CONDI

[Progressive]

"I'm in."

[Progressive]

I thought you were replying to my TL. Oh well, this looks promising.

Not sure what you mean?

[Progressive]

This TL will consist of PoliticalWire, Politico Breaking News, NYT First Read, style updates.

Summer 2014

Condoleezza Rice To Campaign for Republican Candidates in Swing States
July 30, 2014

A publicist for former secretary of state Condoleezza Rice confirmed that Ms. Rice will spend two weeks on the campaign trail in late August stumping for Republicans in heated primaries ahead of this November's Midterm Elections. It's still unclear as of now which candidates will receive Rice's help or which have requested her help.

Joni Ernst, Mia Love, Thom Thillis To Receive Condoleezza Rice Endorsement in Late August
August 1, 2014

Rice's press assistant confirmed to CNN earlier this morning that the former Bush secretary of state will be in Utah on August 11 to endorse U.S. House candidate Mia Love in her second quest for Congress, August 13 for Iowa Republican Joni Ernst's campaign for U.S. Senate, and August 15 to encourage black voters to consider Thom Thillis, the Republican candidate. Her press assistant would not confirm whether Rice will endorse future candidates.

Rice to Endorse Kasich, Haley at Separate Rallies, Fueling Speculation of Presidential Bid
August 15, 2014

Fox News obtained confirmation from Condoleezza Rice's press assistant that the former secretary of state will be in South Carolina tomorrow for a rally with incumbent Gov. Nikki Haley, and will be in Ohio next week for Gov. John Kasich, leading to rumors that Rice is gauging support from prominent Republicans for a potential presidential bid in 2016.

STAY TUNED FOR INTERESTING NEWS FROM THE HALEY, KASICH RALLIES!

[Progressive]

Rice Urges Black Voters to 'Cross Bridge' to GOP at Haley Event
August 16, 2014

At a rally for South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former secretary of state Condi Rice urged black voters to consider voting for the first time for a Republican governor. "Nikki Haley shares our values. She believes in faith, family, security, and strength."

Kasich Refers to Condi Rice as 'Future President' at Cleveland Campaign Stop
August 17, 2014

At a 1,000 person rally in Cleveland, Ohio Gov. John Kasich thanked Rice for her enthusiastic endorsement and jokingly referred to Rice as "a former secretary and future president" to his wife, Karen Kasich.



COMING NEXT - RICE AND MARTINEZ HAVE SECRET MEETING

[Progressive]

Haley Won't Run, Urges Women to Step Up
September 1, 2014

In an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper, South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley announced that she will not explore a run for the presidency in 2016, but insists that she will actively "be on the hunt" for "strong Republican women" to step up to the plate and run. Focus has been re-cenetered around New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez and businesswoman Carly Fiorina who have made signals that they are interested in running. Still, in an anticipation of a likely Hillary Clinton presidential bid, top Republican leaders, including numerous foreign policy experts from both Bush administrations are urging Condi Rice to jump into the presidential race.

Rice Campaigns for Bush...the 'other' Bush
September 15, 2014

Condi Rice keynoted a number of fundraisers and campaign events for George P. Bush who is a leading Republican candidate for Texas Land Commissioner. Sources close to the Bush family say that they have "never been closer" with Condi and they hope that this "brilliant, capable" leader continues to get more actively involved n Republican politics.

Rice Gives Major Speeches on Ukranian-Russian Conflict
October 2014


Throughout the month of October, Condi Rice gives a number of high-profile speeches about what she calls the United States' diminishing role in world affairs. "Our country is being led by novices. Well intentioned ones, mind you, but people who don't understand the fundamental purpose of American power in the world. We need to make sure in November we elect strong, principled people who understand these values and send a respectful but meaningful message to President Obama that our country won't stand for diminishment on a worldwide scale!"

Republicans Rout in Midterms
November 2014



Jeb Won't Jump In
November 2014

Former Florida governor Jeb Bush says that he will not enter the 2016 presidential election, shocking many close to the Bush family who thought that the brother and son of former presidents Bush was finally giving serious consideration for the first time to a presidential bid. Observers suggest that Bush's decision not to run was a sign that Mitt Romney was likely to enter the race for a third bid for the presidency, or, that a major juggernaut like Condi Rice would enter the race.

Up next: 2015 begins with a fresh batch of polling for Democrats and Republicans.

[Progressive]

2015: Ready, Set, Go!

At a rally attended by thousands of people in Virginia Beach, VA, Condi Rice announced that she was running for the presidency to "put a final nail in the coffin of the failed Clinton doctrine" and restore American power around the world.

Republican candidates competing in Iowa: Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Condoleezza Rice, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum

Republican candidates who dropped out: Ben Carson, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, Rick Perry, Scott Walker

Republicans who considered running but decided not to: Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney

Democratic candidates competing in Iowa: Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders

Democratic candidates who dropped out: Lincoln Chaffee, Jim Webb

Democratic  who considered running but decided not to: Joe Biden

Polling:

The beginning of 2015 gave fuel to speculation that Mitt Romney would run for president for a third time. Romney consistently led polls in early 2015, with Rice in a close second. In March 2015 Mitt Romney announced that he would forego a presidential bid. Most Romney donors swiftly turned to Christie, Kasich, Rice, and Rubio. Notably, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz maintained dominant positions as second and third place to Rice throughout much of 2015. Christie's position in the polls continued to diminish as 2016 rolled closer. After Hillary Clinton's April 12, 2015 presidential announcement, Rice expanded her lead over the Republican field, with many GOP insiders believing that only Rice had the gravitas to take on Clinton. Over summer and throughout the fall of 2015, Rice became the prohibitive favorite in New Hampshire, with Christie, Kasich, and Paul, and Rubio making massive investments in the state to come to a close second to Rice. In Iowa, however, Rice consistent buoyed between first, second, and third place, though as 2016 got closer, Rice remained atop of much of the field.

The electorate:

Rice never managed significant headwinds among Evangelical voters in 2015. In fact, for stating relatively tepid pro-life and pro-"traditional" marriage views, Rice was scorned by Jerry Fallwell, Jr. and other prominent Evangelicals who increasingly rallied around Ted Cruz's presidential campaign. At a Focus on Faith forum in September in Iowa, Rice gave a rousing speech explaining her role in the church as a young girl, and how, throughout her life, she has been the "ultimate outsider." The message resonated to an extent, but Rice has still failed to consolidate a significant chunk of GOP voters. In fact, polling showed that Rice's overall favorability rating dropped as the campaign developed, with voters indicating that they found her "untrustworthy" or "too liberal" or "establishment." Ted Cruz knocked her as "Hillary 2.0," for experiencing similar e-mail issues.

