Make five predictions about 2020, and discuss the previous poster's predictions
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  Make five predictions about 2020, and discuss the previous poster's predictions
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Author Topic: Make five predictions about 2020, and discuss the previous poster's predictions  (Read 2485 times)
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CrabCake
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« on: October 06, 2015, 12:27:52 PM »

My five predictions are:

1) there is a full scale uprising in Saudi Arabia, as the spillover from Yemen, Syria and Iraq combined with economic and political issues become too much to cope. The west has distanced itself from the royal family, and is recosying itself with Iran.

2) the coal industry in America is dead, with the majority of plants set to be mothballed and coal mining across the country, even in the Wyoming basin, has slumped.

3) the Eurozone does not exist anymore.

4) the ANC has been surprisingly forced into a minority government in South Africa

5) there is a military coup in Brazil and Venezuela.
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dead0man
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2015, 01:43:44 PM »

1.Virtual reality video games are finally good and finally go mainstream
2.people start to leave (or die of old age with no retirees replacing them) the desert southwest/california in mass
3.Puerto Rico becomes the 51st state
4.Russia invades somewhere, the West cries and sits on their hands
5.People in Gaza launch rockets, Israel responds, idiots in the west blame Israel.

My review of Crabby....

1.Possibly, but you have to consider Iran's relation to Assad, the Hezzys and Putin.
2.agreed
3.maybe, probably reduced in number if not gone
4.we can dream!
5.I don't see that happening in Brazil....Argentina maybe
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2015, 02:01:54 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2015, 02:04:12 PM by DavidB. »

My five predictions

1. The Euro still exists and people are still fed up with it, but can't do anything about the Brussels machine
2. A "new right" party has become the largest party in a Western European democracy other than Switzerland (Denmark? Sweden? Austria? Netherlands?)
3. "Identity" issues have become even more politically salient in more countries, at the cost of economic issues (although both are increasingly intertwined as well)
4. Another Intifada has/had been going on in Israel, benefiting absolutely nobody in this universe, worsening everything in the conflict that had already been dire enough
5. Another Theo van Gogh/Charlie Hebdo-like free speech-related Islamist terror attack will have taken/will take place, possibly in Germany, where the situation in regard to immigration will become as polarized as in Sweden

Reply to dead0man:

1. Might be "finally good" but doubt it will already be mainstream, but things go fast, you never know, you could be right.
2. Hmm, don't think so. It is still an attractive place to live. People will cope.
3. Don't think so, but I'm not really updated as to how likely this is.
4. Pretty likely.
5. Extremely likely.
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The Last Northerner
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2015, 02:33:57 PM »

My 5

1. After losing a very winnable 2016, the GOP will re-invent themselves (ala Clinton 92) to stop President Hilary Clinton's reelection. Due to their disadvantages in demographics and the electoral college, their victory is somewhere between narrow and modest.

2. A UMP/LR victory in France 2017 doesn't stop the rise of the FN who will finally transform their popular support into seats in PACA and NPDC-Picardie, if not other parts as well.

3. The Cambodian People's Party will face more protests and turmoil, esp. from their young population. Their vote fixing may not stop the Cambodian National Rescue Party from winning their second first election*yikes*.

4. Regardless of who wins in Cambodia, they will sign the TPP.

5. Meat consumption will continue to decline in Western countries and the negative envirornmental impact will finally enter public debate, albiet on the fringe and/or local level. (Probably wishful thinking on my part)


Response to DavidB.

1. Agree. The Euro will become less popular but still lives.
2. Also agree..... maybe Denmark or Austria out of the ones listed.
3. Mixed. I think they will increase in many nations but at the cost of other social issues instead of economics. Economics will always be important.
4. Yeah... I don't see Israel/Palestine become peaceful anytime soon.
5. Yes but I think another terrorist attack is more likely elsewhere, perhaps France again?
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CrabCake
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2015, 02:44:32 PM »

David's predictions

1) I think yes, if the euro still exists, people would still be annoyed about it but unable to get rid of it. (As ironically, that would require pan-European collaboration.
2) yes, but only in an election cyclic way. I don't see any populist right parties becoming the new natural parties of power, or anything.
3) actually I think the opposite. For example: there's a lot of young Northern Irish who are just annoyed at the catholic vs Protestant, loyalist vs Republican fleg debates and honestly just want focus on economic issues. Similarly there's increasing resentment of both the old and new elite in South Africa. Similar things are happening in Malaysia Etc. I think drawing pan-global trends is fraught with confusion - obviously some counties ethnic identity will become ever more politicised (e.g. The Lavent) but I don't think there will be an increase.
4) yes, I consider it quite likely and Israel will have to be measured in
 its resource, considering its relationship with the West is in a pretty poor state as it is.
5) hopefully not, but yes I would expect the far-right (either of the homegrown or Islamist variety) will do their best to destroy any equilibrium worked out in society.

