Brazil Municipal Elections, October 2016

[ag]

So, some actual results

Sao Paulo (90.09% reporting)
Joao Doria (PSDB) 53.29% - elected in the first round
Fernando Hadad (PT) 16.63%

Rio de Janeiro (99.99% reporting)
Crivella (PRB) 27.78% - run-off
Marselo Freixo (PSOL) 18.26% - run-off

Belo Horizonte (93.39% reporting)
Joao Leite (PSDB) 33.51% - run-off
Alexandre Kalil (PHS) 26.51% - run-off

Porto Alegre (100% reporting)
Nelson Marchezan Junior (PSDB) 29.84% - run-off
Sebastiao Melo (PMDB) 25.93% - run-off

[ag]

Fortaleza (100% reporting)
Roberto Claudio (PDT) 40.81% - run-off
Capitao Wagner (PR) 31.15% - run off

Recife (100% reporting)
Geraldo Julio (PSB) 49.34% - run-off
Joao Paulo (PT) 23.76% - run-off

Campinas (95.37% reporting)
Jonas Donzette (PSB) 65.76% - elected
Artur Orsi (PSD) 15.42%

Goiania (100% reporting)
Iris Rezende (PMDB) 40.47% - run-off
Vanderlan (PSB) 31.84% - run-off

Manaus (99.88% reporting)
Artur Neto (PSDB) 35.17% - run-off
Marcelo Ramos (PR) 24.85% - run-off

Salvador (98.68% reporting)
ACM Neto (DEM) 73.99% - elected
Alice Portugal (PC do B) 14.56%

Curitiba (100% reporting)
Rafael Greca (PMN) 38.38% - run-off
Ney Leprevost (PSD) 23.66% - run-off

[ag]

Pretty good performance by PSDB, actually, it seems. Pretty horrid for PT.

[ag]

A few more (state capitals, not previously mentioned)

Rio Branco
Alexandre (PT) 54.62% - elected
Sinhasique (PMDB) 32.29%
Seems like in Acre they still have not heard of what happened

Maceio (99.69 reporting)
Palmeira (PSDB) 46.88% - run-off
Almeida (PMDB) 24.71 - run-off

Macapa (100% reporting)
Clecio (REDE) 44.59% - run-off
Borges (PMDB) 26.37% - run-off

Vitoria (100% reporting)
Luciano (PPS) 43.82% - run-off
Neto (SD) 35.32%

Sao Luis (100% reporting)
Holanda Jr. (PDT) 45.66% - run-off
Braide (PMN) 21.34% - run-off

Cuiaba (99.91% reporting)
Pinheiro (PMDB) 34.15% run-off
Santos (PSDB) 28.40% run-off

Campo Grande (94.04% reporting)
Trad (PSD) 35.02% run-off
Modesto (PSDB) 26.63%
Bernal (PP) 25.39%
Here we still should wait for the identity of the second-place finisher, but PSDB seems likely

Belem (100% reporting)
Coutinho (PSDB) 31.02% run-off
Edmilson (PSOL) 29.50% run-off

Joao Pessoa (100% reporting)
Cartaxo (PSD) 59.67% - elected
Ramos (PSB) 33.54%

Teresina (100% reporting)
Filho (PSDB) 51.14% - elected
Pessoa (PSD) 39.77%

Natal (100% reporting)
Eduardo (PDT) 63.42% - elected
Kelps (SD) 13.37%

Porto Velho (99.84% reporting)
Hildon (PSDB) 27.23% run-off
Moraes (PTB) 26.10% run-off

Boa Vsita (90.84% reporting)
Teresa (PMDB) 79.50% - elected
Bare (PP) 9.45%

Florianopolis (100% reporting)
Loureiro (PMDB) 40.39% - run-off
Amin (PP) 24.57% - run-off

Aracaju (99.78% reporting)
Nogueira (PC do B) 38.77% - run-off
Filho (PSB) 38.08% - run-off

Palmas
Amastha (PSB) 52.38% - elected
Filho (PR) 31.43%

[ag]

So, other major municipalities, as per list.