Endorsements:
As a result of a relatively strong Republican field, prominent Republicans were apprehensive to offer endorsements in the race. The Bush family, irritated by Rubio's entry and for soaking up some of Jeb Bush's star-power in a potential race, was thought to be tacitly supporting Rice. Rice received the endorsement of Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad who referred to Cruz as "dangerous, unhinged." Arizona Sen. John McCain backed Rice, as did former Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Notably, businessman Donald Trump backed Rice, though in a controversial statement. "She's the smartest in the field I mean come on. Smart. Military. Black lady, guys I mean look she's the best out there." Rice received support from dozens of members of Congress.

Cruz enjoyed support of various Evangelical leaders across the country and Cong. Steve King. Fascinatingly, Cruz received no endorsements from his fellow senators and only a handful from members of Congress. Rand Paul saw support from his father, though few others. Christie, Rubio, and Kasich split the difference of a handful of backbench members of Congress. Many "big names" in the GOP have not endorsed yet.

The Punditry:

Despite the pervasive feeling of "an outsider candidate's year," many pundits expected that Condi Rice would win at least 2 out of 4 early states (New Hampshire and South Carolina), and would be on her way to winning the nomination by Super Tuesday I.

Final Aggregate Polls:

NATIONAL:

26% Rice; 15% Cruz, 14% Paul, 9% Rubio, 6% Christie, 4% Kasich, 4% Fiorina, 2% Mike Huckabee, 1% Rick Santorum, 19% undecided

IOWA:

21% Cruz, 21% Rice, 18% Paul, 11% Rubio, 5% Christie, 5% Kasich, 3% Fiorina, 3% Huckabee, 2% Santorum, 11% undecided

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

30% Rice, 11% Paul, 11% Christie, 11% Rubio, 7% Fiorina, 5% Cruz, 5% Kasich, 1% Huckabee, 0% Santorum, 19% undecided

NEXT UP: IOWA CAUCUSES RESULTS

Note: *In this TL, the 2016 Democratic Primaries unfold the same way they did IRL*

[Progressive]

IOWA CAUCUSES

RESULTS

Ted Cruz                  24.7%      
Rand Paul                24.3%
Condi Rice               21.6%
Marco Rubio            12.5%
John Kasich               4.8%
Chris Christie             3.6%
Mike Huckabee          3.4%
Carly Fiorina             3.1%
Rick Santorum          1.0%

DELEGATE COUNT

Ted Cruz             7
Rand Paul           7
Condi Rice          7
Marco Rubio        5
John Kasich         1
Chris Christie      1
Mike Huckabee    1
Carly Fiorina       1

The Cruz Victory Fallout



Suffice to say, the Republican establishment is on edge with Cruz's big win Iowa. Though he led polls in the state for much of the month of January, his three-point edge over Rice and mere half-a-point over Paul has given party leaders, who find both Cruz and Paul  troublesome, cause to worry that Condi Rice's campaign is not quite ready to be competitive. Party leaders have urged Marco Rubio, who earned 12.5% of the vote, and Condi Rice to come to some sort of consensus as to who would drop out of the race. In his victory speech, Ted Cruz stated that the conservative party has lit a fire that cannot be tamed and that his campaign would compete for victory in every contest including the convention. His colleague, Rand Paul, gave a similar victory-style speech but in New Hampshire where polls show him surging past Condi Rice. Rubio, having come in a distant fourth, is rumored to be considering dropping out. Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum have all dropped out. John Kasich has said that if he does not come in top three in New Hampshire he too will drop out.

Notable Entrance Polling Data
*Top 3 candidates will be displayed*

Women: Rice 31%, Paul 17%, Rubio 16%
Men: Cruz 30%, Paul 23%, Rice 16%
College Graduate:    29% Rice, 25% Paul, 21% Cruz
Not a College Graduate:  35% Cruz, 17% Paul, 17% Rice
Republicans: 27% Cruz, 26% Rice, 20% Paul
Independents: 30% Paul, 20% Cruz, 19% Rice
Conservative: 31% Cruz, 21% Rice, 20% Paul
Moderate: 28% Paul, 28% Rice, 19% Rubio
White Born Evangelical:  36% Cruz, 18% Paul, 18% Rice
Not ^: 28% Paul, 25% Rice, 20% Cruz
Change Candidate: 31% Cruz, 29% Paul, 19% Rice
Experienced Candidate: 30% Rice, 19% Paul, 16% Cruz

New Hampshire Primary Primer

Condi Rice planned a week-long campaign blitz with John McCain and prominent local elected officials in New Hampshire. Rice maintained a first-place or strong second position in polls, but Rand Paul was quickly gaining. Interestingly, the New Hampshire Union Leader, which endorsed Christie prior to Iowa, was now backing Kasich after Christie terminated his campaign. Cruz is hoping to come into a strong third, effectively blocking Rubio out of the top three. All indication are that Rubio is taking a not-unimportant slice of the "brings change" and "very conservative vote."

Final Aggregate Polls

NATIONAL: 27% Rice, 26% Cruz, 19% Paul, 10% Rubio, 8% Kasich, 10% undecided

NEW HAMPSHIRE: 29% Paul, 27% Rice, 14% Rubio, 14% Cruz, 10% Kasich, 6% undecided

SOUTH CAROLINA:  28% Rice, 26% Cruz, 13% Paul, 12% Rubio, 7% Kasich, 14% undecided

[Progressive]

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY

The Lead Up

The February 6, 2016 Republican debate in Manchester, New Hampshire was extremely bitter and pundits were shocked by the level of personal attacks during and around the debate. Prior to the debate, Cruz picked up the support of former NH Sen. Bob Smith, who lambasted Rice for "not having a family" and not having a "serious stake" in the future of the country. Instead of disavowing those comments, Cruz doubled down at the debate with this remark: "New Hampshire families, I ask you to consider what I'm saying. Someone with a wife and children knows the concern you have about being one paycheck away from financial ruin, one heroine injection away from losing your child, and one more establishment president away from losing the greatest country the world has ever known." When asked on the debate stage if anyone disagreed with Cruz's comments, only Kasich defended Rice. Rice, in her own right, delivered a very powerful retort to Cruz that earned her a standing ovation at the debate, referring to Cruz as the "chairman of his one-man hot air caucus in the U.S. Senate," chiding him for his reputation among his colleagues. Paul and Rubio were less active in the debate.

RESULTS

Condi Rice           31.5%
Rand Paul            28.9%
Ted Cruz              21.6%
John Kasich         9.6%
Marco Rubio        8.4%

DELEGATE COUNT
Condi Rice          22
Rand Paul           11
Ted Cruz             10
Marco Rubio        6
John Kasich         1
Chris Christie      1
Mike Huckabee    1
Carly Fiorina       1

The Rice Victory Fallout



After slipping in the polls leading up to New Hampshire, Rice roared back with a small but decisive near 3 point lead over her closest challenger, Rand Paul. This victory was significant for four main reasons. Primarily, it provided Condi Rice with a badly-needed win, and proof that her campaign is able to create a winning coalition in a crucial swing state with Republican and independent voters. Rice won a significant number of delegates and unbound delegates after the New Hampshire primary win. Second, her New Hampshire victory denied Rand Paul a win in a sorely needed libertarian-independent leaning state that theoretically is favorable to his message, but she did not dispatch him so severely that he will leave the race. This means that Paul will likely continue to take "anti-establishment" support from Cruz. Third, Rice's big win in New Hampshire caused Marco Rubio and John Kasich to end their presidential bids. John Kasich has already announced his support for Rice, and is considered a short-list VP prospect should she win the nomination. Rubio has not endorsed Rice, though she is actively pursuing his support. Finally, Rice's victory comes on the same day that Hillary Clinton was defeated handily by Bernie Sanders. Rice is beginning to soak up the narrative of first woman president more successfully than is Clinton.

