The Rise and Fall of Donald Trump
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  The Rise and Fall of Donald Trump
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mencken
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« on: October 19, 2015, 02:30:48 PM »

Chapter Three: The Road to Iowa


Then-real estate mogul Donald Trump had dominated the Republican field for months by the end of October. However, another middling debate performance on CNBC threatened to end his joyride. Senator Marco Rubio, the new darling of the Republican establishment, was generally declared the winner of said debate, and for the first time in the campaign began to consistently post double digit performances in national polls. Trump knew he needed another gimmick, such as accusing the debate moderator of menstruating or one of his opponents of being ugly, if he were to maintain his hegemony over the Republican nominating contest. After a critical Stossel episode examining Trump's history of eminent domain use and the feasibility of his immigration plan, Trump seized on the opportunity to start a Third War on Fox. "John Stossel is a whiny loser who is weak on immigration and couldn't handle the pressure of being on a serious network like ABC," Trump whined during one of his ever-popular rallies in the early states. After three poor debate performances, each of which threatened to up-end his frontrunner status, Trump hastily pulled out of the Fox Business debate, scheduled for November 10, and negotiated with ABC for a concurrent 90 minute broadcast of Trump miming and lambasting each and every one of his opponents1. Predictably, Trump's caricature 'debate' garnered triple the audience of the actual debate (27 million vs. 9 million), demonstrating Trump's point and recovering his standing in the polls.

Although Rubio solidified his third-place position nationally, his lack of attention to the early states showed, as he still struggled to break out of single digits in Iowa and New Hampshire. Rubio slowly began to accumulate funds as the de facto establishment candidate, hoping that he could lay low for a while before becoming the only remaining candidate with the financial capability of taking on Trump2. In the meantime, the Tea Party trio of Trump, Carson, and Cruz continued to dominate Iowa polls. The latter two were a perpetual thorn in Trump's side, for while they posed the primary obstacle to his candidacy at this time, a direct attack against them would tarnish his popularity with his Tea Party base. Thus, Trump largely continued the strategy of keeping them safely within his tent, with join rallies between the three candidates becoming an increasingly common, if bizarre, feature of the fall campaign.

As another of the Kryptonite-esque debates approached in December, Trump's seemingly spontaneous move in early November paid its dividends. Trump demanded to CNN that the format be changed to a one-on-one 60 minute Lincoln-Douglas debate, else he would withdraw from the debate and repeat his November stunt on a different network. CNN predictably kowtowed to the real estate strongman's wishes, and his rivals like lemmings lept over each other for the opportunity to engage him. Trump sadistically selected the languishing former Governor Jeb Bush, who was metaphorically slaughtered by Trump as the billionaire highlighted his adversary's fraternal albatross3. Critics agreed that Jeb's inability to defend his brother gave his campaign a life expectancy of a matter of weeks.

Former HP CEO Carly Fiorina, whose campaign lived and died on her debate performances, suffered considerably as well from Trump's blockade of the traditional debate format. With his two most promising competitors for the establishment slot floundering and ample funds coming in, members of Rubio's campaign debated the merits of making a last-minute fundraising blitz to halt Trump's momentum in Iowa. However, 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney, who made a similar strategic move in his prior campaigns without much success, cautioned against the idea, advising that Rubio's arsenal should be saved for friendlier territory in New Hampshire and Nevada. During the month of January, the Iowa airwaves were flooded by the Cruz and Carson campaigns, who used their respective fundraising monoliths to jockey for a great finish in the heavily-evangelical caucus. Seizing the opportunity to divide the social conservative vote, Trump alternated between impromptu praise of Carson and Cruz during his speeches, carefully balancing to ensure that neither opponent gained the upper hand with that electorate. Polls on the eve of the caucus indicated a three-way statistical tie for the top spot, with all other candidates mired in single digits.

1Neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Senator Ted Cruz were only lightly jabbed during this performance, and were even invited to headline his rallies the subsequent week in order to show no hard feelings toward the amicable contenders.
2This strategy neglected to factor in the continued fundraising prowess of the Carson and Cruz campaigns.
3Stenographers determined that 'George' and 'Bush' were the two most common words to come from Trump's mouth, in every context from 9/11 to Iraq to Katrina to immigration reform to the bailouts.
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mencken
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2015, 05:43:40 PM »
« Edited: October 20, 2015, 06:57:45 PM by mencken »

Chapter Four: Lightning War


Observers believed that an early win in Iowa would prove decisive for Mr. Trump, whose aura of inevitability would be reinforced in subsequent primaries. However, the barrage of ads from outside anti-Trump groups combined with a late endorsement by Representative Steve King for Ted Cruz proves to be decisive, as the Texas Senator narrowly prevailed in a tight three-way fight to the finish1. Cruz's victory on the backs of social conservatives proved damaging to the Carson campaign and fatal to Jindal, Huckabee, and Santorum.

With poll numbers in New Hampshire declining into the upper teens, Trump himself appeared to be falling victim to a death spiral. Rubio's large warchest greeted Trump in New Hampshire, where both his official campaign and various affiliated SuperPACs were flooding with airwaves with millions of dollars worth of negative advertisements regarding his business practices. The victorious Cruz, believing that rumors of Trump's demise were indeed veritable, began to aggressively target New Hampshire as well, hoping to harness the leftovers from the billionaire's freefall into unstoppable momentum for his rising campaign.

