FL/PA/OH polls from Quinnipiac: Trump and Clinton leads

[weixiaobao]

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2015/10/john_kasich_tumbles_to_third_i.html

23 Trump
18 Carson
13 Kasich

Trump led this state for the first time.  Like with Wisconsin since Walker drop out.

[weixiaobao]

Clinton also leading in this state

http://www.news4jax.com/politics/trump-clinton-lead-in-swing-state-polling/35698158

[weixiaobao]

http://www.news4jax.com/politics/trump-clinton-lead-in-swing-state-polling/35698158

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2287

Republicans

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[weixiaobao]

Democrats

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Dem vs GOP

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Edit: I think I mess up by jamming all 6 different polls in this thread.  Should let the mods do it instead.

Anyhow, wow, great news for Trump then.  He led Ohio for the first time.  The last Pennsylvania poll had him tie with Carson, but this poll had him lead Carson by 5 points.  And in Florida, he is greater than Bush + Rubio combined.  

[Mr. Morden]

Florida

Democrats:

Clinton 43%
Biden 19%
Sanders 19%
Chafee, Lessig, O'Malley, Sanders 0%

without Biden:

Clinton 54%
Sanders 23%
Webb 1%
Chafee, Lessig, O'Malley 0%

Republicans:

Trump 28%
Carson 16%
Rubio 14%
Bush 12%
Fiorina 7%
Cruz 6%
Kasich 2%
Paul 2%
Christie 1%
Huckabee 1%
Gilmore, Graham, Jindal, Pataki, Santorum 0%

Ohio

Democrats:

Clinton 40%
Biden 21%
Sanders 19%
Lessig 1%
Chafee, O'Malley, Webb 0%

without Biden:

Clinton 52%
Sanders 26%
Lessig 1%
Webb 1%
Chafee, O'Malley 0%

Republicans:

Trump 23%
Carson 18%
Kasich 13%
Cruz 11%
Fiorina 10%
Rubio 7%
Bush 4%
Paul 3%
Huckabee 2%
Christie 1%
Gilmore, Graham, Jindal, Pataki, Santroum 0%

Pennsylvania

Democrats:

Clinton 36%
Biden 25%
Sanders 19%
Lessig 1%
O'Malley 1%
Webb 1%
Chafee 0%

without Biden:

Clinton 51%
Sanders 25%
Lessig 1%
O'Malley 1%
Webb 1%
Chafee 0%

Republicans:

Trump 23%
Carson 17%
Rubio 12%
Fiorina 8%
Cruz 6%
Christie 5%
Bush 4%
Huckabee 4%
Kasich 3%
Santorum 2%
Jindal 1%
Pataki 1%
Paul 1%
Gilmore, Graham 0%

[Mr. Morden]

Carson leads among white born again Evangelicals in all three states:

Florida:
Carson 23%
Trump 21%
Rubio 17%

Ohio:
Carson 25%
Trump 17%
Cruz 15%

Pennsylvania:
Carson 22%
Trump 19%
Fiorina 9%

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Ohio President by Quinnipiac University on 2015-10-05

Summary:

Trump:	23%
Carson:	18%
Kasich:	13%
Cruz:	11%
Fiorina:	10%
Rubio:	7%
Other:	10%
Undecided:	8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Florida President by Quinnipiac University on 2015-10-05

Summary:

Trump:	28%
Carson:	16%
Rubio:	14%
Bush:	12%
Fiorina:	7%
Cruz:	6%
Other:	6%
Undecided:	11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Quinnipiac University on 2015-10-05

Summary:

Trump:	23%
Carson:	17%
Rubio:	12%
Fiorina:	8%
Cruz:	6%
Other:	21%
Undecided:	13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Ohio President by Quinnipiac University on 2015-10-05

Summary:

Clinton:	40%
Biden:	21%
Sanders:	19%
Other:	4%
Undecided:	16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Florida President by Quinnipiac University on 2015-10-05

Summary:

Clinton:	43%
Biden:	19%
Sanders:	19%
Other:	4%
Undecided:	15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Quinnipiac University on 2015-10-05

Summary:

Clinton:	36%
Biden:	25%
Sanders:	19%
Other:	5%
Undecided:	15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[mencken]

I guess 87% of Kasich's constituents haven't read the Bible.

[King]

Low. Energy. Loser.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

B-but, he won the first debate!

[The Mikado]

New Poll: Ohio President by Quinnipiac University on 2015-10-05

Summary:

Trump:	23%
Carson:	18%
Kasich:	13%
Cruz:	11%
Fiorina:	10%
Rubio:	7%
Other:	10%
Undecided:	8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

So Jeb! is now part of Other?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Fiorina+Rubio=17%

Dominating! Trump can't win this

[Maxwell]

Cruz at 11 in Kasich's home state? Wow, that's a better number than I've seen from him usually.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

New Poll: Ohio President by Quinnipiac University on 2015-10-05

Summary:

Trump:	23%
Carson:	18%
Kasich:	13%
Cruz:	11%
Fiorina:	10%
Rubio:	7%
Other:	10%
Undecided:	8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

So Jeb! is now part of Other?

[socaldem]

Florida

Democrats:

Clinton 43%
Biden 19%
Sanders 19%
Chafee, Lessig, O'Malley, Sanders 0%

without Biden:

Clinton 54%
Sanders 23%
Webb 1%
Chafee, Lessig, O'Malley 0%

Republicans:

Trump 28%
Carson 16%
Rubio 14%
Bush 12%
Fiorina 7%
Cruz 6%
Kasich 2%
Paul 2%
Christie 1%
Huckabee 1%
Gilmore, Graham, Jindal, Pataki, Santorum 0%

Ohio

Democrats:

Clinton 40%
Biden 21%
Sanders 19%
Lessig 1%
Chafee, O'Malley, Webb 0%

without Biden:

Clinton 52%
Sanders 26%
Lessig 1%
Webb 1%
Chafee, O'Malley 0%

Republicans:

Trump 23%
Carson 18%
Kasich 13%
Cruz 11%
Fiorina 10%
Rubio 7%
Bush 4%
Paul 3%
Huckabee 2%
Christie 1%
Gilmore, Graham, Jindal, Pataki, Santroum 0%

Pennsylvania

Democrats:

Clinton 36%
Biden 25%
Sanders 19%
Lessig 1%
O'Malley 1%
Webb 1%
Chafee 0%

without Biden:

Clinton 51%
Sanders 25%
Lessig 1%
O'Malley 1%
Webb 1%
Chafee 0%

Republicans:

Trump 23%
Carson 17%
Rubio 12%
Fiorina 8%
Cruz 6%
Christie 5%
Bush 4%
Huckabee 4%
Kasich 3%
Santorum 2%
Jindal 1%
Pataki 1%
Paul 1%
Gilmore, Graham 0%

How can Rubio be taken seriously if he has under 15% in his home state?

[Kingpoleon]

1,180 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 433 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points and 396 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.

Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

[mencken]

1,180 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 433 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points and 396 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.

Great, so Kasich is actually only statistically tied for second place in his home state! (or fifth place, but let's just gloss over that )

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Is it not good polling practice in 2015 to call cell phones? Is there some reason to believe that there is an enthusiasm gap, and that Kasich supporters will step over broken glass to vote for their messiah, in contrast to such uninspiring candidates like Trump and Carson?