Early 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings

[ElectionsGuy]

Is thread a bad idea? Maybe? No? I'm going to do it anyway. A lot of governors are term limited. Forget NH and VT for this exercise.

AL - Safe R
AK - Walker runs for re-election as Republican: Safe R
Walker runs for re-election as Indy: Likely I
AZ - Likely R. Only in a Democratic wave.
AR - Safe R
CA - Safe D
CO - Toss-Up. An open governorship in a purple state, pretty self-explanatory.
CT - Lean D with Malloy, Likely D with anybody else.
FL - Toss-Up. If Dems can get their sh**t together, maybe they can finally win here lol
GA - Safe R. Because of the runoff.
HI - Safe D
ID - Safe R
IL - Toss-Up. Rauner is highly vulnerable, but he's the right kind of Republican to be governing Illinois.
IA - Likely R with Branstad, toss-up with anybody else.
KS - Likely R. Brownback has damaged the party so much that Democrats have a long shot chance here.
ME - I don't even know. Toss-up?
MD - Lean D. Hogan isn't faring well so far. Will be very hard for him to win re-election.
MA - Lean R. Baker has shown himself to be a practical governor. He starts out with a narrow advantage.
MI - Lean D. This is only won by Republicans if there's another wave year.
MN - Likely D. Could become more competitive, but Republicans in Minnesota are really bad at winning elections.
NE - Safe R
NV - Toss-up. Republican bench is strong, democrats have historically underperformed at the state level.
NH - No rating, dependent on 2016.
NM - Lean D. Another Republican like Martinez isn't likely.
NY - Safe D. Even if Cuomo is going to jail, Democrats are guaranteed to never lose.
OH - Toss-up. Can Ohio's Republican lean at the state level be superseded by Sherrod Brown running at the federal level?
OK - Safe R
OR - Likely D. I expect Brown to be mostly secure, but just in case.
PA - Lean D. Wolf is favored, but Republicans always fight hard in Pennsylvania.
RI - Likely D. Republicans still manage to do OK in governor's races. Its not like federal elections at all.
SC - Safe R
SD - Safe R
TN - Safe R
TX - Safe R.
VT - No rating, dependent on 2016.
WI - Toss-up. Whether Walker runs for re-election or not.
WY - Safe R.

This map assumes all the governors that can run for re-election do. It also considers Bill Walker a Republican for convenience purposes.

So I'm expecting a net pickup of anywhere from 0 to 6 pickups for Democrats. But again, that's without VT and NH.

[Mr. Illini]

Like the coming senate race in Illinois, the 2018 gubernatorial will start as toss up because muh moderate but will move over to D as the numbers begin to come in

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AL - Safe R
AK - Safe R if Walker runs as a republican, Lean I if he runs as an independent, Toss-Up if he runs as a Democrat
AZ - Likely R
AR - Safe R
CA - Likely D because of the top-two primary
CO - Toss-Up
CT - Lean D
FL - Lean R. The Republicans can breathe easier with Scott off the ballot, and FL Dems love to be defeated.
GA - Likely R
HI - Safe D
ID - Safe R
IL - Lean D. Rauner won because Quinn was beyond terrible, not because IL endorsed his platform, a fact which should be obvious after considering the fact that Rauner and the legislature have spent the last few months locked in a budget stalemate.
IA - Toss-Up. It's pretty clear that Branstad is retiring.
KS - Safe R. Brownback can't run again, and there's literally no one else in the state party as toxic as him. Even Kobach, who received tons of criticism about his shenanigans with the senate race, won by 18 points last year and would be elected governor without any problem at all.
ME - Lean D
MD - Lean D
MA - Likely R
MI - Lean D
MN - Lean D. Dayton is retiring, and Republicans almost won the last time there was an open governor's race.
NE - Safe R
NV - Lean D
NH - No rating due to 2016 election
NM - Likely D
NY - Likely D with Cuomo, Safe D with anyone else
OH - Toss-Up
OK - Safe R
OR - No rating due to 2016 special election
PA - Lean D
RI - Likely D
SC - Likely R. This was pretty close the last time it was an open seat.
SD - Safe R
TN - Likely R if Blackburn is the republican nominee, Safe R with anyone else
TX - Safe R
VT - No rating due to 2016 election
WI - Lean D with Walker, Toss-Up without
WY - Safe R

[Kingpoleon]

30%: Tilt
50%: Likely
70%: Lean
90%: Safe

Green: Unknown
Yellow: Toss-Up

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

30%: Tilt
50%: Likely
70%: Lean
90%: Safe

Green: Unknown
Yellow: Toss-Up

Why do you have MA at Lean D? Baker is very popular, approvals over 60%.

