Australian Federal Election 2004

[Filuwaúrdjan]

At some point this year, Australia will hold a general election.
It's expected to be to fairly close either way.

Good site: http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/

[Umengus]

I wish the victory of the left and the failure of Howard (after Aznar and before Berlusconi, Bush and Blair), the poodle of Bush.

[Platypus]

Mark latham would use a different term, but I agree.

I probably shouldn't repeat Latham

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mark latham would use a different term, but I agree.

I probably shouldn't repeat Latham

He broke a taxi-driver's arm!

[Nation]

Mark latham would use a different term, but I agree.

I probably shouldn't repeat Latham

He broke a taxi-driver's arm!

Oh, like we all haven't done that at least once.

[Platypus]

Australian SHEPHERD?

I presume you mean australian sheepdog, or kelpie. or Blue Heeler.

Labor is both VERY far left and moderatelty conservative, depending on who you tlk to. if you talk to former leader Kim Beazley, it is centrist; to former leader Crean 9who went to my High School, btw), it is 2 degrees left, if you talk to current leader Latham, it is 1 degree left.

I personally see it as centrist, but thats better then howard and his "Liberals", who are two degrees right.

And he broke it because the taxi driver was a dickhea. No charges were laid, but the taxi driver is voting liberal, apparently :S

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'd like Latham to win... I despise Howard... that thing with the boat people was evil...

[Platypus]

I disagreed with the policy, but let me play devils advocate:

they were comng illegally. They had to be stopped. the detention centers have prved to be a good detterent.

that's the argument pro-Howard.

The other 999 arguments are all against; i subscribe to about 50 of them

If  was going to vote this election, mindful that my seat is a reasonably safe labor seat (I live in Melbourne Ports; klabor by 5.8%) I would vote 1. Aussie Democrats, 2-presuming thereare no independents, or if they are they are wackos-Greens, 3. Labor, 4. Liberal.

I'm not a big fan of the greens, but i'm sick of the two party system, and I am also conscious that if I do want to become a sucesful politician, Ihave to join ne of the parties.

I think i'll probably join the right faction of the ALP. In NSW that's like joining La Cosa Nostra, but here in VIC they are alot more credible then both the Labor left and the NSW Labor right.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I disagreed with the policy, but let me play devils advocate:

they were comng illegally. They had to be stopped. the detention centers have prved to be a good detterent.

that's the argument pro-Howard.

The other 999 arguments are all against; i subscribe to about 50 of them

My main objection was the way Howard used it to get re-elected.

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By saying that the ALP Right in NSW is like joining La Cosa Nostra do mean that it is seen to be a Bad Thing in NSW, or that that they run the place?

[Platypus]

They dominate EVERYTHING in NSW-and they dominate it corruptly :S

[Kodratos]

If I lived there(plan to) I would definately vote National( which is the same as a vote for good ole John Howard)

[Platypus]

if you live where? NSW?

Inthe cities, the Liberals run, in the country, the nationals run. there are only a couple of seats where they both run, and because of prefernces, that doesnt matter

[FreeThinker]

I would agree that the outcome has the potential to be exceedingly close -unless Latham stumbles big time and continues to repeat some of the gaffes, errors and misjudgments that he has shown in formulating policy and making speeches over the last month.

Prime Minister Howard is a dangerous opponent when cornered and I would expect that he will employ every trick in the book to win the forthcoming election. The government is due to hand down a pre-election budget next week and I would expect that it will probably contain a significant number of financial incentives and sweeteners designed to win over disillusioned or undecided voters and shore up support in traditional Liberal and National constituencies.

Howard is also going to be playing the role of international statesman over the next few months -he is scheduled to meet President Bush in Washington, will fly on to meet Prime Minister Blair in London and will subsequently attend the D-Day memorial services in France. I expect Prime Minister Howard to place an emphasis on foreign policy, national security and regional defence during the forthcoming election -terrorism and national security are viewed as strong points for the government and Latham has made some unfortunate gaffes in foreign policy that make him vulnerable on the issue. Iraq could play a role in the forthcoming election -opinion polls are showing that the Australian public are becoming increasingly divided over whether to keep Australian soldiers in Iraq and developments over the next few months could erode Howard's standing in foreign policy if the situation deteriorates. But then again it could make little difference.

