The New New Deal

[Orser67]

Hi all. This is a prologue. Future posts will go more in-depth.

Nov 2, 2004: Mark Foley wins election as the United States Senator from Florida, succeeding Bob Graham.

Sep 1, 2005: President Bush lands in Louisiana, and tours storm-damaged areas with Governor Kathleen Blanco. While the storm damages numerous communities in the Gulf of Mexico, many are thankful that New Orleans wasn't completely leveled. FEMA receives strong marks for it disaster response, and Bush and others credit the Homeland Security Act for streamlining the bureaucracy.

May 2, 2006: Navy Seals successfully conduct Operation Zeus's Lightning, killing Osama bin Laden in his compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan. President Bush credits the CIA's enhanced interrogation techniques for providing intelligence on OBL's location. Bush's popularity, which had been mired in the mid-40s, jumps back up to a strong fifty five percent.

Nov 7, 2006: Democrats pick up a net of ten seats in the House and three seats (PA, OH, RI) in the Senate, cutting into the Republican majority in both chambers of Congress. Though Democrats celebrate their gains, analysts register surprise at the meager size of the Democratic victory given the unpopularity of the Iraq War and a series of apparently minor Republican scandals. However, many voters are turned off by what they see as constant demonizations of Bush, who remains reasonably popular.

June 30, 2007: The Senate decisively defeats Bush’s Comprehensive Immigration Reform. The battle over the bill ignites a conservative resurgence in Republican ranks.

February 5, 2008: McCain's dominant Super Tuesday performance essentially hands him the Republican nomination, as George Allen and Mitt Romney both drop out of the race. Though Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo, and Mike Hucakabee continue to win a handful of delegates.

May 6, 2008: On the heels of several strong performances, Clinton decisively wins the North Carolina and Indiana primaries. Clinton rolls out several superdelegate endorsements, giving her a majority of delegates. Obama calls Clinton to concede the race.

Aug 27, 2008: Barack Obama makes history as the first black vice presidential nominee in history, after his impressive challenge to Hillary Clinton came up short. Many Democrats argue that the Clinton/Obama ticket is one of the strongest tickets in history. Though Clinton had wanted to choose a loyalist for the VP position, she picks Obama to unify the party and boost turnout in what looks to be a very close election.

Sep 1, 2008: John McCain accepts the Republican nomination. Though he considers naming Mitt Romney, George Allen, Joe Lieberman, or Condoleezza Rice as his running mate, McCain chooses Paul Ryan as a candidate acceptable to both the establishment wing and the growing insurgent wing of the party.

Sep 7, 2008: Countrywide Financial declares bankruptcy. Though a few observers see this as a sign of greater troubles in the housing market, Countrywide's quick takeover by Bank of America ensures that it does not affect the campaign.

Nov 4, 2008: John McCain and Hillary Clinton tie in the electoral vote, 270-270. Clinton wins 50.0% of the popular vote while McCain takes 47.3%. Ralph Nader, running as the Green Party nominee, takes 1.5% of the popular vote, while Libertarian Bob Barr takes most of the remaining share of the popular vote. McCain wins Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, and Wisconsin by a cumulative total of 20,000 votes, while Clinton wins Virginia and Colorado by less than two percentage points. Democrats pick up two seats in the House, leaving the Republicans with a 221-214 majority. Democrats pick up five seats (CO, NH, NM, NC, VA) in the Senate, giving the party a 53-47 majority.

Jan 3, 2009: Under the terms of the 12th Amendment, the incoming Congress selects the president and vice president. The Senate quickly elects Barack Obama as vice president over Paul Ryan, the GOP's VP nominee. The House (in which a majority of state delegations selects the president) is deadlocked at 25-24-1. After two days of uncertainty, Gene Taylor of Mississippi switches parties, and McCain is elected president on a 26-24 vote. Hillary Clinton delivers a well-received concession speech in which she urges Democrats to accept McCain as their president. Despite a series of Republican scandals that came to light in 2007 and 2008, analysts credit McCain’s vigorous campaigning and Bush’s solid economy for giving Republicans a third term.

Jan 20, 2009: McCain takes office and immediately closes Guantanamo Bay, rendering many of the prisoners to various countries and transferring the remaining detainees to Fort Leavenworth. Among the McCain Cabinet are Secretary of State Joe Lieberman, Treasury Secretary Mitt Romney, Defense Secretary Sam Nunn, Attorney General Lindsey Graham, Secretary of Homeland Security Rudy Giuliani, and Secretary of Health and Human Services Mike Huckabee. Other high-ranking members of the administration include Tom Ridge, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Mark Salter, Rick Davis, James Baker, John Lehman, Richard Armitage, and Robert Zoellick.

[Orser67]

April 29, 2009: John McCain's 100th day in office. Opinion polls show him surprisingly popular given the bitter election, as McCain looks to forge a bipartisan healthcare reform bill. In domestic affairs, McCain tries to own the center between the Democratic Senate led by Harry Reid and the Republican House led by Dennis Hastert. McCain alienates many House Republicans by publicly considering a climate change bill and pushing comprehensive immigration reform. McCain also proposes tax cuts and domestic spending cuts that face opposition from the Senate.

June 10, 2009: McCain announces that US soldiers will remain in Iraq through 2012.

July 27, 2009: Encouraged by the McCain Administration, JP Morgan buys Bear Stearns, a New York investment bank that had heavily invested in subprime mortgages. Many in the market are spooked by the possibility of a housing bubble, but McCain assures the public that Bear Stearns is an isolated incident.

