SUSA: Conway still up by 5!!!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

15% undecided seems a little high at this point. In any case, after 2014, SUSA is junk until proven otherwise in KY. But even if this poll is accurate, the race remains a Toss-Up. It is a bad sign for Conway that he hasn't even crossed 45% yet.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I still am surprised that, after the disasterous race he ran against Rand Paul, Kentucky Democrats thought, yea, this is our guy in Jack Conway. He may beat Bevin, but he's an almost certain loss for re-election.

Will the GOP even still exist in 2019?

Quit trolling. Hillary's not winning in your state.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The downballot results:

SOS:
Grimes (D) - 46%
Knipper (R) - 38%

AG
Beshear (D) - 38%
Westerfield (R) - 38%

Auditor
Edelen (D)- 35%
Harmon (R)- 33%

Treasurer
Ball (R) - 35%
Nelson (D) - 33%

Ag. Commissioner
Quarles (R) - 34%
Spann (D) - 31%

Like Westerfield or Harmon have any chance at all. The others actually sound pretty close to what I'd expect.

Of course, Grimes is way ahead, which isn't surprising at all.

Why is Grimes being way ahead expected? McConnell  clobbered her by the 2nd widest margin of his career. Only in 2002 when Democrats didn't seriously contest the race did McConnell win by more than he did in 2014.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

They're calling La too LR since its an offyear election. Same with MO gov and OH sen. Dems are tied or leading. Sabato needs to reevaluate  his methology, because Dems are winning.

Is an R ever seriously leading with you. EVER?

PLEASE stop hacking. Take the weekend off. Thank you.

Apparently never. His final 2014 prediction had Pryor winning.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

All the polls had Dems overstating the polls in 2014, but AR had Beebe winning winning and I was hoping Pryor would upset.

If you look at user predictions, alot of users have Edwards winning.

Sabato also has OH Senate as LR and Strickland has been leading in polls. Its no worse than a tossup.

Its a user prediction stop taking it seriously, we want to max all our gains in both parties.

User predictions right before the election are supposed to be what you think will happen based on concrete reasoning, not what you want to happen