Feira de Santana, BA
Ronaldo, DEM, 71.12% - elected
Neto, PT, 15.71%

Vitoria da Conquista, BA
Gusmao, PMDB, 47.82%, run-off
Raimundo, PT, 31.69%, run-off

Caucaia, CE
Amorim, PMB, 48.10%, run-off
Pessoa, PSDB, 31.79%, run-off

Cariacica, ES
Santos, PMDB, 41.89%, run-off
Juninho, PPS, 35.00%, run-off

Serra, ES
Vidigal, PDT, 48.30%, run-off
Audifax, REDE, 43.71%, run-off

Vila Velha, ES
Filho, PSDB, 37.80%, run-off
Fraga, PSD, 30.95%, run-off

Anapolis, GO
Gomes, PT, 29.92%, run-off
do Orion, PTB, 21.56%, run-off

Aparecida de Goiania, GO
Mendanha, PMDB, 59.99%, elected
Pereira, PSB, 21.11%

[Paleobrazilian]

Some graphs I intend to analyse later:

Number of elected Mayors by party: http://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2016/blog/eleicao-2016-em-numeros/post/psdb-e-psd-crescem-em-n-de-prefeituras-pt-encolhe.html

Number of elected Councilors by party: http://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2016/blog/eleicao-2016-em-numeros/post/pmdb-encolhe-pt-perde-quase-metade-e-psdb-cresce-nas-camaras.html

G-93 performance by party (elected Mayors on the 1st round + candidates that passed to the runoff:

[Paleobrazilian]

The same graph I just posted, but with more parties and showing whether the runoff candidate of each party finished the 1st round in 1st or 2nd place.

[ag]

Floor has fallen from under the PT. PSDB is on a roll.

[Paleobrazilian]

We'll talk about winners and losers on detail later, but there's one loser that must be singled out immediately: IBOPE. They had MANY awful polls, including São Paulo/SP, Belo Horizonte/MG, Porto Alegre/RS, Ribeirão Preto/SP, Belém/PA and so on. Many of them included once again a "shy Toucan" effect, similar to the shy Tory phenomenon usually seen in UK polls. Over the last years, IBOPE has constantly underpolled PSDB candidates, but never as badly as this year. The exception here is Belo Horizonte/MG, where João Leite (PSDB) was significantly overpolled. This may have to do with the method IBOPE uses on their polls: instead of polling people on the streets or robopolling, they still use smallish samples and an old method of visiting preselected homes and polling someone who's there. This probably causes an oversample of low income voters, thus the large mistakes we saw yesterday.

[buritobr]

Donald Trump was elected mayor of São Paulo.

Runoff in Rio de Janeiro is Bernie Sanders vs. Mike Huckabee

[ag]

Donald Trump was elected mayor of São Paulo.

Other than being a businessman, what else is Trump-like about him?

[buritobr]

Do you understand Portuguese?
http://www.trincheiras.com.br/2016/09/as-semelhancas-entre-joao-doria-e-donald-trump/

I am lazy to translate now

[ag]

Do you understand Portuguese?
http://www.trincheiras.com.br/2016/09/as-semelhancas-entre-joao-doria-e-donald-trump/

I am lazy to translate now

Like every Spanish-speaker, I do understand written Portuguese

Alas, the article you link says a lot about Trump and a lot about PSDB, but very little about Doria.

[Paleobrazilian]

PT just can't get a break. Over the last 2 days (i) the Federal Police has unveiled a corruption scheme that financed the campaign of Governor of Bahia Rui Costa (PT/BA), (ii) the Federal Court of Audit has indicated it'll reprove Dilma Rousseff's 2015 accounts, and (iii) the Federal Police has just indicted Lula yet again (the 3rd time this year).

[Paleobrazilian]

Time to take a look at the 1st round winners and losers:

Winners:

Governor of São Paulo Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) - probably the biggest winner. He made a risky move by betting on João Doria, and the gamble payed off handsomely, as Doria skyrocketed on polls and ended up winning with ease, something no one saw as possible. Plus, thanks to Alckmin, PSDB had a very strong showing in São Paulo, winning a huge lot of Municipalities, including important ones such as São José dos Campos, Piracicaba, Santos and Praia Grande. Plus, PSDB will be favored to win many important runoffs in São Paulo, like the ones which will happen in Ribeirão Preto, São Bernardo do Campo, Santo André, Jundiaí and Franca. Alckmin has shown political strength and has clearly stated his case for running for the presidency in 2018 (whether it'll be as a member of PSDB or PSB is something that remains to be seen, though).

