Portugal Legislative Elections, 10/04/2015

[VPH]

PS/PCP/BE - 50.87%
PSD/CDS - 38.55%

These results are incredibly frustrating. By all accounts, the Portugese right was given a good thrashing and yet they will likely return to power...

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

PS/PCP/BE - 50.87%
PSD/CDS - 38.55%

These results are incredibly frustrating. By all accounts, the Portugese right was given a good thrashing and yet they will likely return to power...

Well, it's a bit like the Danish situation. The next "right-wing" government (PS support will moderate that) will be unstable and might collapse early, giving the left a unique opportunity to convincingly win the next elections. If the left would have "won" this election, however, it would have had only a narrow majority and in 2019 (if not earlier), the right would be ready for a big victory. In the long run, this might benefit the left.

Yes, I'm seeing some news outlets speculate on June - October 2016 timeframe for new elections.

[Antonio the Sixth]

When will the foreign votes be counted?

[Hans-im-Glück]

When will the foreign votes be counted?

I'm not sure, but I heard that on October 14th we know the results from the Portuguese in all the world.

You can 99.9% sure that the result will be PSD 3, PS 1

[Antonio the Sixth]

When will the foreign votes be counted?

I'm not sure, but I heard that on October 14th we know the results from the Portuguese in all the world.

You can 99.9% sure that the result will be PSD 3, PS 1

I see, thanks.

So Portugal is another country where expats lean right?

[VPH]

I know my grandparents are strong PSD supporters in Canada. My dad is a PSD supporter but doesn't vote, and my mom is probably for PS.

[Hans-im-Glück]

When will the foreign votes be counted?

I'm not sure, but I heard that on October 14th we know the results from the Portuguese in all the world.

You can 99.9% sure that the result will be PSD 3, PS 1

I see, thanks.

So Portugal is another country where expats lean right?

The Portuguese outside from Europe are very rightwing. Especially in South Africa and North America. In Brazil too, but not so extreme.

In Europe it is different. The Portuguese in France or Switzerland voting mainly for the PS

[Hash]

When will the foreign votes be counted?

I'm not sure, but I heard that on October 14th we know the results from the Portuguese in all the world.

You can 99.9% sure that the result will be PSD 3, PS 1

I see, thanks.

So Portugal is another country where expats lean right?

Portuguese expats in the EU (seems like most of the votes come from France) are quite solidly leftist (40.2% PS vs. 29.6% PSD, with the seats splitting one to one), which is not surprising in the least. On the other hand, the rest of the world constituency is extremely right-wing, going over 55% PSD last time. Unsurprisingly, most votes seem to come from Brazil, followed by the US/Canada and Africa - all three of which were solidly right-wing too. Which isn't very surprising, especially Portuguese people in Seth Efrika.

[Mogrovejo]

When will the foreign votes be counted?

I'm not sure, but I heard that on October 14th we know the results from the Portuguese in all the world.

You can 99.9% sure that the result will be PSD 3, PS 1

I see, thanks.

So Portugal is another country where expats lean right?

There are two emigration electoral circles, Europe and Out-of-Europe, each electing 2 MPs. Europe leans PS, so usually the seats end up divided, although the PS can win both in a good year; Out-of-Europe is very PSD and they tend to win both seats there.

Perhaps it'd be more accurate to say that mainland immigrants lean left while islanders (that make most of the immigrant population in the USA, Canada, Brazil, Venezuela, South Africa) are overwhelmingly right-wing.

If there's going to be a right-wing minority government dependent of PS MPs' outside support, what are the chances that it will collapse before 2019?

I don't know, things are still a bit fuzzy. I don't think Portugal is used to a national minority government. This may not last very long at all.

Minority governments in Portugal:

1976 - PS won a plurality. Governed the first two in a parliamentary agreement with the CDS, then a formal government coalition that lasted one year. Fell once the CDS withdrew from the govenrment. A PSD+CDS+PPM coalition won the following elections with an absolute majority.

1985 - PSD won a plurality. Formed a minority government that lasted for 2 years, with PS or CDS support. Fell to a motion of no confidence. PSD went to win an absolute majority in 1987.

1995 - PS won a plurality. Lasted the entire 4 years legislature, relying on the support of either the PSD or the CDS. Went to win the following elections with a larger plurality.

1999 - Another PS plurality, now with 115 seats. Relied mostly on buying a CDS MP with pork to the municipality he was also the president (in the process, that municipality became the richest in the country). Lasted for 2 years, fell after the a bad result in the municipal elections. Lost the following elections and PSD+CDS formed an absolute majority government.

2009 - PS plurality. Lasted for 2 years, relying on PSD support. Fell after requesting and negotiating the bailout with the troika.

PS should let PSD form a minority government, wait for them to come up with an austerity budget, and promptly refuse to vote it. Then new elections would be called, and PS would be well positioned to win them.