Last Northerner's predictions:

1) they can certainly try, but I don't think they have someone savvy enough to pull it off
2) yes, the FN will rise depressingly, unless they have some financial scandal.
3) yes, I think the CPP like the BN in Malaysia is in an incredibly precarious situation for next election.
4) yes, for obvious reasons
5) it can certainly try, but there will be violent public blowback

My predictions:

1) China has a recession
2) Putin falls, but is replaced by an even more nationalistic and odious figure.
3) marijuana is legalised in over half of U.S. states.
4) The King of Thailand dies, and his secession is contested, setting off a dangerous series of skirmishes.
5) the Kim dynasty in dPRK is deposed and replaced with a Chinese puppet.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2015, 03:09:21 PM »

That's only five years away

Anyway futurology is basically astrology except without the empirical basis that the stars exist but I'm bored so....

1) There will be at least two new members of the United Nations by the end of 2020 - pick two from Catalonia, Euskera, Kurdistan, Scotland, Bougainville, Alawite State and perhaps a couple others (the third and the fifth, provided the referendum is finally held, are the most likely)
2) The Radical Left revival will have petered out to nothing by this point with very little in terms of positive achievements, although SYRIZA may well still be in power
3) Tech Journalists and fanboys will continue to hype the coming age of Hard AI and interconnectivity boasting how it will solve all economic and social problems. Skepticism will be as thin as the evidence.
4) In the humanities and social sciences the positivist and utilitarian revival will start having a bigger impact including movements like effective altruism, Open Data/#alltrials and cultural evolution studies. Although this will continue to have no impact on pop intellectuals and the public, even the educated public, will remain mostly in the dark.
5) This cartoon will still be relevant (yes, down to the fact that there will still be newspapers)

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Crumpets
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« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2015, 03:22:49 PM »

In response to Tetro Kornbluth:
1) I agree, and I think Kurdistan and Scotland are the most likely with Catalonia in a close third.
2) Depends on how you're defining "Radical Left," but I can see it happening, at least in the EU.
3) Yes.
4) I hope so.
5) Definitely.

My predictions:
1) Moldova is a candidate to join the EU, but the problem of Transnistria leads to a resurgence in Unionism with Romania as an alternative.
2) Corbyn becomes PM, but flames out in grand fashion leading to an anti-Labour landslide.
3) The Dalai Lama dies and China attempts to replace him in Lhasa, but a competing claim in India leads to increased tensions.
4) Venezuela is in civil war
5) Fidel Castro dies and Cuba quietly begins to liberalize its government and economy.
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Bigby
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« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2015, 04:48:23 PM »

In response to TCC:

1. So wouldn't that put Moldova in the EU anyway as Romania is already a member of it?
2. Oh God, that would be hilarious. I think Corbyn would be that bad.
3. Oooooh, a Buddhist Cold War!
4. I'm surprised that is not happening already.
5. I could see that making ending the embargo easier once the rest of the world learns about it, but what about Raul?

My predictions:

1. In the US, Whites nationally will start voting like Southern whites. Blacks will vote like Hispanics do currently. Hispanics will vote like Blacks do currently.
2. Greece will have a Golden Dawn PM.
3. Saudi Arabia will begin a nuclear weapons program out of fear of Iran having nukes.
4. Macho gay men and lipstick lesbians will replace fabulous men and butch lesbians as the homosexual stereotypes.
5. The iPhone series will discontinue after a disastrous performance for the iPhone 8, which was released in 2019.
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SWE
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« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2015, 05:10:08 PM »

5. I could see that making ending the embargo easier once the rest of the world learns about it, but what about Raul?
He said he's stepping down in 2018

skip, obviously
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2015, 05:29:09 PM »

ssuperflash's predictions

1. No, President Donald Trump (R) will be the incumbent in 2020.
2. Maybe....stranger things have happened.
3. I dunno...what would be in it for China? And which country? That seems important.
4. I'm not gonna try to predict the unpredictable.
5. That's optimistic. Tongue

1. White liberals in the US will continue to be an increasingly endangered species due to racial polarization and lower birth rates than white conservatives.
2. The media will have moved on from their obsession with Pope Francis.
3. There will be the same (or less) number of ex-Presidents of the United States as there is today.
4. Climate change will have increasingly visible adverse effects.
5. Some advance in neuroscience will be much hyped and exaggerated.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2015, 06:42:05 PM »

1) Moldova is a candidate to join the EU, but the problem of Transnistria leads to a resurgence in Unionism with Romania as an alternative.