Notable Exit Polling Data

Women: Rice 40%, Paul 20%, Cruz 15%
Men: Paul 25%, Rice 24%, Cruz 23%
College Graduate: Rice 31%, Paul 30%, Cruz 17%
Not College Graduate: Cruz 26%, Rice 24%, Paul 22%
Republicans: Rice 33%, 22% Cruz, 19% Paul
Independents: Paul 36%, Cruz 21%, Rice 20%
Conservative: Cruz 28%, Rice 27%, Paul 20%
Moderate: Rice 34%, Paul 19%, Kasich 16%
White Born Evangelical:  39% Cruz, 18% Paul, 18% Rice
Not ^: Rice 35%, Paul 24%, Cruz 18%
Change Candidate: Paul 35%, Cruz 29%, Rice 18%
Experienced Candidate: 36% Rice, 19% Paul, 18% Kasich

South Carolina Primary Primer

Ted Cruz came in third place in New Hampshire, but he still performed better than polls suggested. Additionally, exit polling essentially showed a tie among conservative voters between Rice and Cruz. Though Paul came in a close second, he is not expected to be a strong factor in South Carolina. Rice's campaign has lowered expectations tremendously. She rolled out an endorsement from Sen. Lindsey Graham and is expected to receive the support of Gov. Nikki Haley. Still, Cruz has received support from former Sen. Jim DeMint and numerous conservative elected officials in South Carolina. Still, contentious debates and an increasingly personal and bitter campaign has lowered the favorability of Cruz and Rice, though not of Paul.

Final Aggregate Polls

NATIONAL: Rice 31%, Cruz 28%, Paul 23%, 18% undecided

SOUTH CAROLINA: Cruz 37%, Rice 31%, Paul 16%, 16% undecided

NEVADA: Paul 26%, Rice 23%, Cruz 22%, 29% undecided

[Progressive]

Well written!

Thanks! South Carolina primary coming soon. Some interesting stuff going to happen. 2016 will be crazy even without Trump

[Progressive]

SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY

The Lead Up

Immediately after Condi Rice's win in New Hampshire, the Republican presidential primary devolved into chaos. Allies and associates of Ted Cruz began to circulate rumors in South Carolina that Condi Rice was a lesbian and/or that she felt that having a family was beneath her. Rice said that these accusation did not dignify a response, but this made already-suspicious Republican voters in South Carolina already more suspicious of Rice.

Making matters worse, a Russian hacker leaked stolen emails from the Rice campaign. In the inbox of various top aides including Rick Wilson, was correspondence with businessman Donald J. Trump. Here are some snippets of conversation:

TO: DJT
FROM: RickW@riceseniorstaff.com
DATE: February 2, 2016
SUBJECT: Scare them with Heidi

Donald, it's Rick again. Thanks for going on CNBC last night to talk dollars and 'cents' it's a great way to show CR is best on all issues. Remember what we talked about last week, re: Heidi? Can you do to them what you did about Kenya. You know this already but the base believes what you say. They trust you. Your [sic] an expert on how to use the media and we could use the help. We need to squeeze by in NH and we need to survive SC. thanks--RW


TO: RickW@riceseniorstaff.com
FROM: DJT
DATE: February 3, 2016
SUBJECT: RE: Scare them with Heidi

Fine by me but if sh** hits the fan you owe me cover. Cruz is disgusting. Attacking Condi what a symbol she could be for the Party. Bet Heidi feels scared to do anything. Garbage spouse.

Since then, Donald Trump made six different appearances criticizing Heidi Cruz for emotional photos of her crying and for working for Goldman Sachs. He aimed to portray the Cruz family as too unstable and unfit for the White House. Meanwhile, at a Republican debate on February 13, 2016, Ted Cruz and Condi Rice's feud came to a head. Heidi screamed out from the audience calling Condi Rice: "Liar!" "Just like Hillary!" "Cruel!"

Both campaigns were in meltdown mode, while Rand Paul was busy campaigning in Nevada.



Heidi Cruz gives interview on day of South Carolina Primary doubling down on referring to Condi Rice as the "Republican Hillary."

RESULTS

Ted Cruz          49.0%
Condi Rice         34.6%
Rand Paul         16.4%

DELEGATE COUNT
Ted Cruz            60
Condi Rice          22
Rand Paul           11

**EXIT POLL NOTE: Cruz won almost all categories except for moderates and college educated women under 40**

Cruz Victory Fallout

Rice was hurt badly after a stinging loss in South Carolina. She not only lost the state by double digits, but also feared that her e-mail issues were going to dog her campaign going forward. She was also bracing for another potential loss, in fact, a potential third place finish, in Nevada. Her solution was to clean up on Super Tuesday, but Cruz's big south win made this look harder. Meanwhile, Cruz lavished his victory and stated that the race was "fundamentally altered" and referred to himself as "the prohibitive frontrunner, by the grace of God."

NEXT UP: NEVADA CAUCUSES RESULTS AND PRE-SUPER TUESDAY POLLS!

[Progressive]

Does Cruz not get hurt for his dirty tactics like he did in Iowa IOTL?

That's to come but I think Cruz's underhandedness in spreading rumors about Condi came across as less jarring than did emails blatantly encouraging Trump to bash the spouse of a candidate. But you'll see soon. Cruz isn't sailing away with this

[Progressive]

NEVADA CAUCUSES

The Lead Up

After Condi Rice's crushing loss in South Carolina, it was Ted Cruz's turn to get pummeled. From Mitt Romney to Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval, a slew of Republican leaders compared Cruz to Obama in terms of a lack of experience, and stated privately that he was too extreme to win a general election, even against a politically wounded Hillary Clinton. Mike Huckabee also stumped with Rice in Nevada, endorsing her, and promising to deliver votes in the South for Super Tuesday. Cruz did not visit Nevada after his South Carolina win, opting instead to focus on Super Tuesday southern states.

Rand Paul spent much of the remainder of his campaign resources on the Nevada Caucuses, hoping to win big and revive his flailing candidacy. Rice, too, wanted Paul to come in second to her in Nevada, so that Cruz could experience a third-place loss. Still, polls had Paul well ahead. Final Nevada polls had Paul around 40% in the state, with Rice and Cruz garnering around 20% each.

