VPH's What If Corner

[VPH]

Welcome to my mini-TL/what if corner. These are things that I felt might be too extensive for the random maps section, so I'm going to dedicate a space for them.

American Coalitions
E=economy S=social F=FoPo
FL: Far left LW: Left wing CL: Center left C: Center V: Varied CR: Center right RW: Right wing FR: Far right

Alliance of Democrats
Progressive Party- E: CL-LW S: LW F=Internationalist
Your generic catch left of center all party, the Progressives espouse a variety of viewpoints. They are the largest party in the country and generally are pragmatic on foreign policy and some economic issues. The Progressives have very broad support among women, immigrants, and many other groups.
Liberal Center- E: C S: CL F=Internationalist
The Liberal Center represents classical liberals and centrists who found themselves disaffected with other parties. They tend to run strong among the young upper middle class, liberal suburban voters, and small business owners.
People's- E: CL-LW S: CR F=Protectionist and wary of intervention
Probably the weakest link of the coalition, this party enjoys strength in economically depressed manufacturing and mining towns. They have always been strong union champions, but tend to be more culturally conservative than their coalition partners. Some say they could become non-aligned soon.


Right Coalition
Conservative Party- E: CR S: CR F=Interventionist
This is the generic big tent center right party. Historically the party of the free market and upper classes, they have reached out in recent years to minority voters and women, although they still struggle among these demographics. This part espouses a variety of viewpoints but most notably stands for a moderate strain of conservatism.
Country Party- E: RW S: RW F=Varied
The Country Party runs a more right-wing line and enjoys a large base of rural support. They have been heavy proponents of rural programs but are wary of government intervention in the economy. Socially they advocate for laws based on Christianity. However, they’re liberal on immigration issues.
National Bloc- E: CR S: FR F=Isolationist
The National Bloc, home to paleoconservatives, has been accused of xenophobia. They remain the farthest right of this coalition, and continue to grow in support due to increasing backlash to immigration. Their appeals to populism have to some extent dug into support for the People’s Party. They continue to grow among blue collar white voters.


American Left
United Left- E: LW S: LW F=Wary of foreign entanglements
This party, the bastion of many Socialists, was considered a potential progressive coalition partner. However, the Progressives' recent move to the center was offputting to this party, which decided to stay out of the government. This party emphasizes economic reforms such as single payer healthcare and ending corporate subsidies. Support for the United Left can be found among aging anti-war voters, city dwellers, and some Northeastern rural voters.
Green Party- E: LW S: FL F=Isolationist
The Greens are college campus liberals who on social issues are just about as left as one can get. Mainly the party of youth, they rack up great numbers on campuses and on the west coast. Their online presence is very high.
US Communist Party- E: FL S: LW F=Varied
A dwindling and small party, the Communists represent a long legacy. They generally don't do well in elections, but still have small pockets of support in some rural areas and minority communities. The highest currently elected Communist is a school board member hailing from a small town in Wisconsin.

Group for Liberties
Freedom Party- E: RW S: LW F=Isolationist
The major Libertarian outfit draws in typically white middle class males. They run against big government and have found some success in the West, where voters are most receptive to their message. They call for cutting social programs, slashing regulations, and increasing personal freedom.
Cyber Party- E: CR S: CL F=Isolationist
This party advocates E-democracy, removal of market entry barriers, and a technocratic government with less red tape. While they tend to be somewhat centrist, their focus on slimmer government puts them in this group. Their support is somewhat strong in high-tech areas and wealthy suburbs.
Reformist Greens- E: CR S: LW F=Varied
A smaller party, this offshoot of the Greens attracts upper middle class pro-environment voters who lean conservative on other issues. Generally, one can find RG supporters in the suburbs and in some western communities.

Nonaligned
Raza Unida- E: LW S: LW F=Multilateralist Pragmatists
This party is a mostly cultural party with support among Hispanics. It fights against xenophobia, for nationwide bilingualism, and for more open immigration policy. Support is high in majority-Hispanic counties.
Black National Bloc- E: LW S: FL F=Isolationist
This party, founded by left wing Black Power supporters in the 1970’s, fights for leftist economic causes and the dismantling of racist systems. They work towards a complete overhaul of government as we know it in order to be fairer to all groups.
Southern Heritage Party- E: CR S: FR F=Varied
This party has links to white nationalists and does not shy away from confederate and racist imagery. While they used to be a stronger voting bloc, the SHP still has some pockets of strength in Southern communities and has elected a number of state legislators recently.
Silver Party- E: CL S: CR F=Varied
The Silver Party is a one issue outfit meant to advocate for the rights of the elderly. Its support is confined mostly to older communities such as retirement cities in Florida. In fact, the Silver Party has elected a number of city council members in said cities.
Party for Liberation from Capitalism- E: FL S: FL F=Isolationist
This party, led by a group of young anarcho-communists, was founded during the Great Recession as an offshoot of the Occupy movement. With no elected officials, its strength is limited.

