snapshot poll: Is Hillary 45?

[Bacon King]

Poll open for 24 hours. Will Hillary be the next President of the US?

[Bacon King]

YES: Hillary is now inevitable and I congratulate her pending election as first female leader of the free world

[Marokai Backbeat]

I dunno. She will be the nominee, but there was never any real doubt about that. Whether she can win the election proper remains to be seen. I don't even know if I'll vote for her then.

[Mr. Reactionary]

< 50% chance

[Lief 🗽]

She's far and away the most talented politician in the race at this point. I think she's the obvious favorite, but things outside of her control can of course happen.

[7,052,770]

No guarantee, but way more likely than any other individual.

[Higgs]

No, luckily

[Admiral Kizaru]

No guarantee, but way more likely than any other individual.

This.

Rubio running a solid campaign and really contrasting the old vs new theme has a really good shot though.

[Likely Voter]

Certainly the most likely single individual. I would say 90% chance she wins Dem nomination and 55% chance she wins the general (because demographics), so it is essentially 50/50 that she is 45

[Eraserhead]

It's certainly possible, maybe even more likely than not, but it won't be because she did well in a primary debate that her chief rival also did well in.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Unless Biden jumps in, then it will be a toss-up between her and Rubio/Trump. (She would be favoured against Carson/Cruz and electorally obliterate Yeb). So, she is the most likely individual person to be president in 2017, although I'm not confident enough to say she is favoured (I.e. probability over 50%)

[I support Sanders]

It's certainly possible, maybe even more likely than not, but it won't be because she did well in a primary debate that her chief rival also did well in.

I agree. I don't think Clinton did particularly well in the debate, either. She was better than Chafee and Webb, but I think Sanders and O'Malley both performed very well tonight. It was clear that Hillary was pandering throughout, and lying about some of her previous positions and flip-flops. She did give strong answers on gun control and paid family leave, however. If she is the Democratic nominee, she is almost guaranteed to win the Presidency, unless the GOP candidate is John Kasich, which would even the odds. The problem is that I'm not sure she'll win the nomination. I think that Bernie has as good of a chance as she does.

[The Other Castro]

No, not unless the GOP nominates a lunatic.

So that's a yes then?

[Figueira]

Most likely, yes. I'd put her chances at around 60% now, but that's a very rough estimate.

[Cryptic]

No guarantee, but way more likely than any other individual.

[OSR stands with Israel]

No, not unless the GOP nominates a lunatic.

That's unfortunately probably gonna happen . The GOP base will vote for a lunatic this time( Trump, Carson, Cruz, Fiorina) then let sane people like Kasich,Rubio get the nomination.

[seanNJ9]

No, not unless the GOP nominates a lunatic.

so yes

[Mr. Morden]

No, not unless the GOP nominates a lunatic.

That's unfortunately probably gonna happen . The GOP base will vote for a lunatic this time( Trump, Carson, Cruz, Fiorina) then let sane people like Kasich,Rubio get the nomination.

So the GOP will nominate both a lunatic and a sane person at the same time?

[defe07]

Hahaha... No, she doesn't look like 45 at all but you can tell she did a bit of nip and tuck!

[OSR stands with Israel]

No, not unless the GOP nominates a lunatic.

That's unfortunately probably gonna happen . The GOP base will vote for a lunatic this time( Trump, Carson, Cruz, Fiorina) then let sane people like Kasich,Rubio get the nomination.

So the GOP will nominate both a lunatic and a sane person at the same time?

Did you even get what I meant, I clearly said that the GOP will nominate a lunatic over sane people like Kasich or Rubio

[Mr. Morden]

No, not unless the GOP nominates a lunatic.

That's unfortunately probably gonna happen . The GOP base will vote for a lunatic this time( Trump, Carson, Cruz, Fiorina) then let sane people like Kasich,Rubio get the nomination.

So the GOP will nominate both a lunatic and a sane person at the same time?

Did you even get what I meant, I clearly said that the GOP will nominate a lunatic over sane people like Kasich or Rubio

No, I didn't get what you meant, because I don't think it was clear.  I was legit confused by your sentence, because you seem to have left out a "rather".  I take it what you meant was?:

"The GOP base will vote for a lunatic this time( Trump, Carson, Cruz, Fiorina) rather than let sane people like Kasich,Rubio get the nomination."

[TarHeelDem]

Of course she will. She's been favored for that position since Election Day 2008.

[Mr. Morden]

Ftr, most of the online betting sites give Clinton a less than 50% chance of winning.  Here are the top six on Betfair, winning individual:

Clinton 42.6
Bush 12.5
Sanders 11.4
Rubio 11.1
Biden 9.5
Trump 7.2

[Sasquatch]

Is Hillary 45? Lean No.

Hillary should win comfortably, but I suspect she'll find a way to lose.

[Slander and/or Libel]

Ftr, most of the online betting sites give Clinton a less than 50% chance of winning.  Here are the top six on Betfair, winning individual:

Clinton 42.6
Bush 12.5
Sanders 11.4
Rubio 11.1
Biden 9.5
Trump 7.2

Some of that is from conditional probabilities that won't materialize. Biden isn't running for the nomination, so all of that basically goes to Hillary, bringing her up to 52.1. Most of the Sanders line would go to her too, and Sanders is unlikely to win the primary, which should realistically bring her to over 60%.