RESULTS
Rand Paul        38.6%
Condi Rice           36.5%
Ted Cruz             24.9%

DELEGATE COUNT
Ted Cruz            65
Condi Rice          35
Rand Paul           23

Notable Entrance Polling Data
Men: Paul 40%, Rice 30%, Cruz 30%
Women: Rice 45%, Paul 30%, Cruz 15%
Non-white: Rice 43%, Cruz 30%, Paul 27%
White: Paul 41%, Cruz 30%, Paul 29%
Yes college graduate: Paul 40%, Rice 39%, Cruz 21%
No college graduate: Paul 35%, Rice 35%, Cruz 30%
Republicans: Rice 40%, Cruz 30%, Paul 30%
Independents: Paul 49%, Rice 29%, Cruz 22%
Yes born again: Cruz 39%, Rice 34%, Paul 27%
No born again: Paul 44%, Rice 33%, Cruz 23%

Paul Victory Fallout


While Paul was basking in his small but decisive win in the Nevada Caucuses, the bigger story line was Rice's resurgence in a state that did not naturally lend to her candidacy. Her numbers improved in key groups including those who wanted change. She also performed very well in Mormon sections of the state, suggesting that her endorsements from Mitt Romney and others helped. Paul lives to fight on until Super Tuesday, where he will be scraping together resources to compete in low-delegate states such as Alaska and Vermont. Cruz, who trailed behind in third place in Nevada, was gearing up to sweep southern states and hold off Rice. His goal, according to top aides on background, was to make the delegate race difficult for Rice to catch up by winning big in Evangelical areas.

Rice-Cruz Feud Update

Ted Cruz and Heidi Cruz participated together at a town hall in George the day after the Nevada Caucuses. After being asked about the feud, Heidi took the mic from her husband and said "people think Condi is so brilliant but she's cold. That's why she has no family and no one to love." Cruz then burst into tears. The bizarre situation surrounding Heidi Cruz continued to dominate headlines until the Super Tuesday. Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee called on Cruz to drop out of the race. "The man needs help. The man needs prayer. The man needs to reconsider the vile tone of his candidacy."

Making matters worse for Cruz, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry hit the trail with Rice in Texas, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma and other states.

Super Tuesday Primer

The polls below tell most of the story. Rice needs to survive the South, win the North and Midwest. Cruz needs the inverse. Paul, sensing a close race, wants to stay in the race to amass delegates and perhaps soak up enough support to play kingmaker.

Final Polls Before Super Tuesday

NATIONAL:           Rice 36%, Cruz 31%, Paul 21%, undecided 12%
ALABAMA:            Cruz 47%, Rice 26%, Paul 12%, undecided 15%
ALASKA:               Paul 40%, Cruz 24%, Rice 21% undecided 15%
ARKANSAS:           Cruz 37%, Rice 29%, Paul 10%, undecided 24%
GEORGIA:             Cruz 41%, Rice 36%, Paul 13%, undecided 10%
MASSACHUSETTS: Rice 45%, Paul 25%, Cruz 16%, undecided 14%
MINNESOTA:         Rice 30%, Cruz 28%, Paul 25%, undecided 17%
OKLAHOMA:          Cruz 44%, Rice 30%,  Paul 14%, undecided 12%
TENNESSEE:         Cruz 43%, Rice 31%, Paul 14%, undecided 12%
TEXAS:                Cruz 50%, Rice 28%, Paul 12%, undecided 10%
VERMONT:           Rice 40%, Paul 31%, Cruz 12%, undecided 17%
VIRGINIA:           Cruz 35%, Rice 34%,  Paul 15%, undecided 16%

NEXT UP: WIIIIIILD SUPER TUESDAY

[Progressive]

Well, hopefully Condoleezza Rice will fare well in the general against Hillary. It would be rather hard not to.

Keep in mind that the Democratic primary/news is essentially the same as IRL. So all of the events that have wounded Hillary's candidacy thus far, whether legitimate or not (as I personally believe many are not), are still in existence here. And Hillary will NOT be going against Donald Trump, obviously. Expect polls to be much closer than they are IRL. Stay tuned for Super Tuesday:)

[Progressive]

SUPER TUESDAY #1

The Lead Up

It would be extremely fair to say that Super Tuesday #1 is do-or-die for all three candidates. Ted Cruz needs to win and win big in southern states, which are a majority for this Super Tuesday. But he also must run strong in the other states too so as not to lose out on too many delegates. Condi Rice's goal is to win the New England and Midwestern states on Super Tuesday, and also try to peel off a southern state from Cruz. Insiders say that her best shot is Virginia, though her momentum in Georgia was growing after she received the endorsement of some conservative Evangelical leaders in the state. Rand Paul must win a state to have a rationale to stay in the race. His campaign was the only one to spend resources in Alaska, and he is making a strong play at Minnesota, Vermont, Massachusetts, and certain parts of Texas where his father was a member of Congress. A strong Paul showing outside of the South could hurt Rice among social moderates/liberals, while a strong showing in the South could hurt Cruz among anti-establishment voters.

The Rice-Cruz feud continued up until Super Tuesday primary day. Pundits and insiders received numerous reports that Rice was growing increasingly uncomfortable with the personal nature of the feud, but she was emboldened to "hit back" on Cruz for comparing her to Hillary Clinton. All three candidates debuted new ads leading up to Super Tuesday. Cruz's ads were especially powerful, featuring members of his church explaining how through prayer, compassion, and his Senate office, Cruz helped his constituents in times of need. The ad is called "For Us" and was being aired in all Super Tuesday states. Meanwhile, Rice launched two different ads ahead of Super Tuesday. "Change for Strength" featured military families explaining their support for Rice. This ad was launched in southern states and was aimed at reaching military families, a reliably conservative voting bloc in the South that Rice hoped to win over. Meanwhile, "Stronger Solutions" was launched in the Northeast and Midwest and focused on Rice's plan to combat heroine addiction and financial despair. Rand Paul echoed a different theme, with 15 second ads showing people smashing computers and other electronic machinery. The ads were simple: "Smash the Washington machine."

RESULTS

ALABAMA
Ted Cruz             51.6%
Condi Rice           35.1%
Rand Paul            14.3%

ALASKA
Rand Paul            46.2%
Ted Cruz                 28.4%
Condi Rice              25.4%

ARKANSAS
Ted Cruz               45.1%
Condi Rice              40.9%
Rand Paul               14.0%

GEORGIA
Ted Cruz                  44.1%
Condi Rice                 43.1%
Rand Paul                 12.8%

MASSACHUSETTS
Condi Rice            55.1%
Rand Paul                29.9%
Ted Cruz                  15.0%

MINNESOTA
Condi Rice           40.5%
Rand Paul               30.5%
Ted Cruz                 29.0%

OKLAHOMA
Ted Cruz               45.9%
Condi Rice               34.7%
Rand Paul                19.4%

TENNESSEE
Ted Cruz                 47.5%
Condi Rice                 39.9%
Rand Paul                 12.6%

TEXAS
Ted Cruz                  55.1%
Condi Rice                 30.4%
Rand Paul                   14.5%

VERMONT
Condi Rice                 51.3%
Rand Paul                    40.2%
Ted Cruz                       9.5%

VIRGINIA
Condi Rice                  42.9%
Ted Cruz                       40.4%
Rand Paul                     16.7%

DELEGATE COUNT
Ted Cruz            361
Condi Rice          258
Rand Paul           95

The Fallout: Cruz Wins, Condi Survives, Paul Hangs On

Super Tuesday #1 offered glimmers of hope and despair for all three Republican candidates. Let's break down the ups and downs for each candidate on Super Tuesday #1.