[Classic Conservative]

I'd either be in the Freedom Party, National Bloc.

[Intell]

Would be either People's first then United Left or when the united left has a horrible candidate progressive.

In Order

1. People's
2. United Left
3. Progressive
4. Liberal Center
5. Green Party
6. Cyber Party
7. Reformist Greens
8. Raza Unida
9. Black National Bloc
10. Silver Party
11. Conservative Party
12. US Communist Party
13. Country Party ( I think they'd be centrist or center-right on economics for they favor farm and agricultural programs.
14. Freedom Party
15. Party for Liberation from Capitalism
13. National Bloc (Normally these far right groups tend to be centrist to leftist on economic issues)
16. Southern Heritage Party

Dark Green- Great
Light Green- Good Enough
Orange- Meh'
Red- Pretty Bad
Brown- Horrible
Black- Kill me Now

[Kingpoleon]

1. Liberal Center
2. Freedom Party
3. Raza Unida
4. Reformist Greens

I hate the Liberal Center's foreign policy isn't Pragmatics.

[VPH]

Fixed some of those. I'm making a presidential election map, and then my goal is to fill in a house map.

[VPH]

This is round 1 of an election.
40% Red=Progressive
40% Blue=Conservative
50% Orange=Populist
20% Orange=Country
70% Blue=National
20% Red=Freedom
80% Red=United Left
50% Green=Green

Remember that this is an alternate US and is quite unlike irl US in many regards.

Round 2

Progressive Party-55%
Conservative Party-45%
Some states that had high Libertarian amounts swung left due to lower voter turnout.

[VPH]

Here's the congressional map pertaining to the party system I outlined.

[bagelman]

Looks like statewide politics in Ohio is dominated by the populists and the conservatives. Are things in the state significantly different than OTL?

[VPH]

Kansas-A Radically Different 2014

Wichita Eagle-2014 Primary Rundown
This year, on primary election night, Kansas in both parties have many choices to make. We decided to compile a list of the major primary races occurring with a rundown of each race.

Governor
GOP: Governor Sam Brownback has come under fire from members of his own party due to his hardball politics, economic policies, and social stances. He competes against former State Senator Wint Winter Jr. (Lawrence), who decries Brownback as an 'extremist out of touch with Kansas values'. This race will likely be filled with money and invective, especially on the part of Brownback, who is already accusing Winter of being a RINO.
Democratic Party: State House Minority Leader and attorney Paul Davis (Lawrence) faces no opposition.

US Senate
GOP: Incumbent Senator Pat Roberts (Topeka) will face off against Dr. Milton Wolf (Johnson County) and landscaper Jennifer Winn (Wichita). Wolf is running to the right, attacking Roberts as a centrist and ally of Obama. However, Wolf's personal life may come into question. Winn's populist, low-budget campaign paints Roberts and Wolf as extremist right wingers. The real question is how much Winn will harm Pat Roberts in this election.
Democratic Party: Former State Treasurer and Minority Leader Dennis McKinney (Greensburg) is running against Topeka District Attorney Chad Taylor and Former State Senator Donald Betts (Wichita).
Independent: Businessman Greg Orman (Olathe) has filed to run in the general election.

Secretary of State
GOP: Incumbent Kris Kobach (Overland Park) is being challenged by lawyer and businessman Scott Morgan (Shawnee).
Democratic Party:Former Republican State Senator Jean Schodorf (Wichita) is unopposed.

Attorney General
GOP: Current AG Derek Schmidt is unopposed.
Democratic Party: Lawyer AJ Kotich (Topeka) is running against former Sedgwick County District Attorney Nola Foulston (Wichita).

Treasurer: No primary races

Insurance Commissioner
GOP: Accountant Ken Selzer (Fairway) is running against former Kansas Secretary of Labor Karin Brownlee (Olathe).
Democratic Party: Businessman Dennis Anderson is facing former Salina Mayor Alan Jilka.

1st District
GOP: Incumbent Rep. Tim Huelskamp is mainly being challenged by superintendent, farmer, and war veteran Alan LaPolice (Clyde). LaPolice is attacking Huelskamp as too extreme for Kansas and highlighting how he was kicked off the agriculture committee. Alvin Zahnter (Russell), a Vietnam Vet and activist is also running, albeit even more to Huelskamp's right.
Democratic Party: Former Representative and Kansas Ag. Secretary Joshua Svaty (Ellsworth) is unopposed.

