Fun Fact: PA is Just as Much of a Swing State as OH, IA, or CO

[eric82oslo]

Should this be a surprise? I've said this for years. Pennsylvania is probably among the 2-3 most important battleground states at this point in time, due to its (Republican) trendline, its massive amount of EVs and the fact that it has been shockingly close to being the tipping point state in the last two elections. Also the fact obviously that a big chunk of the state is basically like West Virginia, inhabited by lots of Amish people and other religious nuts. Also, Pennsylvania has among the slowest growth rates when it comes to latinos and other minority groups, probably due to a very slow economic growth rate which has lead to another very slow demographic growth rate. This very slow rise in its minority population is probably why its seen its political impact trend Republican for the past decade. In states like Florida, Virginia, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas however, the minority population is skyrocketing and has been for a really long while now.

[eric82oslo]

I was talking about PVI.  It amazes me how many people fail to understand the concept of PVI (and also that how the state voted in 1992 is irrelevant now).

True. If I'm not absolutely mistaken, then Colorado and Pennsylvania were both tied for being the closest tipping point state in 2012. How anyone can call that 100% Democratic is beyond me. Colorado is drifting rapidly towards Democrats and already is more Democratic than the nation, while Pennsylvania is drifting the other way, how come then that Colorado is extremely volatile while Pennsylvania is a safe Democratic state. It just doesn't make any sense.

[eric82oslo]

We've seen Pennsylvania's PVI trend rightward before, it really doesn't mean as much as people here are making it out to be.

In fact PA's PVI has shifted rightward three times over the last 50 years and it hasn't crossed the threshold once.

It seems like the main reason it goes right is that the NATION's vote shifts to the left faster than PA does.     It would explain why the nominal vote totals in PA have favored Democrats in the last few elections (2004 vs 2012) despite the PVI moving away from the Dems.

It doesn't matter much whether it leans Republican or Democratic. What matters is if its close to being the tipping point or not. It's the Electoral College that matters, not the popular vote. And right now Pennsylvania might very well be the single closest state to being the tipping point, just like it was the second closest in 2012. Now certain candidates of course have much more working class credential than other candidates - and as Pennsylvania is probably among the 10 most working class of states in the US, that matters a lot. Among those who have a lot of working class cred I think we find Sanders, Clinton, Trump, Santorum, Huckabee and probably Jim Webb as well. All of these candidates should perform better in Pennsylvania relative to other candidates. Obama was a typical candidate that had very little, if any, working class appeal, and that might explain the rightward trend of the state in the last two elections. Soon enough we'll get the answer to that.

[eric82oslo]

Look up the definition of "fact." Pennsylvania could be competitive, but it's absurd to assume that it will be as competitive as OH, IA, and CO. Evidence that PA is trending Republican is mixed at best, and I see no way that it will be critical to the electoral math. If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily. It's certainly not more competitive than FL.

PA has a D+1 PVI. It's called a safe blue state.
NH has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
CO has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
IA has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
OH has a R+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.

I know PVI isn't everything, but do you notice something?

If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily.

How? The next time a Republican wins the presidency, PA will flip. PA and VA (and perhaps CO as well) are the ultimate bellwether states in 2016.

Only if you're Nate Silver you would call Pennsylvania a safe blue state, cause he believes that New Hampshire is the only state that really swings and that Pennsylvania is the most inelastic state in the nation. Lol, I'm just kidding, actually, as the extreme statistical nerd that I am, I adore Nate Silver and is probably his biggest fan.

Now of course Pennsylvania is as close as a state not named Virginia could come to being a pure toss up. And that's my 100% objective view. Take it for what it is. Ohio leans Republican, Florida will soon lean Democratic, so will Virginia. Iowa is starting to lean Republican. God knows about Colorado. Not knowing about Colorado's future, one can safely say that Pennsylvania will be the last state standing. The real toss up state in the end. Hadn't it been for the fact that Obama is so universially hated in the state outside of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and that Hillary is equally loved there.