Trump's ability to control the media narrative was significantly hampered from earlier in the campaign. However, as a master reader of people, he quickly seized a way to regain his unparalleled ability to obtain free coverage for his novelty campaign. In his Iowa concession speech, Trump congratulated Cruz on his win, then quickly segued into lambasting the media for hyping up Governor Christie's sixth place finish as a victory2, from which he proceeded to liberally mention the New Jersey Governor's corpulence. Christie, both short-tempered and needing a Hail Mary in order to remain relevant in this race, took the bait and spewed retaliatory verbal insults at the real estate mogul. Coverage of the Trump-Christie spat on local New Hampshire outlets soon overtook the desired narratives of the Cruz and Rubio campaigns. By attacking Christie for his numerous departures from mainstream conservatism (and unironically branding the cantankerous Governor a loose cannon), Trump both recovered the respect of conservatives and swayed many centrist voters that Christie was in fact the maverick they had been looking for. Seen in this light, the outcome out of New Hampshire was unsurprising3. Candidates of the establishment were slower to take a hint than those of the religious right, with only Kasich bowing out after his underwhelming performance.

Having recovered his momentum, split the ranks of the Republican establishment, and demonstrated his perseverance against expensive media campaigns, Trump's primary obstacle at this point in time was his friendly rival, Cruz. Not only was the conservative firebrand nipping on his heels in South Carolina polling (Cruz's rise seemed to coincide with a dip in Dr. Carson's numbers), but a loss in the First of the South primary would bode poorly for Trump's chances in the Southern-heavy Super Tuesday contests to come. Clearly Trump needed another stunt to secure his standing in South Carolina and continue his momentum to the Super Tuesday contests.

(To be continued...)

1 Caucus results: Cruz 22%, Trump 21%, Carson 20%, Rubio 12%, Jindal 7%, Christie 6%, Bush 4%, Fiorina 4%, Paul 3%, Scattering 2%
2 No reporter or media outlet actually did this
3 Primary results: Trump 28%, Christie 16%, Cruz 14%, Rubio 8%, Paul 7%, Kasich 7%, Carson 7%, Fiorina 7%, Bush 6%
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mencken
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2015, 09:50:39 PM »

Continued...


Of all Trump's adversaries, it was clear that Senator Cruz was the only one who had a clue regarding political strategy. With Trump emerging as the man to beat for the Republican nomination, it was clear that Cruz's hopes of appealing to Trump's supporters would bear little fruit at this stage of the process. However, his record as a firebrand meant he had little opportunity to curry favor with the establishment either. Cruz sought to curry favor with key figures of the Tea Party, such as Representatives Gowdy, Duncan, Mulvaney, and Sanford and Senator Tim Scott. As for his opponent, the feisty Texas senator opted for targeting Trump on his weak point; the Harvard law graduate repeatedly pressed the frontrunner on participating in a debate prior to the South Carolina primary, asserting that the eventual GOP nominee would need to prove he could handle scrutiny before facing off against Hillary Clinton.

However, the brilliant legal mind more than met his match in the shrewd billionaire. Trump successfully twisted his avoidance of a substantive debate as a principled stand against media bias. "Why should I, the greatest businessman to grace the face of the Earth, give these liberal media networks record ratings, which will give them millions of dollars with which to attack the Republican nominee, which, let's face it, is probably going to be me? Now, I like Senator Cruz, he's really a good guy, a good friend of mine, but I really can't agree with him on this." Trump's siege mentality worked wonders, ironically allowing him to recapture the media narrative. Trump even pressed his advantage, expressing fear of how the primary would turn out in light of South Carolina's willingness to elect "a queen" as their senior Senator. Regarding Cruz's attempts at winning Freedom Caucus endorsements, Trump replicated his New Hampshire strategy by getting under Senator Rand Paul's skin enough to convince the struggling candidate to stay in the race, and thereby prevent the congressional delegation from picking a horse in the primary.

Trump passed the latest test of his candidacy with flying colors.1 Carson and Bush, with their campaigns' high burn rates, were forced out of the race with their poor showings in the primary. Christie's momentum petered out, but he still managed to siphon votes that may have gone to Rubio. The New Hampshire runner-up had refilled his coffers enough in the preceding week to fund his campaign at least to Super Tuesday. With Governor Bevin of Kentucky throwing his weight behind Trump and successfully pressuring Paul to focus on his re-election efforts, that left Rubio as the only other opponent, resolving to oppose Trump "to the bitter end."

Trump mourned the loss of Dr. Carson from the campaign trail, and even paid for the expense of flying him out to appear on stage with Trump as he hit the campaign trail in the Super Tuesday states. Thus, few were shocked when Dr. Carson also endorsed the frontrunner, who was now approaching the lower fourties in opinion polling of candidate preference. Sensing that the end was high, many other endorsements from elected officials began to pour in for Trump, from all factions of the party. Trump paraded these humiliated officeholders on stage like trophies won in war. The SuperPACs continued their air war in the Super Tuesday states, but it had as little effectiveness in combating Trump as it did in New Hampshire and South Carolina. The boisterous mogul won every state except for Texas, Cruz's home state, and Arkansas. With Cruz's suspension of his campaign, most of the GOP had reluctantly acquiested to the takeover of their party. Rubio continued his quixotic effort for a few more weeks, but Trump pleasured in taking out a $20 million ad buy2 against the Florida Senator in his home state. With hopes of one day serving in elected office again, the looming prospect of a landslide loss proved effective at vanquishing Trump's one remaining opponent, clearing the way for a long, grueling general election campaign against Hillary Clinton.