In response to TCC:
1. So wouldn't that put Moldova in the EU anyway as Romania is already a member of it?

Let me clarify. Unionists in Moldova will push for joining Romania as a sort of "express" EU membership option, as Moldova joining on its own would likely be a long and draining path.

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Leinad
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« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2015, 07:29:04 PM »

PR's predictions:

1. I guess I could see that. But I could also see a demographic trend going the other way: Republicans reach out to minorities as whites naturally drift leftward.
2. Probably, but religious liberals will still cling to him as an alternative to the religious right in the US.
3. Of course--if both Carter and 41 are still alive by then, I'd be shocked.
4. I'd imagine so. And then the government will do something that is largely ineffective in helping the problem.
5. Sure--people love overhyping stuff.

Mine:

1. The Republicans will have a significant majority in congress after winning the 2018 election in a landslide.
2. Both the UK and Canada will have bearded Prime Ministers.
3. An openly gay candidate will be in a major party presidential nomination race. Social conservatives will go insane.
4. Marijuana is legalized in a majority of states.
5. Cristiano Ronaldo will retire after winning his second straight MLS Cup.
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Computer89
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« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2015, 08:19:17 PM »

PR's predictions:

1. I guess I could see that. But I could also see a demographic trend going the other way: Republicans reach out to minorities as whites naturally drift leftward.
2. Probably, but religious liberals will still cling to him as an alternative to the religious right in the US.
3. Of course--if both Carter and 41 are still alive by then, I'd be shocked.
4. I'd imagine so. And then the government will do something that is largely ineffective in helping the problem.
5. Sure--people love overhyping stuff.

Mine:

1. The Republicans will have a significant majority in congress after winning the 2018 election in a landslide.
2. Both the UK and Canada will have bearded Prime Ministers.
3. An openly gay candidate will be in a major party presidential nomination race. Social conservatives will go insane.
4. Marijuana is legalized in a majority of states.
5. Cristiano Ronaldo will retire after winning his second straight MLS Cup.

1.I agree that Republicans will have a significant majority in congress in 2018
2.No Corbyn will lose
3. Maybe
4. Yes I see marijuna being legalized everywhere but the south
5. Dont know Soccer

Mine

1. The US will be in a recession by then
2. Republicans win beat the Democratic incumbent and win in 1992 style realigning election.
3. ISIS will be destroyed
4. US has better relations with Iran then Saudi Arabia
5. Blazers make the Finals and win the title

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angus
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« Reply #13 on: October 09, 2015, 08:16:36 PM »



1. The US will be in a recession by then
2. Republicans win beat the Democratic incumbent and win in 1992 style realigning election.
3. ISIS will be destroyed
4. US has better relations with Iran then Saudi Arabia
5. Blazers make the Finals and win the title



1.  disagree.  Interest rates will be high, investing will be good, and unemployment will be low.
2.  Who knows?  My guess is that whichever one wins 2016 will win 2020, because of the economy.
3.  ISIS will not need to be destroyed because it will have dissipated by then.
4.  Hopefully.
5.  Lakers.


mine:
1.  The average Joe will have a watchphone.
2.  The obesity rate in the US will be lower than it is now.
3.  Guns will be as readily available in the US as they are now.
4.  We will be able to visit Cuba as easily as we visit Mexico.
5.  The Philadelphia Eagles will have a sorry offensive line.
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Thunderbird is the word
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« Reply #14 on: October 09, 2015, 09:22:39 PM »

1. Possible though I really don't see much improvement over current I-Phones in terms of quality.
2. Based on current trends yes, though it won't really be noticeable yet.
3. Agreed
4. Agreed
5. Can't really say, not much of a football fan.