Latham's lead over Howard has diminished significantly in the polls over the past few months but perhaps it would be a mistake to read too much into this. Latham was recording approval ratings up to the mid-sixties in opinion polls earlier this year and I think that was largely due to the fact that he was experiencing a honeymoon period after his election as Opposition Leader. I think it was always unlikely that a polarizing figure such as Latham could maintain such high approval ratings and I think they had to come down at some point. In addition I think Howard's various initiatives on the domestic and foreign agenda over recent months will have won back some voters who were becoming disillusioned with his performance.

The impact of state governments on the Federal Election will be interesting to assess. Voters have been known to use federal elections as an opportunity to cast a protest vote against the policies and personalities in state government. If this trend is repeated at the forthcoming Federal Election, it will benefit Howard. The ALP controls all the state governments at the present time so it has the most to lose. To add to Latham's headaches in this area, quite a few of the state governments are performing very badly at the present time and are becoming increasingly unpopular. Prime Minister Howard is expected to capitalize on the disillusionment with the majority of the state governments during the forthcoming election campaign.

Latham is in some ways a very savvy and astute leader and I think this may give him an advantage going into the next election. He is also releasing policy details ahead of time and presenting the ALP as a credible alternative to the government in the lead up to the election -something that the ALP failed to do in 2001 -so I think this will work in his favor. His disadvantage is sometimes he tends to act as a one-man band when formulating policy and this causes him to stumble on occasion and release bad policy proposals which he probably wouldn't have done if he'd consulted colleagues and political advisers more extensively.

As I said, the next election will be close if things continue as they are at the present time.

And just to finish with a disclaimer about my prejudices -I will be voting for Latham

[Carey]

it should be interesting to see Howard go up against a REAL opponent this time. I think the reason why he chose not to retire this term was because he thought he'd be going against Crean in the election and would win in a cakewalk. Now there is a very good chance Latham will be the next PM (which I am entirely for, I believe he is the breath of fresh air that this country's political system needs.)

However, having said that, many of Howard's opponents have learned the hard way not to underestimate him. I certainly hope this time it won't be the case, as Howard's ultraconservative policies are really hurting this country and its international reputation.

[Kodratos]

it should be interesting to see Howard go up against a REAL opponent this time. I think the reason why he chose not to retire this term was because he thought he'd be going against Crean in the election and would win in a cakewalk. Now there is a very good chance Latham will be the next PM (which I am entirely for, I believe he is the breath of fresh air that this country's political system needs.)

However, having said that, many of Howard's opponents have learned the hard way not to underestimate him. I certainly hope this time it won't be the case, as Howard's ultraconservative policies are really hurting this country and its international reputation.

Hurt the country? Surely you must be joking. Australia is maybe as prosperous as it's ever been. What international reputation? Australians have this illusion that they are of at least some importance in world affairs. 90% of the people in the first world couldn't name one member of your parliament. The only thing the rest of the world knows about Australia is that there's an outback and kangaroos.

Latham is NOT a real opponent. The guy keeps losing ground. At this rate he will only win 20% of the electorate when an election is called.

[Carey]

Hurt the country? Surely you must be joking. Australia is maybe as prosperous as it's ever been.

You know what, observing from the fact that you have a glowing picture of Howard in your signature, trying to convince you that prosperity is not merely defined by numbers and qualitatively the country is definately NOT prospering, would just be a waste of my time.

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The one where we are seen as complete pushovers and poodles of the US. The one which occurs when Howard tries to be Bush's sidekick and stick his foot in his mouth, the one where we are pissing everybody in Asia off. Oh yeah, we have no reputation, that's right. When Al Qaeda and Osama are listing their "enemies list" of nations, they really mean Austria when they say Australia.

Intelligent people and government foriegn departments pay attention to what other nations do. They are who the reputation lies with.

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Good point. They don't need us in Iraq anymore, we can bring the troops home now. Also, we can close down Pine Gap and any other overseas military venture in Australia.

Everything is relative, although as tiny as it is, even Australia has an effect on what happens in the world.

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With all due respect, a majority of people in the first world couldn't name a member of their OWN legislatures either. This doesn't prove Australia is insignificant, just that most people are ignorant.

