Fun Fact: PA is Just as Much of a Swing State as OH, IA, or CO

[Ljube]

And you can go back to reading the National Enquirer, hoping that Hillary dies so Republicans have a better chance at winning the election. I'm not going to getting a flame war about Pennsylvania, I'll just bookmark this thread for next year and settle the beef then.

Would you vote for someone who is seriously ill and could be dead in six months?

[DS0816]

This thread is great. Top thread of the week.

That says enough about the lowly quality, overall, of threads nowadays on Atlas Forum.

[Ljube]

This thread is great. Top thread of the week.

That says enough about the lowly quality, overall, of threads nowadays on Atlas Forum.

The Forum Democratic Hive Mind is to blame for this.

[Ebsy]

This thread is great. Top thread of the week.

That says enough about the lowly quality, overall, of threads nowadays on Atlas Forum.

The Forum Democratic Hive Mind is to blame for this.

The main cause is all the objectively awful blue avatars. The centre-left members are much less active than we used to be.

[Torie]

This thread is great. Top thread of the week.

That says enough about the lowly quality, overall, of threads nowadays on Atlas Forum.

The Forum Democratic Hive Mind is to blame for this.

The main cause is all the objectively awful blue avatars. The centre-left members are much less active than we used to be.

That is where the "quality posters" are drawn from?  I feel just so left out.   And then there are all those other non center left posters who often post good stuff, that are apparently just chopped liver too.

Anyway, I think this board has improved myself, but that's just me.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah - but given what you've been posting recently, and its occasionally shrill tone, you would think things have improved.

[Torie]

Yeah - but given what you've been posting recently, and its occasionally shrill tone, you would think things have improved.

Ouch!

[°Leprechaun]

If you are willing to see this as  a plausible scenario, PA is critical. It is not a tossup, but it is obviously a battleground. The 2 electoral vote difference between it and Ohio make a difference. PA= win for D with 270 ...OH only goes D= Republican win with 270 (if FL goes R)

[Torie]

That is perhaps why PA chat gets so contentious.

[MT Treasurer]

If you are willing to see this as  a plausible scenario, PA is critical. It is not a tossup, but it is obviously a battleground. The 2 electoral vote difference between it and Ohio make a difference. PA= win for D with 270 ...OH only goes D= Republican win with 270 (if FL goes R)

Exactly, and hence the Democrats' never-ending insistence that PA is solid D while NH is a pure toss-up.

[TJ in Oregon]

Anyway, I think this board has improved myself, but that's just me.

It's definitely improved over the 2012 iteration in spite of the Trump trolling. This thread was a bit of a catfight, but it did contain a lot of good context. By comparison, the 2012 board about made my eyes bleed any time I ventured here.

In answer to the question, I do think PA is a legitimate swing state and certainly more of one than WI anyway. There is a lot of untapped Pubbie potential in the rural parts and in the SW (as Torie mentioned places like Cambria County--which has a reasonably large number of votes--are not done). There are also a number of places in the rural parts of the north that have coal mining and have yet to vote like WV. They may never end up doing so, but having been there, some of them have a lot more similarities than people think.

The PA polling has been good for the GOP and brutal for the Dems this cycle, which could simply mean the polls are off, but it could also mean that the 2012 reversal of trends in SE PA won't undo itself. It also doesn't help the Dems case that the Dem AG is on her way to getting indicted and unceremoniously booted from office, along with a variety of other partisan scandals. No idea whether that matters at all, but if not it could be skewing the polling. It also remains to be seen what kind of margin Philly gives the Democratic presidential candidate post-Obama.

Any Republican opening in PA is of course contingent on the party giving it a serious attempt rather than a last-minute panic-mode try. I do think the party should invest seriously there.

[Torie]

Following up on what you said TJ, I assume that you have seen this quite interesting article, which asserts that there are a lot of unregistered voters out there in the Pub friendly/trending hinterlands of PA, as compared to say Philly (where the Dems do an outstanding job getting most breathing Dem friendly voters to the polls), and that rather than just dump advertising dollars on the state, what the Pubs really need to do, is what Obama did in 2008 so well - actually change the composition of the electorate so that it moves a bit in the Pub direction. So armies of folks need to wander around Johnstown, or Somerset County, or wherever, and register, register, and register some more - and then get them to the polls.

I noticed the same thing, when messing around with maps in VA over the redistricting lawsuit there (gosh I just love redistricting law - it's so complex, and f'ed up, that it is just gets me really hot and bothered trying to decipher it, and predict it). The turnout in western VA is about 5 points below the turnout in black precincts. Those working class white voters there in the hills and valleys near the TN and KY and WV border, just don't vote in the kind of numbers that suggest any concerted effort to register them and get them to the polls. If the Pubs want to get back in the game more in VA, they need to get those folks registered, and voting! The Dems have done it with their base. The Dems know how to play the game, and work hard on it, while the Pubs sit on their butts, and bore folks to death chatting about their interpretation of the Constitution that SCOTUS has rejected or something.  That is not the way to win elections. Who knew?

