPDATE and 8:00pm-9:00pm COVERAGE


7:30 PM

WEST VIRGINIA (5)

West Virginia was called instantly for Condi Rice, with its 5 electoral votes going to the Republican nominee for president. Despite the fact that Rice was nearing 60% of the vote, with only 5% of precincts reporting, networks called the West Virginia governor race for cole magnate Jim Justice, a conservative Democrat

PRESIDENT: CALLED RICE
GOVERNOR: CALLED JUSTICE

OHIO (18)

Ohio was categorized as "too close to call," by 7:30pm. Exit polls showed that Condi Rice was performing very well in suburban communities across the state, but turnout was very high in cities and college towns, undoubtedly helping Clinton. Meanwhile, the once-competitive Ohio Senate race was called instantly for incumbent Senator Rob Portman, the Republican, in the first truly disappointing moment of the campaign for Democrats.

PRESIDENT: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
SENATE: CALLED PORTMAN

NORTH CAROLINA (15)

North Carolina was deemed "too early to call," as few precincts were in, besides early voting precincts that had Clinton up big. The Senate race is North Carolina was deemed too close to call, as was the North Carolina governor race.

PRESIDENT: TOO EARLY TO CALL
SENATE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
GOVERNOR: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

8:00PM (trying a new format)

8:01PM UPDATE: Presidential race CALLED for CLINTON in  D.C., Delaware, Illinois, Maine (3/4 electoral votes), Maryland, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

Presidential race CALLED for RICE in Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.

Senate race CALLED for BLUMENTHAL in Connecticut, VAN HOLLEN in Maryland, LANKFORD in Oklahoma, and Governor race CALLED for CARNEY in Delaware

Presidential race TOO CLOSE TO CALL in Pennsylvania and Florida, but Clinton and Rice are leading in those states respectively. Meanwhile it is TOO EARLY TO CALL in New Jersey and Connecticut.

8:09PM UPDATE: Presidential race CALLED for CLINTON in New Jersey

8:12PM UPDATE: Presidential race CALLED for CLINTON in Connecticut.

New Hampshire Governor Race CALLED for SUNUNU

8:16PM UPDATE: Governor race in Indiana CALLED for PENCE, though the Senate race is still too close to call.

8:29PM UPDATE: Governor races in Missouri CALLED for KOSTER and Vermont for SCOTT. Koster was expected to win this competitive race, but losing the Vermont governor race is another big embarrassment tonight for Democrats.

8:50PM UPDATE: Presidential race in North Carolina CALLED for RICE

8:52PM UPDATE: With 55% of the vote in Virginia, Rice leads Clinton 52% to 45%. Much of northern Virginia has not come in, however.

In Ohio, with 33% of the vote in, Rice leads Clinton 50% to 46%.

In New Hampshire, with 64% of the vote in, Clinton leads Rice 47% to 43%. Governor Maggie Hassan, the Democratic nominee for Senate, leads Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte 48% to 47%.

In Pennsylvania, with 21% of the vote in, Clinton leads Rice 51% to 47%, while Democratic Senate candidate Katie McGinty and Senator Pat Toomey are tied at 50%. McGinty leads by a few hundred votes.

8:54PM UPDATE: Senate race CALLED for BLUNT in Missouri, dealing a blow to a Democratic Senate hopeful who had a chance of winning the seat.

8:58 PM UPDATE: Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth is projected the winner of the Illinois U.S. Senate race against Republican incumbent Mark Kirk, giving the Democrats their first big relief of the evening.

ALL MAINE ELECTORAL VOTES ARE DECLARED FOR CLINTON



By 8:59PM, the Electoral Vote count is as follows:

RICE                 94
CLINTON           79
UNPROJECTED   84
STILL VOTING   281
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« Reply #91 on: October 09, 2016, 09:00:15 AM »

ELECTION NIGHT 2016
9:00 PM - 10:00 PM COVERAGE


8:30PM UPDATE: Condi Rice is the projected winner in Arkansas (6) , and John Boozman wins re-election to Senate.

9:00PM UPDATE: Clinton wins New York, Rice wins Kansas (6), Louisiana ( 8 ), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Texas (38), and Wyoming (3).

It is considered too close to call in Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan and too early to call in Arizona and New Mexico.

Meanwhile, Schumer wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in New York (29)

9:09PM UPDATE: Condi Rice is declared the winner in Arizona (11)

9:17PM UPDATE: John McCain wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Arizona.

9:26PM UPDATE: **SWING STATE ALERT** Hillary Clinton wins New Hampshire (4), in a big win for Clinton tonight. The Senate race is still too close to call.

