Would Bernie be defeated in a landslide?

[King]

America has become too polarized for a decisive landslide. But I don't think he would win.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Conservative turnout would be through the roof if Sanders wins the nomination.

people don't (generally) turn out against candidates. conservative turnout might be high against sanders if the candidate is donald trump or cruz, but it won't be if the candidate is kasich or ¿yeb?

I don't think people here understand that being a self-proclaimed Socialist will convince almost everyone who is even remotely conservative to rush to the polls.

Because conservatives are the ones having an issue with getting their base to turn out?

I'm including moderately Conservative people here.

[pbrower2a]

This is Bernie Sanders' absolute floor:

GOP: 305 EV's
Sanders: 233 EV's

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is Bernie Sanders' absolute floor:

GOP: 305 EV's
Sanders: 233 EV's

I disagree it's his absolute floor.

[NHI]

This is Bernie Sanders' absolute floor:

GOP: 305 EV's
Sanders: 233 EV's

This map.

[Mr. Illini]

Sanders' absolute minimum floor - 186 EVs

[Adam Griffin]

This is Bernie Sanders' absolute floor:

GOP: 305 EV's
Sanders: 233 EV's

I disagree it's his absolute floor.

Absolutely - it's much higher.

[socaldem]

Bernie Sanders v. Dr. Ben Carson

While Carson has reasonable positive ratings, right now, were he to win the nomination, he is just so far out of the mainstream and has made so many gaffes that he will have a hard time with a lot of voters.

While Sanders is definitely pretty far to the left, his convictions will not be appalling to most Americans. He could have some trouble with suburbanites but they--particularly Northern liberals--will face a tough choice if their other option is Ben Carson.

Sanders, meanwhile, would have broad appeal to working class whites, particularly old labour Democrats in the upper midwest and in ancestrally Democratic rural areas. I think that these ties help him win Ohio, Iowa, Montana, and run up margins in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and New England. I think Florida would be close but Sanders is a better fit for the state than Carson.

I think Carson will get a bump with African-American voters, particularly in the deep South, which will amount to increasing his margins in already GOP states. I think his strengthened support with African-Americans and Sanders' weakness with white (non Northeastern) suburbanites might give Carson the ability to flip Virginia.

[bagelman]

Bernie Sanders v. Dr. Ben Carson

snip

Interesting analysis but anti-keystone Sanders is going to lose Montana and North Dakota. In fact I think the idea of him winning North Dakota is laughable.

[DS0816]

Bernie Sanders v. Dr. Ben Carson

snip

Interesting analysis but anti-keystone Sanders is going to lose Montana and North Dakota. In fact I think the idea of him winning North Dakota is laughable.

Such a tragedy!

[socaldem]

Bernie Sanders v. Dr. Ben Carson

snip

Interesting analysis but anti-keystone Sanders is going to lose Montana and North Dakota. In fact I think the idea of him winning North Dakota is laughable.

Such a tragedy!

Perhaps. But there are commonalities between Sanders socialism and prairie populism.

I thonk Ben Carson running for President is laughable. Divisive tea party insanity doesnt play well in Fargo.

I think sanders would probably also win Colorado in this scenario.

[Taco Truck 🚚]

please. conservative demonisation of sanders literally can't get worse than conservative demonisation of obama, and you can ask president romney where all that high conservative turnout got him.

let's not forget that it was already an article of faith among most conservatives that obama is a socialist.

This is the point that nobody seems to understand. Conservatives have inoculated Sanders against the accusation that he's a socialist. So does the fact that he embraces the term. They call him a socialist, he says, "OK, fine, let's talk about policies," rather than spluttering about arguing over what epithet he should be called.

You guys are 100% correct.  If you ask the average Fox News devotee whether Bill Clinton, Obama, and Carter are socialists they will say yes.  The word "socialist" has been so over used and abused by the far right that it has been drained of its power.  Bernie's rise is a testament to that.

Plus Bernie has something no other viable candidate has... credibility.  When he is on the stump he is the most genuine person out there that has a shot of winning the nomination.

[Higgs]

Bernie Sanders v. Dr. Ben Carson

While Carson has reasonable positive ratings, right now, were he to win the nomination, he is just so far out of the mainstream and has made so many gaffes that he will have a hard time with a lot of voters.