[Xing]

Look up the definition of "fact." Pennsylvania could be competitive, but it's absurd to assume that it will be as competitive as OH, IA, and CO. Evidence that PA is trending Republican is mixed at best, and I see no way that it will be critical to the electoral math. If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily. It's certainly not more competitive than FL.

[Sumner 1868]

Look up the definition of "fact." Pennsylvania could be competitive, but it's absurd to assume that it will be as competitive as OH, IA, and CO. Evidence that PA is trending Republican is mixed at best, and I see no way that it will be critical to the electoral math. If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily. It's certainly not more competitive than FL.

PA has a D+1 PVI. It's called a safe blue state.
NH has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
CO has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
IA has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
OH has a R+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.

I know PVI isn't everything, but do you notice something?

I think the perception is largely based around Pennsylvania bordering Democratic strongholds like NY, DE, MD, and NJ.

[MT Treasurer]

Look up the definition of "fact." Pennsylvania could be competitive, but it's absurd to assume that it will be as competitive as OH, IA, and CO. Evidence that PA is trending Republican is mixed at best, and I see no way that it will be critical to the electoral math. If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily. It's certainly not more competitive than FL.

PA has a D+1 PVI. It's called a safe blue state.
NH has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
CO has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
IA has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
OH has a R+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.

I know PVI isn't everything, but do you notice something?

I think the perception is largely based around Pennsylvania bordering Democratic strongholds like NY, DE, MD, and NJ.

Then there's no reason to assume that NH (which borders the most Democratic states in the country) is a Toss-up either (which I don't think it is, btw).

[Torie]

Look up the definition of "fact." Pennsylvania could be competitive, but it's absurd to assume that it will be as competitive as OH, IA, and CO. Evidence that PA is trending Republican is mixed at best, and I see no way that it will be critical to the electoral math. If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily. It's certainly not more competitive than FL.

PA has a D+1 PVI. It's called a safe blue state.
NH has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
CO has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
IA has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
OH has a R+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.

I know PVI isn't everything, but do you notice something?

I think the perception is largely based around Pennsylvania bordering Democratic strongholds like NY, DE, MD, and NJ.

Then there's no reason to assume that NH (which borders the most Democratic states in the country) is a Toss-up either (which I don't think it is, btw).

I do find it rather odd however, that you have such a different attitude towards NH vis a vis PA. I mean NH trended to the Pubs too in 2012, albeit by not as much as PA did. I tend to agree that perhaps PA has more potential for the Pubs than NH, but that is based on untapped potential as discussed above, that needs to be tapped to make a difference, and given the chaos in the Pub party at the moment, they might not be focused enough to do what needs to be done (maybe team Toomey will help do some of it for them himself).

The other big unknown, as TJ suggests, is turnout, and particularly black turnout, in Philly. Another aspect, is that it is conceivable, that blacks vis a vis the nation will trend a bit Pub in 2016. If so, that pushes PA a bit towards the Pubs relatively speaking, in a way that does not obtain in NH, which of course has few blacks. Mittens himself I read someone got 12% of the young black male vote. If that continues, and the young male blacks who jumped the Dem ship in 2012 keep voting Pub, that cohort as a percentage of the black population, will expand as time goes on. So many speculations, so little time.

[Ljube]

Look up the definition of "fact." Pennsylvania could be competitive, but it's absurd to assume that it will be as competitive as OH, IA, and CO. Evidence that PA is trending Republican is mixed at best, and I see no way that it will be critical to the electoral math. If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily. It's certainly not more competitive than FL.

PA has a D+1 PVI. It's called a safe blue state.
NH has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
CO has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
IA has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
OH has a R+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.

I know PVI isn't everything, but do you notice something?

I think the perception is largely based around Pennsylvania bordering Democratic strongholds like NY, DE, MD, and NJ.

Then there's no reason to assume that NH (which borders the most Democratic states in the country) is a Toss-up either (which I don't think it is, btw).

I do find it rather odd however, that you have such a different attitude towards NH vis a vis PA. I mean NH trended to the Pubs too in 2012, albeit by not as much as PA did. I tend to agree that perhaps PA has more potential for the Pubs than NH, but that is based on untapped potential as discussed above, that needs to be tapped to make a difference, and given the chaos in the Pub party at the moment, they might not be focused enough to do what needs to be done (maybe team Toomey will help do some of it for them himself).