[The Other Castro]

AK - Lean Walker (regardless of I/R)
AZ - Likely R
CO - Toss-Up
CT - Toss-Up/Tilt R with Malloy, Lean D without Malloy
FL - Toss-Up
IL - Toss-Up/Tilt D
IA - Tilt R (assuming no Branstad)
KS - Likely R, with some possibility of shenanigans
ME - Toss-up/Tilt D
MD - Tilt D, it's Maryland but too early to say much definitively
MA - Lean R, Baker will probably have a somewhat easy reelection
MI - Tilt D, not enough information but we'll see
MN - Likely D
NV - Tilt R, not enough info
NH - Toss-Up/Tilt D until we know who's running
NM - Lean D, Martinez leaving
NY - Likely D, with a possibility of shenanigans
OH - Tilt R, we'll see
PA - Lean D, Wolf will probably win
VT - Tilt D, depending on 2016
WI - Toss-Up, depending on what Walker does

[Kingpoleon]

30%: Tilt
50%: Likely
70%: Lean
90%: Safe

Green: Unknown
Yellow: Toss-Up

Why do you have MA at Lean D? Baker is very popular, approvals over 60%.

Let's see....
Possible GOP President(Tilt R) + Possible retiring(Tossup) + Possible primary challenge(Tilt D) + Massachusetts(Lean D)

I understand your point, but I think only he and Richard Tisei could hold the seat. For obvious reasons, the latter probably won't primary him.

[Del Tachi]

Here would be some interesting match-ups that I hope to see play-out in 2018:
 
Colorado:  Cynthia Coffman (R) vs. Joseph Garcia (D)
Florida:  Marco Rubio (R) vs. Gwen Graham (D)
Georgia:  Casey Cagle (R) vs. Michelle Nunn (D)
Illinois:  Bruce Rauner (R) vs. Cheri Bustos (D)
Maryland:  Boyd Rutherford (R) vs. Thomas Perez (D)
Michigan:  Brian Calley (R) vs. Dan Kildee (D)
Ohio:  Mary Taylor (R) vs. Tim Ryan (D)
Wisconsin:  Scott Walker (R) vs. Ron Kind (D)

[Maxwell]

I would put Wisconsin as Tilt D, Lean D if Walker attempts a third term.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

AL - isn't Bentley supposed to be stepping down early? Anyway, it's Safe R either with an open seat, or with the Lt Gov. being promoted upon Bentley's resignation,

AK - Likely I. I assume democrats won't bother, or nominate a paper candidate and R's will crap the bed.

AZ - ducey is unpopular (approval ratings at 27%) but it is Arizona in a midterm and he has time to make things up. Lean R (and closer to Likely than Toss-up)

AR - Hutchinson is popular, and has handled his fresh legislature wisely. Safe R, and the Democrats won't bother even trying.

CA - I assume it's likely Newsom, sadly.

CO - I think Colorado is starting to get a Democratic itch. Tilt R

CT - i think Malloy will retire. Lean D either way - Malloy has been controversial but he's good at being elected.

FL - tilt-D if Gwen Graham, the sole competent Democrat runs. Otherwise it will probably be one of Florida's huge Republican base. Heck, maybe even Rubio could run.

GA - Likely R. Georgia's demographics make this a challenge and 2014 was highly embarrassing as democrats threw the kitchen sink and failed dramatically.

HI - Ige will win, unless he irritates the democratic establishment (a strange beast in Hawaii)

ID - Some potato eating fool will win, and yes it will be a republican

IL - depends on who is more terminally unpopular: Rauner or the legislature/ghost of Pat Quinn. Of course, Rauner could be in prison considering the state. I assume Madigan will win, if she finds out how to assassinate her father. That or Bustos or a Daley. Tilt D at this point.

IA - assuming the old man retires, a pure toss-up. Probably tilt R if I had to call it, Bransted is popular and he must have a protege somewhere.

KS - there are two parties of relevance - pro-brownbackian and anti-brownbackians. It leans towards the antis - of either letter.

ME - Lean D unless Republicans find another bats*** insane French lunatic to follow the current one. Apparently that's what Maine really likes. (No, Snowman or Collins won't run)

MD - tilt D, but I don't know whether Hogan's health will force him to retire after a single-term

MA - likely R. Baker is popular, and MA Democrats are both stupid and lazy.

MI - Lean D. the state must be crawling with ambitious democrats who for some reason want to deal with the state's notoriously rabid and annoying legislature.