Ted Cruz (+): Cruz obviously won the most states and delegates on Super Tuesday #1. He boasts a 103 delegate lead over Condi Rice and that will certainly be a tough hurdle for him to overcome. He performed well in the South and in Minnesota, and he will continue to be able to lay claim that he is the frontrunner of the GOP presidential race.

Ted Cruz (-): Cruz won, but his victories in numerous southern states were not as large as he had hoped. Condi Rice was able to win a significant number of delegates in the proportional-delegate system. Making matters worse, these were supposed to be Cruz's best states. Going forward, toward a winner-take-all system, the terrain gets substantially tougher for Cruz. This might be his night, but the future doesn't hold a winning path for Cruz. Can he turn it around and make inroads with other groups?

Condo Rice (+) Condi Rice was on Ted Cruz's tail for much for the night. She held him down to single-digit wins in various states. Her victory in Virginia and her close race in Georgia shows that she is starting to be able to compete in more conservative territory, especially with Rand Paul in the race. Going forward, her path looks even brighter, so long as she can keep the coalition together.

Condi Rice (-) Despite some big wins on Super Tuesday #1, she is still 100+ delegates behind Cruz and needs to work on convincing the electorate that she is still a frontrunner in this race. She will be able to claim momentum, but will have to emulate some of Cruz's style to win in deep-red territory, something she has traditionally not been as comfortable with. If Rand Paul drops out in the near future, she may have an even harder time in a struggle mano-a-mano with Cruz.

Rand Paul (+) He won Alaska and did well in Massachusetts and Vermont. His home state of Kentucky is next, and he has insisted will remain in the race.

Rand Paul (-) Rumors have swirled that Sen. Mitch McConnell has urged Rand Paul to stay in the race to deprive Cruz of some wins in Kentucky and more libertarian-leaning caucus states. This hurts Paul's authenticity. Further, he has only won two states so far, and is probably going to have a harder time justifying staying in the race.

Notable Entrance/Exit Polling Data
*NOTE: this is aggregate data surveyed from across all the states that voted on Super Tuesday #1*
Who attacked most unfairly? Cruz 56%, Rice 37%, Paul 7%
Who is most qualified?   Rice 50%, Paul 25%, Cruz 25%
Who will bring change?  Cruz 39%, Rice 32%, Paul 29%
White evangelical:  Cruz 54%, Rice 36%, Paul 10%
NOT white evangelical: Rice 48%, Cruz 29%, Paul 23%

UP NEXT: Another debate, and Mini-Tuesday including Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Maine results.

[Progressive]

MINI TUESDAY #1

The Lead Up

The March 5, 2016 Mini-Tuesday contest will prove as a pivotal moment for Rand Paul. If he fails to capture his home state of Kentucky, then he will likely drop out, and potentially open up a path for Cruz to capture the "anti-establishment" vote. Cruz's campaign has accused Paul and Rice, in the four days since Super Tuesday, of conspiring to deprive him of the delegates needed to win the nomination. For example, Rand Paul spent an unexpectedly heavy amount of resources in Louisiana despite polling a very distant third (low double digits) for weeks. He has focused much of his energy around college campuses in the state, making a play for voters who would be amenable to Cruz had Paul not been a viable candidate. Interestingly, in a  move that would support the Cruz conspiracy theory, Paul has pulled resources from Maine, a state in which he would appear to do well among younger and moderate voters. Meanwhile, Cruz is making an all out investment in all four states, including Kentucky. Rice on the other hand appears to be competing in all four states as well, but her campaign spokespeople have stated that all she needs to win is one state, probably Maine, to maintain her status as a favorite in this race. If she wins Maine, does well in Louisiana, her campaign will survive even if Cruz wins Louisiana, Kansas, and does well in Kentucky.

RESULTS

Kansas
Rand Paul       45.1%
Ted Cruz             31.2%
Condi Rice          23.7%

Kentucky
Rand Paul        52.0%
Condi Rice           24.2%
Ted Cruz              21.8%

Louisiana
Ted Cruz          43.0%
Condi Rice            41.4%
Rand Paul            15.6%

Maine
Condi Rice         50.1%
Rand Paul              26.5%
Ted Cruz               24.4%

DELEGATE COUNT
Ted Cruz            406
Condi Rice          313
Rand Paul           150

The Fallout: Rand Paul's big night



Rand Paul was clearly the big winner of the night. He handily won his home state of Kentucky and handily won Kansas as well. He remains a major thorn in Ted Cruz's side. National polling prior Mini Tuesday #1 suggests that in a three way race, support breaks down as follows: Rice 39%, Cruz 36%, Paul 16%, 9% undecided. In a Rice-Cruz race, Cruz leads Rice 48% to 42% with 10% undecided. In a Rice-Paul race, Rice leads Paul 45% to 33%. Meanwhile, Rice did very well on Mini Tuesday #1. She beat Cruz in delegates in Louisiana, as she won more unpledged delegates, and won Maine handily. Terrain looks continuously more difficult for Cruz. Rice has slashed his lead from 103 delegates to 93 delegates, a lead that can be erased by winning some of the more moderate winner-take-all states.

Aggregate Polling Post-Mini Tuesday #1

NATIONAL (GENERAL):
Rice 46% - Clinton 40%
Rice 44% - Sanders 42% 
Cruz 42% - Clinton 44%
Cruz 41% - Sanders 45%
Paul 41% - Clinton 41%
Paul 38% - Sanders 39%

NATIONAL (GOP):
Rice 40% - Cruz 33% - Paul 19% - undecided 8%
Rice 42% - Cruz 45% - undecided 13%
Rice 46% - Paul 37% - undecided 17%

PUERTO RICO:
Rice 56% - Cruz 15% - Paul 15% - undecided 14%


UP NEXT: Puerto Rico Primary, and Ted Cruz takes desperate measures to dispatch Rice. Will Rice return by unleashing the Donald?