PSDB - impossible not to recognize PSDB as a winner from this cycle. Not only they significantly increased the number of Municipalities they hold, they also won 14 G-93 Municipalities and are favored to win at least some 10 more. They also improved the number of Councilors they hold, despite an increased number of parties contesting the election this time. PSDB is probably at the strongest moment it's ever been since 2002 and momentum will be on their side for 2018 .
(As for Senator Aecio Neves, who happens to be PSDB's national chairman, I think it's still too early to evaluate whether he won or lost on this cycle. More on this after the runoff, when we'll have more info to consider)

Mayor-elect of São Paulo/SP João Doria (PSDB) - gained heroic credentials among center-right voters after such an impressive electoral showing. Some already speculate that he could run for Governor of São Paulo in 2018.

Mayor of Salvador/BA ACM Neto (DEM) - won reelection on a landslide after a very well rated 1st term. Already preparing his campaign for the Government of Bahia in 2018.

New right - with the demise of PT's government, the left has entered a crisis in Brazil and new right politicians have dully profited from this. João Doria, ACM Neto, Nelson Marchezan Jr. and some other winners from this cycle are all outspoken fiscal conservatives, who ran on a platform of balancing budgets, increasing efficiency of public spending and privatizing some public assets. Also, NOVO, the recently created party that is the 1st in Brazil that has an explicitly fiscally conservative platform has managed to elect Councilors in São Paulo/SP, Rio de Janeiro/RJ, Belo Horizonte/MG and Porto Alegre/RS. The pendulum has started to shift, I think.

Healthcare and public safety - those were the biggest concerns of voters this year, according to all polls.

Voter skepticism - almost 20% of all eligible voters didn't show up, a very high number in a Country where voting is mandatory. Plus, over 10% of all votes where nullified, showing that voters were unhappy with the options presented to them. In Rio de Janeiro/RJ, about 40% of all eligible voters either didn't turn out or nullified their votes for Mayor, showing their dissatisfaction.

Momentum for a large political reform - the electoral reforms brought last year were interesting and improved a few aspects of the electoral system in Brazil, IMO. However, there's still a lot to be done, as the large amount of skeptical voters show. There's now a broad consensus that political fragmentation has grown too big and that there are way too many non ideological, crony parties. This will probably lead up to the creation of a performance clause that's already being discussed by the Senate.

Losers:

The "coup" hypothesis - the biggest loser of the cycle, probably. Almost all the politicians that embraced the idea that Fr. President Dilma Rousseff was the victim of a coup were rejected by voters. Even PT gave up on their idea of trying to call a new presidential election before 2018 after they realized last Sunday that not only voters didn't buy their rhetoric, but also that they'd be trounced if such an election were held today.

PT - absolutely dismantled by voters last Sunday, PT has shrunk to it's 1990s stature. In fact, it may be even worse, as on the late 80s and early 90s they actually held some important Municipalities. Now they are only the 10th largest party by number of Mayors and most of the Municipalities where they won are nationally irrelevant. Ouch.

Fr. President Dilma Rousseff (PT/RS) - poor Dilma. Now, not only no one believes she was the victim of a coup, her presence on the campaign trail was absolutely toxic. The candidates that tried to show her on they side sank without trace.

Fr. Minister of the Environment Marina Silva (REDE/AC) - her party,, REDE, had a weak showing, failing to substantially improve it's standing. Right wing voters dubbed REDE "the watermelon party" (green on the outside, red on the inside). Left wing voters see REDE as PSDB 2.0. No one really knows what REDE stands for. And one day after the election, 7 members of REDE's national committee left the party claiming they have no clue whatsoever of what Marina Silva wants with REDE. All in, I'd say her stance for a presidential run in 2018 has significantly weakened.

Minister of Foreign Affars José Serra (PSDB/SP) - with Alckmin's strong performance in São Paulo, Senator Aecio Neves' strong position inside PSDB, Serra has probably lost his chance of running for President in 2018 as the PSDB candidate. If Serra wants to run for President for the 3rd time, he'll probably have to switch to some other party, likely PMDB.