1Primary results: Trump 34%, Cruz 26%, Rubio 13%, Carson 10%, Christie 6%, Paul 6%, Bush 5%
2The first and only major out-of-pocket expense of his campaign
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mencken
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2015, 07:20:26 PM »

Chapter Five: Hostile Takeover

Most Republican voters had acquiesced by this time to the inevitability of Trump's nomination. However, there was still a few grumblings among large Republican donors of trying to take over the delegate selection process in order to force a brokered convention.1 Although a few Republican officeholders gave their support to Trump's nomination, the majority withheld their endorsement until they obtained a better grasp of the situation. Trump, of course, was not going to take this lying down. He staged an elaborate national tour, with stops coinciding with the sites of the various county and state conventions, all but ensuring that Trump supporters would flock there and outnumber the more entrenched Republican forces. At one convention, an attempt to move the venue to the parking lot across the street was thwarted by fervent Trump supports blocking the exits until their preferred delegates were selected. Naturally, the media gravitated toward these shenanigans like flies on manure, and thus effectively gave Trump a six week-long Convention boost.

As the primary campaign shifted into general election mode, Trump's rhetoric increasingly shifted from the hot-button culture war issues that helped him win the primaries to populist economic policies that were not nearly as alienating to swing voters. Scarcely a day passed that Trump did not fervently denounce the Trans-Pacific Partnership and a tax system designed for the benefit of hedge-fund managers. Trump helped to bring his economic emphasis to the forefront with a series of media stunts, such as going to a WAL-MART and encouraging patrons to throw the Chinese-made products off the shelves. Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton sought in vain to redirect the conversation toward the identity politics that so defined Trump in 2015, but the media narrative was unobliging. Nobody cared anymore that Trump got nominated on a platform of deporting 11 million people; his arsonist tactics were much more entertaining at the moment.

(To be continued...)

1Ironically, rules designed in 2012 in response to supporters of Ron Paul attempting this same strategy made this significantly more difficult.
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ViaActiva
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2015, 01:57:21 PM »

This is disturbingly plausible, interested to see what happens next.
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mencken
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« Reply #5 on: November 28, 2015, 03:49:24 PM »

Sorry if you don't appreciate the sudden change in pace, but to be honest, Donald Trump's election is the least interesting idea I have lined up for this timeline (I think you can get a general impression of how it went based on my previous post), so this post is going to be a bit anticlimactic:



Businessman Donald J. Trump / Congresswoman Jaime Herrera-Beulter 51.1% 305
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton / Congressman Joaquin Castro 47.9% 233

General election CliffNotes:
  • Trump's VP pick extends an Olive Branch to Republican establishment, draws attention from immigration to economic populism. (especially pertinent given the recession of 2016)
  • Clinton tries in vain to make immigration an issue again, appears out of touch to swing voters.
  • Continued race riots make crime another general election issue, to Trump's advantage.
  • Much like the primary campaign, Trump does poorly in debates by conventional standards but inexplicably rises in the polls subsequently (including after the second debate in which Trump mentions his opponent's inability to 'satisfy' the last two presidents she has served under.)
  • The 'Donald will collapse eventually' mindset permeates the Acela Corridor all the way up to Election Day, to the point where media figures and politicians alike are shocked as the results pour in.
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mencken
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« Reply #6 on: December 22, 2015, 04:35:40 PM »

Chapter Six: Remaking America (Great)

The Washington establishment was utterly horrified by the outcome of the election. Prominent figures in both parties mulled possibilities to end the impending nightmare, from "discovering" uncounted ballots to outright cancelling the results. The conflagrations of the inner cities and college campuses only intensified with the election of a candidate who so infringed on their precious safe spaces. In light of this civil unrest, leading figures in the Obama administration pondered the possibility of declaring martial law, until law and order could be restored. This, however, was inconsistent with the "stand down" orders that the White House had consistently telegraphed to metropolitan and campus police forces.

Trump was not going to put up with any of this. Despite having already won the election, he announced his intent to hold even bigger campaign rallies, declaring that they would be "yyuugggee." These rallies, at first taking place in strongholds of Trump support, indeed featured more supporters than ever, with crowd counts consistently ranging in the high tens of thousands. The President-elect urged his supporters to bring their arms with them, in light of the dangerous domestic security situation unfolding in the country. The cable news media, which had once been more than happy to broadcast Trump's rallies during the primary campaign, blacked out any reference to Trump. However, supporters used radio and the internet to get the message across. The official videos displayed on Trump's website made sure to highlight the throngs of veterans in the audience, seemingly illustrating to the political establishment the futility of attempting a military solution to their dilemma.

Going into December, Trump began holding his rallies at ever more hostile locations, deliberately choosing urban and campus venues. Rioters predictably targeted these rallies, given Trump an opportunity to display the marked efficiency of his budding Deportation Force at eliminating troublemakers. These incidents of course made the news, but violent reactions were increasingly muted out of fear.

