Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread

[Holmes]

Looks like that poster who thought the Greens would win out on Vancouver Island was wrong.

[Krago]

Nine candidates successfully won a seat from another party, despite their party dropping in support in the riding (comparing the 2011 notional results with the 2015 actual figures):

Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River: Georgina Jolibois (NDP)
Elmwood--Transcona: Daniel Blaikie (NDP)
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup: Bernard Généreux (Cons)
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères: Xavier Barsalou-Duval (BQ)
Port Moody--Coquitlam: Fin Donnelly (NDP)
Courtenay--Alberni: Gord Johns (NDP)
South Okanagan--West Kootenay: Richard Cannings (NDP)
North Island--Powell River: Rachel Blaney (NDP)
Kootenay--Columbia: Wayne Stetski (NDP)

The Conservatives went up in share of vote in 27 ridings (42 in Quebec) and down in 291.
The Liberals went up in 337 ridings and down in 1 (Victoria).
The NDP went up in 13 ridings and down in 325.
The BQ went up in 15 ridings and down in 63.
The Greens went up in 103 ridings and down in 235.

 

[Antonio the Sixth]

After all is said and done, it looks like the polls did a pretty good job after all. Apart from Ekos, they all had Libs at 38-40, Tories at 30-32, and NDP around 20, which is about what they got. Pretty impressive, considering the precedents.

[Vosem]

The Conservatives went up in share of vote in 27 ridings (42 in Quebec) and down in 291.

You mean 47, not 27, yes? And, out of curiosity, where were the 5 ridings outside of Quebec where the Conservatives improved?

[DC Al Fine]

The Conservatives went up in share of vote in 27 ridings (42 in Quebec) and down in 291.

You mean 47, not 27, yes? And, out of curiosity, where were the 5 ridings outside of Quebec where the Conservatives improved?

Markham-Unionville (+4) Mostly Chinese suburb of Toronto. Tories have done well with the Chinese lately.
Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan (+15) Right wing independent did very well in 2011.

Not sure about the other two.

[Hatman 🍁]

After all is said and done, it looks like the polls did a pretty good job after all. Apart from Ekos, they all had Libs at 38-40, Tories at 30-32, and NDP around 20, which is about what they got. Pretty impressive, considering the precedents.

Yes, but we NAILED the seat forecast. That is, we I did better than anyone else (82%).



82% is still terrible tbh though

[adma]

Wondering if there's some booby prize for the worst result for an incumbent MP: ex-NDP J-F Larose for FD in La Pointe-de-l'Île (134 votes, 0.24%).  Or the worst result for an incumbent MP in his/her own incumbent riding: ex-NDP MP Manon Perreault for (again) FD in Montcalm (606 votes, 1.16%)

And Perreault did worse than maybe the best-named candidate of the whole election: the Greens' Yumi Yow Mei Ang (955 votes, 1.83%)

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

So which riding elected its MP with the lowest vote share?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Originally put this in the wrong thread:


So were there any notable demographic shifts? Like suburbanites turning against the Conservatives? Who were the swing/deciding voters here? Gender and income shifts? Did the Conservatives lose ground with the Asian vote?

I was skimming an article about the 2011 election and how it was a "western-driven" election, in that western Canada gave big numbers to the Conservatives and the Asian vote was important out there. How did that go this time around?

The Canadian brigade on Twitter was chattering about higher youth and indigenous turnout, how much of that was a factor?

[RogueBeaver]

No, Liberals dominated across demo lines in a way that hasn't been seen since '93.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, Sarnia-Lambton, which has voted for the party that formed government in every election since 1963 finally has its streak broken (Liberals finished third there!)

So, what riding is now Canada's bellwether? Well, there's a long list, and none of them go back further than 1984:

Peterborough-Kawartha
Whitby
Oakville North-Burlington (Halton)
Burlington
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
St. Catharines
Edmonton Centre
Edmonton Mill Woods

[Poirot]

So which riding elected its MP with the lowest vote share?

Not a direct answer to the question because I don't have results in tables, I just look at results one by one and I'm looking only in Quebec. Someone discussed the possibility of being elected with less than 30% of vote so I was looking for that. In quebec I found winners with less than 30%:

28.5% Saint-Hyacinthe - Bagot  NDP
28.6% Pierre-Boucher - Les Patriotes - Verchères  Bloc
28.9% Québec  LIB
29.2% Jonquière  NDP

[trebor204]

So which riding elected its MP with the lowest vote share?

