If Hillary Hadn't Entered the Race
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 09:06:55 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  If Hillary Hadn't Entered the Race
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Poll
Question: Which Democrats would have entered the primary race? (random order)
#1
Julian Castro
 
#2
Russ Feingold
 
#3
Antonio Villaraigosa
 
#4
Amy Klobuchar
 
#5
Jim Webb
 
#6
Martin O'Malley
 
#7
Elizabeth Warren
 
#8
Kirsten Gillibrand
 
#9
Joe Biden
 
#10
Andrew Cuomo
 
#11
Tim Kaine
 
#12
Bill de Blasio
 
#13
Al Gore
 
#14
Lincoln Chaffee
 
#15
Deval Patrick
 
#16
Brian Schweitzer
 
#17
Mark Warner
 
#18
Kathleen Sebelius
 
#19
Jeanne Shaheen
 
#20
John Kerry
 
#21
Sherrod Brown
 
#22
Deval Patrick
 
#23
Steve Beshear
 
#24
Julian Castro
 
#25
Bernie Sanders
 
#26
OTHER (Please specify)
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 56

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: If Hillary Hadn't Entered the Race  (Read 1921 times)
Progressive
jro660
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,580


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 05, 2015, 10:04:10 PM »
« edited: October 05, 2015, 10:07:38 PM by Progressive »

Now that you've selected who might run, what do you think the race would look like at this point?

For example:

Nationwide: 18% Cuomo; 12% Patrick; 8% Shaheen; 7% Klobuchar; 7% Warner, 5% Gillibrand, 5% Villaraigosa; etc.

Iowa: 17% Klobuchar, 12% Cuomo, etc

Same with NH and SC. I'll post mine shortly.

Go!

**NOTE: Instead of the second Julian Castro, I meant Joaquin Castro**
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,602
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2015, 10:05:59 PM »

You listed Julian Castro twice. Tongue
Logged
Progressive
jro660
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,580


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2015, 10:06:41 PM »


Whoops! Meant Joaquin Castro!
Logged
Abraham Reagan
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 2.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2015, 10:13:08 PM »

I feel like there might've been a revival of Gore fever and he'd be a leading contender now.
Logged
Brewer
BrewerPaul
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,622


Political Matrix
E: -6.90, S: -6.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2015, 10:20:28 PM »

I honestly don't believe the race would have many more candidates than it does now.

Also, there's no way I see Amy Klobuchar mounting a campaign for the White House...ever.
Logged
Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy
Alex
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,151
Argentina


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2015, 10:53:22 PM »

Biden,  mainly
Logged
Flake
Flo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,688
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2015, 10:55:46 PM »

Klobuchar, Webb, O'Malley, Gillibrand, Biden, Sanders.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2015, 11:16:39 PM »

Klobuchar, Webb, O'Malley, Gillibrand, Biden, Sanders.

My view.
Logged
Lyin' Steve
SteveMcQueen
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,310


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2015, 11:52:09 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2015, 11:54:42 PM by SteveMcQueen »

I don't understand the enthusiasm for these people.  Americans who don't follow politics closely don't know who most of these people are.  Even those who do follow politics closely don't know who half of these are.  Few of them have any accomplishments.  Even the poster can't tell the Castro brothers apart so he put Julian twice.

