NBC/WSJ/Marist: Hillary losing in IA and NH

[mds32]

I think Iowa may be Tilt Republican at this present time. The voter registration numbers confirm it as the Republicans have far outpaced the Democrats and have solidified their leads. Don't say it's "off-year" because the Dems normally retake the lead in the midterms too. This time they declined in the midterm year and the GOP continued to grow.

GOP Pickups in this order:
Iowa
Florida
Colorado
Ohio
Virginia
New Hampshire
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
New Mexico (depending on the candidate)
Michigan
etc....

Iowa has consistently shown a GOP trend and open presidential years like these are where it will show if the trend is true or not.

[mds32]

So this is the "Election 2016 State Polls Aggregate" on Atlas right now:



GOP: 206 EV
Clinton: 255 EV

And if you add KY, AZ, and GA it become...
GOP: 241 EV
Clinton: 255