Brazil Municipal Elections, October 2016

[buritobr]

Exactly one year from now, there will be elections for the mayors and legislators (vereadores) of the 5570 Brazilian municipalities.
The biggest news of these elections are related to what happened two weeks ago. Very good news. The Supreme Court decided to ban corporate donations to campaign of politicians and parties. Only individuals are allowed to contribute for campaign now. No more than R$1000 (US$250) each individual. The parties have also public funds. Corporate donation ban will avoid abuse of economic power in the democracy. Here you can read more details
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/18/brazilian-supreme-court-bans-corporate-donations-political-candidates-parties

In the city of São Paulo, probably mayor Fernando Haddad (PT) will not be reelected. Not because of his administration. He has low chances because the popularity of the Workers Party (PT) is very low, due to the Petrobras scandal, to the economic crisis and the very low approval rate of Dilma Rousseff administration. Even though, Haddad is not involved in any scandal. Other candidates are Celso Russomano and José Luís Datena. Both were presenters of police TV shows. This kind of show is about crime and the presenter is usually pro "law and order" and supports the idea that "human rights are good for criminals". This kind of speech has acceptance among some Brazilians, because of the high crime rates. PSDB candidate probably will be João Dória, a star magnate, a kind of Brazilian Donald Trump. But it is still not sure if he will be candidate.

In the city of Rio de Janeiro, mayor Eduardo Paes (PMDB) cannot run for reelection because he is already in his second term. His candidate will be one of his secretaries. He will be the favorite. Paes will be in evidence next year because of the Olympics. The campaign will take place during the Olympics. Paes is known as the "Olympic mayor". Other candidate will be the evangelic leader Marcelo Crivella. Marcelo Freixo, the moderate leftist of the far left PSOL will run too. And REDE, Marina Silva's new party, will have a candidate too, who is a former PT congressman.

[buritobr]

http://g1.globo.com/sao-paulo/noticia/2016/02/politicos-pedem-cancelamento-da-pre-candidatura-de-doria-em-sp.html

PSDB primaries to choose the candidate who will run against incumbent Fernando Haddad (PT) for mayor of São Paulo: João Dória, who is a magnate and TV star, and not a professional politician, is chalenging the establishment of his party. Not an unknown story. There are two candidates endorsed by the establishment of the party.

[RodPresident]

http://g1.globo.com/sao-paulo/noticia/2016/02/politicos-pedem-cancelamento-da-pre-candidatura-de-doria-em-sp.html

PSDB primaries to choose the candidate who will run against incumbent Fernando Haddad (PT) for mayor of São Paulo: João Dória, who is a magnate and TV star, and not a professional politician, is chalenging the establishment of his party. Not an unknown story. There are two candidates endorsed by the establishment of the party.

PSDB is having primaries today and things are very ugly. Results aren't out, with ballots destroyed and violence.
Doria isn't an outsider, but this is his first candidacy. His father was a ongressman that was expelled by military dictatorship and he aligned with PMDB people who would found PSDB very early. He served as CEO of tourism promotion in Sarney government. Then he left government and went to a successful career as promoter of business meetings, like a Brazilian version of World Economic Forum. And he went to host a business talk show, and even one season of Brazilian 'The Apprentice" version. He's running with a very pro-business platform, including privatization of public utilities.
Other candidates are Andrea Matarazzo and Ricardo Tripoli.
Matarazzo is from Brazilian version of Rockefeller family and is cousin to former senator Eduardo Suplicy (PT). He was Minister of Broadcasting and Ambassador to Italy in Cardoso's government and serves now as town councillor. He's endorsed by Cardoso and Senator José Serra.
Tripoli is an enviromentalist congressman famous for pro-animal rights bills. He's candidate of a wing more linked to governor Geraldo Alckmin, led by former PSDB chairman José Aníbal and congressman Bruno Covas (grandson of former governor Mario Covas). Initially, Covas planned to be candidate, but he withdrew after some accusations of irregularities put on press and fearing a 3rd place.
Doria Jr. campaign style is very controversial. He suffered with some accusations of buying support. And he is promising support to Alckmin's presidential bid in 2018. This thing made him very disliked by other candidates. Serra still desires to try to run again for President and Tripoli's wing feels that Doria stole Alckmin endorsement from them. In fact, Doria Jr. went to vote today with Alckmin. This is a gain-gain business as Doria's candidacy gain some credibility, while Alckmin can get money from Doria's network with big business in his fight to get PSDB nomination to 2018 presidential election against Aecio Neves and Serra.
And PSDB have problems too. A scandal linked to school meals went on Alckmin government. And schemes to pay ailmony to Cardoso's love child in 90s with a former Globo journalist appeared. A DNA exams showed that child isn't of Cardoso in 2011, but Miriam Dutra (mother of guy) said that she distrusts exams. And she reappeared now.

