GOP might end up one short
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 03:17:02 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  GOP might end up one short
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: GOP might end up one short  (Read 2439 times)
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 05, 2015, 10:30:08 PM »



Considering the trends in Iowa and the likely R lean of OH, FL in a close election, this map is fairly realistic. Virginia is probably one of the last places I would expect to trend R in 2016, the DC suburbs can keep it blue. Colorado should be close as well. If the GOP loses Virginia, they need to win one of WI, PA, NH as they are not winning NV, NM in 2016. This election is about Virginia.
Logged
/
darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2015, 11:21:12 PM »

^Realistic map.

It would hurt so, so much for the Reps.
Logged
Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,826
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2015, 11:24:01 PM »

Not sure why the aggregate of posters continue to be bearish on a Democrat's chances in Colorado. It's a state that has been consistently sliding D, passed mail voting, and sees Democrats consistently under poll.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2015, 11:27:11 PM »

The fact that Clinton could lose Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and Colorado and still win the election should terrify Republicans.
Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2015, 11:57:06 PM »

The map is very realistic. That's the EC anti Republican bias.

Difficult to see how Republicans can win without Nevada and/or Virginia and both states are very difficult on their own.
Logged
TarHeelDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,448
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2015, 12:08:42 AM »

Simply put why the Republicans are very unlikely to win in 2016.
Logged
EliteLX
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,029
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.64, S: 0.85

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2015, 07:24:04 AM »

Been predicting that map sense the beginning. Most likely 2016 map.
Logged
ScottieF
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 349


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2015, 09:19:09 AM »

Very possible map, though I have a hunch Ohio will just barely stay blue. GOP has to win all of the three largest swing states to win: Florida, Virginia, Ohio. Dems only need one.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,625
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2015, 09:27:56 AM »

You can just as easily make a thread with the same map, except PA or VA on the Republican side, and gloat about the Democrats ending up one short. Yes, losing a close election would hurt.

Very possible map, though I have a hunch Ohio will just barely stay blue. GOP has to win all of the three largest swing states to win: Florida, Virginia, Ohio. Dems only need one.

All three of these states have been more Republican than the national average in 2008 and 2012.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2015, 09:32:25 AM »

Compared to 2000 and 2004, IA is trending slightly D.
Logged
bobloblaw
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,018
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2015, 09:42:52 AM »

Not sure why the aggregate of posters continue to be bearish on a Democrat's chances in Colorado. It's a state that has been consistently sliding D, passed mail voting, and sees Democrats consistently under poll.

Bernie might win CO, but Hillary is extremely unpopular there. She has been polling behind nearly all GOP candidates for well over a year.
Logged
King
intermoderate
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,357
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2015, 09:54:35 AM »

Close electoral maps are a rarity. If the Republicans lose, they aren't going to win Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and Florida inexplicably.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,801
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2015, 10:40:09 AM »

The one GOP candidate that can lose OH/Va is Donald Trump. And those states have collectively picked the winner.

Trump is a conservative but haven't been a GOPer, and OH usually like a Jeb or Kasich or Rubio. Dems can win with CO, but Trump can lose OH.
Logged
Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
Runeghost
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,367


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2015, 02:51:52 PM »

If we do end up with an election decided by a single EV, what are the odds that a faithless elector somewhere jumpstarts a constitutional crisis that will make 2000 look like a walk in the park?
Logged
SteveRogers
duncan298
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,155


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2015, 02:59:39 PM »

If we do end up with an election decided by a single EV, what are the odds that a faithless elector somewhere jumpstarts a constitutional crisis that will make 2000 look like a walk in the park?

Very very low since the electors are party loyalists hand-picked by either the state party or the candidates' campaigns themselves.
Logged
Taco Truck 🚚
Schadenfreude
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 958
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 06, 2015, 03:25:04 PM »

Close electoral maps are a rarity. If the Republicans lose, they aren't going to win Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and Florida inexplicably.

