Portugal Legislative Elections, 10/04/2015

[Zanas]

If there's going to be a right-wing minority government dependent of PS MPs' outside support, what are the chances that it will collapse before 2019?

I don't know, things are still a bit fuzzy. I don't think Portugal is used to a national minority government. This may not last very long at all.

[Antonio the Sixth]

112 - 99

Left close to absolute majority.

[DavidB.]

If there's going to be a right-wing minority government dependent of PS MPs' outside support, what are the chances that it will collapse before 2019?

I don't know, things are still a bit fuzzy. I don't think Portugal is used to a national minority government. This may not last very long at all.

That was my impression as well, but didn't know for sure. Interesting times

[Zanas]

In Lisbon, one freguesia still missing, but making the calculations it should be :
PSD 18
PS 18
BE 5+1
CDU 5

The +1 is the last D'Hondt seat there. It's very very close with PSD.

[Antonio the Sixth]

114 - 100

[jaichind]

Only places where seats are not final are Lisbon and Setúbal

[jaichind]

Seems to be that PPD/PSD.CDS-PP should end up with 104-106 seats.

[Zanas]

On 226 seats for mainland Portugal we should get :
PSD 100+4 = 104
PS 80+5 = 85
BE 19+1 = 20
CDU 15+2 = 17

With abroad seats, that should be 3 PSD and 1 PS :
PSD 107
PS 86
BE 20
CDU 17

[jaichind]

On 226 seats for mainland Portugal we should get :
PSD 100+4 = 104
PS 80+5 = 85
BE 19+1 = 20
CDU 15+2 = 17

With abroad seats, that should be 3 PSD and 1 PS :
PSD 107
PS 86
BE 20
CDU 17

Close one for PPD/PSD.CDS-PP.  If PS+BE > PPD/PSD.CDS-PP is there not a chance of a PS minority government with BE support from the outside ?

[y]

In Lisbon, one freguesia still missing, but making the calculations it should be :
PSD 18
PS 18
BE 5+1
CDU 5

The +1 is the last D'Hondt seat there. It's very very close with PSD.

my impression is that one seat will go to PAN (if the quota is something like 25.000 votes).
rtp.pt/noticias/eleicoes/legislativas/2015/110000-lisboa

[MaxQue]

The two missing places are:

The west of the City of Setubal and São Domingos de Benfica, in the north-west of Lisbon City.

[Zanas]

In Lisbon, one freguesia still missing, but making the calculations it should be :
PSD 18
PS 18
BE 5+1
CDU 5

The +1 is the last D'Hondt seat there. It's very very close with PSD.

my impression is that one seat will go to PAN (if the quota is something like 25.000 votes).
rtp.pt/noticias/eleicoes/legislativas/2015/110000-lisboa

Well I had overlooked that, but you, my friend, are absolutely right : in fact it would be the 45th seat. They just have to hope their result holds in the last freguesia.

[Antonio the Sixth]

119 - 102

Only Setubal and the foreign seats left to count.

[MaxQue]

And PAN got its seat. Persons-Animals-Nature.

[DavidB.]

And PAN got its seat. Persons-Animals-Nature.

That's quite cool.

[PetrSokol]

PSD-PP 104 vs. 122 left (including PAN)...only abroad is remaning (4)

[PetrSokol]

PSD-PP 104 vs. PS-BE 104...

[Zanas]

And PAN got its seat. Persons-Animals-Nature.

That's quite cool.

Quite cool indeed. Wonder if they're anything like PvdD. Seem less radical to me though.

This result is proof that D'Hondt in 40-50 seats constituencies is one of the best systems we've got. I find it particularly fitting that PAN is also the better polling "small party" nationally.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

PS/PCP/BE - 50.87%
PSD/CDS - 38.55%

These results are incredibly frustrating. By all accounts, the Portugese right was given a good thrashing and yet they will likely return to power...

[Hydera]

So unless PS somehow decides to attempt to make an deal with the other two left wing parties and they actually agree to it.

Im guessing Portugal is now in the unofficial rule of a PSD-PS grand coalition in all but name?

[DavidB.]

PS/PCP/BE - 50.87%
PSD/CDS - 38.55%

These results are incredibly frustrating. By all accounts, the Portugese right was given a good thrashing and yet they will likely return to power...

Well, it's a bit like the Danish situation. The next "right-wing" government (PS support will moderate that) will be unstable and might collapse early, giving the left a unique opportunity to convincingly win the next elections. If the left would have "won" this election, however, it would have had only a narrow majority and in 2019 (if not earlier), the right would be ready for a big victory. In the long run, this might benefit the left.

[Antonio the Sixth]

PS should let PSD form a minority government, wait for them to come up with an austerity budget, and promptly refuse to vote it. Then new elections would be called, and PS would be well positioned to win them.

[Hydera]

PS should let PSD form a minority government, wait for them to come up with an austerity budget, and promptly refuse to vote it. Then new elections would be called, and PS would be well positioned to win them.

Then PS declares new borrowing, Portugal's interest rates rise and borrowing becomes too expensive.

PS asks merkel for money.

Merkel says no.

PS backtracks and readopt austerity measures OR New elections

They win

Merkel still says No

PS backtracks and adopts austerity measures.

In case you think borrowing rates won't rise. It did back in 2011.


http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/portugal-government-bond-yield.png?s=gspt10yr&v=201510032352h&d1=20050101&d2=20151231

[Antonio the Sixth]

Portugal isn't quite in the same position as Greece, so the blackmail couldn't work quite effectively as it did against Tsipras. PS at least has enough leverage to enact some basic relief measures.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Another victory for an animal rights party! Sweet.