Biden in the GE.
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  Biden in the GE.
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Author Topic: Biden in the GE.  (Read 1004 times)
YaBoyNY
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« on: October 03, 2015, 02:52:07 PM »

So, lets assume Biden jumps into the race and clenches the nomination in a relatively easy contest as Clinton's campaign falls apart. With the nomination behind him, and with your choice of VP, how does he fare in the general election against any of the likeliest Republican candidates? What groups does he improve over Obama with? What groups would he decline with? Are there areas where he'd do better and worse than Obama did?
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Crumpets
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2015, 03:06:23 PM »
« Edited: October 03, 2015, 03:26:12 PM by Thinking Crumpets Crumpet »

I think Biden's chances in the general have been overestimated in recent polling. Remember right before Hillary got in all the polls that showed her 10+ points up on Bush and Rubio? People are saying they support Biden because he really hasn't had to take any policy positions or face widespread scrutiny in the media, so of course he sounds preferable to the Republicans. If he were to get in, I think he'd end up a couple of points behind Hillary in one-on-one general matchups. The gender gap would close, with Biden winning more men and fewer women. Racial voting patters would probably be pretty stagnant, although I could see Republicans picking up a few Latino voters if they nominate Bush, Rubio, or Cruz (but still no more than 30%), and losing some if they nominate another candidate.

One advantage of Biden is that he's the most likely Democratic candidate to carry Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. If that happens, I don't see any way the Republicans win the election regardless of the popular vote.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2015, 06:17:40 PM »

I think he would have the advantage, considering that the Republican contenders are pretty bad.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2015, 05:43:44 PM »

Easily wipes out most everyone.

274 - 264: Christie/Pataki


304 -234: Paul


302 - 236: Bush


269 - 269: Rubio


327 - 211: Kasich
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2015, 06:21:47 PM »

Easily wipes out most everyone.

274 - 264: Christie/Pataki


304 -234: Paul


302 - 236: Bush


269 - 269: Rubio


327 - 211: Kasich

Why can he win Arizona, Missouri, and North Carolina but not Florida?
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Higgs
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« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2015, 02:37:45 PM »

Easily wipes out most everyone.

274 - 264: Christie/Pataki


304 -234: Paul


302 - 236: Bush


269 - 269: Rubio


327 - 211: Kasich

Lmao no democrat is winning west virginia
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2015, 03:27:03 PM »

Biden's nomination makes the race more of a referendum on the Obama Administration than anything else, and gives the GOP candidate a bigger boost in the eyes of voters who want "change".

On thie other hand, I think he's the Democrats' strongest candidate, although I don't think that they see this (much in the same way that the GOP doesn't see Kasich as their strongest candidate).
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bagelman
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2015, 10:11:46 PM »

I have my doubts that he's as strong as some say, but I think he's stronger than Hillary.
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jfern
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2015, 11:06:38 PM »

I have my doubts that he's as strong as some say, but I think he's stronger than Hillary.

I feel like he and Sanders end up about the same strength. Both are and will be stronger than Hillary.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2015, 11:15:31 PM »

I think we've been through this enough times to know that primary strength means f*** all once the general gets started.

I think Biden and Hillary are stronger than Sanders overall. Biden and Hillary have stronger connections with minority voters and would likely ensure their turnout as strong as is necessary. Biden, I think is being overestimated in polling so far. I'm a huge fan and I think he'd be a great president, but the issue whether he'd be a different kind of candidate. The party activists, clearly want something different, but is Candidate Biden treated differently to maybe-Candidate Biden?
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jfern
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2015, 11:20:10 PM »

I think we've been through this enough times to know that primary strength means f*** all once the general gets started.

I think Biden and Hillary are stronger than Sanders overall. Biden and Hillary have stronger connections with minority voters and would likely ensure their turnout as strong as is necessary. Biden, I think is being overestimated in polling so far. I'm a huge fan and I think he'd be a great president, but the issue whether he'd be a different kind of candidate. The party activists, clearly want something different, but is Candidate Biden treated differently to maybe-Candidate Biden?

The general election polls show Hillary < Sanders < Biden. I think Sanders equals Biden once he has Biden's name recognition.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2015, 11:34:24 PM »

I think we've been through this enough times to know that primary strength means f*** all once the general gets started.

I think Biden and Hillary are stronger than Sanders overall. Biden and Hillary have stronger connections with minority voters and would likely ensure their turnout as strong as is necessary. Biden, I think is being overestimated in polling so far. I'm a huge fan and I think he'd be a great president, but the issue whether he'd be a different kind of candidate. The party activists, clearly want something different, but is Candidate Biden treated differently to maybe-Candidate Biden?

The general election polls show Hillary < Sanders < Biden. I think Sanders equals Biden once he has Biden's name recognition.

You may be right, but I'm not extrapolating GE prospects at this point.
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