9:33PM UPDATE: Hillary Clinton wins New Mexico (5).

9:39PM UPDATE: North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper has defeated incumbent Republican Pat McCrory,in what considered a blow to the conservative, religious right, and a sign that voters are willing to split the vote.

9:45PM UPDATE: Richard Burr has won re-election to the U.S. Senate in North Carolina, fending off a strong challenge from his Democratic challenger.

9:48PM UPDATE: The projections are rolling in now! Colorado Senator Michael Bennet has beaten back a challenge by Republican Darryl Glen.

9:49PM UPDATE: The Indiana race remains too close to call, Evan Bayh leads Todd Young by 14 votes.

9:51PM UPDATE: Hillary Clinton has won the presidential race in Minnesota (10) as well as the presidential race in Michigan (16).

9:54PM UPDATE: Big news for a formal presidential candidate! Marco Rubio has won re-election despite a tremendous challenge from Congressman Patrick Murphy.

Rice leads in Florida 50% to 47% with 89% of the vote now counted.

9:58PM UPDATE: Pennsylvania (20) will go to Hillary Clinton, in another big win for the Democrat tonight. Meanwhile, Democrat Katie McGinty leads Pat Toomey 52% to 47% in the Pennsylvania senate race.



ELECTORAL VOTE COUNT
RICE:       173
CLINTON: 143
UNPROJECTED: 99
STILL VOTING: 123

Analysis Through 9:59PM

This is shaping up to be a strong night for Republicans, with a few exceptions. Condi Rice kept Arizona and North Carolina far from the reach of Democrats, and maintains leads in virtually all swing states unprojected except for Pennsylvania. National exit polls show that Rice is doing better than Romney and McCain did among African Americans, Latinos, Asians, women, and young voters.
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« Reply #92 on: October 14, 2016, 05:16:11 PM »

New update coming soon...will include final election results...stay tuned!
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« Reply #93 on: October 15, 2016, 08:00:03 AM »

Nice!!!
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« Reply #94 on: October 15, 2016, 05:11:18 PM »

NOTE: For purposes of making this TL more succinct, detailed, and high-quality, I am providing the final election day results for all 50 states on a presidential level, and key Senate and Governor races.

ELECTION NIGHT 2016
FINAL RESULTS

MADAME PRESIDENT

RICE        272
CLINTON 266

PRESIDENT

ALABAMA                     ALASKA
Rice        60%             Rice     57%
Clinton    38%             Clinton 38%
Other      2%               Other    5%

ARIZONA                      ARKANSAS
Rice        50%              Rice     56%
Clinton    44%              Clinton 42%
Other      6%               Other    2%

CALIFORNIA                  COLORADO
Clinton    57%              Clinton  48%
Rice        37%              Rice      47%
Other      6%                Other    5%

CONNECTICUT               DELAWARE
Clinton    55%              Clinton   56%
Rice        43%              Rice       42%
Other       2%               Other     2%

D.C.                              FLORIDA
Clinton      86%             Rice      50%
Rice           9%              Clinton  48%
Other        5%               Other     2%

GEORGIA                       HAWAII
Rice         54%              Clinton  65%
Clinton     44%              Rice      30%
Other        2%               Other    5%

IDAHO                            ILLINOIS
Rice         60%               Clinton  55%
Clinton     33%               Rice      43%
Other       7%                 Other     2%

INDIANA                          IOWA
Rice         57%               Rice      50%
Clinton     41%               Clinton  49%
Other        2%                Other    1%

KANSAS                            KENTUCKY
Rice         60%               Rice       60%
Clinton     37%               Clinton   35%
Other        3%                Other      5%

LOUISIANA                        MAINE
Rice         59%               Clinton    53%
Clinton     39%               Rice        43%
Other       2%                 Other      4%

MARYLAND                         MASSACHUSETTS
Clinton     62%               Clinton    56%
Rice         37%               Rice        39%
Other       1%                 Other       5%

MICHIGAN                           MINNESOTA
Clinton     51%               Clinton     50%
Rice         47%               Rice         47%
Other        2%                Other       3%

MISSISSIPPI                        MISSOURI
Rice           58%              Rice         55%
Clinton       40%              Clinton     44%
Other          2%               Other        1%

MONTANA                             NEBRASKA
Rice            55%              Rice        58%
Clinton        38%              Clinton    37%
Other          7%                Other      5%

NEVADA                                NEW HAMPSHIRE
Clinton         50%             Clinton    46%
Rice             47%             Rice        45%
Other           3%               Other      9%