Trump made particular effort to promote his impending inauguration, saying that he would consider it a failure if there were not at least a million people in attendance (fully armed, of course). DC police were powerless to stop them, and much of the city sought refuge in Washington-Dulles airport. Outgoing President Obama unwisely delayed leaving the White House until it was surrounded by the Trump crowd, for which not even his Secret Security detail could save him. Trump delivered a highly-improvised Oath of Office just meters away from where his predecessor met a Qaddafi-esque fate.

To be continued...
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #7 on: December 22, 2015, 09:12:24 PM »

Can't wait to see who the Donald picks for his cabinet.
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BigVic
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« Reply #8 on: December 22, 2015, 10:23:33 PM »

This is going to be fun!
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mencken
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« Reply #9 on: December 23, 2015, 01:51:08 PM »

Continued...

President Trump's Cabinet picks were a mixed bag1. Granted, a large number of his picks were a continuation of his strategy of lending an olive branch to the ousted Republican Party apparatus, albeit in the most humiliating manner possible2. These nominations, along with that of Attorney General Jeff Sessions and even Treasury Secretary Carl Icahn, went through the Senate without controversy. Ted Cruz was notably absent from the President's Cabinet, although it is reported that the President assured the junior Senator from Texas that he had a more suitable role in mind for him. However, many of his picks, including Herman Cain for Defense, Sam Clovis for Agriculture, Joe Arpaio for DHS, and his own daughter and personal physician for State and HHS, respectively, gave President Trump a predictable firsthand encounter with congressional gridlock. The political commentariat speculated that this was fitting within Trump's Art of the DealTM strategy of asking for outlandish initial terms in order to get the actual desired outcome as a compromise. Surprisingly, they were right for once, but not in the manner they had anticipated.

In the wake of Hillary Clinton's surprising loss, many Democratic leaders had begun to coalesce around newly-elected Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) as the natural heir apparent to take on Trump in 2020. Thus, few were surprised when she became the Senator most vocal about filibustering the new Cabinet picks. This move played right into Trump's hands.

San Francisco denizens awoke on February morning to find sixty thousand U.S. Army troops patrolling their streets, stopping individuals at random demanding to see proof of citizenship or legal residency. Access to virtually every public service, from banks to restaurants to office buildings to subways, could not be accomplished without proving one's right to be in the country two or three times over. Thousands of individuals exploiting San Francisco's infamous sanctuary city policy were detained and temporarily stored in municipal jails until they could be hastily deported. City life virtually ground to the halt as a consequence of the constant harassment, costing perhaps hundreds of millions of dollars in productivity. Many hoped that the justice system would put an end to this legally dubious method of immigration law enforcement, but the physical obstruction to access to the Ninth Circuit building made the implementation of such checks and balances slow, to say the least.

California's rising junior Senator expressed her sincere outrage on every cable news network that would let her. However, the shrewd President preempted her appearance on the Rachel Maddow Show with an impromptu address to the nation, explaining that San Francisco epitomizes the sanctuary city policy and must tolerate these federal measures so long as they have such policies. Toward the end of the address, Trump made a specific aside to the illegal aliens and anchor babies of the country, warning that they would be deported swiftly to an undisclosed location if caught, but would be given special consideration if they voluntarily turned themselves in to DHS.

The Trump-Harris spat largely ground to the stalemate as San Francisco endured domestic occupation and the legal system continued at its glacial pace. The tide of the war shifted suddenly when al-Jazeera obtained footage of dozens of Spanish-speaking children being parachuted from US Army planes into Raqqa, Syria. Trump took the opportunity to clarify that those detained by DHS are automatically "volunteered" as DREAMers, and are earning their legal residency by serving this great country by fighting ISIS terrorists. The demoralized Senate Democrats finally folded on the nominee issue, approving all of Trump's Cabinet picks smoothly, and the San Francisco siege was lifted in late March, although it would hardly be the last city subjected to such a fate.

1 Possibly the greatest understatement in the history of historiography
2 Commerce Secretary Perry, HUD Secretary Romney, Transportation Secretary Christie, Energy Secretary Bush, etc.
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mencken
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« Reply #10 on: December 27, 2015, 10:20:19 AM »

Chapter Seven: Night of the Long Knives


The Deportation Force was more prevalent than ever, conducting unannounced raids of virtually every element of American society, and promptly deporting those would could not prove their right to be here. However, these methods were not always effective at sorting citizens from noncitizens, which some of Trump's more cynical media critics have attributed to malice rather than inefficiency1. Notable targets included Telemundo anchor Jorge Ramos, Congressman Luiz Gutierrez, Justice Sonya Sotomayor, and Vice-President Jaime Herrera-Beutler. The last target on this list was particularly convenient, in that it removed a potential threat to Trump's Presidency and allowed the mogul-president to fulfill an outstanding obligation.