[Progressive]

PUERTO RICO PRIMARY

RESULTS
Condi Rice          64.3%
Ted Cruz                28.7%
Rand Paul               7.0%

DELEGATE COUNT
Ted Cruz            406
Condi Rice          336
Rand Paul           150

The Fallout



After a big win in Puerto Rice, Condi Rice has declared that her campaign has unstoppable momentum going forward, at a rally in Michigan. Just two days away from the next Mini-Tuesday, Condi Rice has invited tremendous controversy by indicting Gov. Rick Snyder for his handling of the Flint lead water crisis. In an interview with a local newspaper, she stated, "I agree with Secretary Clinton, Senator Paul, and countless others across the state and across our country who acknowledge this failure at all levels of government, including the governor's office."

As a result, Ted Cruz, who was endorsed by Gov. Snyder in a surprise move, put out an ad featuring Hillary stating liberal positions on a variety of issues replaying Rice's statement "I agree with Senator Clinton." The ad was titled "Birds of a Feather" and was launched in Michigan and Mississippi.


Meanwhile, Condi Rice has dispatched endorsee Donald Trump, the bombastic New York businessman, to go on the attack against Cruz. "Look folks Ted Cruz doesn't get it," said Trump. "This guy doesn't have a clue. Michigan has hurt so badly, so badly, because of politicians like Cruz...and what does he want from all of you? To drink his Kool-Aid...he promises you all everything and he'll give you nothing. Trust me folks, I know business. I'm going to be honest with you, I don't want to be honest, but I have to. I'm the richest guy in the room right now I bet and I know about money and I know that Ted Cruz doesn't know a thing about it. Condi Rice is a treat. She's the smartest lady I know besides my wife Melania!"

Trump's speech was well-received. Despite Rice's hesitation to use Trump, she acknowledges that he is a strong surrogate in places like Michigan. Meanwhile, numerous Republicans in Michigan and some other states with large white-working class populations are asking Trump to move in and run for governor.

Aggregate Polling Morning of Mini-Tuesday #2:

NATIONAL (GENERAL):
Rice 47% - Clinton 42%
Rice 45% - Sanders 43% 
Cruz 41% - Clinton 46%
Cruz 41% - Sanders 47%
Paul 39% - Clinton 42%
Paul 36% - Sanders 40%

NATIONAL (GOP):
Rice 41% - Cruz 32% - Paul 18% - undecided 10%
Rice 44% - Cruz 44% - undecided 12%
Rice 48% - Paul 35% - undecided 17%

HAWAII:
Paul 34% - Rice 25% - Cruz 22% - undecided 19%

IDAHO:
Paul 40% - Cruz 22% - Rice 21% - undecided 17%

MICHIGAN:
Rice 42% - Cruz 37% - Paul 15% - undecided 6%

MISSISSIPPI:
Cruz 46% - Rice 34% - Paul 10% - undecided 10%

UP NEXT: MINI TUESDAY RESULTS!

[Progressive]

I'm surprised Paul didn't have a stronger showing in ME.

I'd be too, but, if you look at what I wrote in the previous post, he pulled resources from Maine to focus on other states, adding to Cruz's theory that Paul is being nudged by McConnell to help create an easier path for a Condi victory.

[Progressive]

MINI TUESDAY #2

The Lead Up

Tonight is the night that Condi Rice needs to recapture frontrunner status from Ted Cruz, whose campaign has been in limbo since unloading bizarre attacks on Condi Rice's marital status and position on the Flint water crisis, among other issues. Cruz, who has become sermonic as of late in his speeches to Republican primary goers, said on the morning of Mini Tuesday #2 that nominating Condi Rice would "bring to life the Hillary Clinton politics of the Republican Party, and put to death the party of Ronald Reagan."

Interestingly, Rice spent her Mini Tuesday #2 morning visiting polling places in Michigan, Idaho, and Mississippi, and called in to various local morning T.V. news stations in Hawaii. GOP observers and insiders were beginning to remark that Rice's campaign had the markings of a serious, national campaign, whereas it was becoming increasingly evident that Cruz's agenda was to win by tarnishing Rice.

Rand Paul spent the last several days campaigning in Idaho and Hawaii.

Meanwhile at 5:53pm EST, WikiLeaks' team released emails stolen from the Condi Rice campaign, suggesting collusion between Rice and Paul. This is not the first time Condi has endured an email scandal.

RESULTS

Hawaii
Condi Rice              39.5%
Rand Paul                35.9%
Ted Cruz                  24.6%

Idaho
Rand Paul                40.2%
Condi Rice                  33.4%
Ted Cruz                    26.4%

Michigan
Condi Rice                 47.2%
Ted Cruz                      39.6%
Rand Paul                    13.2%

Mississippi
Ted Cruz                     50.3%
Condi Rice                    39.9%
Rand Paul                      9.8%

Delegates
Ted Cruz            452
Condi Rice          409
Rand Paul           181

The Fallout



At a rally in Florida, Condi Rice declared the "direction of the race had changed," and that the party was beginning to coalesce around her candidacy. Uneasy, she lobbed criticism of Hillary Clinton, President Obama, and her main opponent, Ted Cruz. "Like President Obama and Secretary Clinton," said Rice, "Senator Cruz thinks that divisiveness and name-calling is the path to win America's heart. Well, friends, we're living proof that that notion is false. American hearts and minds are won over not in Washington but across this great country and on the battlefields abroad."



Meanwhile, at a rally in Missouri, Ted Cruz held up print-outs of the e-mails that were allegedly made between campaign staff of Condi Rice and Rand Paul. In short, the emails from Rice staff offer advice to Paul strategists as to where to go ofter "potent change vote" and where to avoid "more centrist, densely populated vote." Just before Cruz spoke, Rice campaign staff has said that "junior campaign staff inappropriately offered casual advice to friends in a rival campaign. While this is often commonplace in campaigns to discuss voter trends among strategic rivals, we have terminated our affiliation with the campaign staff." But Cruz did not accept this response. At the rally, he declared that the GOP primary had been rigged and that Condi Rice should "drop out for the good of the party, the good of the country, and quite frankly, the good of her humanity and conscience." Fascinatingly, businessman Donald Trump aired a video response to Cruz on Fox News from a hotel in Houston, Texas. Rumors are now swirling that Trump may look to purchase property in Texas and challenge Cruz in 2018.

Aggregate Polling of March 15 Super Tuesday #2 +DC

NATIONAL (GENERAL):
Rice 47% - Clinton 43%
Rice 40% - Sanders 44%
Cruz 39% - Clinton 45%
Cruz 36% - Sanders 42%
Paul 39% - Clinton 44%
Paul 36% - Sanders 40%

NATIONAL (GOP):
Rice 42% - Cruz 35% - Paul 13% - undecided 10%

WASHINGTON, D.C.:
Rice 71% - Paul 14% - Cruz 7% - undecided 8%

FLORIDA:
Rice 43% - Cruz 39% - Paul 10% - undecided 8%

ILLINOIS:
Rice 45% - Cruz 37% - Paul 11% - undecided 7%

MISSOURI:
Cruz 41% - Rice 36% - Paul 14% - undecided 9%

NORTH CAROLINA:
Cruz 46% - Rice 41% - Paul 7% - undecided 6%

OHIO:
Rice 45% - Cruz 39% - Paul 10% - undecided 6%

NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
*Rice favored; GOP leadership has endorsed Rice*

NEXT UP: SUPER TUESDAY #2 plus some breaking news on the campaign trail.

