OH: Harstad (D): Strickland leading by 3

[Miles]

Article.

Strickland (D) - 46%
Portman (R) - 43%

[ElectionsGuy]

Would take it with a grain of salt at this point.

[windjammer]

Would take it with a grain of salt at this point.

[MT Treasurer]

Strickland & along with CCM and Feingold, is a DEM celebrity and can extend the 272 freiwal to 290 electors. DEMS can definately afford a loss in PA.

[The Other Castro]

Strickland & along with CCM and Feingold, is a DEM celebrity and can extend the 272 freiwal to 290 electors. DEMS can definately afford a loss in PA.

10/10

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No more LR, this is Strickland's race.

[Mr. Illini]

Toss Up

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Strickland & along with CCM and Feingold, is a DEM celebrity and can extend the 272 freiwal to 290 electors. DEMS can definately afford a loss in PA.

10/10

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Validate the Q U polls, all this time people believed Portman was ahead & Toomey was falling behind.

Strickland is a good recruitment.

[Xing]

I still don't get why Portman seems to be struggling so much. Strickland is a good recruit, but Portman's fundraising is quite good, and he's not unpopular. I still consider this race Tilt/Lean R, but I may have to change my mind if Portman is still struggling when the campaign really gets going.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Toomey numbers are a bit surprising to me. But, I expect Dems to do very well in Va or OH to pull Strickland through. It was thought that Clinton was gonna assume to 272 blue wall, but she struggles in CO, so Va or OH can get her to 270

[TJ in Oregon]

This is actually pretty encouraging for Portman. He's closing the gap from older polls and this is a D pollster. A Tossup at present though I still suspect Portman will pull it out in the end.

[Miles]

This is actually pretty encouraging for Portman. He's closing the gap from older polls and this is a D pollster. A Tossup at present though I still suspect Portman will pull it out in the end.

^ Thats what I thought, too, but the Quinnipiac poll out next day had the same result.

[TJ in Oregon]

I still don't get why Portman seems to be struggling so much. Strickland is a good recruit, but Portman's fundraising is quite good, and he's not unpopular. I still consider this race Tilt/Lean R, but I may have to change my mind if Portman is still struggling when the campaign really gets going.

Portman is a boring policy wonk guy who is basically only known as the Republican senator with the gay son. Strickland is far more well-known in Ohio. That's why I think this will slowly pull in Portman's direction over time.

[TJ in Oregon]

This is actually pretty encouraging for Portman. He's closing the gap from older polls and this is a D pollster. A Tossup at present though I still suspect Portman will pull it out in the end.

^ Thats what I thought, too, but the Quinnipiac poll out next day had the same result.

Meh if the D is worth 1 or 2 points it shouldn't be all that surprising to see Quinnipiac have the same result. It's not like they had Strickland up by 10 or something crazy.

[windjammer]

I believe that Portman has a slight advantage. Democrats would need to carry Ohio by 1-2 nationally if they want to beat him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will do very well in OH and Va, even if Hilary is the candidate. Clinton has almost lead in every Va or OH poll. And Strickland has to, and can win Hamilton(Cincinnati ) county, the same county Obama & Brown carried.

[Bismarck]

Portman is from Hamilton county though so he will probably run ahead of the presidential ticket there.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton can afford a loss in OH, as Va is the tipping pt race, but there are conservative counties in SE OH that Strickland is from that is near Va that will allow him to carry the day; as Clinton can take Va, Fairfax county.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Clinton can afford a loss in OH, as Va is the tipping pt race, but there are conservative counties in SE OH that Strickland is from that is near Va that will allow him to carry the day; as Clinton can take Va, Fairfax county.

Strickland significantly outperformed Generic D levels in coal country in 2010 and still lost statewide.

[Torie]

This is actually pretty encouraging for Portman. He's closing the gap from older polls and this is a D pollster. A Tossup at present though I still suspect Portman will pull it out in the end.

Ohio is such an irritating state. Part of that is that protectionism is so popular there. Folks there seem to think that is the magic wand to cope with the global economy, as opposed to a recipe for the US to over time to become a second class nation economically. Someone with Portman's ability and temperament should win easily.  Instead he's struggling against an old man.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton can afford a loss in OH, as Va is the tipping pt race, but there are conservative counties in SE OH that Strickland is from that is near Va that will allow him to carry the day; as Clinton can take Va, Fairfax county.

Strickland significantly outperformed Generic D levels in coal country in 2010 and still lost statewide.

The key was Lucas County. He won Toledo County by a smaller margin than he did in 2006. 60 percent as opposed to 66 percent


That county gave Dubya the victory over John Kerry
 But Strickland will run very well in Toledo besting Clinton.

[TJ in Oregon]

This is actually pretty encouraging for Portman. He's closing the gap from older polls and this is a D pollster. A Tossup at present though I still suspect Portman will pull it out in the end.

Ohio is such an irritating state. Part of that is that protectionism is so popular there. Folks there seem to think that is the magic wand to cope with the global economy, as opposed to a recipe for the US to over time to become a second class nation economically. Someone with Portman's ability and temperament should win easily.  Instead he's struggling against an old man.

Portman isn't struggling because of NAFTA, he's struggling because hardly anyone has much of an opinion of him one way or the other.

True, opposition to free trade would help one's chances in Ohio, but it is not necessarily a requirement to carry the state. In fairness to the protectionist crowd, Ohio probably would benefit by eliminating free trade agreements and imposing tariffs even though the country as a whole would suffer. There are some folks there who believe anti-globalism is something of a magic wand but most are just sick and tired of watching their once middle class communities fall into disrepair. It's something of a desperation sentiment IMO, when what Ohio really needs is to find new industries to locate there.

Strickland is well liked in the coal counties of the SE but not particularly well liked in the NE. Portman should also be a good fit for metro Columbus.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As of now, this race has replaced Pa as top tier pickup. Along with Hassan & Murphy, along with lean takeoverd in IL & WI.

[TJ in Oregon]

As of now, this race has replaced Pa as top tier pickup. Along with Hassan & Murphy, along with lean takeoverd in IL & WI.

The Dems would definitely be wiser trying to go after Portman than Toomey. The latter has established himself far too well and they have a hard time finding an opponent who won't get indicted and who isn't Sestak.