President Trump humbly2 requested to both Houses of Congress that they hastily ratify his pick to be the next Vice-President, Ted Cruz. Congressional leaders, however, had other priorities in mind. Speaker Paul Ryan initiated impeachment proceedings against Trump in light of his gross disregard for due process of law. This motivated Trump to appear in front of the House of Representatives personally, with thousands of his supporters accompanying him in the stands, and deliver an impromptu tirade against the Speaker, excepts of which are contained below:

Where were these jokers when Obama was in office. They said they wanted to get rid of Obamacare, Obama says, 'Fine, we'll stop funding the government,' and they caved! They caved. Our leaders are truly stupid people. Well, guess what - I'll do the same thing! Our stupid leaders have told us what it takes for them to cry uncle, so why not do it?...

...Think about it - what's Paul Ryan's motivation here? Well, if you look at this Constitution he keeps harping about, you see that if they get rid of the President, and there's no Vice-President, then the Speaker of the House gets to be President. That's right! If he gets rid of me, Paul Ryan gets to be President! Well, I think we should get rid of Paul Ryan!...

...I tell you, in all of my other companies, which have been enormously successful thank you, we did not have this separation between the Board of Directors and the CEO. Things just go a lot smoother when I get to run both, there's no incompetent middlemen like wanna-be tough guy Paul Ryan to deal with...


Trump's verbal battering of the Speaker of the House proved an important catalyst for the motion to vacate the Speakership to proceed. The votes of Tea Party Republicans and the Democratic caucus proved sufficient for the petition to pass with flying colors. Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi then urged members of her caucus to abstain from the subsequent Speaker vote, delusionally clinging to the belief that acquiescing to Donald Trump obtaining unchecked authority over two branches of government would help her win the 2018 midterms.

While getting the House, a body with significant mutual resentment between leadership and a majority of the Republican caucus, to sign off on Trump's coup was an easy task, the patrician Senate was more hesitant to make their most rabble-rousing member the administrative leader of their body. Unlike Pelosi, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer knew better than to make Ted Cruz Vice-President, and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell certainly knew better. Although the Trumpslide had swept a few more Cruz disciples into the body, such as Kelli Ward, Greg Brannon, and Rob Maness, this was still very insufficient to topple McConnell.

To be continued...

1There had been discussions within the Trump Cabinet to start shutting down critical press organizations, but Trump refused this option, albeit more out of a calculation that he thrives off of attacking the media than any concern for the First Amendment.
2Or, at least as humbly as Trump could be.
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mencken
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« Reply #11 on: January 19, 2016, 07:41:05 PM »

Chapter Eight: The Wall


Rampant of deportations of everyone even remotely connected to Latin America had a predictable effect. Within a matter of months, Mexico was swamped with millions of refugees from the Northern border, many of whom were in fact US citizens. Media outlets covered the humanitarian crisis, but this failed to provoke leniency from Mexico's Northern neighbor. With the refugee flood came vast shortages of basic resources in trying to handle the crisis. Crime skyrocketed, and even the affluent areas of Mexico noticed drastic declines in their quality of life. Seeking to address the crisis, Mexican President Nieto announced his intention to start policing the Northern border more effectively.

This move played right into President/Speaker/Trump International Chairman Donald Trump's hands. In yet another impromptu press conference, the Donald announced his intention to help Mexico in their time of need, and felt certain that the two nations could reach a compromise that both would find acceptable. "I did promise that I would make Mexico pay for the Wall, but I believe there are ways to make their payment less onerous on the good people of Mexico. After all, I love the Mexican people."

Trump and Nieto met in San Diego for three days to discuss the crisis and how the two nations could respond to it effectively. At the conclusion of the conference, the two leaders presented their Treaty for Reinforced US-Mexico Prosperity, although Nieto had the look of many of Trump's former war trophies. It was resolved that Mexico had commited a grave injustice against America for having sent millions of their rapists, murders, and some good people illegally to America, and it is only fair that they have to pay for it. Nevertheless, it was unfortunate for Mexico to have to endear the same fate. Thus, to avoid flooding Mexico with their refuse, the illegal aliens currently within the United States would be exempted from deportation provided that they turned themselves in to the Deportation Force within 30 days. These illegals would be allowed to settle in a "Safe Zone" within 20 miles of the US-Mexico border, where they would be hired to construct the WallTM. While Mexico would not directly pay for the Wall, its construction would be reimbursed by subjecting these minimum-wage workers to the highest tax bracket.

Nieto accepted these conditions, mostly because his only alternative was a continued flood of millions of poor migrants into his country. However, this agreement was treated with as much excitement as the Germans treated Versailles, with much of the country calling for Nieto's head for agreeing to such a humiliating monstrosity. On the other hand, Trump's brilliant maneuver silenced his domestic critics, reeling in utter confusion at the leader's effortless achievement of the most absurd aspect of his platform.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #12 on: January 20, 2016, 06:34:03 PM »
« Edited: January 20, 2016, 07:12:36 PM by Simfan34 »

I am loving this. The best/worst thing about it is that it isn't entirely ridiculous. Maybe 25-30% ridiculous, but I could see Trump actually doing most of what you describe.

Sending the National Guard into decadent San Francisco and setting up random checkpoints in retaliation for their "sanctuary city" status? "decisive action" that would be lapped right up by Trump's base in "Middle America". House raids and rounding up undocumented immigrants? The same thing. You could even film it and put it on television-- watch To Catch an Illegal and see real ICE officers, on the front lines, as they heroically track down and deport dangerous and criminal aliens to make America safe again! Brought to you by Trump Productions, even!

