Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread

[trebor204]

Based on my calculations, turnout is around 62%

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Harper to speak in a short while.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

CTV projects Mulcair will win re-election in Outremont.  So he could stay on as leader, if the NDP still wants him.

Seems like they will still accept him looking at reporters talking to NDP representatives.

[RogueBeaver]

Harper will resign as leader, nothing about staying on as an MP.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I wonder what Duceppe will do. He undoubtedly saved the Bloc from annihilation and got a healthy amount of seats (although, crucially, no official party status) but didn't manage to get elected himself.

[Vosem]

How are Liberals leading in Kelowna-Lake Country? Isn't that one of the most Conservative seats in the BC Interior?

[RI]

Popular vote results by province
Newfoundland: Liberal 64.5%, NDP 21.1%, Conservative 10.3%, Green 1.1%
Prince Edward Island: Liberal 58.3%, Conservative 19.3%, NDP 16.0%, Green 6.0%
Nova Scotia: Liberal 61.9%, Conservative 17.9%, NDP 16.4%, Green 3.4%
New Brunswick: Liberal 51.6%, Conservative 25.4%, NDP 18.3%, Green 4.7%
Quebec: Liberal 35.3%, NDP 24.8%, BQ 19.8%, Conservative 17.3%, Green 2.2%
Ontario: Liberal 44.3%, Conservative 35.7%, NDP 16.4%, Green 2.9%
Manitoba: Liberal 43.7%, Conservative 39.3%, NDP 12.6%, Green 3.3%
Saskatchewan: Conservative 49.4%, Liberal 24.2%, NDP 23.9%, Green 2.1%
Alberta: Conservative 60.4%, Liberal 23.9%, NDP 11.1%, Green 2.6%
British Columbia: Liberal 35.5%, Conservative 32.4%, NDP 23.9%, Green 7.7%

Yukon: Liberal 51.3%, Conservative 26.2%, NDP 19.3%, Green 3.2%
Northwest Territories: Liberal 54.5%, NDP 25.4%, Conservative 17.5%, Green 2.6%
Nunavut: Liberal 48.1%, NDP 26.0%, Conservative 24.2%, Green 1.7%

[Panhandle Progressive]

How are Liberals leading in Kelowna-Lake Country? Isn't that one of the most Conservative seats in the BC Interior?

They are not only leading but the projected winner. Since that riding was created it has been extremely Conservative. This is a huge pickup for the Libs.

[Vosem]

How are Liberals leading in Kelowna-Lake Country? Isn't that one of the most Conservative seats in the BC Interior?

They are not only leading but the projected winner. Since that riding was created it has been extremely Conservative. This is a huge pickup for the Libs.

Yeah, all the patterns I see make sense; the Liberals have surged in the BC Interior, but for whatever reason the surge seems to have been much, much stronger in this riding than literally anywhere else. Why is that? Also, CBC still has Kelowna as TCTC, although the Libs are up 6 points.

[Holmes]

Weird things happen in Canada when a party is winning by a large margin.

[Nyvin]

Weird things happen in Canada when a party is winning by a large margin.

Is 187 seats a large margin?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Gosh, this speech.

[Holmes]

Weird things happen in Canada when a party is winning by a large margin.

Is 187 seats a large margin?

You're not four years old, you don't need someone else to tell you if something is a large margin or not.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Weird things happen in Canada when a party is winning by a large margin.

Is 187 seats a large margin?

The Libs will finish with about 55% of all seats available, roughly 40% of the popular vote. Winning a majority government was unexpected tonight since not a single established pollster (that I'm aware of) predicted a majority. I believe the highest seat count projection was 149.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Did Trudeau let anyone, you know, actually read this speech before he delivered it? It's the same empty platitudes over and over and over. You'd think someone would have told him to streamline it a little.

[Vosem]

Justin Trudeau is the Largest Ham I've listened to in a long time.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Justin Trudeau is the Largest Ham I've listened to in a long time.

See now why I so completely despise him?

[ag]

NDP is creeping up. They are on 42 in the latest projection. A bad night for them, but a bit less of a disaster than even an hour ago.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Well, the next couple years will be fun to watch in Canada, I wonder how Trudeau will work with our President and government.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Well, the next couple years will be fun to watch in Canada, I wonder how Trudeau will work with our President and government.

It will be a strong North American coalition over the next year and then over at least the next four beyond that, since Hillary and Justin will be closely aligned as well.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

A liberal called "David McGuinty" has been elected in Ontario. Any relation?

Also Nieto-Obama-Trudeau are a pretty hot combo in North America.

[RogueBeaver]

Yes, David is Dalton's brother.

[trebor204]

Protected Turnout around 66%

[adma]

Re Kelowna, there was a strategic deal-making with the Greens, who withdrew their candidate.  (Also, there's a bit of a forgotten/suppressed subliminal Lib streak, going back to Judy Tyabji days in the 90s.)

[ag]

Seems like for the first time in a Canadian election the winning party gets over 6 mln votes.