The other big unknown, as TJ suggests, is turnout, and particularly black turnout, in Philly. Another aspect, is that it is conceivable, that blacks vis a vis the nation will trend a bit Pub in 2016. If so, that pushes PA a bit towards the Pubs relatively speaking, in a way that does not obtain in NH, which of course has few blacks. Mittens himself I read someone got 12% of the young black male vote. If that continues, and the young male blacks who jumped the Dem ship in 2012 keep voting Pub, that cohort as a percentage of the black population, will expand as time goes on. So many speculations, so little time.

Yes, but what about the next election? Will the Pubs win enough blacks (10-12%)? Will the white working class continue its gradual drift away from Dems and toward Pubs (Pittsburgh)? Will Philly burbs come back home? Will the coal country start voting like West Virginia?

It seems to me that all these things must happen before Pubs manage to squeak out a win in PA.

[Torie]

Well, the first step is for the Pub to get close to 50% of the national vote. Unless PA trends Dem, that closes most of the gap as PA swings with the nation. The remaining 1% gap or so, then gets down to the host of factors you mentioned, as well as closing the turnout gap in places where the Pubs have upside potential arguably. A little bit of this, a little bit of that, or a lot of one thing. If Pubs suck wind even more than usual with the Hispanic vote in 2016 (think Trump as the nominee heaven forbid), that would tend to push the PVI to the Pubs in PA all by itself, I might add, which is light on Hispanics.

[eric82oslo]

Look up the definition of "fact." Pennsylvania could be competitive, but it's absurd to assume that it will be as competitive as OH, IA, and CO. Evidence that PA is trending Republican is mixed at best, and I see no way that it will be critical to the electoral math. If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily. It's certainly not more competitive than FL.

PA has a D+1 PVI. It's called a safe blue state.
NH has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
CO has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
IA has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
OH has a R+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.

I know PVI isn't everything, but do you notice something?

If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily.

How? The next time a Republican wins the presidency, PA will flip. PA and VA (and perhaps CO as well) are the ultimate bellwether states in 2016.

Only if you're Nate Silver you would call Pennsylvania a safe blue state, cause he believes that New Hampshire is the only state that really swings and that Pennsylvania is the most inelastic state in the nation. Lol, I'm just kidding, actually, as the extreme statistical nerd that I am, I adore Nate Silver and is probably his biggest fan.

Now of course Pennsylvania is as close as a state not named Virginia could come to being a pure toss up. And that's my 100% objective view. Take it for what it is. Ohio leans Republican, Florida will soon lean Democratic, so will Virginia. Iowa is starting to lean Republican. God knows about Colorado. Not knowing about Colorado's future, one can safely say that Pennsylvania will be the last state standing. The real toss up state in the end. Hadn't it been for the fact that Obama is so universially hated in the state outside of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and that Hillary is equally loved there.

[MT Treasurer]

I do find it rather odd however, that you have such a different attitude towards NH vis a vis PA. I mean NH trended to the Pubs too in 2012, albeit by not as much as PA did. I tend to agree that perhaps PA has more potential for the Pubs than NH, but that is based on untapped potential as discussed above, that needs to be tapped to make a difference, and given the chaos in the Pub party at the moment, they might not be focused enough to do what needs to be done (maybe team Toomey will help do some of it for them himself).

What matters is the long-term trend. And even you have admitted that NH is gone.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164324.0

NH is a cruel state, isn't it? Always threatening to go to the GOP, but it never materializes. Perhaps its residents are lying to the pollsters to trick the GOP into wasting its money there?

[Torie]

I do find it rather odd however, that you have such a different attitude towards NH vis a vis PA. I mean NH trended to the Pubs too in 2012, albeit by not as much as PA did. I tend to agree that perhaps PA has more potential for the Pubs than NH, but that is based on untapped potential as discussed above, that needs to be tapped to make a difference, and given the chaos in the Pub party at the moment, they might not be focused enough to do what needs to be done (maybe team Toomey will help do some of it for them himself).

What matters is the long-term trend. And even you have admitted that NH is gone.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164324.0

NH is a cruel state, isn't it? Always threatening to go to the GOP, but it never materializes. Perhaps its residents are lying to the pollsters to trick the GOP into wasting its money there?

Gosh, I quite like my prose there.   Anyway, since I wrote it, NH trended Pub in 2012 by about 40 basis points, so the progress of the green revolution in NH was held at bay some for that election. But yes, I agree, that given the current brand images of the two parties, the long term prospects for the Pubs in NH are not too good. They need to become a bit more, well "Torie-like," to reverse that, but then of course, places like Georgia might go down the drain. It's never easy to find the perfect objective function to electoral success, given how disputatious and divided into little factions, the Fruited Plain is these days.