2nd District
GOP: US Rep. Lynn Jenkins faces a particularly tough challenge from her right from State Senator Forrest Knox (Altoona) and also computer analyst Joshua Tucker (Independence).
Democratic Party: Attorney Margie Wakefield (Lawrence) is running unopposed.

3rd District
GOP: US Rep. Kevin Yoder is running unopposed.
Democratic Party: Former Kansas City Mayor Joe Reardon is running against Reggie Marselus (Kansas City), a local union activist.

4th District
GOP: US Rep. Mike Pompeo (Wichita) is facing a stiff challenge from former Rep. Todd Tiahrt (Wichita). This battle will likely get dirty and will be waged over issues involving manufacturing, agriculture, and special interests.
Democratic Party: Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer is unopposed.

[VPH]

Looks like statewide politics in Ohio is dominated by the populists and the conservatives. Are things in the state significantly different than OTL?

Ohio has remained pretty moderate, but center right leaning in many rural areas. However, the southern and more Appalachian counties held onto more left-leaning economics like in West Virginia and Kentucky.

[VPH]

Kansas-A Radically Different 2014

Official Primary Election Results

1st District GOP
Alan LaPolice-47.7%
Tim Huelskamp-45.4%
Al Zahnter-6.9%

2nd District GOP
Lynn Jenkins-54.1%
Forrest Knox-36.4%
Joshua Tucker-9.5%

3rd District DEM
Joe Reardon-82.9%
Reggie Marselus-17.1%

4th District GOP
Mike Pompeo-53.7%
Todd Tiahrt-46.3%

Insurance Comm. GOP
Karin Brownlee-56.1%
Ken Selzer-43.9%

Insurance Comm. DEM
Dennis Anderson-61.5%
Alan Jilka-38.5%

AG DEM
Nola Foulston-71.2%
AJ Kotich-28.8%

[VPH]

BREAKING: Congressional Race Analysis

KS-1 GOP

Alan LaPolice vs Tim Huelskamp
In a stunning upset, low-budget challenger Alan LaPolice profited from the endorsement of key agricultural organizations and the endorsements of many moderate Republican figures in the district. Huelskamp's extremism and poor campaigning bit him. Although polls showed a tight race between both candidates, Huelskamp struggled to reach out to voters. Moreover, Al Zahnter took a slim part of the vote, which proved enough to deny Huelskamp the nomination. It's insane to believe that a candidate ran to the right of Huelskamp, one of congress' most radical members. This is a lock for the GOP. Safe Republican.
KS-2 GOP

Lynn Jenkins vs Forrest Knox vs Josh Tucker
Thanks to a split conservative vote, Lynn Jenkins held onto her seat. Knox did best near his district, and Tucker exceeded 20% in the city of Pittsburgh, KS. Jenkins faced attacks on her murky stance on abortion, which damaged her. Due to the vitriol of this race, the hardliner conservative factions may be wary to back Jenkins, with some beginning to call for an independent bid. We're keeping this race at Likely Republican, but may change it to Lean Republican depending on what happens.

KS-4 GOP

Mike Pompeo vs Todd Tiahrt
This race, another mudslinging festival, ended with the result that many predicted from the start. The more moderate Tiahrt, depicting himself as a populist in some regards, did not prevail over the well funded incumbent Mike Pompeo. Tiahrt and Pompeo sparred over the issues, with Tiahrt going for the jugular in Wichita by blaming Pompeo for lost jobs in the aviation sector. While Tiahrt took Sedgwick County 51.9-48.1% and Harvey County 50.3%-49.7%, he did not manage to win many rural precincts. Pomepo played himself as the stronger conservative, which helped him big in rural Kansas. Oilman Wink Hartman, a strong Tiahrt backer, has signaled that he very well may run as a Libertarian, which would split the right and possibly give Carl Brewer a chance. For now, this is Safe Republican, but if Hartman runs as a Libertarian, we'll have to rate this Likely or even Lean Republican due to his large amount of resources and backing.

[/]

Does your nationwide congressional map pertain to the identities of the actual current representatives or just the political leanings of the districts in general?

[VPH]

Does your nationwide congressional map pertain to the identities of the actual current representatives or just the political leanings of the districts in general?

It's a what if if the US had this party system, so some things are different in terms of dynamics, and it also accounts for party splitting in some areas.

