Would Hillary have outperformed Obama's general election numbers in 2008?
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  Would Hillary have outperformed Obama's general election numbers in 2008?
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Author Topic: Would Hillary have outperformed Obama's general election numbers in 2008?  (Read 3960 times)
#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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« on: October 10, 2015, 11:58:58 PM »

In my opinion, due to the Clinton name I think she could have carried Missouri, and Georgia at least adding on the Obama's states and probably would have increased the white vote compared to Kerry 2004 numbers, what do you guys think?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2015, 03:39:43 PM »

Nope. He rallied the African-American vote to win Virginia and North Carolina, and she couldn't do that unless she picked someone like Jesse Jackson, Jr. as her running-mate.
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DS0816
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2015, 04:14:46 PM »

Re: Would Hillary have outperformed Obama's general election numbers in 2008?

Yes.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2015, 04:33:26 PM »

Definitely would have won Missouri.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2015, 07:26:10 PM »

EV wise or PV wise?
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Intell
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2015, 07:44:46 PM »

She would have wan MO, WV and maybe Arkansas, while losing Indiana, Colorado, North Carolina and maybe Virginia.
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DS0816
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2015, 08:10:26 PM »
« Edited: October 11, 2015, 08:15:15 PM by DS0816 »

She would have wan MO, WV and maybe Arkansas, while losing Indiana, Colorado, North Carolina and maybe Virginia.

No to Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina.

Those states would have carried for Hillary Clinton with the same 7.26 percentage-points margin won in a Democratic pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote by likewise Democratic presidential-pickup winner Barack Obama.

Indiana and Missouri produced margins no greater in spread, with both Elections 2008 and 2012, of 1.16 percentage points. (And that spread was in 2008, when John McCain won a narrow Republican hold of ex-bellwether Missouri while Barack Obama won a narrow Democratic pickup of Indiana.)

If Hillary Clinton would have won by a stronger margin, in 2008, by three to five additional points, all of Barack Obama's 2008 Democratic pickups would have also gone to Hillary Clinton … plus Arkansas, Missouri, and West Virginia. An additional five points would've been enough for Montana and Georgia. (On the cusp: John McCain's home state Arizona. And, because the presidential race would not have been the same, one has to consider Louisiana. Beyond that are Tennessee and Kentucky, which have carried the same since 1956. A split outcome between those two states would've yielded a Democratic pickup of Tennessee.)
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2015, 08:47:34 PM »
« Edited: October 11, 2015, 08:49:12 PM by Moderate Hero Republican »

She would have lost Virginia and Indiana but would have won West Virginia, Georgia, and Missouri, Montana, Arkansas
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TDAS04
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« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2015, 04:16:05 PM »

Not in the popular vote, imo, since she was more polarizing.  Not in the electoral college either, since even if she would carried MO, AR, and WV, IN and NC (which she would have lost) have more EVs.
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Clark Kent
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« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2015, 09:06:53 PM »

Would have won Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, and maybe Montana, but lost Indiana, North Carolina, and maybe Virginia.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2015, 07:17:54 AM »

Hillary Clinton would have lost North Carolina, Colorado, and Indiana, but would have won Arkansas, Missouri, and West Virginia.
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Intell
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2015, 08:33:47 AM »

Would have won Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, and maybe Montana, but lost Indiana, North Carolina, and maybe Virginia.

No, Obama was suited for that state.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2015, 12:24:48 PM »

Nope. He rallied the African-American vote to win Virginia and North Carolina, and she couldn't do that unless she picked someone like Jesse Jackson, Jr. as her running-mate.

What if she had picked Obama as her running mate?


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RINO Tom
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« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2015, 01:04:39 PM »

I personally think a Hillary/McCain map in 2008 would have looked something like this:



So, that'd be outperforming him by 3 electoral votes, and I also think a Hillary win in 2008 would have been MUCH better for Southern and Appalachian Democrats at the Congressional and local levels.  However, I don't think she could have pulled off a 2012 win in similar style as Obama in the same environment (2012 was won by Obama PURELY due to how badly Republicans screwed themselves over with the EC, GIVEN the Obama coalition turning out).
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2015, 03:17:18 PM »

In my opinion, due to the Clinton name I think she could have carried Missouri, and Georgia at least adding on the Obama's states and probably would have increased the white vote compared to Kerry 2004 numbers, what do you guys think?

