Flashback on polling in the early primary states

[Mr. Morden]

As a public service, I went back through the archives…

Four years ago, this was the most recent Iowa poll:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1920111019163

Cain 37%
Romney 27%
Paul 12%
Gingrich 8%
Perry 6%
Bachmann 4%
Santorum 3%
Huntsman 1%

And the most recent New Hampshire poll:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3320111017034

Romney 39%
Cain 24%
Paul 11%
Bachmann 5%
Gingrich 5%
Huntsman 5%
Perry 2%

Eight years ago in Iowa:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=19200710141

Dems

Clinton 28%
Obama 23%
Edwards 20%
Richardson 9%
Biden 6%

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=19200710141

GOP

Romney 27%
Giuliani 13%
Huckabee 12%
Thompson 10%
McCain 5%
Brownback 4%
Paul 4%

Eight years ago in New Hampshire:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3320071009008

Dems

Clinton 43%
Obama 21%
Edwards 12%
Richardson 8%
Biden 3%
Kucinich 3%

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=33200710090

GOP

Romney 26%
Giuliani 20%
McCain 17%
Thompson 10%
Huckabee 7%

And I’m not going to pull up the individual polls, but at this point in 2003, Dean and Gephardt were tied in Iowa in the mid-20s, while Kerry was at about 10%.  And in NH, Dean had a double digit lead on Kerry, who was in second place.

[eric82oslo]

Just goes to show that voters don't pay all that much attention to the race till about January.