CNBC sets rules for next GOP debate: 3% floor for main debate, 1% for kids table

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/30/cnbc-republican-debate-criteria.html

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[Mr. Morden]

That is a weird way of phrasing it.  They’ll average the polls for the big kids’ table, rounding from 2.5% up to 3%.  What about the kiddie table?  From the way they word it, it sounds like you just need to be at 1% in *one* poll.

Anyway, we’re already in the polling window, and we have four polls from their list:

CNN, Bloomberg, Fox, and NBC/WSJ

Based on the current averages, the following candidates would make the big kids table debate:

Trump
Carson
Fiorina
Rubio
Bush
Cruz
Kasich
Huckabee
Christie
Paul

Paul is at 2.75%, so he’s close to not making it, but is currently saved by rounding.  Here’s where the other candidates are:

Santorum 0.75%
Jindal 0.5%
Pataki 0.5%
Gilmore 0%
Graham 0%

Jindal, Pataki, and Santorum have essentially no chance of making the big kids’ table, but if they only need 1 poll where they’re at 1%, then I guess they’ve already qualified for the kiddie table at least.  Gilmore and Graham have been at 0% in all four polls so far, so they don’t even qualify for that (yet).

[Likely Voter]

I like that they have switched to a basic criteria to qualify. I had suggested 2% average, they have gone for 2.5%. But sad to see they caved into pressure to have another undercard.

Also  I don't understand why they don't include live phone University Polls like Quinnipiac, Monmouth and USAToday/Suffolk. If the University polls were included (as they were for both Fox and CNN) it could make a big difference. For example, currently Paul would fall to the 6PM debate and Graham would qualify for the 6PM debate.

[Maxwell]

What's the point of having a kiddie debate with, like, 3 candidates?

[Green Line]

Whyy is there another kiddie table debate? Its time to cull the herd.  Someone registering 1% at this point has no chance, its too late.

There's already been two kiddie debates. How many opportunities are these losers going to get?

[Mr. Morden]

WaPo did their own average of the relevant polls, and came up with this:

[The Other Castro]

There will almost definitely be more FOX and CNN polls before the deadline, and maybe even two from each. I'm guessing ABC and Bloomberg won't have a new polls out in time. There's a good chance that CBS releases a poll before the deadline, but NBC (based on past release trends) won't have a new one out unless they specifically put out a new poll earlier than usual because it's their own debate.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Whyy is there another kiddie table debate? Its time to cull the herd.  Someone registering 1% at this point has no chance, its too late.

There's already been two kiddie debates. How many opportunities are these losers going to get?

In 2012, everyone notable got to debate right up to their withdrawal (except Johnson, who the media selectively excluded by not including him in any polls
). They're trying to apply the same metric here without having 14 candidates on stage all at once.

[Mr. Morden]

Whyy is there another kiddie table debate? Its time to cull the herd.  Someone registering 1% at this point has no chance, its too late.

There's already been two kiddie debates. How many opportunities are these losers going to get?

In 2012, everyone notable got to debate right up to their withdrawal (except Johnson, who the media selectively excluded by not including him in any polls
). They're trying to apply the same metric here without having 14 candidates on stage all at once.

I guess Roemer and McCotter didn't count as "notable". 

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Looks like they are trying to kick Rand out

He shouldn't have even been in the 2nd varsity debate.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'd say Graham has a 60% chance of making it to kiddie. Gilmore has a 10% chance. Paul has a 40% chance of staying in grownup.

[Skye]

At this point, kiddie table seems like a total waste.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Bush not being in the center 3 is insane.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bush not being in the center 3 is insane.

Even worse than that, he's in 5th place.

[ShadowRocket]

I don't see the point of the JV debate since it may very well have only three candidates. Plus, the CNN one didn't give anyone a boost up like Fox's did for Fiorina. Maybe that'll happen with this one for somebody, but I'm skeptical.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Bush not being in the center 3 is insane.

Bush is running a terrible campaign and embracing his establishment message. Do you just expect because he's the 'frontrunner' (because Politico or 538 told you so) that he should be one of the top people? Sorry, Republican voters don't like him.

I would just give up on a secondary debate all together. Its useless, nobody watches it, and its three people. It may actually be up to six if Rand slips even more and Gilmore and Graham get up to 1% in a poll. Though I doubt Gilmore will get 1%. It looks like its just a repeat of last time without Walker.

Not sure why you decided to respond with such a condescending post. I am aware that Bush is not the frontrunner and has not been for a while now. His candidacy has been unequivocally terrible and he's only still in the race because he raised a ton of money before people realized how rusty he was and his last name. Me saying it's "insane" is a catch-all for the amazement, jubilation, and surprise relative to the initial expectations of how far this race has come.

I do agree that the undercard debate should be cut. This rounding up to save Paul is silly too. It's just more prolonging dead-end candidacies.

[Why]

Should be top 6 in the debate, Trump, Carson, Fiorina, Rubio, Bush and Cruz.

I originally thought no other debate but I guess the other 7 who qualify can have there own kiddies debate.

[Higgs]

Funny how Graham won the last kiddie debate and probably won't even make it to the next one.

[Senator Cris]

UPDATE WITH NEW CBS POLL:

Making the main debate (>2.5% is required):

Trump 23.8%
Carson 17.8%
Fiorina 10.4%
Rubio 9.4%
Bush 8.4%
Cruz 6.6%
Christie 3.6%
Kasich 3.6%
Huckabee 3.2%
Paul 3.2%

Making the kids debate (1% in at least 1 poll is required):

Santorum 0.8%
Jindal 0.4%
Pataki 0.2%

Not making any debate (0% in all polls):

Graham 0%
Gilmore 0%

If these numbers will stay, this is how the stage will look like (Christie/Kasich and Huckabee/Paul might be switched):

MAIN DEBATE:

Huckabee  Christie  Bush  Fiorina  Trump  Carson  Rubio  Cruz  Kasich  Paul

KIDS DEBATE:

Pataki  Santorum  Jindal

[/]

Ouch, Graham. Ouch.

[mencken]

Improved podium position:
Fiorina
Rubio
Christie

Diminished podium position:
Bush
Cruz

[ElectionsGuy]

Didn't Graham get 1% in that PPP national poll?

[Senator Cris]

Didn't Graham get 1% in that PPP national poll?

Only NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox, CNN and Bloomberg polls are recognized by CNBC.

[Oakvale]

Why even bother with the kiddie debate? Kick those losers out.

Set the criteria for the proper debate at 5% minimum. No CLOWNS on stage.

[The Mikado]

Why even bother with the kiddie debate? Kick those losers out.

Set the criteria for the proper debate at 5% minimum. No CLOWNS on stage.

But...but Atlas would be sad that their champion Kasich didn't make it in!