Predict the Vienna state election
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Poll
Question: Plus: Who will WIN the state election ?
#1
SPÖ		  
#2
FPÖ		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 24

Author Topic: Predict the Vienna state election  (Read 2575 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« on: September 30, 2015, 01:29:10 PM »
« edited: October 04, 2015, 06:05:01 AM by Tender Branson »
My prediction:

36.7% SPÖ (-7.6%)
33.8% FPÖ (+8.0%)
11.8% Greens (-0.8%)
  9.1% ÖVP (-4.9%)
  6.1% NEOS (+5.4% - as LIF in 2010)
  1.7% Wien Anders (+1.7%)
  0.4% GFW (+0.4%)
  0.3% WWW (+0.3%)
  0.1% Others (only running in a handful of districts)

Turnout: 71.2% (+3.6%)

...

Current polling:

36-38% SPÖ
34-35% FPÖ
11-13% Greens
08-10% ÖVP
05-06% NEOS
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CrabCake
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Posts: 19,260
Kiribati


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« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2015, 01:31:27 PM »
Sorry what is the threshold again? Is there a chance ANDAS could make it in?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2015, 01:35:09 PM »
Quote from: Crab on September 30, 2015, 01:31:27 PM
Sorry what is the threshold again? Is there a chance ANDAS could make it in?

5% and No (they have virtually no campaign budget).
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SNJ1985
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,277
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.19, S: 7.57

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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2015, 09:50:51 AM »
36% SPÖ
34% FPÖ
12% Greens
9% ÖVP
6% NEOS
2% Wien Anders
0.5% GFW
0.4% WWW
0.1% Others
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DavidB.
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Posts: 13,617
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2015, 11:00:44 AM »
« Edited: October 01, 2015, 11:03:27 AM by DavidB. »
SPÖ 36.2% (-8.1%)
FPÖ 31.2% (+5.4%)
Greens 12.2% (-0.4%)
ÖVP 8.8% (-5.2%)
NEOS 6.9% (new)
ANDAS 2.9% (new)
WWW 1.1% (new)
GFW 0.6% (new)

Turnout: 69.2% (+1.6%)

This is a less well-educated guess than in the Upper Austrian election, because I haven't seen many recent polls on this, so I might revise it before the election.

I think that the SPÖ's floor is higher than many people expect, that the FPÖ is being overpolled, that the Greens will slightly be hurt by ANDAS, and that the ÖVP will lose many voters to NEOS.
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Ex-Assemblyman Steelers
Steelers
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Serbia and Montenegro


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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2015, 04:56:34 AM »
It's shame for that leftist coalition that can't cross threshold.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2015, 12:58:05 PM »
Updated my prediction in the OP.

PS: A good friend of mine who's a doctor and who lives in Vienna said he'll vote NEOS.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #7 on: October 09, 2015, 11:57:16 AM »
Bump:

Only 2 days left to post your predictions and vote !
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DavidB.
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Posts: 13,617
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


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« Reply #8 on: October 10, 2015, 07:30:58 PM »
New prediction.

SPÖ 37.9% (-6.4%)
FPÖ 35.1% (+9.3%)
Greens 10.1% (-2.5%)
ÖVP 9.0% (-5.0%)
NEOS 5.6% (new)
ANDAS 1.5% (new)
WWW 0.4% (new)
GFW 0.4% (new)

Turnout: 72.2% (+4.6%)
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Helsinkian
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Finland


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« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2015, 12:05:15 AM »
Just throwing something here:

FPÖ 35.5%
SPÖ 35.0%
Greens 11.5%
ÖVP 8.5%
NEOS 6.0%
All others 3.5%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2015, 12:35:25 AM »
I pretty much nailed the Green/ÖVP and NEOS percentage with my prediction, but underestimated the SPÖ by 3, while overestimating the FPÖ by 3 and ANDAS by 0.5

Anyway, all our predictions sucked ...
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FredLindq
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2015, 07:57:10 AM »
What happened?!

Why did all opinion polls and predictions overestimate the support off FPÖ?!

Was it the anti-FPÖ campaign by the SPÖ in the final days?!
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2015, 07:59:26 AM »
« Edited: October 13, 2015, 08:06:42 AM by Tender Branson »
Quote from: FredLindq on October 13, 2015, 07:57:10 AM
What happened?!

Why did all opinion polls and predictions overestimate the support off FPÖ?!

Was it the anti-FPÖ campaign by the SPÖ in the final days?!

Definitely looks like it. The SPÖ received some loan-votes from the Greens, who wanted to prevent a FPÖ-victory. Also, it seems many SPÖ-voters stayed loyal with their party after flirting with voting FPÖ before and telling pollsters so.
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