Here is what most people know about each of these:
Julian Castro:  Hispanic guy we keep seeing being mentioned for VP on CNN but never heard of otherwise.
Russ Feingold:  Guy who lost his senate race and hasn't been heard from since.  He did that campaign finance reform bill so he was probably an important senator.
Antonio Villaraigosa:  The guy who made up his own voice vote at the DNC that one time... also the mayor of some city?
Amy Klobuchar:  Some senator??
Jim Webb:  That guy from Virginia who worked for Ronald Reagan
Martin O'Malley:  The guy who everybody keeps joking about how he'll never win.
Elizabeth Warren:  Harvard professor who beat Scott Brown, fights corporations, pretends to be a native American.
Kirsten Gillibrand:  The less important senator from New York
Andrew Cuomo:  Governor of New York, probably a lot like Mario Cuomo?  We liked him.
Tim Kaine:  That guy who's a big shot in Virginia.
Bill de Blasio:  Really tall, beat Anthony Weiner, police hate him.
Lincoln Chaffee:  His name is Lincoln and he used to be a Republican.
Deval Patrick:  Guy from Massachusetts, gets mentioned on CNN as a VP candidate purely because he can win the black vote.
Brian Schweitzer:  Who??
Mark Warner:  Some guy who used to be a senator in Virginia
Kathleen Sebelius:  The woman who screwed up Obamacare and got the federal government sued
Jeanne Shaheen:  Some governor?
Sherrod Brown:  Some senator?
Steve Beshear:  Who??
Bernie Sanders:  The socialist guy with crazy hair

People know:  Joe Biden, Al Gore, John Kerry.

Compare with the Republican slate... every Republican has heard of Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, Rick Perry... and they know Jeb Bush is George W. Bush's brother.

Now as for Democrats with a national profile...
Senators:  Cory Booker, Dick Durbin, Al Franken, Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer.  Just by browsing this list I found out Warner and Shaheen are actually current Senators.  And I follow politics very closely.  These people are nobodies.
Governors:  Jerry Brown is the only democratic governor with more than 20% name recognition.
Rahm Emanuel could also make a run for it.

Seriously.  If Hillary hadn't gotten in, we might have a good democratic field, but it would probably look something like:
Cory Booker
Howard Dean
Chuck Schumer
Rahm Emanuel
Dick Gephardt
Jerry Brown
These are the real Democratic stars.  Anthony Villaraigosa?  Julian Castro?  Deval Patrick?  Kristen Gillibrand?  Nobody knows who these people are except political insiders playing the identity politics game.
That's not to say they're bad candidates... most of these are accomplished people who are probably presidential material (i.e. Deval Patrick was a two-term governor) but they are not the stars we imagine them to be.  Grass is always greener.  If it was a Howard Dean/Deval Patrick race, Patrick would be just another Jim Webb, a nobody with no national profile.
Logged
bballrox4717
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 949


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -3.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2015, 07:12:19 AM »

I dispute the fact that everybody has heard of all of the GOP candidates because they're that good. Sure, people know who Rubio, Christie, Fiorina, Carson are now, but all of the public's attention is on the GOP race right now. In fact, the press has been so obsessed with the identity of Obama's successor since his reelection that these candidates probably got more media attention than they actually deserved.

Also, for about 2 years nobody gave a damn about any other Democrat because Hillary was just that far ahead. No Democrat, aside from O'Malley, really made an aggressive effort to gain national attention. Obama and Clinton have long sucked the oxygen out of the room for any other Democrat.

Don't forget: a lot of serious presidential candidates were essentially political nobodies in the public eye before they ran. Nobody heard of Jimmy Carter before he ran. HW Bush was essentially a career bureaucrat. Nobody was hyping Howard Dean before he became a frontrunner either.
Logged
bballrox4717
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 949


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -3.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2015, 07:21:22 AM »

As for the list, I'd guess that Biden, Warren, Sanders, Cuomo, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, O'Malley, and Patrick would all likely run. I don't really see much of a path for the others.
Logged
ScottieF
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 349


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2015, 09:22:05 AM »

In addition to those currently in the race, Biden, Warren, Cuomo, Gillibrand. Nomination would probably be a contest between Biden and Warren at this point.
Logged
Bismarck
Chancellor
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2015, 01:04:40 PM »

LOL at Chuck Schumer as a presidential candidate.
Logged
SUSAN CRUSHBONE
evergreen
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,735
Antarctica


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2015, 01:31:44 PM »

biden, i think, would've hesitated like he's doing now, and that might dissuade most of the other potential candidates from running anyway. i think gillibrand's probably the only additional person to run.
Logged
#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,027
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2015, 04:05:38 PM »

I think it would have been Warren, Biden, O'Malley, Webb, and probably Gillibrand.
Logged
Progressive
jro660
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,580


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 06, 2015, 04:26:15 PM »

I don't understand the enthusiasm for these people.  Americans who don't follow politics closely don't know who most of these people are.  Even those who do follow politics closely don't know who half of these are.  Few of them have any accomplishments.  Even the poster can't tell the Castro brothers apart so he put Julian twice.