[Progressive]

BTW--if anyone has a cool idea to throw a "wrench" into this primary election (or general or presidency) please message me privately, would love to consider some ideas, thanks!

[Progressive]

CONDI ABORTION BOMBSHELL: RICE EXPOSED FOR HAVING TWO ABORTIONS AFTER SEX BINGE TRYING TO PROVE INTEREST IN MEN

"I can't be silent any longer. Look I've got a lot of respect for Condi but the leader of the free world needs to be exposed and...well, look I was her college roommate. We knew things about each other that no one til [sic] this day probably knows. But I've prayed on this over and over and over again. And, well, like I said, I can't be silent any longer. Condi would try to prove us all that she liked boys when we know she didn't. She knows she didn't. So she'd go home with some guy and she'd kick him out early morning. But then she went to the clinic. Twice. It was bad news. I'm sorry Condi, but, the world needs to know..."

STAY TUNED

[Progressive]

SUPER TUESDAY PART 2: MARCH 15, 2016

The Lead Up

The Condi Rice abortion/lesbian bombshell was believed to be orchestrated by aides close to Ted Cruz to who contacted a former roommate of Condi Rice. Glenn Beck, the controversial conservative commentator who is endorsing Ted Cruz, pushed the story on his radio show, and, as a result, conservative online news outlets began covering the story including The Drudge Report, Breitbart, The Blaze and others. Mainstream news outlets reported the story as well, though the day after the story broke, Fox News confirmed that the woman making the claims against Rice was actually not a former roommate, but someone whom she shared a hallway with during one semester her first year in college. And instead of knowing for sure that Condi Rice was getting abortion-care, she knew that Rice went to "some sort of health clinic at least twice" after inviting men over to her room. As for the lesbian accusations, this former hall-mate's knowledge was based on the fact that "everybody knew" that Rice was not attracted to men.

In a move that Cruz thought would mobilize evangelical support, he was confronted with both mainstream and fringe-right conservatives not just chastising him but calling on him to drop out of the race. Shockingly, former president George W. Bush and his wife, Laura Bush, issued a video statement in support of his former advisor, Condi Rice, ahead of the Super Tuesday primaries, and called on Cruz to drop out of the race. Moreover, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry called on Cruz to resign his senate seat "for the good of the people of Texas, the good of his family, and the good of his conscience." Still, Cruz was emboldened by some evangelical leaders especially in Florida, Missouri, and North Carolina, three states Cruz hoped to win to revive his campaign. He received the endorsement of Pam Bondi, Florida's Attorney General, known for her conservative views on social issues.

For her own part, Condi Rice largely ignored the attacks on her personal life. Close aides and confidants to Rice conceded to national press that Rice was "startled" and "saddened" by the negative tenor of the Republican Primary. She confided in them that she feared her reputation and her family's reputation would be tarnished by conservative leaders hellbent on her political downfall. Still, emboldened by her momentum in the race as of late, she deployed some of her stronger surrogates to the March 15 Super Tuesday states. Rice admittedly had an uncomfortable relationship with many of these surrogates. She did not particularly feel that Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, or Joni Ernst, examples of some of her more frequent surrogates, matched her style, but she was grateful for their constant willingness to help her against conservative onslaught of attacks, and felt that they had earned their right to stump however they pleased, so long as it was appropriate, on the campaign trail.

On the campaign trail for Rand Paul was a few libertarian-esque elected officials in Missouri and Ohio. Paul's campaign admitted that unless he broke double digits in all states on March 15, he would drop out of the race. Condi Rice deployed Donald Trump to Ohio for five events in three days. The crowds there loved him. Rice invited Gov. Kasich to many of her events in Ohio, Missouri, and Illinois, stoking speculation that she felt very comfortable with his delivery for her. Florida Gov. Rick Scott and Sen. Marco Rubio were big hits for Rice in Florida. Ted Cruz stumped with Jerry Falwell, Jr., Steve King, and other conservative leaders in the Super Tuesday States.

RESULTS

Washington, D.C.
Condi Rice        74.0%
Rand Paul           16.1%
Ted Cruz              9.9%

Florida
Condi Rice         48.7%
Ted Cruz              42.4%
Rand Paul              8.9%

Illinois
Condi Rice          49.4%
Ted Cruz                39.6%
Rand Paul             11.0%

Missouri
Ted Cruz            45.6%
Condi Rice             42.0%
Rand Paul              12.4%

North Carolina
Ted Cruz             45.6% *Cruz won by 56 votes total/called days later*
Condi Rice             45.6%
Rand Paul               8.8%

Ohio
Condi Rice            48.0%
Ted Cruz                 41.9%
Rand Paul               10.1%

Northern Mariana Islands
Condi Rice 85%

Delegate Count
Condi Rice          702
Ted Cruz            533
Rand Paul           193

The Fallout

The small potatoes of the night was that Rand Paul dropped out after not meeting his self-determined goal of hitting double digits in all states. While he did not endorse Rice, he warned that Cruz was a "danger of greatest proportions," and should be stopped "at all costs."


The big winner of the night was Condi Rice, who delivered a nominee-like speech to an audience in Florida, where she campaigned vigorously all day. Rice declared that the nominating process had entered its final stages and that the party was rallying around her candidacy. At the end of her speech she called out Cruz by name, something she had been reluctant to do: "As a child my parents taught me to stand up for myself. As secretary of state, I stood up for America and for American values. And now as a presidential candidate, and, if by the glory of God, president, I refuse to sit down when I need to stand up for what is right. Tonight, the Republican Party has chosen a path of prosperity and a road forward of patriotic optimism. As this campaign enters its final stages, I can't express enough gratitude for saying once and for all that Sen. Cruz's baseless, pathetic attacks, are not worthy of the presidency."

Cruz meanwhile held onto his win in Missouri and minor win in North Carolina as a sign that voters wanted him to stay in the race. But with Condi Rice posting a 169 delegate lead, the Cruz machine was beginning to unravel.

UP NEXT: Arizona and Utah. Cruz has a Mormon problem. Polling and more news coming soon.

[Progressive]

THE BOOK OF 'MOURNIN' FOR CRUZ? PERHAPS NOT

The Lead Up

After Rice's strong showing in Super Tuesday II Primary states, the focus re-centered on the March 22, 2016 contests: The Arizona Primary and the Utah Caucuses. More specifically, the contests were largely focused on the Mormon vote. Polls throughout the race showed an uneasiness with Rice but a distrust of Cruz. Mitt Romney and John Huntsman, Republican Mormon leaders, threw their weight behind Rice, but Cruz was organizing a strong grassroots efforts among religious leaders in both Utah and Arizona. Further, in Arizona, Cruz was coalescing support from anti-immigration advocates.