MN - one of those races that the Republicans should be competitive in, but the Minnesota GOP is infamously terrible so likely D... We'lol see if any zany third parties pop-up

NE - is Rickets popular? Who even cares? Safe R

NV - tilt R. Ayy lmao after 14. Ayy. Lmao,


I'll do the rest later.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Part 2:

NM - Lean D with AG Hector whatever.

NY - likely D, but probably not Cuomo

OH - A toss-up. Let's say tilt R for now.

OK - Lol

PA - Tom Wolf is fairly popular, but that could quickly change of course. Lean D

RI - safe D

SC - Likely R. This will be very close in margin, but not likelihood. If that makes sense, at all.

SD - likely R, if only for the open seat and the unpredictable nature of these states.

TN - Tennessee GOP knows how to win. safe R

TX - Safe R

WI - walker will retire, and tilt this to D.

WY - Similar answer to South Dakota.

[Bigby]

I agree with Crab's judgement here.

[Xing]

AL - Safe R, obviously.
AK - Likely I/R. Walker would almost certainly win a two-way race, but a three-way race would make things interesting.
AZ - Likely R. This could only go Democratic in a wave.
AR - Safe R. Republicans will control AR for a long time.
CA - Safe D. Democrats will control CA for a long time.
CO - Toss-up. Totally depends on the candidates and the atmosphere.
CT - Likely D. Malloy may be very unpopular, but he knows how to win, even in Republican wave years. He could also retire.
FL - Toss-up. Scott's unpopularity could definitely weigh down the Republican candidate, but then there's also the inept FDP...
GA - Safe R. This state isn't winnable for Democrats yet, especially with the law about run-offs.
HI - Safe D. Nothing to see here.
ID - Safe R. Not much to say.
IL - Lean D. Rauner's probably toast unless the Democrats nominate a joke, or 2018 is a wave year.
IA - Toss-up. Branstad will retire, and it'll be interesting to see who each party nominates.
KS - Safe R. Sadly, even Browncrap and his anti-education legacy won't be enough to give Democrats a chance here.
ME - Lean D. Republicans will have a harder time winning a two-way race here, without a favorable atmosphere.
MD - Lean D. Toss-up if Hogan runs again, due to the sympathy vote, Likely D if he retires.
MA - Lean R. Baker's popular now, but we'll see if that lasts.
MI - Lean D. Unless 2018 is yet another wave year, I expect Michigan to return to its normal voting pattern.
MN - Likely D. If Republicans can't win here in a wave, it's hard to imagine what it would take for them to win here.
NE - Safe R. See Idaho.
NV - Toss-up. While this state is trending Democratic at the federal level, Republicans still overperform expectations at the statewide level, so I expect a competitive race here.
NH - N/A
NM - Lean D. Republicans don't have another candidate like Martinez that they can run here, so the odds will be in favor of the Democrats.
NY - Safe D. Even if Cuomo were to have an affair with Putin, Democrats would still win here.
OH - Lean R. I would put this as a toss-up, but the Democrats simply don't have a good bench here.
OK - Safe R. Maybe if George Washington came back from the dead and endorsed the Democratic agenda, this race would move to Likely R.
OR - Likely D. While Brown still has to win in 2016, I doubt that will be a problem for her.
PA - Lean D. Wolf won't be completely safe, but he starts off with an advantage.
RI - Likely D. A Republican win is not out of the question, but they'll need several things to break in their favor.
SC - Safe R. See Nebraska.
SD - Safe R. See South Carolina.
TN - Safe R. See South Dakota.
TX - Safe R. See Tennessee.
VT - N/A
WI - Lean D. Similar to Michigan, I expect this race to reflect Wisconsin's Democratic lean. I will not miss hearing "three times in four years," since whenever people talk about Walker, they'll now have to mention his humiliating "presidential campaign."
WY - Safe R. See Texas.

[mds32]

AL - Safe R
AK - Lean Independent/If Walker runs as a Republican: Safe R
AZ - Safe R
AR - Safe R
CA - Safe D
CO - Tossup
CT - Tossup
FL - Tossup
GA - Safe R
HI - Safe D
ID - Safe R
IL - Tossup
IA - Lean R
KS - Likely R
ME - Tossup
MD - Lean R
MA - Lean R
MI - Tossup
MN - Likely D
NE - Safe R
NV - Lean R
NH - No rating, dependent on 2016.
NM - Tossup
NY - Likely D
OH - Lean R
OK - Likely R
OR - Likely D
PA - Tossup
RI - Likely D
SC - Safe R
SD - Safe R
TN - Safe R
TX - Safe R
VT - No rating, dependent on 2016.
WI - Tossup
WY - Safe R

I see 9 tossup races, mostly Republicans defending their seats. A few Likely/Lean races too.

