Would Trump have the most lopsided home precinct against him in history?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In 2008 John McCain became the first major party candidate in a very long time to lose his home precinct. The last major party candidate where I can see this as a possibility is Adlai Stevenson in 1956.

Trump lives in Manhattan, so him losing his home state, county and precinct is a given. The question is by what margin. I'm not familiar with the area but is this somewhere where he'd struggle to even get 20%? If so would that be the worst defeat ever for a major party candidate in their home precinct?

[YaBoyNY]

Where does Trump live? His tower?

[cinyc]

It depends on where he actually lives.  I don't think every Manhattan precinct reflexively votes Democratic, at least in local races.  There are some Republicans in places like the Upper East Side. And if he lives in a Midtown precinct with few actual voters, he could win it.

[YaBoyNY]

It depends on where he actually lives.  I don't think every Manhattan precinct reflexively votes Democratic, at least in local races.  There are some Republicans in places like the Upper East Side. And if he lives in a Midtown precinct with few actual voters, he could win it.

In presidential elections, just about every Manhattan precinct reflexively votes Democratic.

And the ones that are "less" Democratic are 65 - 35 in favor of the Democratic candidate as opposed to 85 - 15.

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, Obama won every Manhattan precinct in 2012: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/24/nyregion/the-city-vote-precinct-by-precinct.html?_r=0

[cinyc]

In presidential elections, just about every Manhattan precinct reflexively votes Democratic.

And the ones that are "less" Democratic are 65 - 35 in favor of the Democratic candidate as opposed to 85 - 15.

And what did McCain lose his home precinct by?

[cinyc]

Yeah, Obama won every Manhattan precinct in 2012: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/24/nyregion/the-city-vote-precinct-by-precinct.html?_r=0

Not quite.  According to the New York Times, Romney won the in-person election day vote in 1 and tied in 1 Manhattan precinct.  Guess where the tie occurred?  The precinct that includes Trump Tower (which is where the article says Trump lived at the time).  The Romney win was in a sparsely-populated Midtown Manhattan precinct near the Waldorf-Astoria.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well if Romney tied the Trump Tower precinct then my hypothetical is off, Trump would likely win it. He would likely still set records for losing his home county and state though.

Carson would also be a very likely candidate to beat Stevenson's record for both of those in his home county and state (Howard County, Maryland), although he's probably safe to win his hometown (per DRA McCain won it with about 56%)