Here is what most people know about each of these:
Julian Castro:  Hispanic guy we keep seeing being mentioned for VP on CNN but never heard of otherwise.
Russ Feingold:  Guy who lost his senate race and hasn't been heard from since.  He did that campaign finance reform bill so he was probably an important senator.
Antonio Villaraigosa:  The guy who made up his own voice vote at the DNC that one time... also the mayor of some city?
Amy Klobuchar:  Some senator??
Jim Webb:  That guy from Virginia who worked for Ronald Reagan
Martin O'Malley:  The guy who everybody keeps joking about how he'll never win.
Elizabeth Warren:  Harvard professor who beat Scott Brown, fights corporations, pretends to be a native American.
Kirsten Gillibrand:  The less important senator from New York
Andrew Cuomo:  Governor of New York, probably a lot like Mario Cuomo?  We liked him.
Tim Kaine:  That guy who's a big shot in Virginia.
Bill de Blasio:  Really tall, beat Anthony Weiner, police hate him.
Lincoln Chaffee:  His name is Lincoln and he used to be a Republican.
Deval Patrick:  Guy from Massachusetts, gets mentioned on CNN as a VP candidate purely because he can win the black vote.
Brian Schweitzer:  Who??
Mark Warner:  Some guy who used to be a senator in Virginia
Kathleen Sebelius:  The woman who screwed up Obamacare and got the federal government sued
Jeanne Shaheen:  Some governor?
Sherrod Brown:  Some senator?
Steve Beshear:  Who??
Bernie Sanders:  The socialist guy with crazy hair

People know:  Joe Biden, Al Gore, John Kerry.

Compare with the Republican slate... every Republican has heard of Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, Rick Perry... and they know Jeb Bush is George W. Bush's brother.

Now as for Democrats with a national profile...
Senators:  Cory Booker, Dick Durbin, Al Franken, Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer.  Just by browsing this list I found out Warner and Shaheen are actually current Senators.  And I follow politics very closely.  These people are nobodies.
Governors:  Jerry Brown is the only democratic governor with more than 20% name recognition.
Rahm Emanuel could also make a run for it.

Seriously.  If Hillary hadn't gotten in, we might have a good democratic field, but it would probably look something like:
Cory Booker
Howard Dean
Chuck Schumer
Rahm Emanuel
Dick Gephardt
Jerry Brown
These are the real Democratic stars.  Anthony Villaraigosa?  Julian Castro?  Deval Patrick?  Kristen Gillibrand?  Nobody knows who these people are except political insiders playing the identity politics game.
That's not to say they're bad candidates... most of these are accomplished people who are probably presidential material (i.e. Deval Patrick was a two-term governor) but they are not the stars we imagine them to be.  Grass is always greener.  If it was a Howard Dean/Deval Patrick race, Patrick would be just another Jim Webb, a nobody with no national profile.

I beg to differ that Dick Gephardt is more of a Democratic star than Gillibrand...
Logged
VPH
vivaportugalhabs
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,682
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 06, 2015, 04:34:05 PM »

Julian Castro, Klobuchar, Webb, O'Malley, Biden, Gore, Patrick, Sanders

Nationwide:
Gore 25%, Biden 17%, Sanders 15%, Castro 12%, Klobuchar 12%, Patrick 9%, O'Malley 5%, Webb 3%, Chafee 2%

New Hampshire:
Gore 20%, Sanders 18%, Biden 17%, Klobuchar 13%, Patrick 10%, O'Malley 9%, Castro 8%, Webb 3%, Chafee 2%