[The Other Castro]

I do not believe that Malloy would win another term if he ran again. Thankfully, I have it on good authority that he will be retiring, with the likely Dem replacement being either AG George Jepsen or Comptroller Kevin Lembo.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Seriously people, look up Ducey's approvals.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Seriously people, look up Ducey's approvals.

It's Arizona. If they elect a democrat in a midterm, it will be because of a democratic wave. Republican states are known for reelecting unpopular governors - see Sam Brownback and Nathan Deal from 2014.

[Orser67]

AL - Safe R
CA - Safe D
NY - Safe D
WY - Safe R
HI - Safe D
ID - Safe R
OK - Safe R
AK - Lean I
KS - Likely R
PA - Lean D
ME - Lean D
MI - Lean D
OR - Likely D

NH/VT-TBD

If a Republican wins in 2016:
AZ - Lean R
AR - Likely R
CO - Lean D
CT - Likely D
FL - Lean D
GA - Likely R
IL - Lean D
IA - Likely R with Branstad, lean D with anyone else.
MD - Likely D
MA - Lean D
MN - Likely D
NE - Likely R
NV - Lean D
NM - Likely D
OH - Lean D
RI - Safe D
SC - Likely R
SD - Likely R
TN - Likely R
TX - Likely R
WI - Lean D

If a Democrat wins in 2016:
AZ - Likely R
AR - Safe R
CO - Lean R
CT - Lean D
FL - Tossup
GA - Safe R
IL - Tossup
IA - Safe R with Branstad, tossup otherwise
MD - Lean D
MA - Tossup
MN - Lean D
NE - Safe R
NV - Lean R
NM - Lean D
OH - Lean R
RI - Lean D
SC - Safe R
SD - Safe R
TN - Safe R
TX - Safe R
WI - Tossup

[Maxwell]

Seriously people, look up Ducey's approvals.

It's Arizona in a mid term. Doug Ducey is probably fine. This is a general trend for GOP governors as of late - they get deeply unpopular as the Presidential year comes up, and then suddenly moderate their tone and build up support.

[Kingpoleon]

Biden Presidency[43-45 approval ratings on Election Day, 2018 voting lines polls]

CA - Gavin Newsom
CO - Walker Stapleton
FL - Marco Rubio
GA - Jason Carter or Rick Allen
IL - Alex Giannoulius
IA - Matt Schultz
MD - O'Malley/Brown
MN - Patricia Anderson
NY - Lee Zeldin
OH - Mike Duffey
PA - Ryan Costello
TX - George P. Bush
VT - Phil Scott
WI - Sean Duffy

[/]

If a Dem wins in 2016, the inherent GOP midterm advantage combined with a large # of weak Republican incumbents in Dem states will certainly create an interesting cycle. I'm hoping for a 2002-esque massacre.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Biden Presidency[43-45 approval ratings on Election Day, 2018 voting lines polls]

CA - Gavin Newsom
CO - Walker Stapleton
FL - Marco Rubio
GA - Jason Carter or Rick Allen
IL - Alex Giannoulius
IA - Matt Schultz
MD - O'Malley/Brown
MN - Patricia Anderson
NY - Lee Zeldin
OH - Mike Duffey
PA - Ryan Costello
TX - George P. Bush
VT - Phil Scott
WI - Sean Duffy

Uh, Lee Zeldin isn't winning statewide in deep atlas red NY.

[morgieb]