[RodPresident]

João Doria Jr. went with a heavy victory: 43.13%
Andrea Matarazzo got 32.89% and Tripoli got 22.31%
Former Governor Alberto Goldman (Matarazzo supporter) and former PSDB Chairman José Aníbal (Tripoli supporter) says that they will try to impugnate Doria candidacy.

[buritobr]

Doria and Mattarazzo will face the runoff.
Maybe, Trípoli was "too left-wing". João Doria spoke what the average PSDB primary voter wants to listen. Doria's results were also na evidence of the strengh of the governor Geraldo Alckmin.

The PSDB primaries had scenes near the polls that look like election of labor unions. We can not say that PSDB is elitist anymore.

I don't know how this guy has lost his pants.
http://jornalggn.com.br/noticia/brigas-e-invasao-afetam-previas-do-psdb-em-sp

[RodPresident]

Doria and Mattarazzo will face the runoff.
Maybe, Trípoli was "too left-wing". João Doria spoke what the average PSDB primary voter wants to listen. Doria's results were also na evidence of the strengh of the governor Geraldo Alckmin.

The PSDB primaries had scenes near the polls that look like election of labor unions. We can not say that PSDB is elitist anymore.

I don't know how this guy has lost his pants.
http://jornalggn.com.br/noticia/brigas-e-invasao-afetam-previas-do-psdb-em-sp

And gubernatorial patronage helped Doria Jr. a lot, taking voters from Tripoli. Matarazzo built support with his colleagues from town council and people linked to Serra/Kassab government. It's interesting that Alckmin in 2008 was boycotted by majority of PSDB town councillors. I'd rate this race as tossup, because Doria is very outsider to PSDB establishment, but Alckmin will work very heavy for him.

[buritobr]

The PSDB primary is a lethal race because problably it will elect the future São Paulo mayor.

It is very hard for Fernando Haddad (PT) to be reelected. His party has low approval rate because of the stagflation (Dilma's administration) and the corruption scandals. Haddad's administration has low approval rate too (but maybe, this is a mirror of the evaluation of Lula, Dilma and PT). However, he still have some months to try to present good job, and he will try to be distant enough to PT during the campaign.
Celso Russomano is a paraguayan horse. He starts well because he is famous. But his rejection is very high.
Probably, former PT mayor and now PMDB candidate Marta Suplicy will have single digit. Voters who dislike Haddad's administation will not vote for Marta too.

[RodPresident]

The PSDB primary is a lethal race because problably it will elect the future São Paulo mayor.

It is very hard for Fernando Haddad (PT) to be reelected. His party has low approval rate because of the stagflation (Dilma's administration) and the corruption scandals. Haddad's administration has low approval rate too (but maybe, this is a mirror of the evaluation of Lula, Dilma and PT). However, he still have some months to try to present good job, and he will try to be distant enough to PT during the campaign.
Celso Russomano is a paraguayan horse. He starts well because he is famous. But his rejection is very high.
Probably, former PT mayor and now PMDB candidate Marta Suplicy will have single digit. Voters who dislike Haddad's administation will not vote for Marta too.

Haddad's only chance is that PSDB melts during this primary. If Matarazzo loses, he could run in PSD or Serra go officialy to PMDB and endorse Marta, while if Doria loses, Alckmin can sabotage Matarazzo from inside, throwing resources to Russomanno and Marta.

[buritobr]

Matarazzo left not only the primaries, but also the party. João Doria Jr will be the PSDB candidate for the mayor of São Paulo. A personal victory of the governor Geraldo Alckmin.

However, Brazilian politics is focused on Brasília (and Curitiba), not yet on the municipal elections.

[buritobr]

Pedro Paulo (PMDB), candidate for mayor of Rio de Janeiro, has a bad image because the media showed that he has already spanked his ex-wife.
Now, he is looking for a female running mate, in order to improve his reputation to the female voters.

http://extra.globo.com/noticias/extra-extra/pedro-paulo-procura-uma-mulher-para-ser-sua-vice-na-disputa-pela-prefeitura-do-rio-19268901.html

[buritobr]

Poll Gerp July 8th


Mayor of Rio de Janeiro

Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 32%
Romário (PSB) 10%
Marcelo Freixo (PSOL) 6%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PSC) 6%
Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) 3%
Carlos Osório (PSDB) 3%
Pedro Paulo (PMDB) 2%
Marta Rocha 2%
Molon 1%
Índio da Costa 1%

[Vega]

I was reading an article that said there will be a record amount of East Asian, particularly Japanese candidates running. I find that interesting in light of Brazil's recent diversity crisis in government.