Flooding Mexico with returnees until they basically cry "uncle" and want to pay for Trump's wall is nothing less than a political masterstroke. I'm not even sure that Trump, politically astute has he has been till now, would actually be able to come up with such a plan. But if he did, I could definitely see it working. Mexican immigration restrictions are, at least on paper, stricter than American ones, and they have enough of an illegal immigration problem in the south as is. Throw in hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of refugees overwhelming Mexico's already-unstable and cartel-ridden northern states, and it's only logical that their government will start to see Trump's giant, Israeli-style "security barrier" as being less costly than the alternative.

In fact, I'd go one step further-- rather than pay the detained immigrants minimum wage, I could plausibly see Trump arranging for them to be sentenced to imprisonment with hard labour, working on the wall for no wage! Demanding Mexico only pay for the wall would actually be letting them off relatively easy; with convict labor, the bill is likely to be something more like just $2-$3 billion. That not that bad for a country like Mexico, which has a $350 billion government budget, and it is peanuts compared to the cost of Trump's plan to deport all 11 million undocumented immigrants in two years, which is supposed to be anywhere from $100-$300 billion, depending on who you ask.

e: Looks like Arizona has beat me to the whole "build a border fence with convict labor" thing. So has Hungary, apparently. Some right-wing talk radio guy has already even had the whole idea to "build a border fence with illegal immigrant convict labor". Them today, Trump tomorrow!
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Simfan34
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« Reply #13 on: January 20, 2016, 06:57:18 PM »
« Edited: January 20, 2016, 06:59:56 PM by Simfan34 »

I suppose the economic edge of mass deportation could be blunted by the massive increase in ICE officers and Border Police this would require. Considering that Trump's timeframe calls for deporting as many immigrants in a month as we normally do in a year, I can see Trump likewise increasing the number of immigration officials twelve-fold, which would create something like 220,000 jobs for real, honest, Americans.

Indeed, I am looking forward to seeing what you have in store for Trumpenomics. I imagine it can only strengthen the Latin American strongman parallel further, as Trump imposes sweeping protectionist barriers and vastly inflates the size of the public sector in an attempt to counteract the effects of his other policies. I could easily see him creating a WPA-style programme that employs millions of people to work on public works of dubious merit while forming another programme, probably semi-coercive, to push young people into doing the sort of manual labor formerly done by undocumented immigrants.

I could see it now: "All of these people that are going to come in new, they've never worked — they've never vote, they don’t care about anything other than themselves, and what they're posting on Twitter, what they're posting on Instagram — I love Twitter, I love Instagram, I love them — but I’ll tell you what, these people are so self-absorbed, these millennials — too many — we're going to make them work! That’s why we have to make them work, because they’re not right, they don't know about hard work — the value of hard work. We have to make things right — we have to make things right! The media, they all said 'what will we do do without the illegal immigrants, what will we do!' I'll tell you what we're going to do — we're going to get the young people working. We have more than enough people to make up for the illegals — we need to get them working."

(Christ, when you actually read what he says, verbatim, Trump is even worse at speaking succinctly than I am!)

I think what you have is actually quite realistic. The only thing I is that, while I could see how a maelstrom of hyper-partisanship, craven political calculation, and unruly backbenchers could result in Trump failing to be impeached in the House, I can't see how Trump could successfully rid himself of his  Vice President by illegally deporting her-- maybe by some other kind of manufactured scandal. Then again, I may just be taking all this too seriously-- which why I suspect your timeline is more realistic you've actually given yourself credit for. Now I'm tempted to write a serious-yet-dystopian "worst case" take on a Trump presidency!
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mencken
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« Reply #14 on: January 21, 2016, 05:32:44 PM »

I figured paying Mexican indentured servants ~$4/hour to work on the wall would be a more palatable deal for the Mexican government than to have their nationals working as literal slaves (the latter was probably Trump's initial offer).

You have contributed great ideas which I will seek to incorporate in the Trump domestic program. I was thinking of incorporating ideas that one would, shall we say, anticipate from a real estate developer-turned-strongman.
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mencken
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« Reply #15 on: February 05, 2016, 01:38:21 PM »

The Wall (Continued...)1

Trump's immigration policy was enormously effective, with nearly fifteen million people2 voluntarily reporting their undocumented status and hence volunteering to work on the Great Wall of TrumpTM. However, the removal of virtually the entire illegal immigrant population from all but a very narrow strip of land was naturally not without its opponents. College campuses across the country were filled with sit-ins of student protesters decrying this inhumane policy, causing much disruption to university administrators. The protests were too ubiquitous for the Deportation Force to suppress with a few Kent State reenactments. Closer to home, businesses performed a more subtle protest of the policy, including two price tags on all of their products, one reflecting the pre-2017 cost of the item, and the other noting the 150-200% markup as a result of having most of their labor force deported. Ordinarily, Trump would use the opportunity to stir up populist rage, citing the opposition to his policies from the big corporate lobbies as proof of his effectiveness. However, fighting a two-front war against both the students and the capitalists was a tall order.