NEW JERSEY                          NEW MEXICO
Clinton         58%              Clinton   51%
Rice             41%              Rice       37%
Other           1%                Other     12%

NEW YORK                             NORTH CAROLINA
Clinton         59%              Rice        52%
Rice             39%              Clinton    47%
Other            2%               Other       1%

NORTH DAKOTA                      OHIO
Rice              57%             Rice         50%
Clinton          38%             Clinton     48%
Other             5%              Other        2%

OKLAHOMA                             OREGON
Rice               65%             Clinton     53%
Clinton           33%             Rice         42%
Other             2%               Other        5%

PENNSYLVANIA                        RHODE ISLAND
Clinton           51%             Clinton     60%
Rice               48%             Rice         35%
Other              1%             Other        5%

SOUTH CAROLINA                     SOUTH DAKOTA
Rice                56%             Rice         56%
Clinton            43%             Clinton     37%
Other              1%               Other        7%

TENNESSEE                              TEXAS
Rice                59%              Rice        55%
Clinton            40%              Clinton    41%
Other              1%                Other       4%

UTAH                                        VERMONT
Rice                76%              Clinton     58%     
Clinton            20%              Rice         30%
Other              4%                Other       12%

VIRGINIA                                  WASHINGTON
Rice                 49%              Clinton    56%
Clinton             49%              Rice        39%
Other               2%                Other       5%

WEST VIRGINIA                         WISCONSIN
Rice                 58%              Clinton     51%
Clinton             37%              Rice         48%
Other                5%               Other       1%

WYOMING
Rice                 66%
Clinton             29%
Other                5%

NEXT UP: Key Governor and Senate Races as well as an analysis of the 2016 election. I will also be asking people's opinion as to whether I should keep this through a Rice presidency, or move on to a new TL.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #95 on: October 16, 2016, 03:59:17 PM »

This has been an interesting scenario (and one I prefer to what we got in the real world.)

I think it might be cool to see some follow-ups (What happens to Gardner's Senate seat? Who gets cabinet posts in a Rice administration? What are her first policies and challenges?)
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NHI
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« Reply #96 on: October 16, 2016, 04:37:15 PM »

Great TL!
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« Reply #97 on: October 16, 2016, 06:20:37 PM »

ELECTION NIGHT 2016
KEY SENATE AND GUBERNATORIAL RESULTS

ARIZONA

SENATE

John McCain*  (R)         54%
Ann Kirkpatrick (D)          46%

CALIFORNIA

SENATE

Kamala Harris    (D)           57%
Loretta Sanchez (D)              43%

COLORADO

SENATE

Michael Bennet*     (D)    52%
Darryl Glenn (R)               43%

FLORIDA

Marco Rubio*    (R)          53%
Patrick Murphy                  47%

ILLINOIS

SENATE

Tammy Duckworth  (D)         53% +1 DEM
Mark Kirk* (R)                          45%

INDIANA

SENATE 

Evan Bayh (D)    50%  [UP BY ONLY 93 VOTES--RECOUNT]!
Todd Young (R)   50%

GOVERNOR

Mike Pence* (R)    53%
John Gregg (D)         46%

MISSOURI
Roy Blunt* (R)       52%
Jason Kander (D)       46%

NORTH CAROLINA

SENATE

Richard Burr* (R)   53%
Deborah Ross  (D)      45%

GOVERNOR

Roy Cooper (D)      50% +1 DEM GOV
Pat McCrory* (R)       49%

NEW HAMPSHIRE

SENATE

Maggie Hassan (D)    51% +1 DEM
Kelly Ayotte* (R)           48%

GOVERNOR

Chris Sununu (R)           50%
Colin Van Ostern (D)  49%

NEVADA

SENATE

Joe Heck (R)                    49% +1 GOP
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 49%

OHIO

SENATE

Rob Portman* (R)        55%
Ted Strickland (D)           43%

OREGON

GOVERNOR

Kate Brown* (D)         53%
Bud Pierce (R)               43%

PENNSYLVANIA

SENATE

Pat Toomey* (R)       50%
Katie McGinty (D)          49%

VERMONT

GOVERNOR

Phil Scott (R)              48% +1 GOP GOV
Sue Minter (D)              47%

WISCONSIN

SENATE

Russ Feingold (D)        52% +1 DEM
Ron Johnson* (R)           46%

BALANCE OF THE SENATE
52 REPUBLICAN SENATORS
47 DEMOCRATIC SENATORS
1 SENATE SEAT UNDECLARED

NOTE: Thank you all for following this TL. Please look for my poll to see how to go forward (or not) after this TL!

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