Mine:
1. 3-D Printers will have dropped in price and become widely available.
2. There will be a continuing increase in left-wing activism in the U.S on issues like student debt, the environment, labor rights and other issues spurred on by the spirit of OWS and the Bernie Sanders campaign.
3. Ethnic tensions in Europe will continue to skyrocket, with the rise of far-right movements. In response to Israel attacking Gaza yet again there will be some massive atrocity, perhaps a Synagogue bombing in Paris. In response harsh anti-muslim laws will be passed.
4. With gay marriage fading into the background Transgender Rights will become the next big culture war battle.
5. There will be another major recession.
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RFayette
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« Reply #15 on: October 10, 2015, 11:28:06 AM »

1. Agreed, though I'm not sure how big the demand will be for them.
2. No doubt left-wing activism will increase, especially if a Republican is elected President in 2016.
3. Agreed.  Restrictions on Muslims will likely increase in Europe in the future.
4. Agreed.
5. Agreed, though it may depend on your definition of "major."

Mine:
1. Whoever is elected President in 2016 will lose in 2020 due to a recession occurring sometime between 2018 and 2020.
2. Significant automation will occur in the U.S. fast-food industry.
3. Litigation over Christian [florists/bakers/etc.] will continue at a constant or increasing rate over the gay marriage issue.
4.  The Cubs will do exceptionally well, winning the World Series this year and doing so again within the next 5 years.
5.  Smartphones will stop increasing in average size and possibly begin to decrease again.
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Computer89
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« Reply #16 on: October 10, 2015, 05:47:42 PM »



1. The US will be in a recession by then
2. Republicans win beat the Democratic incumbent and win in 1992 style realigning election.
3. ISIS will be destroyed
4. US has better relations with Iran then Saudi Arabia
5. Blazers make the Finals and win the title



1.  disagree.  Interest rates will be high, investing will be good, and unemployment will be low.
2.  Who knows?  My guess is that whichever one wins 2016 will win 2020, because of the economy.
3.  ISIS will not need to be destroyed because it will have dissipated by then.
4.  Hopefully.
5.  Lakers.


mine:
1.  The average Joe will have a watchphone.
2.  The obesity rate in the US will be lower than it is now.
3.  Guns will be as readily available in the US as they are now.
4.  We will be able to visit Cuba as easily as we visit Mexico.
5.  The Philadelphia Eagles will have a sorry offensive line.


Rivalry between the Blazers and Lakers in 2020

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Crumpets
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« Reply #17 on: July 15, 2016, 08:09:45 PM »

Bump.

Well, nine months later and nobody managed to predict the Brexit or a coup attempt in Turkey. Just goes to show our analytic and predictive skills here.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #18 on: July 17, 2016, 05:02:52 PM »

(In response to RFayette)
1. Agreed, 60% chance of occurring
2. disagree with the point significant 25% chance of happening
3. disagree I think this will become less of an issue 15% chance of happening
4.  disagree on winning it twice, 20% chance of happening
5.  Agree, 55% chance of happening

1. Hillary Clinton will be the first one term President since Bush, loosing by 3 points in her 2020 Re-Election bid.
2. At least 15 states will have passed some version of a death with dignity act.
3. The Supreme Court will have struck down one states 20 week Abortion ban
4. No other countries leave the EU by 2020.
5. At least 25% of the USA Senators on July 17 2020 will  not be currently in the USA senate today.
   
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Computer89
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« Reply #19 on: July 17, 2016, 05:41:32 PM »

1.Agree though i believe she will lose by more then that
2. no
3. no
4. France will leave
5. Yah I agree

Mine:

1. Hillary will lose in a decisive margin in 2020
2. Republicans will have a filibuster proof senate majority after 2020
3. The Supreme court will be liberal
4. The economy will be in a recession
5. Blazers win title that year
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Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #20 on: July 17, 2016, 06:04:07 PM »

1) Highly possible, unless she gets us into a post-colonial, interminable intervention a la Bush II
2) Probably not.
3) IFF HRC Presidency, possible Senate pickup in 2016, yeah.
4) We're due to a certain extent, right? Also subprime car loans and tech startups are bubbles waiting to happen.
5) Don't follow basketball.

1) This is actually a 2018/19 prediction, but the early stages of the GOP Presidential Primary will feature "redeem me and the GOP" shadow-bids from Cruz, Bush, Walker (provided he wins re-elect in 2018), and MAYBE Rubio (but the SOB should really learn his lesson). Cruz and maybe Walker will make it through, JEB! won't attract enough attention to make his bid official. You'll also have a bunch of other people, including Cotton.