At a forum in Arizona on immigration, Cruz endorsed the idea of building a border wall between the United States and Mexico. Gaining momentum among movement conservatives, Cruz debuted a new hashtag and slogan campaign "#BigTheWall, Cruz for all!" Was this enough to stop Rice's momentum? Polls showed almost 33% of Utah Republicans were still undecided. Further, the day after the Super Tuesday II primaries, Rice had a 46% to 37% lead in Arizona. The night before the Arizona race, Rice lead 48% to 45%.

RESULTS

Arizona
Condi Rice            49.6%
Ted Cruz                 48.4%

Utah
Ted Cruz                 49.9%
Condi Rice                48.9%

Delegate Count
Condi Rice          779
Ted Cruz            554

The Fallout

Despite pulling off an upset win in the Utah Caucuses, Cruz remains significantly behind Rice after her squeaker win in Arizona. The terrain only gets more tricky for Cruz with a few exceptions: primaries in states like Indiana and Nebraska can provide wins for Cruz. With 1,237 delegates required to win the Republican nomination, and 811 delegates remaining, both candidates can claim a legitimate chance at winning the nomination, though, Cruz's is undoubtedly more narrow. Cruz has said that he is staying in the race until the convention to ensure conservatives a chance at victory "as shoes continue to drop about Rice's character and convictions."

NEXT UP: Wisconsin Primary
LATEST POLLS: (Wisconsin GOP) Rice 46% - Cruz 41% (National GOP) Rice 48% - Cruz 41% (National General) Rice 47% - Clinton 42%, Rice 43% - Sanders 43%, Cruz 39% - Clinton 45%, Cruz 40%, Sanders 49%

[Progressive]

Interesting - I think Cruz won Utah in 2016 largely because he wasn't Trump. In a close race like this, I have to wonder how he would answer the "Are Mormons Christians?" question that would inevitably come up. Personally, I don't think his answer would be satisfactory to Mormons, though he is known to be a bit of a panderer!

I think you bring up to really good points: 1) Mormons in Utah did not "like" Cruz, but he was better than Trump; 2) Mormons and Evangelicals have often not been mutually fond of one another.

I think my last post tries to address this to some degree. In this TL, primarily, suspicions around Rice's private life, and a strong effort by the Cruz campaign to show Mormons that Rice would not appoint SCOTUS nominees, etc., who comported with their world view, led to a souring of Rice's image among mormons. Still, Rice pulled it off with institutional support from the Romney machine and I suppose to a lesser extent, moderate-Huntsman-style voters. To the second point, I think Cruz (just like IRL in 2016) tried to show himself to be a transactional politician to these voters. "Vote for me, and you'll get X."

Nonetheless, similarly to Hillary's status among voters this year, Condi is experiencing turbulence with personal favorability, likability, and the "trust factor." Stay tuned for Wisconsin, it's going to be a bumpy road to the nomination, and a convention like you've never seen. Stay tuned!

[Progressive]

WISCONSIN PRIMARY: APRIL 5, 2016

RESULTS
Ted Cruz                52.3%
Condi Rice               47.7%

In an event that sent political shockwaves through the country tonight, Ted Cruz managed to out-badger Condi Rice in the Badger State. After continued leaks about the RNC's involvement in advancing Condi Rice's political interests, and encouraging Rand Paul to stay in the race, Ted Cruz capitalized on Republican voters' trust issues with Condi Rice. Additionally, Cruz's Wisconsin win underscores his strong ground game in states with a strong conservative base, especially in single-state primary nights where he is able to fight 1-on-1 against Rice. The next primary contest is New York, where Republican voters dole out 95 delegates. Rice is expected to win big in New York. Cruz has conceded that he will probably not win the state, but he will play to win certain Congressional districts (allotting several delegates) in rural Upstate and in Orthodox Jewish/Hasidic communities in and around New York City. Cruz criticized Rice for campaigning around New York with Donald Trump, mocking their "shared New York, limousine liberal values." While Rice remains substantially ahead in the delegate count, Cruz continues to keep a viable but certainly steep path open to winning the nomination outright.

Interesting national polling data after Wisconsin actually shows the national Republican primary race tightening, with Rice hitting 50% of the vote, but Cruz earning 45% of Republicans. Further, there is a clear enthusiasm gap. 72% of Cruz voters report being enthusiastic or excited about supporting Cruz, while Rice voters are only 54% enthusiastic or excited about supporting their candidate. Perhaps this accounts for stronger than expected results for Cruz in states with palpable conservative bases.

DELEGATE COUNT
Condi Rice          787
Ted Cruz            588

POLLING
New York (GOP): Rice 61%, Cruz 24%
Connecticut (GOP): Rice 55%, Cruz 21%
Delaware (GOP): Rice 46%, Cruz 38%
Maryland (GOP): Rice 50%, Cruz 33%
Pennsylvania (GOP): Rice 47%, Cruz 42%
Rhode Island (GOP): Rice 62%, Cruz 19%

GOP CONTESTS SO FAR
RED = RICE
BLUE = CRUZ
GREEN = PAUL

[Progressive]

NEW YORK PRIMARY: APRIL 19, 2016

RESULTS
Condi Rice             69.4%
Ted Cruz                 30.2%

The Fallout

It seems that the Rice empire has struck back in the Empire State after a humiliating, but close, defeat in Wisconsin on April 5. Rice clobbered Cruz across the state, though, it appears, that Cruz may have won the 7th Congressional district, a district with nearly 33,000 Yiddish speakers, many of whom are social conservative members of various Hasidic sects. Therefore, Cruz will in fact net some delegates from the New York primary.

With momentum from a big win in the Big Apple, Rice's team is hoping to sew up the nomination next week, April 26, with Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island Republicans (and Democrats) voting. Rice and Cruz are both spending big on Pennsylvania, but it may all be for naught. The vast majority of Pennsylvania's delegates are allocated via Congressional district, and, Cruz may win Central Pennsylvania districts handily. Nonetheless, a clean sweep on April 26 will certainly boost Rice's efforts.

A brief note on the Democratic nominating contest: At this point in the race, with such a large win in New York, it appears that Hillary Clinton has foreclosed any serious paths forward for Bernie Sanders, and the GOP candidates have pivoted their Democratic attacks against Clinton.

A brief note on the Republican delegate count: There are just 674 delegates remaining. If Cruz were to win all 674 remaining delegates, he would receive 1,268 delegates, just 31 delegates more than needed to clinch the nomination outright. Thus, while Cruz is not mathematically eliminated, Rice's latest string of wins have seriously wounded Cruz's chances of having a serious opportunity to clinch the nomination. As a result of the mathematic unlikelihood, Cruz is going to take extreme steps to injure Rice's standing as a likely nominee.

NEXT UP: April 26, 2016 primary contests! Stay tuned!

DELEGATES
Condi Rice          876
Ted Cruz            594