What happened to Kasich?

[Fuzzy Bear]

This part of the campaign is, very much, for the base.  Kasich will not do well at it.  Given the level of desire for "an outsider", coupled with the broadening of the definition "outsider", Kasich's normal strengths (breadth and depth of experience, support from an incredibly key state, ability to appeal to moderate independents) aren't working for him here.  He's sort of got a claim of it being "his turn", but it's not as literal as, say, McCain's or Romney's, and Jeb Bush has cut in line on that one.

If the fundamental structure of the GOP race doesn't change, what will have to happen to stop Donald Trump is for the Establishment to make a deal with one of the anti-Establishment candidates, even Ted Cruz.  If the structure of the race shifts away from this to where, say, 30% or so of the GOP populace are demanding an outsider,  Kasich could well make his move.  A Kasich-Fiorina ticket might just be the ticket to beat (although I think Fiorina's real liabilities will bring her down, and she doesn't have Trump's money).  The real problem for Kasich is that the GOP is more reluctant to "get real" than ever before.  This is a GOP that could well nominate a Trump or a Cruz and lose the Electoral College by over 400 EV.