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Actually, this raises a question: how do you know this? Have you been gauging the opinion of the world? Or is it that you are trying to skew a fact by reiterating an opinion of the average Joe who doesn't give a damn about politics and passing it off as the official worldview.

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Like you were going to concede he is....

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Actually, he's been remaining pretty steady.

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Ah yes, a sure sign that an ideologue's defeat is inevitable: When he/she convinces him/herself that a landslide victory is inevitable, despite being in a polarised electorate and the fact that not one poll gives any chance to such a scenario happening.

But sure, believe what you want. Howard will win 80% of the vote with 120+ seats in parliament, George W Bush will also win re-election 90-9-1 with an electoral vote of 538-0 (yes, even DC will go for him) and Aznar's party didn't really lose the Spanish election, but won it in a landslide, oh and everything is going just swell in Iraq....

[Platypus]

Carey-:)

The reputation, K, is he one that only 10 years ago had Australia rated as "The worlds favourite country". Where are we now?

Australia, quite frankly, is loved by the world. But our current position, 9th, is certainly quite a fall, wouldn't you say?

Oh, and Latham is a real opponent. I don't especially like him-like kerry, its a case of 'Anyone-but' (even Crean-he went to my school, so ).  Anyone who can cream an incumbent in polls, repeatedly, is certainly a real opponent.

[© tweed]

What exactly did Howard do to "the boat people"?

[© tweed]

Answer me

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He had them locked up and/or sent to a really sh*tty Pacific Island.

[Platypus]

Short answer:

Locked them in the aussie desert or on a shiotty pacific island.

Long Answer:

How long do you have?

[Umengus]

"Howard unfazed by talk of election loss

But with his big-spending budget falling flat with Aussie voters,the PM is unlikely to call early polls

SYDNEY - Prime Minister John Howard has dismissed an opinion poll showing his government faces election defeat this year after a big-spending budget failed to win over voters.

He said yesterday the poll was meaningless because it had been taken too soon after Tuesday's budget, which contained more than A$30 billion (S$36 billion) in election sweeteners in the form of tax cuts and handouts to families.

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'I think it takes a while for these things to have an influence,' he said in a TV interview.

'It's a gradual process. People don't suddenly change even when they receive benefits.'

Mr Howard, whose Liberal government is facing an unexpectedly strong challenge from rookie opposition Labor Party leader Mark Latham, has repeatedly warned his party faithful against complacency in the bid for a fourth term at an election due anytime between August and December.

The poll published in the Sun-Herald newspaper found the government's standing in the electorate had fallen after the budget, which represented a central plank of the Liberals' re-election strategy.

The telephone poll of 911 voters put the ruling Liberal-National coalition's primary vote at 40 per cent, trailing the main opposition Labor Party's 44 per cent.

It found 14 per cent of voters would switch to Labor because of the budget, while only 8 per cent would shift to voting for the government.

Analysts had expected Mr Howard to call an early August general election but if the budget has fallen flat among the swinging voters, he is likely to wait until October or November to try to chip away at Mr Latham's credibility.

Further surveys are expected to provide an accurate gauge of public opinion this week and will be intensely studied by government election strategists.

Mr Latham said the poll reflected public cynicism at the budget spending spree, which targeted middle- to high-income earners and gave nothing to the most needy.

'There are a lot of people who have got every reason to be disappointed with the budget on Tuesday, the four out of five taxpayers who missed out, the large number of families and singles who didn't receive any form of relief,' he told reporters.

Meanwhile, Mr Howard said he would not retire if his party won the election, saying he would have to get run over by a bus for his heir-apparent to get the top job, the Sunday Telegraph reported.

Finance Minister Peter Costello has hinted that he is reconsidering his political future.

He has been treasurer for eight years and his long-term hope that Mr Howard would eventually step aside and give him the premiership seems continually thwarted.

Mr Howard said Mr Costello might replace him 'if and when I went under a bus'. -- Reuters, AP, AFP"


Source: http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/world/story/0,4386,251350,00.html

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New Poll:

ALP: 56%
Coalition: 44%
AC Nielsen/SMH

With those numbers the ALP would win a landslide.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

After checking this on a pendulam thingy... the ALP would win *98* seats out of 150...

[minionofmidas]

After checking this on a pendulam thingy... the ALP would win *98* seats out of 150...

That's not that much for a 12 point lead. How much did they lose by last time round?