2) A hurricane will devastate another major american metro like New Orleans
3) Another scary emergent disease will proliferate (zika, ebola, swine flu, etc)
4) If Clinton doesn't govern with progressives, she'll attract a 2020 primary challenger
5) Dems will regain local seats in 2018 and 2020.
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« Reply #21 on: July 17, 2016, 07:56:23 PM »

1. Somewhat more likely than the alternative.
2. Agreed.
3. Yeah, he'll be too old.
4. Improbable to me. That would require reining in costs, which US colleges have not been capable of doing for decades. The institutional culture is too corrupt and spendthrift.
5. No way that happens. Passing constitutional amendments is unfortunately impossibly hard.

---
1. Erdogan will be the uncontested autocrat of Turkey.
2. A radically leftist Supreme Court will make it more acceptable to question judicial review in the US. Crime begins to rise as the ideology of BLM continues to fester.
3. China will go into recession, dragging all of East Asia into a permanent death spiral.
4. A rising India will behave more aggressively on the world stage, which will probably lead to a lot of negative Western scrutiny of its (geo)politics.
5. The UK and France rise economically as Germany deteriorates in all different kinds of ways. Russia just muddles through (as opposed to collapsing like the West thinks/hopes)
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Wells
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« Reply #22 on: July 17, 2016, 08:50:36 PM »

1) Very likely. Erdogan is terrible. But was the other option any better?
2) The Supreme Court will be more liberal, and conservatives won't be happy about this. I dispute the rise of crime. Efforts relax tensions will hopefully stem this in four years.
3) I can see this happening. I'm not sure about the "permanent" part, though.
4) Isn't India one of our allies, though? And India needs to improve itself (a lot) before they get too active. There's a lot of classism there.
5) If East Asia and Germany are collapsing,the rest of the world will, too. The UK and France aren't coming out unscathed. But Germany won't fall. I seem them slightly improving in most areas (except the crime rate) by 2020. The UK's economy will decline, while France and Russia stay about the same(maybe a small decline).

---

1) The UK will still be part of the EU, constantly putting off the Parliament vote to leave.
2) Hillary Clinton doesn't run for a second term.
3) The unemployment rate will be at least 1% higher than it is now.
4) BLM won't be the only activist group influencing politics in the US.
5) ISIS will have been replaced by another terrorist group, while global terror continues its painstakingly slow decline.
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« Reply #23 on: July 17, 2016, 09:39:16 PM »

1) I doubt it. After a while the Right of the Tory backbenchers will flip if Article 50 isn't triggered. Maybe HoL will block it, but that would probably cause a constitutional crisis.
2) I'm pretty sure she will. The Clinton's enjoy being in power (interestingly I think there is more chance she suffers a Ted Kennedy style insurgent primary challenger than steps down willingly)
3) structural unemployment would probably be higher
4) no sh*t?
5) Isis will continue to inspire, but the actual territory of ISIS will be long gone.

1) Western Europe are trying to leave NATO to form a EuropeAn Army. The Easterners are sceptical.
2) Japan's constitutional amendment rejecting pacifism fails, causing Abe to resign and the LDP to abruptly collapse, leading to yet another doomed Opposition Government.
3) electric cars are as cheap as petrol and diesel cars
4) Duterte is toppled in a coup in the Philippines after being seen as too friendly with the communist rebels and backlash against his hardcore anti-drug policies.
5) a renewed wave of Quebec Nationalism has become popular
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heatcharger
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« Reply #24 on: July 17, 2016, 11:16:44 PM »

1) Very possible multiple countries try to leave NATO, perhaps Turkey, maybe Spain.
2) Don't know anything about Japanese politics.
3) Maybe, something like the Tesla Model S would need to catch on then other companies follow.
4) I wouldn't be surprised if Duterte is dead by 2020, either because of health or some sort of assassination.
5) I doubt it, Liberals won big time in Quebec.

1) A category 4 hurricane hits South Florida causing mass floodings. The effects of climate change will only make that situation worse.
2) Hillary Clinton suffers some sort of health problem, will not run for reelection. VP Kaine, Joe Kennedy III, and Tulsi Gabbard will have a heated primary.
3) Meanwhile, the lunatic wing of the GOP rallies around Alex Jones, does well in the primary but doesn't get to 1237. The delegates choose Ted Cruz on the third ballot.
4) Putin tries to grab more territory in Ukraine. Heavy sanctions are placed on Russia.
5) Increasing automation not only sinks the U.S. manufacturing industry into oblivion, but starts affecting the service industry as well, as waiters are replaced with tablets. A new Neo-Luddite (opposition of new technology) movement arises.
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