Who will lead the outparty 2020 prez nomination polls in 9 months?

[Mr. Morden]

18 months from now—April 2017, who’ll be leading the early national polls for the 2020 party nomination for president…of whichever party is not in the White House at the time?  That is, if you think a Democrat will win the presidency next year, then who’ll be leading the early polls for the 2020 Republican nomination?  And if you think a Republican will be in the White House, then who’ll lead the early polls for the 2020 Democratic nomination?

[Blue3]

Warren (which still won't happen)

Rubio


And possibly the losing VP nominee.

[Mr. Morden]

Warren looks like the obvious choice on the Dem. side.  Though I wonder will the pollsters include Sanders?  And how will he fair relative to Warren?  Gillibrand/Klobuchar might be realistic contenders for the nomination, but I don’t see how they get enough name recognition to be doing anything in the polls as early as 2017.

Rubio’s an obvious choice on the GOP side, but what if he’s the 2016 nominee?  The pollsters will count on him to pull an Adlai Stevenson, and run again?

I’m actually really not sure who would be listed in the GOP polls.  Like I said in the other 2020 thread, I think folks like Cotton, Haley, Pence, and Snyder might have a chance, but they all start with low name rec., so they’re not going to be leading any polls as early as 2017.

So who then?  I’m assuming that people will assume that Bush won’t try again?  What about Trump, Carson, etc.?

Paul Ryan is an interesting possibility.  Especially if he does become Speaker of the House in the interim.  He’d get his name out there again, and it’d surely fuel 2020 presidential buzz.

Also, yes, the losing VP nominee, whoever that may be, is another possibility.

[Kingpoleon]

Democratic: Cory Booker/Andrew Cuomo

Republican: Marco Rubio/Paul Ryan

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

kanye west, obviously.

[Blue3]

Imagine if Biden is President and Paul Ryan is Speaker...

[Mr. Morden]

Since it looks like Ryan will become House Speaker, I'm going to say that this makes it more likely that he'll be leading early polls for the 2020 GOP nomination taken just over a year from now.  It's just a function of the fact that his name will be in the news more often, and early polls are largely a function of name recognition + media attention.

But it also conceivably makes it less likely that he'll actually run, since House Speakers usually don't stay popular for very long.  By 2019, he'll be damaged goods.

[TarHeelDem]

Ryan, maybe Rubio or Cruz if they're not the 2016 loser.

[eric82oslo]

My prediction is Rubio, although Christie and Ryan will probably poll fairly strongly as well. Perhaps even Romney will.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Democrats:
Whoever Hillary's running mate is, Elizabeth Warren, Andrew Cuomo

Republicans:
Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul/Justin Amash, Scott Walker

[Making America Great Again]

Trump will be up for reelection hopefully. Democrats will run some loser like Kanye.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton will win reelection in 2020 over Gov Rubio of FL.

[Del Tachi]

Clinton will win reelection in 2020 over Gov Rubio of FL.

If Rubio goes for FL-GOV in 2018, I'd take it as an indication that he's less likely to run for President in 2020.

He'd already have a high-enough profile after running in 2016 to justify a run in 2020, taking-on being governor of the 3rd largest state would detract from his ability to be fully committed to the presidential campaign trail.  Plus, there would be significant overlap (and thus redundancy and inefficiency) preparing for a gubernatorial run in 2018 AND a presidential run in 2020.

Plus, incumbent Presidents are hard to beat.  Rubio would more than likely be angling for a run in '24 or '28 if he's going for the governorship in 2018. 

[TarHeelDem]

Very possible Rubio and Ryan both wait until 2024, in which case the GOP is screwed in 2020.

[MATTROSE94]

Trump will be up for reelection hopefully. Democrats will run some loser like Kanye.

That would be the only scenario where I would actually support Donald Trump. Kanye West is an a**hole, horrible musician, and probably the most inexperienced person who would ever win the Democratic nomination. The funny thing is that Kanye would still receive around 150 Electoral Votes in spite of his flaws.

[bagelman]

Democrats:
Whoever Hillary's running mate is, Elizabeth Warren, Andrew Cuomo

Republicans:
Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul/Justin Amash, Scott Walker

Why him?

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

OK, what about 9 months from now, meaning March 2017?  Who'll be leading the early 2020 primary polls of whichever party isn't in the White House?

[LLR]

Dems: VP Candidate Xavier Becerra: 26%
Amy Klobuchar: 18%
Cory Booker: 16%

GOPs: Paul Ryan 21%
Nikki Haley 15%
Ted Cruz 15%

[Senator-elect Spark]

Democratic: Warren, Cuomo
Republican: Cruz, Walker, Rubio, Cotton

[Kingpoleon]

Republican:
Gingrich
Cruz

Democratic:
Elizabeth Warren
Bernie Sanders

At that point, it will just be a contest of name recognition.

[Mr. Morden]

Democratic: Warren, Cuomo
Republican: Cruz, Walker, Rubio, Cotton

Cotton will presumably be in low/mid-single digits in the polls next year, since no one knows who he is.  (Unless Trump picks him for VP.)

[Mr. Morden]

Now that we're getting close to the veep announcements....is there any chance that a Chris Christie or a Mike Pence, if one of them was picked to be Trump's running mate, could ride that experience to a strong showing in the early 2020 primary polls?  Or is running as Trump's VP a recipe for disaster that'll mire Christie or Pence or whoever in single digits, while Ryan and Cruz (or someone else) takes the early '20 GOP nomination polling lead?

[UWS]

If Marco Rubio wins re-election to the U.S. Senate, which would not surprise me, he will likely lead the 2020 Republican Presidential nomination polls in a few months. You know, in recent history, many politicians boosted their polling standing after winning re-election : it's George W. Bush's case after his re-election as Texas Governor on November 3rd 1998 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2000#Polling) and Chris Christie's case after his re-election as New Jersey Governor on November 5th 2013 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_2016_presidential_primaries).

In addition, after Trump loses badly to Hillary Clinton, Republicans are likely to rebuke Trump's ideas and tell themselvelves : « if a candidate, like Rubio, able to attract minority voters, especially Hispanics, was the nominee this year, we probably would not have been in this situation. »

[Pragmatic Conservative]

 something like this.

Paul Ryan 25%
Ted Cruz 20%
Scott Walker 12%
Ben Sasse 11%
Tom Cotton 9%
Chris Christie 5%
Undecided 18%

Cotton is lower because lack of name recognition, Ryan because of hirer name rec.  is at the top of the polls. Sasse gets a good amount of support among former never trump supporters. I am assuming Christie is picked as Trumps running mate, so he is at 5%.