[VPH]

Official Primary Results

Secretary of State GOP
Kris Kobach-56.2%
Scott Morgan-43.8%

Senate GOP
Milton Wolf-46.0%
Pat Roberts-45.6%
Jennifer Winn-8.4%

Senate Dem
Dennis McKinney-45.3%
Donald Betts-38.1%
Chad Taylor-16.6%

Governor GOP
Wint Winter-50.5%
Sam Brownback-49.5%

[tschandler]

So you have an American multiparty system with 10 Left of Center parties and 5 Right of center parties?  But not one of the parties is a People's, Libertarian, or Constitution party?  You know names that parties on the right actually tend to name themselves?

[VPH]

So you have an American multiparty system with 10 Left of Center parties and 5 Right of center parties?  But not one of the parties is a People's, Libertarian, or Constitution party?  You know names that parties on the right actually tend to name themselves?

I see 7 right of center parties. Plus, there's a reason this is a what-if scenario. Also, the following of a lot of the leftist parties is tiny.

[Kingpoleon]

So you have an American multiparty system with 10 Left of Center parties and 5 Right of center parties?  But not one of the parties is a People's, Libertarian, or Constitution party?  You know names that parties on the right actually tend to name themselves?

I see 7 right of center parties. Plus, there's a reason this is a what-if scenario. Also, the following of a lot of the leftist parties is tiny.

Could you tell me about what percent nationwide the Liberal Center got, and whether it's increasing or declining in percentage?

[VPH]

So you have an American multiparty system with 10 Left of Center parties and 5 Right of center parties?  But not one of the parties is a People's, Libertarian, or Constitution party?  You know names that parties on the right actually tend to name themselves?

I see 7 right of center parties. Plus, there's a reason this is a what-if scenario. Also, the following of a lot of the leftist parties is tiny.

Could you tell me about what percent nationwide the Liberal Center got, and whether it's increasing or declining in percentage?

Haven't thought out exact percentages, but regional differences are high in this scenario. Maybe 10-15% nationally. They are increasing in popularity as suburban, young voters turn away from the Conservatives and Progressives alike.

[VPH]

Kris Kobach vs Scott Morgan
In a primary marked by an intense amount of vitriol for a Secretary of State race, Scott Morgan at one point appeared to have a chance at taking down the incumbent SoS, the controversial Kris Kobach. Running against voter ID laws and Kobach's obsession with immigration issues, Morgan actually led in some polls in June, before a major cash infusion into the race for Kobach allowed him to run devastating ads portraying Morgan as a 'Lawrence Liberal' in favor of amnesty. Morgan, however, kept fighting and in the end, got a decent margin of the vote. He lost Sedgwick County 58-42 and Johnson County 55-45. These two counties, especially Johnson County, were seen as important areas for Morgan to win. In Western Kansas, for the most part, Kobach ran around 60-70%, but in some counties with a large Hispanic workforce, such as Finney county, Morgan exceeded 40%. We're calling this one Lean Republican.


Milton Wolf vs Pat Roberts
While Miton Wolf began in the race as a relative unknown, but quickly gained traction with the backing of Tea Party groups like Club for Growth and American Prosperity. Jennifer Winn, a Wichita landscaper, ran in the center, as somebody wanting more compromise in DC. The Roberts campaign was very worried by her entrance in the race. He ran advertisements that not only boosted his image, but also attacked Pat Roberts as an out of touch RINO. He really hammered home the residency issue, and as the attack ads continued, Roberts slipped in the polls to the point where Wolf was leading by about 10 points. However, around June, a scandal came out about Milton Wolf publishing photos of deceased patients on Facebook. Suddenly, the race tightened and Roberts retook the lead heading into July. A national ad buy from the RNCC helped boost Pat Roberts, but after a debate in July, Wolf once again took a very slim lead. Heading into primary night, the race was incredibly close. At the end of the day, Pat Roberts barely lost, impacted by underperformance in Western Kansas. Many counties across the state were very close, but Wolf did well in Eastern Kansas and Sedgwick County, which helped him win. Jennifer Winn's best county was Sedgwick County, where she finished with 14%. This race will be fascinating, and right now, it appears to be a Tossup. Greg Orman will be a major factor in this race, and it appears that even following Roberts' primary defeat yesterday, Orman is seeking out his endorsement and that of many moderate Republicans.

[VPH]

Strange that this unfinished mini-TL of mine had Paul Davis, Dennis McKinney, Josh Svaty, and Carl Brewer running.

Irl McKinney ended up running for KS-4 in 2017, Davis is running for KS-2 in 2018, Svaty probably for GOV in 2018, and Brewer for Gov in 2018.