Why is Donald Trump declining in the polls?

[Intell]

What is the cause of Trump declining in the polls, I just believe it's because the excitement and 'fuss' about Trump is going away, making discussion turn to other candidates causing a decrease in the polls for trump.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

[Torie]

Because he's basically an empty suit ahole, and the voters are getting tired of his act. And there you have it.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Trump's not "declining" in the polls.  He's been leading in the polls for two (2) months now.

He's where he is.  He's got the largest group of backers of any candidate.  Most people want someone else, but that's true of every candidate.

Trump's a target; folks are ganging up against him.  We know what that's really about; it's about the continuing hegemony of the present Political Class in the GOP Establishment.  Trump has put that on the line.

[Badger]

Because he's basically an empty suit ahole, and the voters are getting tired of his act. And there you have it.

[dudeabides]

Because he's basically an empty suit ahole, and the voters are getting tired of his act. And there you have it.

I agree with this. But I'll go even further. Trump supporters have a tendency to be angry, most Americans are pessimistic right now due to economic stagnation and a very crazy world, but they want to have hope. Mr. Trump appeals to people's fears, people want a candidate and a President who appeals to their hopes. One of the great flaws with our current President is that he campaigned on hope but has governed on fear. Mr. Trump has skipped campaigning on hope and is just trying to be angry.

[Torie]

Trump's not "declining" in the polls.  He's been leading in the polls for two (2) months now.

He's where he is.  He's got the largest group of backers of any candidate.  Most people want someone else, but that's true of every candidate.

Trump's a target; folks are ganging up against him.  We know what that's really about; it's about the continuing hegemony of the present Political Class in the GOP Establishment.  Trump has put that on the line.

You honestly don't believe Trump has declined in the polls from his peak? More importantly, the percentage of Pubs who dislike him is moving back up considerably.

[The Mikado]

Torie, if anything this is Trump feeling out his floor. Rather than being in free-fall, he declined from the low thirties to the mid-20s and stopped.Trump's lost his soft support, but soft support can be regained. Rather, we've learned that he has a rather impressively solid base of just over 20%.

[Torie]

Torie, if anything this is Trump feeling out his floor. Rather than being in free-fall, he declined from the low thirties to the mid-20s and stopped.Trump's lost his soft support, but soft support can be regained. Rather, we've learned that he has a rather impressively solid base of just over 20%.

A 20% floor won't win you the nomination. Anyway, you might want to check out Nate Silver's article on the matter if you haven't already read it.

[TJ in Oregon]

Fatigue. People liked him to begin with for jumping in and shaking up the system because people want things changed. By now they're starting to wake up and see that yelling random insults about peoples' appearance isn't actually shaking up the system and is starting to get old. When his schtick is to be the flashiest object around (which has some unholy appeal to the GOP electorate for a variety of reasons), he has to keep it fresh. He's not imploding by any means, but he is slowly burning out.

[tpfkaw]

A poor debate performance (exacerbated by the establishment hack audience). The CNBC debate is make or break for his campaign.

[HillOfANight]

He didn't want to look at that face.

[Mehmentum]

Yeah, Trump has basically returned to how he was doing in August, just above 20%.  This is just a return to the mean.

[Horsemask]

Because once things turn to substance, Trump doesn't have much to offer except insults.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Trump was the Silly Season candidate over the summer while Congress was out of session and nothing was really happening. With the Papal visit and the House leadership elections there's actually something else going on in the political cycle other than Trump and giving him free advertising.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just like most of the GOP candidates running, they are offering corporate tax cuts in the face of an improving economy, and voters are looking for wage increases.

Unless you're Rubio, who is bipartisan on immigration, that's not good enough.

[DrScholl]

His position has more stabilized than declined.

[Lyin' Steve]

Fiorina did well in the second debate and Carson has been getting a lot of attention as Trump takes a little breather.  Since they all share the same base of support, and Fiorina and Carson have moved up, so Trump must come down.

[RI]

Doesn't look like he's declining to me:

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Doesn't look like he's declining to me:

His poll numbers aren't. That is a big lie people are perpetrating based on a couple fishy results directly after debate number #2

However, his favorabilities are basically getting crushed and that should be a concern because he won't be winning head-to-heads with other candidates (and he was never leading Carson H2H)

[Lyin' Steve]

Doesn't look like he's declining to me:

What on earth is this chart?  I've tried to make it on Pollster and I can't figure out how you did.

Two can play at this game...



TRUMPMENTUM NEVER DIES

[Lyin' Steve]

Also on my chart, poor Lindsey, negative support, time to drop out bud

[Mehmentum]

Doesn't look like he's declining to me:

What on earth is this chart?  I've tried to make it on Pollster and I can't figure out how you did.

Two can play at this game...



TRUMPMENTUM NEVER DIES

The graph is from Huffington Post's polling averages, if you use the 'less smoothing' option.  'Moderate smoothing' does show Trump declining, while 'more smoothing' gives a graph similar to to your graph.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Torie, if anything this is Trump feeling out his floor. Rather than being in free-fall, he declined from the low thirties to the mid-20s and stopped.Trump's lost his soft support, but soft support can be regained. Rather, we've learned that he has a rather impressively solid base of just over 20%.

A 20% floor won't win you the nomination. Anyway, you might want to check out Nate Silver's article on the matter if you haven't already read it.

I lost a lot of respect for Nate Silver's crystal-ball gazing when he kept overestimating Walker's chances even while Walker's campaign was dying.

Trump has dropped because he's lost media coverage and thus mindshare. Fiorina and others started to get covered more than they were previously, and other news started rolling in competing for attention. Plus he's been making fewer inflammatory statements. He'll go back up when (if) he gets more coverage. His flat performance at the last debate obviously didn't help - if he's more extroverted at the next one, he'll do better.

Presuming he's actually serious, he's in the same position as Bush - all he needs is enough popularity and money to stay in until the zombies start dropping out and support starts to consolidate, which may very well not be until Jan-Feb.

[heatmaster]

He's an empty vessel...a bad fever if you will, which must run it's course. It was gladly inevitable😊

[Simfan34]

Also on my chart, poor Lindsey, negative support, time to drop out bud

How did happen?