Alabama: Safe R. Do Democrats even exist here anymore?
Alaska: Likely I. Dunno much about Walker's popularity but he's probably the early favourite. Dems likely will only have a token candidate at best, and Republicans w
Arizona: Lean R. Ducey is unpopular, but Arizona is a tough nut to crack for the Dems in a midterm. Good news is that the Dems have quite a few good candidates to run here.
Arkansas: Safe R. Hutchinson is popular, and Arkansas hasn't shown much signs of staying with its roots lately.
California: Likely D. "Only" Likely because of Top 2 shenaningans, and if it backfires on the Dems it's more likely to happen in a midterm. I can't really see a Republican knock off a Dem here in normal circumstances.
Colorado: Toss-up. Open seat in a purple state, so this early out this is the default state.
Connecticut: Lean D. Malloy isn't super popular and has been controversial but he did get elected twice so he has to be doing something right. On paper it's a state where Reps can get elected for Governor but the Dems should be the clear favourites for an open seat.
Florida: Tilt R. Yes Florida is purple, but the FDP is notoriously awful and the FRP has a rather deep bench. Dems need Murphy (if he isn't in the Senate) or Graham here.
Georgia: Likely R. It is an open seat, but Georgia ain't turning (atlas) red that quickly. Dems couldn't force a run-off here in 2014 with two very strong candidates, run-offs hurt Dems anyway and demographically this isn't a state that is conductive to Dems in a mid-term.
Hawaii: Safe D. Hawaii can be weird but it's still very very blue.
Idaho: Safe R. Do Democrats even exist here?
Illinois: Lean D. Rauner's getting unpopular. Illinois is blue, his win had more to do with Quinn rather than his own political nous. Hard to see him hanging on.
Iowa: Toss-up. Assuming Branstad retires, it looks very hard to call. Iowa probably is ever so slightly Democratic-leaning, but Branstad is popular and probably has a good protege here.
Kansas: Safe R. It was 2014 admittedly, but if the Dems couldn't beat Brownback, I think a yellow dog would win if it was running as a Republican these days.
Maine: Toss-up. All depends on how many candidates run. Maine isn't that blue, and the state often seems prone to independents running anyway.
Maryland: Toss-up. Hogan is popular but Maryland is a very hard state for Republicans to win. Retirement also a possibility due to health reasons, in which case the Dems ought to pick it up.
Massachusetts: Likely R. Baker is popular, and I think he should win without too much hassle. In any case, recent Massachusetts candidates for the Democrats have been unconvincing.
Michigan: Toss-up. Don't the Republicans hold most of the downballot offices here? The state leans Democratic generally but the Republicans might have the better candidates.
Minnesota: Likely D. Mostly because Minnesotan Republicans seem pretty awful at winning elections.
Nebraska: Safe R. I don't consider Ricketts a huge political talent, but the stocks of Nebraskan Democrats are very low.
Nevada: Tilt R. Sandoval's popularity has really harmed the Democratic bench here. Will be tricky for them to find the best candidate here and the Republicans always find good ones despite the dysfunction of their state party.
New Mexico: Lean D. Martinez was one of a kind, for every other office the state seems to be pretty solidly red these days.
New York: Likely D. Given who's in charge currently, something weird could happen. Especially with the right Republican (who may or may not exist).
Ohio: Tilt R. Dems don't have a great bench here, Pubs do.
Oklahoma: Safe R. Yeah.....
Pennsylvania: Lean D. Wolf should have the early advantage, though things can change.
Rhode Island: Likely D. The Republicans record in state elections is decent here and it seems hard in general for Rhode Island governors to maintain their popularity.
South Carolina: Likely R. Was close in 2010. Might happen again with an open seat, though expecting the Democrats to win is a bit much given they don't have very strong infrastructure here.
South Dakota: Likely R. Probably won't be competitive, but it is an open seat, the Dakota's aren't that (atlas) blue and the Dems have a few decent candidates that could run here.
Tennessee: Safe R. Pretty much every Democrat that ran here in the last few years statewide was a joke. No reason to see that changing in the near future.
Texas: Safe R. It's not an open seat, the Dems don't have much of a bench here whereas the Republicans have plenty of ambitious types looking for a promotion if Abbott was to somehow fold.
Wisconsin: Toss-up. Like Michigan, the Republicans probably have the stronger bench despite the state generally having a blue tilt. I doubt Walker runs again, he would probably struggle anyway. The main risk factor for the Republicans is a competitive Senate seat.
Wyoming: Safe R. Do Democrats even exist here?

[Kingpoleon]

Biden Presidency[43-45 approval ratings on Election Day, 2018 voting lines polls]

CA - Gavin Newsom
CO - Walker Stapleton
FL - Marco Rubio
GA - Jason Carter or Rick Allen
IL - Alex Giannoulius
IA - Matt Schultz
MD - O'Malley/Brown
MN - Patricia Anderson
NY - Lee Zeldin
OH - Mike Duffey
PA - Ryan Costello
TX - George P. Bush
VT - Phil Scott
WI - Sean Duffy

Uh, Lee Zeldin isn't winning statewide in deep atlas red NY.

He's more moderate than Kirk, and is about where Pataki is ideologically.

[smoltchanov]

Biden Presidency[43-45 approval ratings on Election Day, 2018 voting lines polls]

CA - Gavin Newsom
CO - Walker Stapleton
FL - Marco Rubio
GA - Jason Carter or Rick Allen
IL - Alex Giannoulius
IA - Matt Schultz
MD - O'Malley/Brown
MN - Patricia Anderson
NY - Lee Zeldin
OH - Mike Duffey
PA - Ryan Costello
TX - George P. Bush
VT - Phil Scott
WI - Sean Duffy

Uh, Lee Zeldin isn't winning statewide in deep atlas red NY.

He's more moderate than Kirk, and is about where Pataki is ideologically.

Except for being solidly pro-life....