Sep 2, 2009: With the presence of a housing bubble now apparent, McCain requests that Congress create the Troubled Asset Relief Fund (TARF), a program which would allow the government to "bail out" several banks that were exposed to the housing bubble. While the Senate easily passes the bill, Hastert refuses to pass the bill after a majority of House Republicans object to the proposal. House Democrats attempt to pass a discharge petition to bring the bill to a vote, but the effort fails and Republicans decry the Democratic attempt to split the GOP.

Oct 1, 2009: In the face of growing economic problems, Congress passes a one year cut in payroll taxes.

Dec 15, 2009: After the failure of several major financial institutions, the House GOP consents to TARF. The bill passes 310-131, with with about 90 Republicans opposing the bill. Conservatives decry the big government intervention, while several liberals are wary of placing so much power in the hands of the McCain Administration.

Feb 30, 2010: Unemployment hits 12%, and many wonder if the US is in the midst of a second Great Depression. Meanwhile, protests erupt across Europe.

April 10, 2010: With unemployment reaching 14% and massive protests in the streets, McCain declares a national emergency and directs the Treasury Department to take direct control of the government-owned banks in an effort to get the economy going again. The government also takes direct control of Chevy and GM. Many members of both parties propose impeaching McCain, and a right-wing movement known as the "Tea Party" emerges in protest to McCain's policies. Treasury Secretary Mitt Romney resigns in protest of McCain’s actions.

June 17, 2010: A bill to leave the WTO picks up 60 votes in the House, with support on both the left and right. The vote surprises many who had viewed the bill as a stunt.

Sept 3, 2010: Economists announce that world GDP has fallen by 2% since the start of the financial crisis. Democrats begin referring to McCain as "McHoover."

Nov 2, 2010: Faced with a terrible economy and a divided party, Republicans suffer massive losses in the 2010 election. Democrats pick up 88 seats in the House, giving them a 309-136 majority. Republicans return less than 100 incumbents, as another couple dozen incumbents fall to primary challenges largely from the right. Thirty congressional Democrats form the Democratic Socialist Caucus (DSC), which positions itself to the left of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Nancy Pelosi wins election as Speaker while Jeb Hensarling takes control as minority leader. In the Senate, Democrats pick up eleven seats, giving them a 64-36 majority. The Senate leaders are Democrat Harry Reid and Republican Mitch McConnell. Democrats also win 28 of the 37 gubernatorial races up for election, as well as numerous state legislative seats. Democrats call on McCain to work with them to pass a massive stimulus bill to fight unemployment and grow the economy.

Senate map:

Among the new Senators are Democrats Mark Begich (AK), Gabrielle Giffords (AZ), Ron Klein (FL), Mike Thurmond (GA), Alexi Giannoulias (IL), Brad Ellsworth (IN), Roxanne Conlin (IA), Jack Conway (KY), Charlie Melancon (LA), Robin Carnahan (MO), Paul Hodes (NH), Brad Miller (NC), Joel Heitkamp (ND), Tim Ryan (OH), Joe Sestak (PA), and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD), as well as Republicans RauL Labrador (ID), Jerry Moran (KS), and Mike Lee (UT).

Among the newly-elected governors are Democrats John Hickenlooper (CO), Libby Mitchell (ME), Virg Bernero (MI), Diane Denish (NM), Andrew Cuomo (NY), Jari Askins (OK), John Kitzhaber (OR), Dan Onorato (PA), Tom Barrett (WI), Gavin Newsom (CA), Ned Lamont (CT), Roy Barnes (GA), Neil Abercrombie (HI), Mark Dayton (MN), Frank Caprio (RI), Scott Heidepriem (SD), Peter Shumlin (VT), Alex Sink (FL), Rory Reid (NV), Dan Hynes (IL), and Terry Goddard (AZ), as well as Republicans Sam Brownback (KS), Bill Haslam (TN), Matt Mead (WY), Bob Bentley (AL), Nikki Haley (SC), and Gary Herbert (UT).

Dec 1, 2010: Faced with a huge financial crisis, Congress extends the Bush tax cuts for an additional two years.

[Orser67]

Feb 2, 2011: John McCain suffers a heart attack, temporarily leaving him incapacitated.

Feb 4, 2011: Rumors of invocation of the 25th Amendment fly across the capital. Newly-elected Congressman Alan Grayson agitates for the impeachment of McCain, to the agitation of other Hill Democrats. After a period of deep thought, McCain decides to resign from office. Obama is sworn as the 45th president. Obama asks the majority of the Cabinet to stay on for now.

Feb 6, 2011: Obama makes a nationally-televised speech to the country*

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Feb. 11, 2011: Obama chooses Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln as his vice president. Lincoln won re-election in 2010 by moving to the left, and Obama views the choice as a way to court both the female vote and the blue collar vote. Though many Republicans feel that Obama should have picked a Republican to take his own place as vice president, the Senate quickly confirms Lincoln.

Feb 17, 2011: Obama replaces most other members of McCain’s cabinet. The most critical choice is Treasury Secretary, where Obama persuades Paul Volcker to come out of retirement. Obama tasks Volcker to work with Congress to develop both immediate recovery measures and long-term reforms. Obama picks former Clinton administration officials for several top roles in his administration, but the Treasury Department is the major exception as Obama emphasizes those with a history of skepticism towards Wall Street. Obama keeps Nunn in office as Defense Secretary, and chooses Kerry for State, Holder for Attorney General, Ron Klain as Chief of Staff. Obama also chooses Joseph Stiglitz as the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. Republicans criticize Obama for removing McCain's appointees and failing to include major Republicans in his cabinet. Media outlets on the left encourage Democrats to pass ambitious legislation, while those on the right argue that the president should pursue a bipartisan course at a time of national crisis.

*Note that this is heavily based on Obama's first state of the union in real life.