While Sanders is definitely pretty far to the left, his convictions will not be appalling to most Americans. He could have some trouble with suburbanites but they--particularly Northern liberals--will face a tough choice if their other option is Ben Carson.

Sanders, meanwhile, would have broad appeal to working class whites, particularly old labour Democrats in the upper midwest and in ancestrally Democratic rural areas. I think that these ties help him win Ohio, Iowa, Montana, and run up margins in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and New England. I think Florida would be close but Sanders is a better fit for the state than Carson.

I think Carson will get a bump with African-American voters, particularly in the deep South, which will amount to increasing his margins in already GOP states. I think his strengthened support with African-Americans and Sanders' weakness with white (non Northeastern) suburbanites might give Carson the ability to flip Virginia.

Berne wins Nebraska's 1st congressional district, North Dakota, and Montana, but loses Virginia and Colorado? What even is life anymore.

[Mr. Illini]

Bernie Sanders v. Dr. Ben Carson

lol @ Bernie over 60 in Minny

[NeverAgain]

Bernie Sanders v. Dr. Ben Carson

lol @ Bernie over 60 in Minny

That's the thing that's probably the most sensible in this map...

[pbrower2a]

This is Bernie Sanders' absolute floor:

GOP: 305 EV's
Sanders: 233 EV's

I disagree it's his absolute floor.

I took someone else's map and added Wisconsin, where the GOP brand has become toxic. Wisconsin and Iowa usually go together, but they seem not to be going so this time. New Hampshire did go for Dubya in 2000...

[Fuzzy Bear]

GOP Candidate - 297 EV

Bernie - 241 EV

[bobloblaw]

There are no landslides anymore. Landslides of 1964, 72 and 84 happened because swing voters made up 20% at least of the electorate. Today it is no more than 10%. Karl Rove said that George McGovern if he ran in 2004 would do no worse than 47% versus the 38% he got in 1972.

[Liberalrocks]

He would lose everything but Vermont and DC.

Oh it would be a very bad loss for sure however It may not be quite this bad. I think he would lose similiar to how Michael Dukakis lost. In that he would carry something like 10-12 states. He would hold California, New York most of New England and maybe a few other normally solid blue states but still a bad loss well under 200 electoral votes. Polls may say one thing now in terms of competitiveness but I dont see him appealing to anyone in the political center once a campaign started.

[Intell]

He would lose everything but Vermont and DC.

[OSR stands with Israel]

There are no landslides anymore. Landslides of 1964, 72 and 84 happened because swing voters made up 20% at least of the electorate. Today it is no more than 10%. Karl Rove said that George McGovern if he ran in 2004 would do no worse than 47% versus the 38% he got in 1972.

I believe McGovern vs Bush would in 2004 would end like this

Bush 384
McGovern 154

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is Bernie Sanders' absolute floor:

GOP: 305 EV's
Sanders: 233 EV's

I disagree it's his absolute floor.

Absolutely - it's much higher.

No, but this is all hypothetical anyway.

[SillyAmerican]

I honestly don't think Bernie is electable. He lacks charisma, he's old, he's a self-avowed socialist (which, outside of the campus left, doesn't play very well). He's the Ron Paul of the Democratic Party. I think if he's the nominee, you'd see all but the weakest GOP nominee handily defeat him on a scale the size of Obama's 2008 victory if not larger. What do you think?

I believe you're absolutely right. While Mr. Sanders has some interesting ideas, there are far too many capitalists in the room to take him very seriously.

[NeverAgain]

I honestly don't think Bernie is electable. He lacks charisma, he's old, he's a self-avowed socialist (which, outside of the campus left, doesn't play very well). He's the Ron Paul of the Democratic Party. I think if he's the nominee, you'd see all but the weakest GOP nominee handily defeat him on a scale the size of Obama's 2008 victory if not larger. What do you think?

I believe you're absolutely right. While Mr. Sanders has some interesting ideas, there are far too many capitalists in the room to take him very seriously.

And he's going to do what with them? Make Capitalism Illegal? I am a capitalist, and I take him seriously. He wants to protect the middle class, and protect capitalism for the many, not the few.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton was always going to be nominee and Bernie hasnt done anything to take it away from her. Clinton already had establishment dtanding behind her. And except her brief dip in polls in measurable with other GOP.