Kyrgyzstan parliamentary elections - October 4, 2015
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  Kyrgyzstan parliamentary elections - October 4, 2015
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Author Topic: Kyrgyzstan parliamentary elections - October 4, 2015  (Read 1737 times)
politicus
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« on: October 04, 2015, 05:49:55 AM »
« edited: October 04, 2015, 01:44:15 PM by politicus »

Okay, I will go with Hash and say, this might be an actual election, although I still expect Zimbabwe style levels of electoral fraud, but at least lots of parties are running - even if they are basically all the same.

http://www.rferl.org/content/kyrgyzstan-elections-unpredictable-democracy/27285940.html

120 seats to be elected to the Supreme Council using PR in a single nationwide constituency.

No party is allowed to hold more than 65 seats.

Gender quota of minimum 30% and ethnic minority quota of 15%.


Brief background:

Divided by the Tien-Shan mountains. Northern Kyrgyzstan is more industrialised as has the Russian population, while the south still relies more on agriculture, has higher population and more Muslims, both ethnic Kyrgyzian and others.

Kyrgyz nationalism is on the rise and they have been clampdown on sexual minorities and all civic groups that fight for actual liberal democracy or civil rights.


Russian influence:

- Gazprom is King in Kyrgyzstan.
- Russian media is the staple diet for the mases.
- The Moscow-led Eurasian Union has given Russian exports a boost.
- Russian military base and "advisors".


China:

- Chinese economic expansion - its construction of gleaming pylons and new,
- Giving the locals un-potholed roads through Kyrgyz mountains and valleys.


West:

US has lost its military base in Kyrgyzstan (Putin still has his). Western NOGs try to prop up civil society and human rights groups making Western influence unpopular with the elite.


Migration:

One million+ Kyrgyz have left, a fifth of the population, most of them ending up as cheap low-skilled workers all over Russia.


Fairly mixed population with minorities of Russians, Tartars, various Caucasian groups and Kyrgyz.

Kyrgyzstan's president Almazbek Atambayev isn't as thieving as his predecessors (or his neighbours), but is pretty authoritarian, but claims he will leave voluntarily in two years.

Ten years ago the Kyrgyz made the "Tulip Revolution" expelling tyrant Askar Akayev (first president and his insanely corrupt family.

Five years ago resident Kurmanbek Bakiyev was driven out (currently in exile in Belarus ) followed by inter-ethnic clashes.

Kyrgyz democracy:

1) the usual scheming oligarchic elite.
2) ineffectual parliament.
3) pluralistic and unpredictable with no less than 14 parties competing.
4) Kyrgyz government has introduced a biometric voting system to eliminate fraud. But the important thing will be whether vote tabulation will be fair.
5) most parties led by oligarchs forming cynical alliances with arch rivals whenever it suits them with little difference in terms of policy.
6) systemic corruption, unbearable fuel and electricity price hikes, a tumbling currency.
7) Kyrgyz politicians love starting protest movements, blocking roads, or inciting violence if things don't go their way.
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politicus
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« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2015, 06:13:21 AM »
« Edited: October 04, 2015, 01:39:25 PM by politicus »

The distribution in the current Supreme Council:

Ata-Zhurt (28), "Fatherland", is ethnonationalist and Conservative has its base in the south and is led by Kamchybek Tashiyev. It supports ousted ex-president Kurmanbek Bakiyev.

Social Democratic Party (26), ironically represents neo-liberal, pro-Russian business interests and is led by Bakyt Beshimov. Founded by President Almazbek Atambayev, who formally stepped down as their leader after being elected in 2011.

Onuguu-Progress (0), regionalist and agrarian.

Ar-Namys (25), Russophile Conservatives led by Felix Kulov. Gets minority votes.

Respublika (23), founded in 2010 by oligarch Omurbek Babanov, probably the richest man in Kyrgyzstan, who was PM 2011-12. Campaigns for a multicultural society and ethnic tolerance, but otherwise serves the personal interests of Babanov.

Ata-Meken Socialist Party (18), founded in 1992 and led by former Speaker Omurbek Tekebayev, who is a former speaker of the Kyrgyz Parliament. Officially wants real democracy, liberal economic reforms (anti-oligarch power) and gradual creation of a welfare state. In reality not nearly as clean as this could indicate, but probably better than the others (low bar).

All these parties are basically just tools for their leaders.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2015, 06:39:35 AM »

The biggest obsession is the country's big gold mine. Should it be nationalised? Should its contract be renegotiated? Should its environmental impact be ameliorated?

Very interesting country.
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politicus
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« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2015, 06:50:42 AM »
« Edited: October 04, 2015, 09:30:20 AM by politicus »

They operate a threshold of 5% nationally and 0.5% in each of the 9 provinces (2 of them the cities of Bishkek and Osh) of eligible voters, and with a turnout of 55.9% last time that means that a party getting 8.8% of votes didn't get in.

The ethno-nationalists in Ata-Zhurt won a plurality last time based on their southern vote bank, but was close to not passing 0.5% in northern city Bishkek and the surrounding Chuy province.

If you belief the result is based purely on votes and not the result of a compromise between various oligarchs, this is a potentially interesting aspect.



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politicus
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« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2015, 01:52:13 PM »

President Almazbek Atambayevs Social Democratic Party set to get 27%. The joint list between Respublika and Ata-Jurt (marriage of convenience to get around the region based threshold) will get 20%, four others got in.

New parties (led by defectors from old ones):

Kyrgyzstan party 12%
Onuguu-Progress around 8%
Bir Bol around 7%


Old party:

Ata-Meken Socialist Party around 7%
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Zuza
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« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2015, 04:19:03 PM »

Turnout reported to be 57.56 %, which means that only Social Democratic Party, Respublika - Ata-Zhurt bloc, Kyrgyzstan Party and Onuguu-Progress pass the threshold.
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