Not a direct answer to the question because I don't have results in tables, I just look at results one by one and I'm looking only in Quebec. Someone discussed the possibility of being elected with less than 30% of vote so I was looking for that. In quebec I found winners with less than 30%:

28.5% Saint-Hyacinthe - Bagot  NDP
28.6% Pierre-Boucher - Les Patriotes - Verchères  Bloc
28.9% Québec  LIB
29.2% Jonquière  NDP

Elections Canada has results (http://enr.elections.ca/DownloadElectedCandidates.aspx?lang=1)
 but not the riding names. (under 30%)

Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot     Brigitte Sansoucy   NDP-New Democratic Party   28.53%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères - Xavier Barsalou-Duval   Bloc    28.64%
Quebec   - Jean-Yves Duclos   Liberal   28.90%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup -   Bernard Généreux   Conservative   28.99%
Jonquière (* FIXED *)    Karine Trudel   NDP-New Democratic Party   29.20%

Non-Quebec Riding: (Only 1 riding under 33.3%)
Nanaimo--Ladysmith
Sheila Malcolmson   NDP-New Democratic Party   33.08%

Only 2 NDPs manage to get over 50%

Windsor East    Brian Masse   NDP-New Democratic Party   51.12%
Skeena-Bulkley   Nathan Cullen   NDP-New Democratic Party   51.20%

** Update **

12,273 votes - The total margin of victory in the 14 closed Liberal wins, or the difference between a Liberal Majority or Minority government

[King of Kensington]

Markham-Unionville (+4) Mostly Chinese suburb of Toronto. Tories have done well with the Chinese lately.

Tories up 4 points in Scarborough-Agincourt also.

[MaxQue]

So which riding elected its MP with the lowest vote share?

Not a direct answer to the question because I don't have results in tables, I just look at results one by one and I'm looking only in Quebec. Someone discussed the possibility of being elected with less than 30% of vote so I was looking for that. In quebec I found winners with less than 30%:

28.5% Saint-Hyacinthe - Bagot  NDP
28.6% Pierre-Boucher - Les Patriotes - Verchères  Bloc
28.9% Québec  LIB
29.2% Jonquière  NDP

Elections Canada has results (http://enr.elections.ca/DownloadElectedCandidates.aspx?lang=1)
 but not the riding names. (under 30%)

Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot     Brigitte Sansoucy   NDP-New Democratic Party   28.53%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères - Xavier Barsalou-Duval   Bloc    28.64%
Quebec   - Jean-Yves Duclos   Liberal   28.90%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup -   Bernard Généreux   Conservative   28.99%
Mirabel   Karine Trudel   NDP-New Democratic Party   29.20%

Non-Quebec Riding: (Only 1 riding under 33.3%)
Nanaimo--Ladysmith
Sheila Malcolmson   NDP-New Democratic Party   33.08%

Only 2 NDPs manage to get over 50%

Windsor East    Brian Masse   NDP-New Democratic Party   51.12%
Skeena-Bulkley   Nathan Cullen   NDP-New Democratic Party   51.20%

Karine Trudel was in Jonquière, not Mirabel.

[trebor204]

So which riding elected its MP with the lowest vote share?

Not a direct answer to the question because I don't have results in tables, I just look at results one by one and I'm looking only in Quebec. Someone discussed the possibility of being elected with less than 30% of vote so I was looking for that. In quebec I found winners with less than 30%:

28.5% Saint-Hyacinthe - Bagot  NDP
28.6% Pierre-Boucher - Les Patriotes - Verchères  Bloc
28.9% Québec  LIB
29.2% Jonquière  NDP

Elections Canada has results (http://enr.elections.ca/DownloadElectedCandidates.aspx?lang=1)
 but not the riding names. (under 30%)

Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot     Brigitte Sansoucy   NDP-New Democratic Party   28.53%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères - Xavier Barsalou-Duval   Bloc    28.64%
Quebec   - Jean-Yves Duclos   Liberal   28.90%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup -   Bernard Généreux   Conservative   28.99%
Mirabel   Karine Trudel   NDP-New Democratic Party   29.20%

Non-Quebec Riding: (Only 1 riding under 33.3%)
Nanaimo--Ladysmith
Sheila Malcolmson   NDP-New Democratic Party   33.08%

Only 2 NDPs manage to get over 50%

Windsor East    Brian Masse   NDP-New Democratic Party   51.12%
Skeena-Bulkley   Nathan Cullen   NDP-New Democratic Party   51.20%

Karine Trudel was in Jonquière, not Mirabel.

