South Korean (early) presidential election (9 May 2017)

[jaichind]

this is first time that south korea have left-wing president. this is probably good for united korea talks.

You do not consider Kim Dae-jung or Roh Moo-hyun left wing ? I do

[jaichind]

With 59% of the vote in it is

Moon  39.58
Hong  26.15
Ahn   21.34
Yoo      6.52
Sim     5.83

Hong still running ahead of exit polls in Greater Seoul and other urban areas.  It is in the rural areas that exit polls seems to match Hong's performance.

[jaichind]

With 70% of the vote in it is

Moon  39.72
Hong  25.88
Ahn   21.40
Yoo      6.57
Sim     5.87

Hong still running about 2%-3% ahead exit polls in urban areas but mostly matches exit polls in rural areas.  Most likely he will end up with something like 25.3% which is 2% ahead of his exit poll numbers.

[Hydera]

With 70% of the vote in it is

Moon  39.72
Hong  25.88
Ahn   21.40
Yoo      6.57
Sim     5.87

Hong still running about 2%-3% ahead exit polls in urban areas but mostly matches exit polls in rural areas.  Most likely he will end up with something like 25.3% which is 2% ahead of his exit poll numbers.

Just curious, is there any poll showing how the votes would end up if it was just Moon vs Hong?

[jaichind]

With 90% of the vote in it is

Moon  40.43
Hong  24.89
Ahn   21.48
Yoo      6.64
Sim     6.00

At lot more votes came in from Greater Seoul so even though Hong outperformed exit polls there by 2% or so the fact that in non-urban areas he mostly got his exit poll numbers he will end up around 1.4-%1.5% higher than exit polls.

[jaichind]

Just curious, is there any poll showing how the votes would end up if it was just Moon vs Hong?

Not that I know off but I expect it to be something like 65 vs 35 given the reputation of the center-right with the Park scandals. 

[jaichind]

With 96% of the vote in it is

Moon  40.80
Hong  24.41
Ahn   21.44
Yoo      6.71
Sim     6.09

So in the end the exit polls were fairly accurate with the exception of Hong beating his exit polls by around 1.5%-2% in urban areas which leads to him to beat his exit polls by around 1% overall.

[jaichind]

Final polling averages along with exit polls (from Japanese election blog)



Hong was projected to get around 17% of the vote, exit polls said 23.3% and most likely he will end up with around 24.3%

[Sorenroy]

Final polling averages along with exit polls (from Japanese election blog)



Hong was projected to get around 17% of the vote, exit polls said 23.3% and most likely he will end up with around 24.3%

What's with the massive jump for Ahn Cheol-soo? Where did it come from? No one else seemed to lose support (in fact Moon Jae-in had an increase at the same time).

[Hydera]

Final polling averages along with exit polls (from Japanese election blog)



Hong was projected to get around 17% of the vote, exit polls said 23.3% and most likely he will end up with around 24.3%

What's with the massive jump for Ahn Cheol-soo? Where did it come from? No one else seemed to lose support (in fact Moon Jae-in had an increase at the same time).

He campaigned as the anti-Moon candidate which got him a lot of support from conservatives who where gonna vote for him just to stop moon. Then he tanked in the debates and Hong was able to get a lot of that conservative vote to come home.

[H. Ross Peron]

Here's more detailed results at the city/ward/county level (in Korean): http://media.daum.net/election/2017/0509/vote/count/#0

[Sorenroy]

Final polling averages along with exit polls (from Japanese election blog)



Hong was projected to get around 17% of the vote, exit polls said 23.3% and most likely he will end up with around 24.3%

What's with the massive jump for Ahn Cheol-soo? Where did it come from? No one else seemed to lose support (in fact Moon Jae-in had an increase at the same time).

He campaigned as the anti-Moon candidate which got him a lot of support from conservatives who where gonna vote for him just to stop moon. Then he tanked in the debates and Hong was able to get a lot of that conservative vote to come home.

But where did his support come from in the first place? Was there just a big block of undecideds? It looks like 25% just went to him without anyone else loosing any. Was there another candidate in the race that dropped out?

[Tintrlvr]

Final polling averages along with exit polls (from Japanese election blog)



Hong was projected to get around 17% of the vote, exit polls said 23.3% and most likely he will end up with around 24.3%

What's with the massive jump for Ahn Cheol-soo? Where did it come from? No one else seemed to lose support (in fact Moon Jae-in had an increase at the same time).

He campaigned as the anti-Moon candidate which got him a lot of support from conservatives who where gonna vote for him just to stop moon. Then he tanked in the debates and Hong was able to get a lot of that conservative vote to come home.

But where did his support come from in the first place? Was there just a big block of undecideds? It looks like 25% just went to him without anyone else loosing any. Was there another candidate in the race that dropped out?

Undecideds. Polling in South Korea (in Asia, really) always reports enormous percentages undecided. The number of undecideds dropped considerably over the course of the campaign, mostly coinciding with when Ahn surged. Then, as his support collapsed, it mostly went to other candidates rather than back to undecided.

[Dereich]

Final polling averages along with exit polls (from Japanese election blog)



Hong was projected to get around 17% of the vote, exit polls said 23.3% and most likely he will end up with around 24.3%

What's with the massive jump for Ahn Cheol-soo? Where did it come from? No one else seemed to lose support (in fact Moon Jae-in had an increase at the same time).

He campaigned as the anti-Moon candidate which got him a lot of support from conservatives who where gonna vote for him just to stop moon. Then he tanked in the debates and Hong was able to get a lot of that conservative vote to come home.

But where did his support come from in the first place? Was there just a big block of undecideds? It looks like 25% just went to him without anyone else loosing any. Was there another candidate in the race that dropped out?

Park was permanently removed on March 10th, just before the big polling swings. I'd assume the pre-surge numbers were only speculative, without the field being fully known, and the surge came when the candidates declared and the race took final shape.

[jaichind]

With 99% of the vote in it is

Moon  41.20
Hong  24.11
Ahn   21.42
Yoo      6.74
Sim     6.15

More of Greater Seoul came in.  Hong's over performance over his exit polls diminished as the last batches votes came in for urban areas so he dropped some more.  I think this is pretty much it.

[jaichind]

Counting done

Moon  41.08
Hong  24.03
Ahn   21.41
Yoo      6.76
Sim     6.17

[Antonio the Sixth]

For once, a landslide victory by a candidate who's actually worth supporting.

[MAINEiac4434]

For once, a landslide victory by a candidate who's actually worth supporting.

Right? And while we can probably thank Park Geun-hye for it, it's still a merit for the Korean people that a social democrat won the election.

[Gustaf]

For once, a landslide victory by a candidate who's actually worth supporting.

And the rapist "only" got a quarter of the vote!