She wouldnt have carried GA. At best she would have gotten Jim Martin's numbers.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2015, 09:24:38 PM »

Warning: Somewhat Empirical Answer!

PV-wise, we have to take the following about blacks into account:

2004: 88% Democratic
2008: 96% Democratic

2004: 11% of electorate
2008: 12% of electorate

So...

2004: 11*0.88 = 9.68
2008: 12*0.96 = 11.52

Obama's influence on the black electorate added 1.84 points to his national PV %. Based on the overall rigidity of the black vote historically, it's unlikely it would have moved in Hillary's favor when compared to 2004 by any meaningful amount.

In order for Hillary to break even and with whites likely being 75% of the electorate under that scenario (whites were 74% in 2008; difference due to lower black turnout in Hillary scenario), Hillary would have needed 2.5 points more of the white vote.

That means Hillary would have needed 45.5% of the white vote just to break even.

I'm not entirely confident that would have happened, but if it had, the change would not be uniform. I bet she would have improved with whites when compared to Obama more in the South than anywhere else, but it likely wouldn't change any Southern state's inevitable EV outcome considering how much the black share of the vote jumped in many of those states (in Georgia, from 25% in 2004 to 30% in 2008; increased the PV by 6.9 points - she would have needed 5 more points of the white vote to perform as well as Obama did in GA under a 2004 scenario).
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2015, 09:40:17 PM »

I suspect (as with Palin) McCain would've chosen J.C. Watts as his running-mate if Clinton won the nomination. I'd say that combined with Clinton's increasingly not-so-dog-whistle nomination campaign ("Obama's losing support from hard-working white Americans") would've meant below-average black support for Clinton.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2015, 04:46:41 PM »

She would have performed better among the Jacksonians and worse among blacks. Probably a wash.
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DS0816
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« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2015, 03:24:39 AM »
« Edited: October 31, 2015, 03:28:48 AM by DS0816 »

The most comprehensive analysis I have read on this estimated that Obama lost 3-5% of the national PV due to hesitant white support, which would more than cancel out the 1.5-2% he gained from historic black turnout and margins.  That suggests a generic white Dem would have won about 57/40 in 2008, which looks consistent with incumbent party performance under economic crisis conditions like FDR over Hoover in 1932.

This means Hillary Clinton would have won a Democratic pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote with a percentage margin between 13.26 and 17.26 points.

That would have been a 2004-to-2008 shift of D+15.72 to D+19.72.

This also means, rather than win the popular vote, as Barack Obama did, by about 9.5 million raw votes…the one for Hillary Clinton would have been an estimated amount between 17 and 23 million. Quite frankly…that would have produced a 40-state landslide in the Electoral College. (Included with that is Texas.)
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President Johnson
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« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2015, 07:32:01 AM »

Maybe in 2020 if she's popular.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2015, 09:28:44 AM »

She probably would have lost IN & NC and won MO. IN is the one state that Dems on the natl level will never win again. Eventhough, Pence will be defeated for reelection nxt year.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2015, 11:33:07 AM »

She probably would have lost IN & NC and won MO. IN is the one state that Dems on the natl level will never win again. Eventhough, Pence will be defeated for reelection nxt year.

Pence will win.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2015, 11:59:31 AM »


351: Sen. Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/Sen. Evan Bayh(D-IN)
187: Sen. John McCain(R-AZ)/Former Rep. J. C. Watts(R-OK)

Clinton wins the black vote 82-17. Large numbers of black voters in Virginia and North Carolina flip especially large as J. C. Watts campaigns hard there in October and November.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2015, 01:05:44 PM »

Just like how Palin flipped the women vote, right?
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DS0816
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« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2015, 04:44:32 AM »

She probably would have lost IN & NC and won MO. IN is the one state that Dems on the natl level will never win again.

What are you basing this on?
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