Political chameleon that he was, the President/Speaker/Chairman managed to thread the needle with a proposal that pleased virtually everyone3. Trump called a special session of Congress, in which the chief executive decried the exorbitant tuition that ordinary students were being saddled with as a price of their college education. He averred that the recent widespread protests were merely a manifestation of this frustration with rising costs. Noting that secondary education was placing decreased emphasis on vocational skills, and that many college graduates were having difficulty using their bachelor's degree, Trump unleashed a proposal, whereby students could earn not only free tuition, but also a limited number of credit hours4 for "vocational education" from certain private companies. These companies, in turn, would compensate the university at a minimum wage-exempted rate for their "educational services."

Secondarily, Trump admitted that he indeed was ashamed at the poor conditions that the indentured laborers were facing in the Safe Zone. The Master Negotiator conceded that the border region was simply too underdeveloped at this point in time to accommodate fifteen million laborers, and that their poor living conditions would be a setback toward construction of the Wall. In light of this, Trump announced another plan to construct hundreds of new high-rise buildings along the Mexican border, fully equipped to house families of six in first-world conditions. Priority hiring for this project would go to the unemployed, the underemployed, and of course, "the vets." Trump ended his address assuring that the brave builders of the Wall would be given the "best treatment in the world under this plan," and that these plans would "bring millions of jobs back to this country."


1Due credit goes to Simfan for creative inspiration for this chapter.
2Right-wing pundits delighted in reporting this figure, as it seemingly confirmed their view that the previously reported figure of eleven million was a gross underestimate.
3Except academia, although nobody really cares about them.
4Under pain of withholding federal funding from non-compliant universities.
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cxs018
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« Reply #16 on: February 05, 2016, 04:51:59 PM »

This is absolutely terrifying. The worst part is this might legitimately happen.
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mencken
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« Reply #17 on: March 26, 2016, 07:34:34 AM »

Chapter Nine: Trump International

Having accomplished his primary domestic policy objective within a matter of months, Trump next turned his focus to improving America's standing overseas. While improving the trade deficit with China, Japan, Korea, and Vietnam had long been a priority for Mr. Trump1, Trump seems to have thus far shied away from directly confronting these nations, instead choosing to first mend relations with Russia.

The resourceful President quickly found a method for killing two birds with one stone. During one of the myriad of press conferences held regarding the deplorable treatment of detained immigrants and college students, Trump made a non sequitur implying that their indentured servitude was justified in light of the massive amounts of money America was spending defending "ungrateful nations like Turkey, Albania, and Estonia"2. A few days later, Trump commissioned Secretary Cain to release a detailed3 policy paper proposing that NATO countries would either maintain a 40% trade surplus with the United States within three months or forfeit Article V protection4. Europe erupted into a collective uproar at these requirements, with European leaders insisting that this paper was an insult not meant to be taken seriously and Eurosceptic parties calling for dissolution of NATO5.

With both sides having laid out their bets, Trump then proceeded to do as Trump does. Having initiated another nationwide speaking tour, Trump launched into one of his characteristic tangents:

...Now, I love the people of Estonia, love them, but what is the deal with Narva!? This is supposedly part of Estonia, but all the people there speak Russian! I mean, that's not fair! Estonia's acting like Mexico here, forcing themselves on these Russians, taking their jobs (and the Russians are good people.) And look how that turned out for Mexico! I'm just saying, Estonia should really negotiate a good deal with the Russians, else the Russians might start to get upset that Estonia's leaders (and they have really smart leaders, smarter than ours) are screwing them...

...I mean, Estonia's only been a country for what, ten years? And they think they are better than Russia?...


Unsurprisingly, pro-Russian "guerillas"6 arose and conquered the country within a matter of weeks. Conincidentally, exports to Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Romania, France, and Albania skyrocketed in subsequent months, with most of the American-made products being immediately discarded upon arrival. Prominently, Chancellor Angela Merkel, facing large internal dissent from Alternative for Germany, announced Germany's exit from the long-standing mutual defense pact, insisting that Europe was now economically and militarily powerful enough to defend herself. Historically speaking, this was not a good sign.

(To be continued)...

1One of the few consistent policy positions Trump has held over the years.
2The NATO countries cited as examples were coincidentally either majority Muslim or too obscure for most Americans to know were not.
3Two to three pages
4For some reason, the Czech Republic and Slovenia were both exempted from this mandate.
5The irony of this position was lost on all involved parties.
6The guerillas in Narva had surprisingly sophisticated military technology.
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pagan_alliance
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« Reply #18 on: March 31, 2016, 02:36:42 PM »

Great timeline! I registered for this forum just so I could comment on it. It's been remarkably accurate so far. You, sir or madam, have a gift!

Some particularly impressive predictions:

Quote
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This is pretty close to what actually happened over the last few months, between Trump's popularity in the 40s (something many pundits thought impossible), Trump nearly sweeping Super Tuesday, Rubio losing Florida and dropping out, Carson endorsing Trump, and the parading of humiliated officeholders (Chris Christie?). The only thing that didn't happen was Cruz's withdrawal from the race.

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This is startlingly similar to what happened in Chicago a few weeks back. Especially considering it was written three months ago! Rachel Maddow suggested precisely what you predicted here about Trump intentionally holding rallies in hostile places just so he could get a reaction.

Looking forward to Part 10!

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Deblano
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« Reply #19 on: April 02, 2016, 10:42:25 AM »

Great timeline! I registered for this forum just so I could comment on it. It's been remarkably accurate so far. You, sir or madam, have a gift!