[buritobr]

I was reading an article that said there will be a record amount of East Asian, particularly Japanese candidates running. I find that interesting in light of Brazil's recent diversity crisis in government.

No candidate for mayor in the big cities I know has Asian ancestry. Maybe, candidates for vereador (city legislator)

[Vega]

I was reading an article that said there will be a record amount of East Asian, particularly Japanese candidates running. I find that interesting in light of Brazil's recent diversity crisis in government.

No candidate for mayor in the big cities I know has Asian ancestry. Maybe, candidates for vereador (city legislator)

Yes, I think it was referring more to vereadores.

[ag]

I am in Rio right now, trying to read O Globo Have not seen much evidence of the election on the street: doubt much attention will be paid to it till the Olympics and the resolution of the Dilma drama.

[buritobr]

I live in Rio.

Sure, the municipal elections are almost forgotten. Besides, after the changes in the legislation that took place last year, there are no 90 day campaign anymore. Now, the campaign takes place during only 60 days.

There is no enthusiasm for the olympics too. The pessimism is very high: crime, polution...

[buritobr]

Datafolha, July 13th

Mayor of São Paulo

Celso Russomano (PRB) 25%
Marta (PMDB) 16%
Luiza Erundina (PSOL) 10%
Fernando Haddad (PT) 8%
João Dória (PSDB) 6%
Marco Feliciano (PSC) 4%
Andrea Matarazzo (PSD) 3%

[buritobr]

Today was the deadline for the candidates to subscribe to the Electoral Justice. Campaign officially starts tomorrow, but people will pay atenction to the election only after the end of the Olympics.
The 5570 Brazilian municipalities will elect their mayors and legislators (vereadores). All these municipalities will have a sum of 500 thousand candidates for vereador.
The first round will take place on October 2nd. The runoff will take place on October 30th.

[buritobr]

Most recent polls IBOPE

São Paulo
Celso Russomano (PRB): 33%
Marta (PMDB): 17%
Fernando Haddad* (PT): 9%
Luiza Erundina (PSOL): 9%
João Doria (PSDB): 9%
Major Olimpo (SD): 2%

Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivella (PRB): 27%
Marcelo Freixo (PSOL): 12%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PSC): 11%
Jandira Feghali (PCdoB): 6%
Pedro Paulo (PMDB): 6%
Índio da Costa (PSD): 5%
Carlos Osório (PSDB): 4%
Alessandro Molon (REDE): 2%

Belo Horizonte
João Leite (PSDB): 21%
Alexandre Kalil (PHS): 10%
Luís Tibé (PTdoB): 6%
Eros Biondini (PROS): 5%
Vanessa Portugal (PSTU): 5%
Délio Malheiros (PSD): 3%
Maria da Consolação (PSOL): 3%
Reginaldo Lopes (PT): 3%
Sargento Rodrigues (PDT): 3%

Porto Alegre
Luciana Genro (PSOL): 23%
Raul Pont (PT): 18%
Nelson Marchezan (PSDB): 12%
Melo (PMDB): 10%
João Carlos Rodrigues (PMN): 3%
Júlio Flores (PSTU): 3%
Maurício Dziedricki (PTB): 3%

Curitiba
Rafael Greca (PMN): 28%
Gustavo Fruet* (PDT): 19%
Requião Filho (PMDB): 16%
Ney Leprevost (PSD): 6%

Recife
João Paulo (PT): 27%
Geraldo Júlio* (PSB): 26%
Daniel Coelho (PSDB): 11%
Priscila Krause (DEM): 8%
Edilson Silva (PSOL): 4%

Campinas
Jonas Donizette* (PSB): 40%
Dr. Hélio (PDT): 12%
Artur Orsi (PSD): 8%
Márcio Pochmann (PT): 5%
Marcela Moreira (PSOL): 4%


* incumbente mayor running for reelection

[buritobr]

Until 2014, TV broadcasts had to invite for the debates all the candidates whose parties had seats in the House.
In 2015, the Congress approved an Act which established that candidates whose parties don't have at least 10 seats in the House (there are 513 seats in the House) should not participate in the TV debates. The authors of this Act were two right-wing representatives from Rio de Janeiro: Eduardo Cunha and Rodrigo Maia. There was a clear target: PSOL, the far-left party who has 6 seats. Although PSOL is a small party in the national level, Marcelo Freixo is a popular politician in Rio de Janeiro. He is a strong candidate for mayor. That's why the right wing representatives want to exclude him from the debates.
Because of this act, both Marcelo Freixo (PSOL candidate in Rio de Janeiro) and Luiza Erundina (PSOL candidate in São Paulo) did not participate in the TV debates. During the debates, they made rallies in public square, with TV public viewing. They made comments about the debate, while the debate was taking place.