[Ljube]

I do find it rather odd however, that you have such a different attitude towards NH vis a vis PA. I mean NH trended to the Pubs too in 2012, albeit by not as much as PA did. I tend to agree that perhaps PA has more potential for the Pubs than NH, but that is based on untapped potential as discussed above, that needs to be tapped to make a difference, and given the chaos in the Pub party at the moment, they might not be focused enough to do what needs to be done (maybe team Toomey will help do some of it for them himself).

What matters is the long-term trend. And even you have admitted that NH is gone.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164324.0

NH is a cruel state, isn't it? Always threatening to go to the GOP, but it never materializes. Perhaps its residents are lying to the pollsters to trick the GOP into wasting its money there?

Gosh, I quite like my prose there.  Anyway, since I wrote it, NH trended Pub in 2012 by about 40 basis points, so the progress of the green revolution in NH was held at bay some for that election. But yes, I agree, that given the current brand images of the two parties, the long term prospects for the Pubs in NH are not too good. They need to become a bit more, well "Torie-like," to reverse that, but then of course, places like Georgia might go down the drain. It's never easy to find the perfect objective function to electoral success, given how disputatious and divided into little factions, the Fruited Plain is these days.

That thread was the best autopsy of 2012 election. Still valid.

I just noticed that I sort of predicted Trump there (an anti-immigration populist).

[Xing]

Look up the definition of "fact." Pennsylvania could be competitive, but it's absurd to assume that it will be as competitive as OH, IA, and CO. Evidence that PA is trending Republican is mixed at best, and I see no way that it will be critical to the electoral math. If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily. It's certainly not more competitive than FL.

PA has a D+1 PVI. It's called a safe blue state.
NH has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
CO has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
IA has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
OH has a R+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.

I know PVI isn't everything, but do you notice something?

If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily.

How? The next time a Republican wins the presidency, PA will flip. PA and VA (and perhaps CO as well) are the ultimate bellwether states in 2016.

I don't think anyone except the biggest Democratic hacks consider PA a "safe blue state." I would call it a Lean D state, as it's less elastic than states like CO, IA, and NH, and I would expect at least the first two to go Republican before PA. The PVI of one election is not the be-all, end-all. Consider this:

CO: Obama +5.4, rated toss-up
VA: Obama +3.9, rated toss-up
OH: Obama +3, rated toss-up
NC: Romney +2, rated Lean/Likely R

I'm aware that Obama won the popular vote fairly easily, but why should we assume the popular vote will be a tie?

Just because PA almost ended up being the tipping point state in 2012 doesn't mean that it will be in 2016. As I said, it's not safe for the Democrats, but in an extremely close election (think 2000), I'm 99% confident that it will go Democratic.

[Torie]

Look up the definition of "fact." Pennsylvania could be competitive, but it's absurd to assume that it will be as competitive as OH, IA, and CO. Evidence that PA is trending Republican is mixed at best, and I see no way that it will be critical to the electoral math. If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily. It's certainly not more competitive than FL.

PA has a D+1 PVI. It's called a safe blue state.
NH has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
CO has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
IA has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
OH has a R+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.

I know PVI isn't everything, but do you notice something?

If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily.

How? The next time a Republican wins the presidency, PA will flip. PA and VA (and perhaps CO as well) are the ultimate bellwether states in 2016.

I don't think anyone except the biggest Democratic hacks consider PA a "safe blue state." I would call it a Lean D state, as it's less elastic than states like CO, IA, and NH, and I would expect at least the first two to go Republican before PA. The PVI of one election is not the be-all, end-all. Consider this:

CO: Obama +5.4, rated toss-up
VA: Obama +3.9, rated toss-up
OH: Obama +3, rated toss-up
NC: Romney +2, rated Lean/Likely R

I'm aware that Obama won the popular vote fairly easily, but why should we assume the popular vote will be a tie?

Just because PA almost ended up being the tipping point state in 2012 doesn't mean that it will be in 2016. As I said, it's not safe for the Democrats, but in an extremely close election (think 2000), I'm 99% confident that it will go Democratic.

You wrote a lot of words that ended up stating that you are 99% certain that PA will have a Dem PVI, without really saying why. What I have been saying, is that it is foolish really to have much certainty one way or the other as to whether PA will have a Dem PVI. Sure, odds are that it will, but the odds are hardly anywhere near 99%. Maybe 60% or 65% seems more like it to me.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Dems lose either NH or Pa its over. Bob Casey Jr who is beloved by Pa voters and Rendell who is Jewish, along with Castro who is Catholic will rescue Clinton in Pa.