I'm no expert on this stuff.  But it would seem odd if Clinton were to run a good enough campaign to get close to winning that she would lose Florida and Ohio and Virginia... or two out of three.  In 2012 Obama won all three.  And Pennsylvania and Colorado.

Is being a woman worse than being black?

Every time Obama tries he wins Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Colorado and Pennsylvania.  People actually see Clinton losing a majority of those?  Over an email server that as far as we know never got hacked?
Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 06, 2015, 03:37:22 PM »

Close electoral maps are a rarity. If the Republicans lose, they aren't going to win Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and Florida inexplicably.

I'm no expert on this stuff.  But it would seem odd if Clinton were to run a good enough campaign to get close to winning that she would lose Florida and Ohio and Virginia... or two out of three.  In 2012 Obama won all three.  And Pennsylvania and Colorado.

Is being a woman worse than being black?

Every time Obama tries he wins Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Colorado and Pennsylvania.  People actually see Clinton losing a majority of those?  Over an email server that as far as we know never got hacked?

It's not about her server being hacked. It's about her having a private email server.
That's her sense of superiority and entitlement. She is better than the rest. Rules don't apply to her.

Such extreme hubris is despised by most people. Obama never displayed that.
Logged
Statilius the Epicurean
Thersites
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,596
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 06, 2015, 03:37:30 PM »

Simply put why the Republicans are very unlikely to win in 2016.

Uhh, why? That map is maybe +1 R. If the vote is +2 or +3 R more than one state will flip. Is it really very unlikely that a Republican will win the popular vote by 3 points?
Logged
Taco Truck 🚚
Schadenfreude
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 958
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 06, 2015, 06:33:35 PM »

Close electoral maps are a rarity. If the Republicans lose, they aren't going to win Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and Florida inexplicably.

I'm no expert on this stuff.  But it would seem odd if Clinton were to run a good enough campaign to get close to winning that she would lose Florida and Ohio and Virginia... or two out of three.  In 2012 Obama won all three.  And Pennsylvania and Colorado.

Is being a woman worse than being black?

Every time Obama tries he wins Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Colorado and Pennsylvania.  People actually see Clinton losing a majority of those?  Over an email server that as far as we know never got hacked?

It's not about her server being hacked. It's about her having a private email server.
That's her sense of superiority and entitlement. She is better than the rest. Rules don't apply to her.

Such extreme hubris is despised by most people. Obama never displayed that.

Having your own email server is "such extreme hubris" it will cause you to lose Ohio, Virginia, Florida and possibly Pennsylvania and/or Colorodo... states a black guy won?

Romney ripped the hard drives out of state owned computers and destroyed them... at tax payer expense.  How is having your own email server even mentionable compared to that?  And mind you what Romney did wasn't in my opinion disqualifying.

Only time will tell.  I have a feeling much like the "skewed polls" nonsense there will be a lot of Republicans eating crow in a little over a years time.  Better find more than an email server.
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 06, 2015, 06:53:19 PM »

It isnt that hard to see how Dems fall off in Iowa with its large rural population and FL (home state GOP) and Ohio in a close election. I agree that it's possible Colorado can still go D but Virginia would remain the tipping point.

DC suburbs like Fairfax seem like the last place to expect a significant GOP trend in 2016. The Dems won all the downballot races in 2013 even with lower turnout and Warner survived a near complete turnout collapse in 2014. Without VA the GOP needs one of:

NV- Look at the census and its D+2 PVI, quite unlikely if its close.

WI- Possible but polls have seemed to indicate Dems should be favored.

NH- Mixed polling so far, Nader hurt Gore here in 2000 and the counties in NH-2 have trended Dem enough this should remain slightly more D than national vote.

PA- Might be best GOP pickup opp, that said the Philly burbs don't seem like a huge GOP trend awaits and western PA might not fall much further for Dems. Hillary has problems now but theoretically she is a good fit for PA.

MN/MI: Good luck there.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.042 seconds with 12 queries.