NBC/WSJ GOP and Dem poll for IA and NH

[The Other Castro]

Full numbers are out tomorrow.

IA: Trump +5, Clinton +5
NH: Trump +5, Sanders +14

[RFayette]

Bad news for Clinton and Trump, it seems.

[Mehmentum]

Bad news for Clinton and Trump, it seems.

The Iowa results are spot on with RCP.  The NH results are worse for Clinton and Trump than RCP's average by about 5 points. 

[/]

Clinton only +5 in IA? Nice! But to Biden or Sanders?

[The Mikado]

So Trump steady in Iowa and losing ground in NH? This should be interesting, as is the question of who is second in NH. (If it's Carson then the establishment still has a ton of work to do in their backyard)

As for the Dems...Clinton +5 in IA and Sanders +14 in NH makes sense if Biden is in. I'd assume Clinton opens up a large lead in IA in the no Biden version.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So Trump steady in Iowa and losing ground in NH? This should be interesting, as is the question of who is second in NH. (If it's Carson then the establishment still has a ton of work to do in their backyard)

As for the Dems...Clinton +5 in IA and Sanders +14 in NH makes sense if Biden is in. I'd assume Clinton opens up a large lead in IA in the no Biden version.

Yup.

[Likely Voter]

IA: Trump +5, Clinton +5
NH: Trump +5, Sanders +14

For comparison, here are NBC/Marists numbers from 4 weeks ago

IA Trump +7, Clinton +11
NH Trump +16, Sanders +9

[mencken]

Almost certainly good news for Fiorina in New Hampshire. A bit middling for Carson, he should be leading in Iowa if Trump is slumping nationally.

Obviously more good news for Sanders on the Democratic side.

[Former Democrat]

What are the numbers? Link?

[Fusionmunster]

http://politicalwire.com/2015/10/04/trump-leads-in-iowa-2/
http://politicalwire.com/2015/10/04/trump-leads-in-new-hampshire-3/

No direct links but someone reporting on it.

Trump up 5 in NH
Sanders up 9 in NH
Trump up 5 in Iowa
Hillary up 11 in Iowa

[Bull Moose Base]

Kasich not in top 5 in NH.
Jindal tied with Rubio and Cruz in IA.
Bush 1 point ahead of Rubio in both states.

The big picture is outsiders still dominating but Carson and Fiorina closing in on Trump in IA and NH respectively. Trump goofed. He crassly attacked McCain and a media personality and his numbers climbed, then tried it on popular outsiders and helped them.

[mencken]

Jindalmentum continues. Also, Christie seems to have taken most of his supporters back from Kasich.

[Senator Cris]

[Senator Cris]

Full IOWA #s:

GOP:

Trump 24 (- 4)
Carson 19 (- 3)
Fiorina 8 (+3)
Bush 7 (+1)
Cruz 6 (+2)
Rubio 6 (+2)
Jindal 6 (+2)
Huckabee 5 (+2)
Paul 4 (- 1)
Christie 4 (+2)
Kasich 3 (+ 1)
Santorum 1 (=)
Graham 1 (+1)
Pataki, Gilmore <1 (=)

DEM:

Clinton 33 (- 5)
Sanders 28 (+1)
Biden 22 (+2)
O'Malley 3 (- 1)
Webb 1 (- 1)
Chafee <1 (- 1)

Clinton 47 (- 1)
Sanders 36 (- 1)
O'Malley 4 (=)
Webb 1 (- 1)
Chafee <1 (- 1)

[Senator Cris]

Full NH #s:

GOP:

Trump 21 (- 7)
Fiorina 16 (+10)
Bush 11 (+3)
Rubio 10 (+7)
Carson 10 (- 1)
Christie 7 (+2)
Kasich 6 (- 6)
Cruz 6 (+1)
Paul 5 (=)
Huckabee 1 (- 1)
All others <1 (Graham and Jindal - 1)

DEM:

Sanders 42 (+1)
Clinton 28 (- 4)
Biden 18 (+2)
O'Malley 2 (+1)
Webb 1 (=)
Chafee 1 (+1)

Sanders 48 (- 1)
Clinton 39 (+1)
Chafee 2 (+1)
O'Malley 2 (+1)
Webb 1 (- 1)

[Mr. Morden]

Here are the #s:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/283603490/GOP-DEM-CAUCUS-NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Iowa-Annotated-Questionnaire-October-2015

http://www.scribd.com/doc/283603493/GOP-DEM-PRIMARY-NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-New-Hampshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-October-2015

Carson’s the leading 2nd choice of voters in Iowa, while Fiorina’s leading the 2nd choice options in NH.  Despite leading the 1st choice options, Trump’s only at 8% on the 2nd choice question in NH, which makes him tied for 6th place on that question.

[FLgirl]

Trump descending and Fiorina rising are to be expected.

For me, the real story here is Jeb bush rising and Carson falling.

If Carson continues to slump over this next month (and I think there's a good chance of that), the big question is who will his supporters turn to? It won't be Trump. So who will rise as Carson falls?

[Mr. Morden]

Note that Jindal's been airing TV ads in Iowa, while Christie airs ads in NH:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=218607.msg4743145#msg4743145

Bush's Super PAC has been airing ads in all the early states.

Kasich's been running ads in NH, but I think that was more in August than September.  His ad spending has slowed down, and he's got more competition on the airwaves now.

Trump has aired no TV ads yet.  Carson and Fiorina have spent very little on TV ads in the early states.

[A Perez]

Bad news for Clinton and Trump, it seems.

Your numbers are wrong. Clinton leads by 11%, not  5.
 

[Tender Branson]

Bad news for Clinton and Trump, it seems.

Your numbers are wrong. Clinton leads by 11%, not  5.

She leads by 11 and 5, it's just a matter of how you see it.

A Biden-entry would just hurt her more than Sanders.

[tmthforu94]

Considering the expected surge that comes with entering the race, it looks like Biden's avenue to the nomination could be winning Iowa, then following it up with South Carolina. Biden has good reasons for waiting so long, so I think Iowans, who traditionally demand months and months of face-time from candidates, will be pretty understanding with him.

[Skye]

I wonder how long Fiorinamentum will last.

[mencken]

Considering the expected surge that comes with entering the race, it looks like Biden's avenue to the nomination could be winning Iowa, then following it up with South Carolina. Biden has good reasons for waiting so long, so I think Iowans, who traditionally demand months and months of face-time from candidates, will be pretty understanding with him.

The question is whether Biden can maintain his announcement bump long enough to win Iowa? (or at least force Clinton into a third place finish). Team Clinton is not going to go away quietly, and laying low has been a good strategy so far, but I wonder if Biden will be able to withstand three months of scorched earth tactics.

[mencken]

I wonder how long Fiorinamentum will last.

Fiorina has her opponents in a zugzwang. Her business record is a walking target, but Trump, Perry, and Gingrich have shown that that line of attack can easily backfire, and Bush and Kasich are not exactly in a position to attack others as crony capitalists. Plus there's the fact that she is essentially auditioning to be the establishment candidate's VP, so they do not want to tarnage her faux outsider credentials.

[Lief 🗽]

Awful result for Kasich. I thought he was building up a base of support in New Hampshire, but it looks like now that he's not the only one advertising there he's collapsing again.