Yesterday, the Supreme Court considered that Cunha's and Maia's Act did not respect the Constitution, and so, it will be not valid anymore. Marcelo Freixo and Luiza Erundina can be invited for the next debates. It is an absurd to exclude them. They are polling in the level of double digits.

[RodPresident]

Until 2014, TV broadcasts had to invite for the debates all the candidates whose parties had seats in the House.
In 2015, the Congress approved an Act which established that candidates whose parties don't have at least 10 seats in the House (there are 513 seats in the House) should not participate in the TV debates. The authors of this Act were two right-wing representatives from Rio de Janeiro: Eduardo Cunha and Rodrigo Maia. There was a clear target: PSOL, the far-left party who has 6 seats. Although PSOL is a small party in the national level, Marcelo Freixo is a popular politician in Rio de Janeiro. He is a strong candidate for mayor. That's why the right wing representatives want to exclude him from the debates.
Because of this act, both Marcelo Freixo (PSOL candidate in Rio de Janeiro) and Luiza Erundina (PSOL candidate in São Paulo) did not participate in the TV debates. During the debates, they made rallies in public square, with TV public viewing. They made comments about the debate, while the debate was taking place.

Yesterday, the Supreme Court considered that Cunha's and Maia's Act did not respect the Constitution, and so, it will be not valid anymore. Marcelo Freixo and Luiza Erundina can be invited for the next debates. It is an absurd to exclude them. They are polling in the level of double digits.

In Rio's debate, Flavio Bolsonaro (PSC) had a seizure and was helped by Carlos Osorio (PSDB) and Jandira Feghali (PC do B). Jandira is a doctor. But his father, congressman Jair Bolsonaro refused Jandira's help. And in a fun note that Bolsonaro's son said that Dilma should have a seizure in a 2014 debate against Aecio Neves (PSDB).

[Simfan34]

What dreadful results for the PSDB!

[buritobr]

Datafolha September 8th

São Paulo
Celso Russomano (PRB) 26%
Marta (PMDB) 21%
João Dória (PSDB) 16%
Fernando Haddad (PT) 9%
Luiza Erundina (PSOL) 7%
Major Olimpio (SD) 2%

Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 29%
Marcelo Freixo (PSOL) 11%
Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) 8%
Pedro Paulo (PMDB) 8%
Índio da Costa (PSD) 6%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PSC) 6%
Carlos Osório (PSDB) 4%

Belo Horizonte
João Leite (PSDB) 30%
Alexandre Khalil (PHS) 19%
Délio Malheiros (PSD) 4%
Reginaldo Lopes (PT) 4%

Recife
Geraldo Julio (PSB) 36%
João Paulo (PT) 34%
Daniel Coelho (PSDB) 11%

Porto Alegre
Sebastião Melo (PMDB) 22%
Raul Pont (PT) 19%
Luciana Genro (PSOL) 17%
Nelson Marchezan (PSDB) 17%

[RodPresident]

Datafolha September 8th

São Paulo
Celso Russomano (PRB) 26%
Marta (PMDB) 21%
João Dória (PSDB) 16%
Fernando Haddad (PT) 9%
Luiza Erundina (PSOL) 7%
Major Olimpio (SD) 2%

Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 29%
Marcelo Freixo (PSOL) 11%
Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) 8%
Pedro Paulo (PMDB) 8%
Índio da Costa (PSD) 6%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PSC) 6%
Carlos Osório (PSDB) 4%

Belo Horizonte
João Leite (PSDB) 30%
Alexandre Khalil (PHS) 19%
Délio Malheiros (PSD) 4%
Reginaldo Lopes (PT) 4%

Recife
Geraldo Julio (PSB) 36%
João Paulo (PT) 34%
Daniel Coelho (PSDB) 11%

Porto Alegre
Sebastião Melo (PMDB) 22%
Raul Pont (PT) 19%
Luciana Genro (PSOL) 17%
Nelson Marchezan (PSDB) 17%

PSOL is suffering effects of low television time and celebrity candidates get higher percentual of votes. This is a dreadful campaign for small parties.

[buritobr]

Analysis I wrote on August 19th (in Portuguese)
http://www.trincheiras.com.br/2016/08/o-que-esperar-das-eleicoes-municipais-de-2016/

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