Mayor of Rio de Janeiro/RJ Eduardo Paes (PMDB/RJ) - the Olympic Mayor chose the worst possible candidate to run for his succession and ended up failing miserably on the mission of electing a new PMDB name as Mayor of Rio de Janeiro. This will probably stop any chance he may have had of running for President, and will also weaken his likely campaign for the Government of Rio de Janeiro in 2018. He looked to be invincible as a candidate for the Government of Rio de Janeiro, now, after a major political blunder and worsening popularity ratings, looks vulnerable.

Senator Marta Suplicy (PMDB/SP) - at 71, this was probably her last chance to remain relevant and dream of running for the Presidency or the Government of São Paulo eventually. Now, a tough reelection battle waits for her in 2018.

[RodPresident]

PT just can't get a break. Over the last 2 days (i) the Federal Police has unveiled a corruption scheme that financed the campaign of Governor of Bahia Rui Costa (PT/BA), (ii) the Federal Court of Audit has indicated it'll reprove Dilma Rousseff's 2015 accounts, and (iii) the Federal Police has just indicted Lula yet again (the 3rd time this year).

Federal Police's raid on PT is based on very weak elements. Operation went to an advertising agency linked to Bahia's DEM. And some elements linked to PP (Progressive Party) weren't denounced because they're linked to Temer's government as Federal Savings Bank CEO Gilberto Occhi and PP caucus leader Aguinaldo Ribeiro.

[buritobr]

Ibope poll, today

Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivella 46%, Marcelo Freixo 29%

Belo Horizonte
Kalil 41%, João Leite 35%

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Well this is depressing, but expected.

I wonder if the PT can actually survive this onslaught, or it will be replaced by some new organisation that is less tainted.

What kind of reform would the "performance clause" be? Obviously kicking down a good number of the crony non-idealogical parties would be good, but could it deal with the biggest granddaddy of them (PMDB)?

[buritobr]

Datafolha, today
Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivella 43%, Marcelo Freixo 30% (Crivella 58%, Freixo 30% if you consider only the valid votes)

[buritobr]

Final results

Rio de Janeiro: Marcelo Crivella 59.4%, Marcelo Freixo 40.6%
Belo Horizonte: Kalil 53.0%, João Leite 47.0%
Curitiba: Rafael Greca 53.3%, Leprevost 46.7%
Porto Alegre: Nelson Marchezan 60.5%, Sebastião Melo 39.5%
Fortaleza: Roberto Claudio 53.6%, Capitão Wagner 46.4%
Recife: Geraldo Julio 61.3%, João Paulo 38.7%

[ag]

Following up on the 2nd round

Sao Paulo
Joao Doria (PSDB) 53.29% - elected in the first round
Fernando Hadad (PT) 16.63%

Rio de Janeiro
Crivella (PRB) 27.78% - run-off elected 2nd round 59.36%
Marselo Freixo (PSOL) 18.26% - run-off

Belo Horizonte
Joao Leite (PSDB) 33.51% - run-off
Alexandre Kalil (PHS) 26.51% - run-off elected 2nd round 52.98%

Porto Alegre
Nelson Marchezan Junior (PSDB) 29.84% - run-off elected 2nd round 60.5%
Sebastiao Melo (PMDB) 25.93% - run-off

[ag]

Fortaleza
Roberto Claudio (PDT) 40.81% - run-off elected 2nd round 53.57%
Capitao Wagner (PR) 31.15% - run off

Recife
Geraldo Julio (PSB) 49.34% - run-off elected 2nd round 61.3%
Joao Paulo (PT) 23.76% - run-off

Campinas
Jonas Donzette (PSB) 65.76% - elected in the first round
Artur Orsi (PSD) 15.42%

Goiania
Iris Rezende (PMDB) 40.47% - run-off elected 2nd round 57.7%
Vanderlan (PSB) 31.84% - run-off

Manaus
Artur Neto (PSDB) 35.17% - run-off elected 2nd round 55.96%
Marcelo Ramos (PR) 24.85% - run-off

Salvador
ACM Neto (DEM) 73.99% - elected first round
Alice Portugal (PC do B) 14.56%

