CNBC sets rules for next GOP debate: 3% floor for main debate, 1% for kids table

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Sad to see Graham go; I really liked his performance in the last debate and TBH he's one of the better Republicans.

[eric82oslo]

Sad to see Graham go; I really liked his performance in the last debate and TBH he's one of the better Republicans.

Absolutely. He's someone actually having fun, how rare is that in a politician nowadays. Jindal and Cruz are the diamentrically opposites of Graham, they're both allergic to fun. On the other hand you have Rubio who also likes to have fun once in a while. And Carson of course.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Sad to see Graham go; I really liked his performance in the last debate and TBH he's one of the better Republicans.

Absolutely. He's someone actually having fun, how rare is that in a politician nowadays. Jindal and Cruz are the diamentrically opposites of Graham, they're both allergic to fun. On the other hand you have Rubio who also likes to have fun once in a while. And Carson of course.

Trump is having loads of fun on the debate stage. Though he isn't a a traditional "politician"

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I wonder if this will cause Graham to drop out. I'm pretty sure Christie would have if he was excluded from the adults' table last time.

[eric82oslo]

Sad to see Graham go; I really liked his performance in the last debate and TBH he's one of the better Republicans.

Absolutely. He's someone actually having fun, how rare is that in a politician nowadays. Jindal and Cruz are the diamentrically opposites of Graham, they're both allergic to fun. On the other hand you have Rubio who also likes to have fun once in a while. And Carson of course.

Trump is having loads of fun on the debate stage. Though he isn't a a traditional "politician"

Trump's facial expressions are all epic.

[The Other Castro]

I feel like a CNN poll is coming out tomorrow, so that'll probably be his last chance.

Edit: CNN poll was just for Dems. ABC has a poll tomorrow for Dems, I don't know of any more polls being done for GOP besides the NBC one that just came out (Graham and Gilmore at 0)

[Likely Voter]

Update with new NBC/WSJ poll (avg includes 7 total polls)

No change since last poll except Fiorina dropped to 4th behind Rubio (but that still keeps her in the second tier for podium position). Graham and Gilmore have still failed to get 1% in a single qualified poll so neither have yet earned a spot in the kiddie table debate which still has only 3.

PRIMETIME DEBATE (need 2.5%)

Trump   24.00
Carson   19.14
Rubio   9.86
Fiorina   9.14
Bush   8.29
Cruz   7.43
Huckabee   3.43
Kasich   3.14
Christie   2.86
Paul   2.86

EARLY DEBATE (need 1% in one poll)
Santorum   0.57
Jindal   0.43
Pataki   0.29

NOT QUALIFIED
Graham   0.00
Gilmore   0.00


There are only 2 days left for new polls, with CNN and ABC/WaPo appearing possible. Paul and Christie are on the bubble but should be safe. If two polls come out, then they both need to average more than 1%. If only 1 new poll comes out they are safe no matter what (even if they only get 0%).

[Angel of Death]

This is getting ridiculous. Either divide the candidates more evenly or get rid of the JV debate altogether.

[Vega]

Oh c'mon. Why exclude Gilmore and Graham? The JV debate needs as many people as it can get.

[FLgirl]

Update with new NBC/WSJ poll (avg includes 7 total polls)

No change since last poll except Fiorina dropped to 4th behind Rubio (but that still keeps her in the second tier for podium position). Graham and Gilmore have still failed to get 1% in a single qualified poll so neither have yet earned a spot in the kiddie table debate which still has only 3.

PRIMETIME DEBATE (need 2.5%)

Trump   24.00
Carson   19.14
Rubio   9.86
Fiorina   9.14
Bush   8.29
Cruz   7.43
Huckabee   3.43
Kasich   3.14
Christie   2.86
Paul   2.86

EARLY DEBATE (need 1% in one poll)
Santorum   0.57
Jindal   0.43
Pataki   0.29

NOT QUALIFIED
Graham   0.00
Gilmore   0.00


There are only 2 days left for new polls, with CNN and ABC/WaPo appearing possible. Paul and Christie are on the bubble but should be safe. If two polls come out, then they both need to average more than 1%. If only 1 new poll comes out they are safe no matter what (even if they only get 0%).

It happened. As of now, Rubio will standing in between Trump and Bush, correct?

[Averroës Nix]

I suppose the silver lining of Bush's declining %, from his perspective, is that he's now polling poorly enough that he won't have to stand next to Trump again.

[bballrox4717]

According to the polling averages, its:

Paul Kasich Cruz Fiorina Carson Trump Rubio Bush Huckabee Christie

[The Other Castro]

Jindal thinking of skipping the kiddie table debate.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/bobby-jindal-ponders-skipping-next-debate/article/2574464

[The Mikado]

Jindal thinking of skipping the kiddie table debate.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/bobby-jindal-ponders-skipping-next-debate/article/2574464

So if Jindal skips and Graham doesn't qualify, CNBC will devote an hour of near-prime time for Santorum vs Pataki?