Perhaps, but I find it doubtful. There has been an almost 10 points swing between the PS and the coalition in the last six months and I'm not sure what is going to reverse that trend now - surely not something that would be seen as creating  instability so soon. Portugal is already doing fiscal easing this year and it's very unlikely that the fiscal stance will change back in the next ones. The differences between any PSD or PS budget will only be in details because the country as a very tight budgetary rope to walk, barring violations of the EFC.

PS/PCP/BE - 50.87%
PSD/CDS - 38.55%

These results are incredibly frustrating. By all accounts, the Portugese right was given a good thrashing and yet they will likely return to power...

I've said in the other thread that this isn't a proper analytical grid to apply to Portugal and that people shouldn't expect a government coalition between the PS and the far-left parties. There's a reason why it never happened in 40 years, in spite of many opportunities.

At the end of the day, the PS is much closer to the PSD and  the CDS than to the BE or the PCP. Those parties have no interest in entering governments because that would probably mean death to them, or at least a serious coma a la Lib Dems in the UK- and these elections showed once again how hard is life in Portugal for non-established parties. Perhaps it'd make more sense to see the BE and PCP as analogous to the FN in France.

[tpfkaw]

Perhaps it'd make more sense to see the BE and PCP as analogous to the FN in France.

But the FN would love to be in a government coalition, even as a junior partner.

[Mogrovejo]

Perhaps it'd make more sense to see the BE and PCP as analogous to the FN in France.

But the FN would love to be in a government coalition, even as a junior partner.

Yeah, at least in some government coalitions, to finish off the dédiabolisation. In that sense, it's not applicable; and, of course, the two-round system single-member system means they aren't a parliamentary actor. More in the sense that they don't belong to the "party of power/governance arch", rely a bit on disaffected/protest voters who aren't easy to label from an ideological prism and have a platform that isn't easy to juggle with the other parties.

[Mogrovejo]

And PAN got its seat. Persons-Animals-Nature.

That's quite cool.

Quite cool indeed. Wonder if they're anything like PvdD. Seem less radical to me though.

This result is proof that D'Hondt in 40-50 seats constituencies is one of the best systems we've got. I find it particularly fitting that PAN is also the better polling "small party" nationally.

They want to change the civil code to recognize animals as a third type of person (besides individual and collective ones), create a special subsidy for families with pets plus tax credits for veterinary care, criminalize roadkill, ban animals in circuses, hunting, bullfights, animal testing and fishing methods that cause unnecessary suffering, introduce alternative medicine and yoga in the public healthcare system, free distribution of menstrual cups and restriction of sanitary napkins and tampons, mandatory vegan meals in canteens and a 20% increase in the minimum salary. I've been reading plenty of chatter on social networks about them being anti-vax but didn't find anything whatsoever about vaccination in their program and stated positions- probably a position hold by individual members.

I didn't notice them in the last 4 years besides the occasional flag in anti-bullfights manifs and the former president quitting the party altogether accusing it of becoming too focused on company pets. I suspect plentiful of their electoral support comes from protest-y voters.

[DavidB.]

And PAN got its seat. Persons-Animals-Nature.

That's quite cool.

Quite cool indeed. Wonder if they're anything like PvdD. Seem less radical to me though.

This result is proof that D'Hondt in 40-50 seats constituencies is one of the best systems we've got. I find it particularly fitting that PAN is also the better polling "small party" nationally.

They want to change the civil code to recognize animals as a third type of person (besides individual and collective ones), create a special subsidy for families with pets plus tax credits for veterinary care, criminalize roadkill, ban animals in circuses, hunting, bullfights, animal testing and fishing methods that cause unnecessary suffering, introduce alternative medicine and yoga in the public healthcare system, free distribution of menstrual cups and restriction of sanitary napkins and tampons, mandatory vegan meals in canteens and a 20% increase in the minimum salary. I've been reading plenty of chatter on social networks about them being anti-vax but didn't find anything whatsoever about vaccination in their program and stated positions- probably a position hold by individual members.

I didn't notice them in the last 4 years besides the occasional flag in anti-bullfights manifs and the former president quitting the party altogether accusing it of becoming too focused on company pets. I suspect plentiful of their electoral support comes from protest-y voters.

The Dutch PvdD attracts a strange mix of on the one hand rich yuppies in inner cities and affluent suburbs (even quite some people who used to vote VVD before) and on the other hand anti-establishment protest voters in poor, peripherical areas. Wonder if it's the same with this party.

The PvdD is really focused on anti-globalism and "economic degrowth", explicity linking animal rights views to views regarding sustainability, arguing that it's the very framework and all-encompassing discourse of growth that leads to both the suffering of animals and the destruction of our planet. Does PAN share this worldview? Does it explicitly address the same points?

introduce alternative medicine and yoga in the public healthcare system (...) I've been reading plenty of chatter on social networks about them being anti-vax but didn't find anything whatsoever about vaccination in their program and stated positions- probably a position hold by individual members.