Iowa
Gore 21%, Klobuchar 20%, Biden 18%, Sanders 17%, Castro 10%, O'Malley 8%, Patrick 4%, Webb 2%, Chafee 0%

South Carolina:
Gore 25%, Biden 21%, Patrick 15%, Klobuchar 11%, Castro 9%, Sanders 8%, Webb 8%, O'Malley 2%, Chafee 0%

Logged
#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,027
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 06, 2015, 04:35:38 PM »

Julian Castro, Klobuchar, Webb, O'Malley, Biden, Gore, Patrick, Sanders

Nationwide:
Gore 25%, Biden 17%, Sanders 15%, Castro 12%, Klobuchar 12%, Patrick 9%, O'Malley 5%, Webb 3%, Chafee 2%

New Hampshire:
Gore 20%, Sanders 18%, Biden 17%, Klobuchar 13%, Patrick 10%, O'Malley 9%, Castro 8%, Webb 3%, Chafee 2%

Iowa
Gore 21%, Klobuchar 20%, Biden 18%, Sanders 17%, Castro 10%, O'Malley 8%, Patrick 4%, Webb 2%, Chafee 0%

South Carolina:
Gore 25%, Biden 21%, Patrick 15%, Klobuchar 11%, Castro 9%, Sanders 8%, Webb 8%, O'Malley 2%, Chafee 0%



I highly doubt Gore would run, 2000 totally turned him off from Presidential politics. He could have ran again in 2004 on the basis that he should have been President. But it would have been interesting if Gore ran again this cycle.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 06, 2015, 05:32:32 PM »

The second Deval Patrick you listed is probably more likely to have run than the first.

Also, there's no way I see Amy Klobuchar mounting a campaign for the White House...ever.

Klobuchar met with the early primary state delegations at the 2012 DNC, she attended an Iowa-hosted inauguration party in 2013.  She made several Iowa trips in 2013/14.  She did fundraising for Iowa and New Hampshire candidates, as well as Colbert’s sister in that SC race.

She was basically one of the most transparent “I am running for president if Hillary Clinton doesn’t” Dems of this cycle.
Logged
Zacoftheaxes
Rookie
**
Posts: 129
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.52, S: -9.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 06, 2015, 07:07:54 PM »

I would imagine we'd have her current 4 competitors (Sanders, O'Malley, Webb, and Chaffee) as well as Andrew Cuomo, Mark Warner, Brian Schweitzer, Steve Beshear, Joe Manchin, and maybe Jared Polis for the hell of it. As for who would win in that race, I have no idea.
Logged
exopolitician
MATCHU[D]
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,892
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 06, 2015, 08:36:54 PM »

Gillibrand
Warren
Webb
O'Malley
Klobuchar
Brown
Chaffee
Franken
Schweitzer/and or Tester
Cuomo
Logged
Blue3
Starwatcher
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,035
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 06, 2015, 09:05:17 PM »

The same as now, plus Gillibrand and Klobuchar
Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 06, 2015, 09:21:11 PM »

National:
Sen. Claire McCaskill(MO) - 20%
Gov. Martin O'Malley(MD) - 19%
Sen. Cory Booker(NJ) - 18%
Mayor Bill DeBlasio(NY) - 16%
Rep. Jared Polis(CO) - 16%
Other/Undecided - 11%

Iowa:
Claire McCaskill - 27%
Cory Booker - 23%
Martin O'Malley - 18%

New Hampshire:
Bill DeBlasio - 31%
Cory Booker - 28%
Claire McCaskill - 24%

South Carolina:
Cory Booker - 25%
Martin O'Malley - 24%
Jared Polis - 21%

Nevada:
Jared Polis - 35%
Cory Booker - 21%
Martin O'Malley - 19%
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,976


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 06, 2015, 09:31:09 PM »

The party would be so much better off, instead of having a scandal plagued candidate that most of America dislikes as our front runner.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 07, 2015, 06:31:10 PM »

I would have liked Kaine, Vilsack, Gephardt, Tester, Booker, Gillibrand.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.069 seconds with 14 queries.