And that's assuming that Pataki can hitchhike to Boulder in time.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Jindal thinking of skipping the kiddie table debate.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/bobby-jindal-ponders-skipping-next-debate/article/2574464

So if Jindal skips and Graham doesn't qualify, CNBC will devote an hour of near-prime time for Santorum vs Pataki?

And that's assuming that Pataki can hitchhike to Boulder in time.

It would be a very contrasting debate a centrist Republican versus frothy.....but it would still be pointless.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Jindal thinking of skipping the kiddie table debate.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/bobby-jindal-ponders-skipping-next-debate/article/2574464

So if Jindal skips and Graham doesn't qualify, CNBC will devote an hour of near-prime time for Santorum vs Pataki?

And that's assuming that Pataki can hitchhike to Boulder in time.

It would be a very contrasting debate a centrist Republican versus frothy.....but it would still be pointless.

Nah. They can just recite poems they wrote about how much Hillary and Obama suck. Not like policy discussions will revive either of their campaigns, so why not?

[Eraserhead]

Kind of bummed Trump and Bush won't be standing next to each other this time.

[King]

Kind of bummed Trump and Bush won't be standing next to each other this time.

It's bad for Jeb, too. The only strength Jeb has had is that he's the only candidate in the race taller than Donald.  They will be in a split screen in this one.

Trump will get to Tower over Rubio and Carson now and exude even more dominance.

[Lyin' Steve]

I'm imagining Jeb walking towards Trump to try to talk to him and Trump saying "Go back to the edge of the stage where you belong, Jeb."
How embarrassing to be in fifth place.

[Likely Voter]

Update with new CNN poll (avg includes 8 total polls)

This is probably the final update. The only change for the main debate is that Paul has actually jumped past Christie and is tied with Kasich for 8th place. Unsure how they will decide which one of them gets the better podium position and which one gets stuck on the end. As for the kiddie table debate, Graham has finally made it in, so Gilmore is again the odd man out.

PRIMETIME DEBATE (need 2.5%)
Trump   24.38
Carson   19.50
Rubio   9.63
Fiorina   8.50
Bush   8.25
Cruz   7.00
Huckabee   3.63
Kasich   3.13
Paul   3.13
Christie   3.00

EARLY DEBATE (need 1% in one poll)
Santorum   0.75
Jindal   0.38
Pataki   0.25
Graham   0.13

NOT QUALIFIED
Gilmore   0.00


So essentially the CNBC debate lineups will be exactly the same as the CNN debate, with the only differences being Rubio and Fiorina moving their podiums closer to The Donald and Bush and Cruz are moving farther away (and of course no Walker).

[Mister Mets]

The main debate should be between Trump, Carson, Fiorina, Cruz, Jeb and Rubio.

There's enough of a gap between them and the guys who aren't averaging four percent to consign them to the undercard.

[Likely Voter]

Update with new ABC poll (from this thread https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=221424.0)
(avg includes 9 total polls)

This is almost certainly going to be the last poll for the CNBC debate (unless Bloomberg or CBS surprises and has a new one). The change since the last one is that the contest below Trump and Carson has tightened up with Bush and Fiorina tied for fourth and Kasich, Christie and Paul are tied for eighth. More decimals don't help so they will have to come up with tie-breakers to determine who gets the better podium positions. Gilmore is still out.


PRIMETIME DEBATE (need 2.5%)

Trump   25.222
Carson   19.778
Rubio   9.667
Fiorina   8.111
Bush   8.111
Cruz   6.889
Huckabee   3.556
Kasich   3.000
Paul   3.000
Christie   3.000

EARLY DEBATE (need 1% in one poll)
Santorum   0.667
Jindal   0.333
Pataki   0.333
Graham   0.222

NOT QUALIFIED
Gilmore   0.000


BTW, some candidates are really benefiting from the polls immediately following the CNN debate. If you were to average the last 5 polls (like FOX did for the first debate) then Kasich and Christie would not meet the 2.5% criteria, and Fiorina would drop to 6th place (with Cruz in 4th).

[FLgirl]

Tie-breaker comes down to what CNBC think will cause better fireworks - Rubio in between Trump and Jeb or Jeb beside Cruz (in light of his brother's recent comments). I vote for the former.

[Mr. Morden]

I hadn't thought about it before, but I guess based on the press releases for both this debate and the Fox Business debate, both of the two upcoming GOP debates will be about economic issues.  We won't have another GOP debate covering social issues or foreign policy until mid-December.

Any thoughts on how this might play out, that both of these next two GOP debates are economy-focused?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I hadn't thought about it before, but I guess based on the press releases for both this debate and the Fox Business debate, both of the two upcoming GOP debates will be about economic issues.  We won't have another GOP debate covering social issues or foreign policy until mid-December.

Any thoughts on how this might play out, that both of these next two GOP debates are economy-focused?

This probably is Trump's best area to shine in, so I think Trump should do moderately well here.