The PvdD is also known for this kind of shenanigans, although the anti-vax things aren't official party positions. Comes with the public this kind of party attracts, I suppose.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

In a way the Animal parties in their base remind me of the ever so brief Piratemania in Germany, which picked up quite a lot of votes from depressed neighbourhoods. I think it maybe because things like piracy or animal rights seem more tangible especially to the otherwise pessimistic voter. They think, hey, the economy's crap either way, might as well be nice to fish or whatever.

[Mogrovejo]

And PAN got its seat. Persons-Animals-Nature.

That's quite cool.

Quite cool indeed. Wonder if they're anything like PvdD. Seem less radical to me though.

This result is proof that D'Hondt in 40-50 seats constituencies is one of the best systems we've got. I find it particularly fitting that PAN is also the better polling "small party" nationally.

They want to change the civil code to recognize animals as a third type of person (besides individual and collective ones), create a special subsidy for families with pets plus tax credits for veterinary care, criminalize roadkill, ban animals in circuses, hunting, bullfights, animal testing and fishing methods that cause unnecessary suffering, introduce alternative medicine and yoga in the public healthcare system, free distribution of menstrual cups and restriction of sanitary napkins and tampons, mandatory vegan meals in canteens and a 20% increase in the minimum salary. I've been reading plenty of chatter on social networks about them being anti-vax but didn't find anything whatsoever about vaccination in their program and stated positions- probably a position hold by individual members.

I didn't notice them in the last 4 years besides the occasional flag in anti-bullfights manifs and the former president quitting the party altogether accusing it of becoming too focused on company pets. I suspect plentiful of their electoral support comes from protest-y voters.

The Dutch PvdD attracts a strange mix of on the one hand rich yuppies in inner cities and affluent suburbs (even quite some people who used to vote VVD before) and on the other hand anti-establishment protest voters in poor, peripherical areas. Wonder if it's the same with this party.

The PvdD is really focused on anti-globalism and "economic degrowth", explicity linking animal rights views to views regarding sustainability, arguing that it's the very framework and all-encompassing discourse of growth that leads to both the suffering of animals and the destruction of our planet. Does PAN share this worldview? Does it explicitly address the same points?

There are some neo-malthusian and degrowth undertones at some points, mostly in a chapter where they propose the "reorientation" of the TTIP and they included a Howard Zinn quote in the introduction, but it doesn't seem they emphasized that aspect at all. Their campaign was more based on bread and butter issues. With only 77K votes, it's a bit difficult to discern any demographic patterns. They got their best results in urban areas - top 3 districts were Algarve, Lisboa and Porto- but with no discernible pattern at municipal/parish level. My guess it that it's a mix between bourgeois-bohemians and people who simply feel good voting for a party that cares about pets and animals.

[DavidB.]

Hmm, well, that seems logical. They first need the public to simply see PAN as the defenders of animals in order to get well-known/elected, and only afterwards it makes sense to explicitly expand their range of views. I think it's safe to assume PvdD and PAN adhere to roughly the same ideology.

[politicus]

Left Bloc, PCP and the Greens have criticized President Cavaco Silva for assuming Portugal Ahead should form the next government and opened the door for a left wing coalition government.

Left Bloc has stated that the speech by Cavaco Silva was "an unacceptable pressure for the formation of a right-wing government."

PCP and the Greens are of the same opinion and have announced that they are "available" for forming a leftist government with PS. Which would be the first left wing coalition government ever.

On the 7th the National Political Committee of the PS challenged the left wing parties to clarify their conditions for the formation of a PS government with parliamentary support from the left.

"Unfortunately, the majority expressed a desire for change but it still does not translate into a majority government, (of parties) not satisfied in the mere exercise of a negative majority, only bent on creating obstacles, without ensuring a real and credible alternative government."

Might be a blame game for who is responsible for a continued PSD government, but there also seems to be some openings.

[Beezer]

Portugal Socialists say ready to form leftist government
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/20/us-portugal-government-consultations-idUSKCN0SE20420151020

[Antonio the Sixth]

Portugal Socialists say ready to form leftist government
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/20/us-portugal-government-consultations-idUSKCN0SE20420151020

Wow, looks like most of the forum was actually too pessimistic for once.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

So the President re-appointed the right-wing PM, even though the leftist parties have agreed to form a government and have a majority in Parliament...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/22/portugal-government-president-idUSL8N12M5KU20151022
Where do we go from here? Do the leftist parties vote no confidence in the government and force the President to appoint Costas as PM, or do we see new elections?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I hope they go through and pass the no-confidence motion.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Today Ferro Rodrigues (PS) was elected as Speaker of the parliament with the votes from PS, CDU and BE. The left show that they have a majority and the decision of President Cavaco that Passos Coelho (PSD) should form a new government is only a bad joke.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Coelho has always been a weird President

[Ebsy]

This is literal fascism.

[Zanas]

This is literal fascism.

Errr... What is ?

Portugal Socialists say ready to form leftist government
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/20/us-portugal-government-consultations-idUSKCN0SE20420151020

Wow, looks like most of the forum was actually too pessimistic for once.

I'm still pessimistic about the prospects of this "mariage de la carpe et du lapin" government. But hey what the hell, maybe something good will come out of it, for once.