Some particularly impressive predictions:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.


This is pretty close to what actually happened over the last few months, between Trump's popularity in the 40s (something many pundits thought impossible), Trump nearly sweeping Super Tuesday, Rubio losing Florida and dropping out, Carson endorsing Trump, and the parading of humiliated officeholders (Chris Christie?). The only thing that didn't happen was Cruz's withdrawal from the race.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is startlingly similar to what happened in Chicago a few weeks back. Especially considering it was written three months ago! Rachel Maddow suggested precisely what you predicted here about Trump intentionally holding rallies in hostile places just so he could get a reaction.

Looking forward to Part 10!



I agree with that. It's very scary how accurate this timeline is at times. Could this be a vision of things to come?.....
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Golfman76
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« Reply #20 on: April 03, 2016, 04:02:22 PM »

Great timeline! I registered for this forum just so I could comment on it. It's been remarkably accurate so far. You, sir or madam, have a gift!

Some particularly impressive predictions:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.


This is pretty close to what actually happened over the last few months, between Trump's popularity in the 40s (something many pundits thought impossible), Trump nearly sweeping Super Tuesday, Rubio losing Florida and dropping out, Carson endorsing Trump, and the parading of humiliated officeholders (Chris Christie?). The only thing that didn't happen was Cruz's withdrawal from the race.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is startlingly similar to what happened in Chicago a few weeks back. Especially considering it was written three months ago! Rachel Maddow suggested precisely what you predicted here about Trump intentionally holding rallies in hostile places just so he could get a reaction.

Looking forward to Part 10!



I agree with that. It's very scary how accurate this timeline is at times. Could this be a vision of things to come?.....

spooky
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swky_0rn
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« Reply #21 on: April 08, 2016, 12:54:00 PM »

please  contine  forword!
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mencken
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« Reply #22 on: April 18, 2016, 03:43:39 PM »

Chapter Ten: Triumph of the Will


Having accomplished his entire policy agenda (most of which was considered impossible) within months of assuming power, President Donald Trump fell into a malaise lasting several weeks. He had literally become "bored of winning." Nevertheless, Trump was never one to avoid picking a fight for little apparent reason. The Leader soon regained his stamina and began touring the country once again, returning to denouncing the nations of the Western Pacific Rim. He focused particular attention on South Korea, frequently making the non sequitur observation that "they are killing us in trade, and yet they get to host the next Winter Olympics?! This is insane!"

Soon afterward, negotiations through special diplomatic channels1 facilitated the first ever visit to South Korea's northern adversary from a sitting U.S. President. In Pyongyang, Trump held a rally that made his rallies in Huntsville and Phoenix look as barren as a Jeb Bush townhall2. In between references to how much he "loves North Korea" and jokes that Kim Jong Un ought to try out one of Trump International's golf courses, Trump once again segued into bashing of South Korea, frightening the international community:

I think South Korea's getting a yuge leg up, first with killing us on trade, then with getting these Olympics. Now, I've said before that South Korea and Japan ought to have nukes. Let me make once thing clear, if they don't do something to make things more fair, for both of us, they are going to get nukes - and soon! Like, 72 hours soon!

After which Trump rolled out a gag nuclear football to yuge applause from the audience, all bearing 다시 한국은 큰 확인 hats. There were a few hecklers in the audience, but Trump ordered North Korean authorities to shoot them on site before Kim Jong Un could even lift a finger.

Having demonstrated himself to be a loose cannon with the Mexican deportations and the Estonian Crisis, Trump immediately received a phone call from South Korean President Park Geun-hye requesting a meeting. While the meeting took place in private without reporters, the specifics were quickly (if unreliably) disseminated by Trump himself upon his flight landing in San Diego, with a used Mission Accomplished banner in the background.

This lady was like3, "We want deal! Will do anything for deal" And you know, I thought, "Well, its been what, sixteen years since America had an Olympics? That would certainly be nice, but our economy is hurting right now, because of our incompetent leaders. South Korea's doing pretty well right now, since they've taken all our jobs, I'm sure you guys have money to pay for our Olympics." And she said yes!!! You see, when you are respected around the world, other countries will do what you ask them to! So guess what! The Winter Olympics are coming to San Diego!

And thus Trump stole the Olympics from South Korea and made them pay for it. The cost was especially prohibitive in light of the massive amount of snow that needed to be purchased in order to make San Diego of all places suitable for a Winter Olympics. Nevertheless, the games afforded Trump the opportunity to display the efficiency of his Deportation Force and his indentured Wall-builders to the world. Several countries boycotted the games, including South Korea, Japan, Chinese Taipei, Mexico, El Salvador, France4, and Germany.

1Dennis Rodman
2A direct quote from said rally
3It was at this point in the "impromptu" rally that the President put his fingers at the ends of his eyes and stretched them.
4Now under the leadership of Marie Le Pen, who exploited popular frustration with paying tribute to the United States to oust Francois Hollande.
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beaver2.0
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« Reply #23 on: April 19, 2016, 09:54:26 AM »

Interesting timeline.  Please continue.
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Golfman76
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« Reply #24 on: May 14, 2016, 01:42:30 PM »

bump
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