South Korean (early) presidential election (9 May 2017)

[Simfan34]

It's never too early. And the speculation is fun.

This post reserved.

[Simfan34]

Rumors have been swirling for some time now around UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and his interest (or lack thereof) in seeking his country's presidency after finishing his UN term at the end of 2016; while there's no formal barrier to him seeking re-election as Secretary-General, convention provides for a two term limit. The President of South Korea, on the other hand, is limited to a single five year term, Park Geun-Hye's expires at the end of 2017. This would essentially give him a full year to stage a run; ample time to run a campaign (at least outside the US).

So first, what about these rumors? They first started to circulate in earnest late last year when members of the ruling Saenuri Party mooted the idea of nominating Ban as their candidate in the next election, only to have a grandee of the leading opposition party (whatever it is called these days) claim that someone close to Ban had sounded him out about the possibility of having Ban as their candidate. Ban responded by putting out a statement saying that he had indicated no such interest and was focused only on doing his job as Secretary-General. This has pretty much been his line ever since-- that he's never shown any interest and it would be inappropriate to do so while in office. In May he said:

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Hardly a shermanesque statement. This followed a visit to his home country, which, lasting five days, was (apparently) unusually long, and, with its focus on North-South relations, went over well with the general public.

Ban was a career diplomat, but served as foreign minister in the left-wing administration of Roh Moo-hyun. Both parties have speculated about nominating him as their candidate, but it increasingly appears that if he were to run it would be with the support of the ruling party. While in New York for the UN General Assembly meeting last month, incumbent president Park Geun-hye and Ban held no fewer than seven well-publicised meetings, most notable of which was a forum dedicated to touting the Saemaul Undong (New Community Movement) rural development programme as a model for similar programmes around the world. Such self-promoting side events is a well-established part of UN meetings, and South Korea has long worked to spread the Saemaul model (which, it must be said, is not at all a bad one), but such praise is particularly interesting coming from Park Geun-hye, who, of course, is the daughter of the president who implemented the programme in the first place, Park Chung-hee. Thus Ban lavishing his own praise on Saemaul Undong and on Park Geun-hye for promoting is especially interesting.

Park Geun-hye has increasingly been at loggerheads with the Saenuri Party chairman, Kim Moo-sung, particularly over a proposal to introduce open primaries, which she opposes, while Kim Moo-sung and Moon Jae-in, the main opposition leader, have both declared their support. Kim Moo-sung and Moon Jae-in are seen as the most likely candidates of their parties in 2017, but polls have shown them both losing decisively to Ban Ki-moon. Thus, when a pro-Park Saenuri Party legislator says that he thinks that Ban would be a good candidate, one begins to imagine that Park and her allies may very well be planning to enlist the Secretary-General as their candidate in 2017... a notion which his actions have done nothing to discourage. And of course, it's not like a Secretary-General has never been elected President before... although the Korean Presidency is not ceremonial nor is Ban likely to be exposed as a former SS member. Perez de Celluar also ran once, but lost.

I'd like to dig up polls showing how Ban would fare in a hypothetical matchup, and then maybe profile the two candidates and their parties. But not too much, because Korean politics are confusing, and this election is two years away. The main question is-- will he or won't he?

[Simfan34]

I'd add that the decided disinterest Ban is showing is the closest he could reasonably get to a "yes" without inviting accusations of impropriety or a lack of commitment. To even show that he was open to the idea would probably cause some to ask if he was paying enough attention to his job. I feel like his statements have been carefully phrased-- he's so busy, there's no time to even think about future plans.

[Vega]

Thanks for making this - I had no idea he was considering it.

Two things stand out to me, and, one is shock he's conservative. Also, he's a bit old, but that seems not to matter anymore.

[Simfan34]

An update from the Wall Street Journal:

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[Famous Mortimer]

Ban Ki-moon was Foreign Minister under Roh Moo-hyun, South Korea's most liberal president. So I would suspect he leans to the left.

[Asian Nazi]

Ban Ki-moon was Foreign Minister under Roh Moo-hyun, South Korea's most liberal president. So I would suspect he leans to the left.