I had the wrong Trudel

[136or142]

Elections Canada has 73,451 of 73,568 (99.84 %) polls reporting for over 24 hours now.  Does anybody know when final final results will be posted?

There are 23 ridings that still have incomplete results (though none of these are ridings where the winner might change.)  If anybody cares, these are them

1.Laurier-Ste Marie
2.Vimy
3.Toronto Centre
4.Pickering-Uxbridge
5.Whitby
6.Mississauga-Malton
7.Oakville North-Burlington
8.St. Catherines
9.Brantford-Brant
10.Ottawa South
11.Glegarry-Prescott-Russell
12.Kenora
13.Churchill-Keewatiook Aski
14.Winnipeg South
15.Lakeland (Alberta)
16.Vancouver-Quadra
17.Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon
18.Cowichan-Malahat-Langford
19.Nanaimo-Ladysmith
20.North Island-Powell River
21.Cariboo-Prince George
22.Skeena-Bulkley Valley
23.Northwest Territories

Depending on the size of the outstanding polls, I suppose it's possible that turnout could get very close to 70%.  Of course, it should be kept in mind that this is 70% of registered voters, and that there are a fair number of eligible voters who aren't registered.  I don't know what the estimates of the number of these people is though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[adma]

For the record, I tried fleshing out how things might have played out had the early-mid-campaign 3-way deadlock hypothesis held, by taking 10 points out of every Liberal share and adding it to the NDP share (yeah, crude, I know)--the (probably/possibly incorrect) number I got was 118 Con, 112 Lib, 103 NDP, 4 Bloc, 1 Green.  Just saying.

[Boston Bread]

Kootenay-Columbia has a much more conservative history than I thought. Over 60% voted for Reform and Alliance! Now the NDP defeated the CPC who are down to mid 30s there. Being an interior seat, this riding doesn't seem like one where environmentalism plays well. I wonder what happened there?

[136or142]

Kootenay-Columbia has a much more conservative history than I thought. Over 60% voted for Reform and Alliance! Now the NDP defeated the CPC who are down to mid 30s there. Being an interior seat, this riding doesn't seem like one where environmentalism plays well. I wonder what happened there?

The town of Nelson, which is heavily NDP was added into the riding from previously being in the West Kootenay riding. Environmentalism is very big in the Nelson-Creston area as that is the former provincial riding of NDP MLA and cabinet minister Corky Evans.  The Green Party also used to be strong in that area provincially and federally, but, I guess as the Liberals and the NDP have adopted increasingly pro environmental platforms, that suport has melted away.  

The entire Kootenay region used to be quite heavily NDP, as this federal riding area was once represented by CCF/NDP MP Herbert Herridge (The Squire of Kootenay East) but since the 2001 provincial election anyway the provincial riding of East Kootenay has gone heavily Liberal. Some of that, no doubt, is due to the inexplicable popularity of Liberal MLA and populist Bill Bennett, but the major city in that provincial riding, Cranbrook, is heavily conservative.  

In that regard, what probably put the NDP over the top was that the new MP, Wayne Stetski, was the mayor of that city from 2011-2014.  He won in 2011 due to a vote split and was heavily defeated for reelection 61-39%, but that he was so familiar to so many people in Cranbrook likely made him seem non threatening to many of them.

[Boston Bread]

Good points, Adam. I had my eyes on that riding late in the count because out of all 44 NDP ridings, that one seemed to be the least likely win of them. It's kind of like what Horwath saw when many "strongholds" like Trin-Spa (lol) were lost to the Liberals yet the NDP held quite well in NDP-PC races like Oshawa.

I miss the days when you could call any part of downtown Toronto an NDP stronghold.

[Holmes]

There are NDP strongholds in downtown Toronto, but when one party is beating the other by about 30% in the province, well...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

This is a bit off-topic but I stumbled upon this picture of the Tory candidate in King-Vaughn aka the Guy Fieri of Canada. This is exactly what I'd expect voters in King-Vaughn to look like.

The Liberals achieved really impressive swings in their former "white ethnic" bastions, I have to give them that.

[Hatman 🍁]

Italians swung heavily to the Tories in 2011, as evidenced by ridings like Vaughan. Italians normally vote Liberal, and I am sure the Liberals won most of them back this time.