Predict next national post-debate Democratic poll

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I think:

(w/o Biden)

Clinton 57%
Sanders 22%
O'Malley 6%
Webb 5%
Chafee, Lessig 0%
Undecided 10%

(w Biden)

Clinton 49%
Sanders 22%
Biden 16%
O'Malley 5%
Webb 5%
Chafee, Lessig 0%
Undecided 3%

[RR1997]

I think that nothing will change when it comes to polling numbers. O'Malley might get a small bump, but that's about it.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I think that nothing will change when it comes to polling numbers. O'Malley might get a small bump, but that's about it.

I literally made the same post 10 mins ago lol

[Blue3]

Clinton ~50%

Sanders ~40%

O'Malley ~5%

Webb 0

Chafee 0

[Crumpets]

With Biden:

Clinton: 46%
Sanders: 25%
Biden: 14%
O'Malley: 3%
Webb: 1%
Chafee 0%

Without Biden:

Clinton: 57%
Sanders: 27%
O'Malley: 4%
Webb 1%
Chafee: 0%

[/]

Clinton ~50%

Sanders ~40%

O'Malley ~5%

Webb 0

Chafee 0

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Clinton ~50%

Sanders ~40%

O'Malley ~5%

Webb 0

Chafee 0

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Clinton ~50%

Sanders ~40%

O'Malley ~5%

Webb 0

Chafee 0

Bang on

[Eraserhead]

It really depends on where the poll comes from. Clinton will still be leading of course.

[Famous Mortimer]

Clinton 60%
Sanders 20%
O'Malley 10%
Webb 1%
Chafee 0%

[I support Sanders]

This question is moot. It is October 2015, and the debates are already underway. Clinton has the establishment vote locked up, and Biden has been through emotional trauma in the past year. He will not enter the race.

[Figueira]

Biden falls (due to not being in the debate), and O'Malley rises. Chafee and Webb might get very small bumps due to increased name recognition.

[The Other Castro]

Clinton - 42%
Sanders - 28%
Biden - 11%
O'Malley - 7%
Webb - 2%
Chafee - 1%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If Biden is included
- Biden falls
- Clinton gains
- Bernie steady
- O'Malley gains

No Biden
- Clinton gains a lot
- Bernie picks up a little
- O'Malley gains (but more than if Biden were included)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton 41%
Sanders 29%
Biden 16%
O' Malley 3%
Webb 1%
Chafee 1%

[Maxwell]

I will not predict numbers, but I think Hillary will stop the bleeding on her side, and Bernie will bleed a little bit. Maybe O'Malley will rise on the sheer fact that he was talking alot tonight.

[Famous Mortimer]

Undecideds will move towards Clinton.

Bernie will lose a little but remain mostly the same.

O'Malley will see a jump.

Webb will get the support of trolls.

Chafee will fall to 0%

[andrew_c]

Clinton 60%
Sanders 30%
Others 10%

[Mr. Morden]

No Biden
- Clinton gains a lot
- Bernie picks up a little
- O'Malley gains (but more than if Biden were included)

How can Clinton, Sanders, and O'Malley all gain at the same time?  There aren't that many percentage points to work with among Chafee/Webb/Undecided.

[Tender Branson]

57% Clinton
19% Sanders
  8% Warren
  3% Klobauchar (sic)
  2% O'Malley
  2% Cuomo
  1% Gillibrand
  0% Webb
  0% Chafee
  8% Undecided

Conducted by Gravis Marketing or Reuters/Ipsos.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No Biden
- Clinton gains a lot
- Bernie picks up a little
- O'Malley gains (but more than if Biden were included)

How can Clinton, Sanders, and O'Malley all gain at the same time?  There aren't that many percentage points to work with among Chafee/Webb/Undecided.

You're right.

Clinton and O'Malley up

[Mr. Morden]

I think you need to distinguish between “probability to win the nomination” and “current standing in the polls”.

On standing in the polls, Clinton may gain some in the polls that include Biden.  But in the polls that don’t include Biden, she already has such an enormous lead (she’s leading Sanders by at least 20, and sometimes 30, in every national poll that excludes Biden, while O’Malley, Chafee, and Webb are at a combined ~2%) that I don’t see how she’s going to go any higher.  She went into this with a big lead in simple name recognition, even over Sanders.  Just by appearing on the same stage with her, Sanders and O’Malley could end up gaining a little support at her expense.

But that doesn’t matter.  How big her polling lead over Sanders is doesn’t matter.  The bottom line is that she performed well enough to dissuade any supporters from jumping ship on her, at least in the short term.  And the short term is what really matters, since there are zero debates left between now and the first filing deadlines to get on primary ballots.  So her probability of winning the nomination has definitely increased.

[The Other Castro]

I highly doubt Clinton is going to jump back over 50 so quickly after the debate.