It's not too unusual for South Korean politicians to switch allegiances though.  Politics in that country is based much more on patronage and regionalism than Western notions of ideology, and while there is a vague "progressive" bloc and a vague "conservative" bloc, the vast majority of voters and elites aren't overly committed to a certain set of politics.  For instance, it's pretty common for leaders to split, rebrand, or dissolve parties on a whim in order to improve their own position.  In this case, it wouldn't shock me to see Ban just side with whoever he thinks will give him the most power and the best chance of winning and the fact that he's even entertaining the idea of siding with Saenuri makes me think that he isn't some committed Roh man (unlike opposition leader Moon Jae-in, who is Roh's former chief of staff and essentially his ideological and political successor).

If either bloc were to get Ban to sign on, it'd be a massive coup.  I think the conservatives, especially the pro-Park faction, have the most to gain by bringing him on board as they're behind in the polls and most of their top candidates have issues.  I think Ban is viewed positively enough across the country where he could win, but this might change if he becomes an actual candidate and has to take sides on issues. 

[Vega]

So, if Ban doesn't run, how likely is a Moon Jae-in run/victory? He seems like quite an affable guy, and has that "classic" look for a President (at least in the US)? How is he seen currently?

[Vega]

Apparently Ahn Cheol-soo, the wealthy candidate for President in 2012, and former chairman, quit NPAD. Things could get messy.

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2015/12/116_193056.html

[Simfan34]

Ban is faltering in the polls.

[Antonio the Sixth]

When will the SC decide on Park's impeachment?

[Simfan34]

Turns out the answer is no.

[peterthlee]

I will predict that liberal candidate will win 57-43 (strong liberal gain) in the GE head to head, crushing the conservatives by 59-41 in Seoul, sweeping through the swing states of Chungcheongs, Sejong and Daejeon, amassing a total of around 18 million votes (making them the most vote-getter in South Korean history).
Moreover, the liberals could keep Busan, a conservative bastion (Park obliterated Moon by a 3-2 margin in 2012) within 5 points...

[RogueBeaver]

Park has been removed, special within 60 days. *Insert Nixon chopper meme here.*

[MAINEiac4434]

How long until Moon Jae-in announces?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Minjoo +1

[Lachi]

This is the perfect time for Minjoo to win the presidency.

As I have said, if Saenuri wants to remain a viable party in the future, they need to change radically.

EDIT: Saenuri has changed its name, as of Feb. 13. The party's new name is 자유한군당 (Liberty Party Korea)

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Yay, even another useless party name change in Korea, it will change everything!

[Lachi]

Yay, even another useless party name change in Korea, it will change everything!

To be fair, it was because there was a break off in the party, creating a new party, and leaving the old one with less than 100 seats.

[peterthlee]

Will President Moon invite Supreme leader Kim to visit Seoul?
This could earn him a Nobel Medal.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Good thing that Ban is not running. He was incompetent as a UN leader, no reason that he'll be any more competent as a country's leader. His treatment of Israel compared to his treatment of oppressive dictatorships was particularly awful.

[kelestian]

So, election is close! Yesterday last main candidate was nominated by his party. It seems like first non-competitive election since falling of dictature, after Park Geun-hye impeachment and after Ban Ki-Moon and Hwang Kyo-ahn declined.

Main participants:
Moon Jae-in, predicted winner, from the Democratic party, theoretically centre-left candidate. Before primaries democratic candidates combined were polled at 50-60%

Ahn Cheol-soo, predicted Moon's main opponent, People's party, centrist. Now - 20%

Hong Jun-pyo, from the renamed Saenuri, right-wing. 7-8%

Sim Sang-jung, Justice party, left-wing. Now her rating is 3%

Yoo Seung-min, from the new Baerun party, centre-right (former part of Saenuri). 2,5 %

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Oh have the primaries happened already? Shame, i liked Mayor Lee. Not that Moon is terrible or anything.

[jaichind]

It will be Moon vs Ahn.  Moon should have the edge but the old Saenuri (now Liberal) vote might vote tactically for Ahn.  The Liberal candidate is from Gyeongsang which is good at getting the core Saenuri vote but will most likely lose for it all the marginal Saenuri voters.

[Lachi]

The era of Saenuri looks like it is about to end, thank goodness.

Anyway, Moon will probably win, unless the smaller parties voters vote tactically, then it will get interesting.