Curitiba
Rafael Greca (PMN) 38.38% - run-offelected 2nd round 53.25%
Ney Leprevost (PSD) 23.66% - run-off

[ag]

Rio Branco
Alexandre (PT) 54.62% - elected first round
Sinhasique (PMDB) 32.29%

Maceio
Palmeira (PSDB) 46.88% - run-off elected in 2nd round 60.27 %
Almeida (PMDB) 24.71 - run-off

Macapa
Clecio (REDE) 44.59% - run-off elected 2nd round 60.5%
Borges (PMDB) 26.37% - run-off

Vitoria
Luciano (PPS) 43.82% - run-off elected 2nd round 51.19%
Neto (SD) 35.32% - run-off

Sao Luis
Holanda Jr. (PDT) 45.66% - run-off elected 2nd round 53.94%
Braide (PMN) 21.34% - run-off

Cuiaba 
Pinheiro (PMDB) 34.15% run-off elected 2nd round 60.41%
Santos (PSDB) 28.40% run-off

Campo Grande
Trad (PSD) 35.02% run-off elected 2nd round 58.77%
Modesto (PSDB) 26.63% run-off

Belem
Coutinho (PSDB) 31.02% run-off elected 2nd round 52.33%
Edmilson (PSOL) 29.50% run-off

Joao Pessoa
Cartaxo (PSD) 59.67% - elected in first round
Ramos (PSB) 33.54%

Teresina
Filho (PSDB) 51.14% - elected in first round
Pessoa (PSD) 39.77%

Natal
Eduardo (PDT) 63.42% - elected in first round
Kelps (SD) 13.37%

Porto Velho
Hildon (PSDB) 27.23% run-off elected 2nd round 65.15%
Moraes (PTB) 26.10% run-off

Boa Vista
Teresa (PMDB) 79.50% - elected in first round
Bare (PP) 9.45%

Florianopolis
Loureiro (PMDB) 40.39% - run-off elected 2nd round 50.26%
Amin (PP) 24.57% - run-off

Aracaju
Nogueira (PC do B) 38.77% - run-off elected 2nd round 52.11%
Filho (PSB) 38.08% - run-off

Palmas
Amastha (PSB) 52.38% - elected in first round
Filho (PR) 31.43%

[ag]

So, in terms of changes of state capitals

PSDB 7 (+3)
Manaus (PSDB hold)
Belem (PSDB hold)
Maceio (PSDB hold)
Teresina (PSDB hold)
Sao Paulo (PSDB gain from PT)
Porto Alegre (PSDB gain from PDT)
Porto Velho (PSDB gain from PSB)

PMDB 4 (+2)
Boa Vista (PMDB hold)
Goiania (PMDB gain from PT)
Cuiaba (PMDB gain from PSB)
Florianopolis (PMDB gain from PSD)

PDT 3 (-2)
Fortaleza (PDT hold)
Sao Luis (PDT hold)
Natal (PDT hold)

PSB 2 (-3)
Recife (PSB hold)
Palmas (PSB hold)

PSD 2 (nil)
Joao Pessoa (PSD hold)
Campo Grande (PSD gain from PP)

PT 1 (-2)
Rio Branco (PT hold)

DEM 1 (-1)
Salvador (DEM hold)

PPS 1 (nil)
Vitoria (PPS hold)

REDE 1 (nil)
Macapa (REDE hold)

PCdoB 1 (+1)
Aracaju (PCdoB gain from DEM)

PRB 1 (+1)
Rio de Janeiro (PRB gain from PMDB)

PHS 1 (+1)
Belo Horizonte (PHS gain from PSB)

PMN 1 (+1)
Curitiba (PMN gain from PDT)

[ag]

Some other big cities in Sao Paulo state

Riberao Preto (SP) - PSDB gain from PSD
Jundiai (SP) - PSDB gain from PSD
Santo Andre (SP) - PSDB gain from PT
Sao Bernardo do Campo (SP) - PSDB gain from PT
Guarulhos (SP) - PSB gain from PT
Osasco (SP) - PTN gain from PT
Sorocaba (SP) - DEM hold
Bauru (SP) - PSD gain from PMDB

They are reporting that 24% of Brazilians will live in municipalities governed by PSDB.