Would Venezuela be better off if the 2002 coup had succeeded?

[Oakvale]

The answer's almost certainly yes, at this point, no? It would be ugly but it's hard to imagine things being much worse than they are after the disastrous years of Chavez and a guy who talks to a parrot for advice.

[politicus]

The answer's almost certainly yes, at this point, no? It would be ugly but it's hard to imagine things being much worse than they are after the disastrous years of Chavez and a guy who talks to a parrot for advice.

Not really, it would have led to a civil war. The Venezuelan right wing was and is pretty terrible. The best outcome would have been a transfer of power after Chavez retaining the positive elements of his legacy. Some kind of redistribution was necessary, and the forces behind the coup attempt were simply too reactionary to realize this.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I just wish they would have given him the Allende treatment when they realized the coup was falling apart. They had him in custody.

[politicus]

I just wish they would have given him the Allende treatment when they realized the coup was falling apart. They had him in custody.

Do you really support executing democratically elected leaders?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I just wish they would have given him the Allende treatment when they realized the coup was falling apart. They had him in custody.

Do you really support executing democratically elected leaders?

Allende was not killed. He committed "suicide"

I obviously don't I just like yanking chains.

[Blue3]

Imagine if there was no successful coup in Iran in 1956, and the next 15 years there was economic turmoil and socialist-y leaders.

And people would be asking "would Iran be better off if the 1956 coup had succeeded?"

But there was a coup, there was a pro-American dictator with a secret police for a few decades, and he was then overthrown and replaced in a revolution that led to the Islamic Republic, fiercely anti-American (with some justification, because of the coup). Which then led to a ripple effect throughout the Middle East, with political Islamists thinking they too could seize power in places like Afghanistan, getting Saudi Arabia worried about Shia influence and more willing to back Sunni fundamentalists, and giving Saddam Hussein an excuse and Western support to invade Iran. Etc. Etc. Etc.



My point, you never know how things are going to turn out.  Venezuela isn't too bad off. Certainly not bad off enough to justify the overthrow of their democracy.

[DavidB.]

I just wish they would have given him the Allende treatment when they realized the coup was falling apart. They had him in custody.

Exactly.

[politicus]

I just wish they would have given him the Allende treatment when they realized the coup was falling apart. They had him in custody.

Exactly.

A "Bolivarist" regime without Chavez would almost certainly have been more authoritarian, as they didn't have Chavez to win elections for them.

Despite the utter failure of the current regime it is also worth remembering that Chavez didn't occur in a vacuum. Venezuela had a terrible right wing, even by Latin American standards, and an upper class unwilling to accept redistribution of the oil wealth or poverty alleviation after the 80s collapse of oil prices. A counter reaction to this was logical and some of Chavez reforms were entirely necessary.

At the same time a previous expansion of the public sector during the high oil prices in the 70s and "Saudi Venezuela" had created expectations of an activist state, but mostly benefited the middle class and regime cronies.

[Simfan34]

I was very pleased to see that oakvale started this thread. And yes, of course.

[politicus]

I was very pleased to see that oakvale started this thread. And yes, of course.

Why "of course"? Do you believe they would have avoided descending into civil war in this scenario?
If so, that seems unrealistic.

[seb_pard]

No, the opposition is also very corrupt and any Venezuelan government coalition would be in trouble with the current oil price.

The country is too dependent on oil and very corrupt (both right and left).