Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread

[Boston Bread]

Holy Christ, Judy Foote in Bonavista won 82% of the vote!!

My model put her at 76%... considering I underestimated the LPC by 10% in the Atlantic I'd say those results make sense to me, as impressive as it is.
She would also have the largest vote percent of any candidate; Battle River-Crowfoot gave the CPC "only" 81% (84% or so last time?).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What seats had the largest swing? And the lowest winning percentage? I'm playing with the Google results trying to see what comes up.

[Holmes]

Try looking in the Atlantic for biggest swing. Maybe somewhere in New Brunswick or Nova Scotia.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

There was a 37pt swing to the Liberals in Acadie Bathurst. That's impressive.

[andrew_c]

The Liberals have gained 150 seats compared to the last election.  That is the biggest seat gain since Confederation, beating the previous record of 108 seats gained by Brian Mulroney's PCs in the 1984 election.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

The Liberals have gained 150 seats compared to the last election.  That is the biggest seat gain since Confederation, beating the previous record of 108 seats gained by Brian Mulroney's PCs in the 1984 election.

Historic comeback for the Liberals tonight...and that's from an NDP voter.

[Leftbehind]

The problem for NDP is that not only has Mulcair's (and fellow Blairites) platform comprehensively failed and completely unwound their historic breakthrough, but that even if they return to left-opposition to distinguish themselves (as clearly the Canadian electorate don't see them as the best vehicle for liberal policies), in the short term they've lost the authenticity and consistency to lend weight to their opposition, and will even appear opportunistic (they just morph into liberals at the first sniff of potential etc).  What a waste.

[rbt48]

It's amazing to me how fast the Canadian's count their votes.  With a population pretty close to the state of California, the vote is pretty much counted in less than 12 hours.  California seems to take three weeks or longer to get all the votes tallied.

Well, better stated, I guess what is amazing is how slow the vote counting process is in California (and Washington and Oregon).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Three seats in Saskatchewan? Yay

Amused to see that the sole Winnipeg Dipper (against the gain grain by 51 votes even as Winnipeg Centre was lost: I predicted this peoples) is literally Bill Blaikie's son.

[jaichind]

It's amazing to me how fast the Canadian's count their votes.  With a population pretty close to the state of California, the vote is pretty much counted in less than 12 hours.  California seems to take three weeks or longer to get all the votes tallied.

Well, better stated, I guess what is amazing is how slow the vote counting process is in California (and Washington and Oregon).

Do not forget Westchester County NY where sometimes final results will not be out until 2 weeks later.

[adma]

Well, the States also have that weird "provisional ballot" thing going.  Canada has none of that...

[DC Al Fine]

Newfoundland has an election scheduled for Nov. 30. It will be prime Trudeau honeymoon time and the Liberals shall win a landslide.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I note that Beloeil-Chambly is an NDP hold. Hah.

[Nyvin]

Will the Liberal Party legalize Marijuana in Canada?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

There was a 37pt swing to the Liberals in Acadie Bathurst. That's impressive.

Scratch that +40 swing in St Johns East.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You get absurd swings like that in Canada more or less all the time.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Does anybody have a blank constituency map?

[Boston Bread]

Does anybody have a blank constituency map?

Search here, Smid has what you're looking for.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=173975.250

[Barnes]

Turnout is up seven points from 2011 to sit 68%.

[platypeanArchcow]

Kenora is ruining the orange blob around Hudson Bay.  Really screwing up the map there.

[MichaelRbn]

Apples and oranges comparison on the whole vote counting thing.  Last night each riding had to count votes for a single race.  In a typical American election each jurisdiction is counting multiple races from president and Congress through state level offices all the way down to dog catcher.  Not saying we Americans don't need to get our act better together on the whole election administration thing, but it's not a valid comparison.

[VPH]

I wonder how many ridings the NDP lost because of a Green snatching away NDP voters.

[Boston Bread]

I wonder how many ridings the NDP lost because of a Green snatching away NDP voters.

Greens didn't snatch much in the way of anything this time around. I'll give you Bruce Hyer's seat in Thunder Bay but I can't think of any others.
Edit: nevermind apparently NDP+Green < Liberal in Thunder Bay Superior North

[JerryArkansas]

Has anyone started a results map yet.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Newfoundland: Lib 64.5 (7 seats), NDP 21.0, Con 10.3, Greens 1.1
Nova Scotia: Lib 61.0 (11 seats), Con 17.9, NDP 16.4, Greens 3.4
Prince Edward Island: Lib 58.3 (4 seats), Con 19.3, NDP 16.0, Greens 6.0
New Brunswick: Lib 51.6 (10 seats), Con 25.3, NDP 18.3, Greens 4.6
Quebec: Lib 35.7 (40 seats), NDP 25.4 (16 seats), BQ 19.3 (10 seats), Con 16.7 (12 seats), Greens 2.3
Ontario: Lib 44.8 (80 seats), Con 35.0 (33 seats), NDP 16.6 (8 seats), Greens 2.9
Manitoba: Lib 44.6 (7 seats), Con 37.3 (5 seats), NDP 13.8 (2 seats), Greens 3.2
Saskatchewan: Con 48.5 (10 seats), NDP 25.1 (3 seats), Lib 23.9 (1 seat), Greens 2.1
Alberta: Con 59.5 (29 seats), Lib 24.6 (4 seats), NDP 11.6 (1 seat), Greens 2.5
British Columbia: Lib 35.2 (17 seats), Con 30.0 (10 seats), NDP 25.9 (14 seats), Greens 8.2 (1 seat)

Liberals won all three seats in the Territories.