Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread

[Poirot]

There are three judicial recount (so far, don't know if there will be possibly others).

Edmonton Mill Woods : Lib won by 79
Barrie–Springwater–Oro–Medonte : Con won by 108
Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup : Con won by 269

[136or142]

There are three judicial recount (so far, don't know if there will be possibly others).

Edmonton Mill Woods : Lib won by 79
Barrie–Springwater–Oro–Medonte : Con won by 108
Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup : Con won by 269

Judicial recounts usually make changes of no more than 5 to 10 votes one way or the other.

[Vosem]

A Conservative victory (in fact, with the same candidate, Bernard Genereux) in Montmagny was overturned by a judicial recount in 2011. Genereux's margin is greater this time, though, and hopefully history won't repeat itself.

[MaxQue]

Through, in Montmagny, there is various reports from poll workers saying the vote was badly organized and perhaps badly counted, among other irregularities (like boxes being moved from the poll station to the returning officer office without being sealed, 40 boxes from which the poll worker failed to file an official report, one report for an non-existing box and differing totals).

[Krago]

334 out of the 338 ridings have validated their election results.  We're only waiting on Churchill--Keewatinook Aski, Skeena--Bulkley Valley, Northwest Territories and Nunavut - as well as the four recounts - before we get the final numbers.

Also, 68 ridings showed at least 1% of all voters casting a rejected ballot, with Montcalm on top with 2.31%.  67 of those ridings are in Quebec.

[Hatman 🍁]

Quebec always has a lot of rejected ballots.

[DL]

A Conservative victory (in fact, with the same candidate, Bernard Genereux) in Montmagny was overturned by a judicial recount in 2011. Genereux's margin is greater this time, though, and hopefully history won't repeat itself.

Actually that is wrong. The official count had the NDP candidate ahead by 5 votes and after the recount his lead expanded to 9 votes.

[MaxQue]

A Conservative victory (in fact, with the same candidate, Bernard Genereux) in Montmagny was overturned by a judicial recount in 2011. Genereux's margin is greater this time, though, and hopefully history won't repeat itself.

Actually that is wrong. The official count had the NDP candidate ahead by 5 votes and after the recount his lead expanded to 9 votes.

But he was given winner on election night due to a wrong addition.

[Poirot]

A recount will take place in Hochelaga. NDP won by 541 votes. The liberal party is claiming irregularities.

[Boston Bread]

Sohi (Liberal - Edm Mill Woods) has won the recount. His margin increases to 92 votes from 79.
http://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/liberal-candidate-amerjeet-sohi-declared-winner-following-edmonton-mill-woods-recount?hootPostID=b0a7577897846bfb094964650d051a53

I'm guessing none of the other recounts will change the winner.

[Hatman 🍁]

A recount will take place in Hochelaga. NDP won by 541 votes. The liberal party is claiming irregularities.

The irregular thing would be the Liberals winning that seat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Would have to be some pretty significant irregularities to turn over that margin, but then Quebec Liberals have a history of whinging.

[Poirot]

After the recount in Montmagny, Généreux is confirmed winner and with 3 more votes in his magin of victory.

There will be a recount in Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River (northern Saskatchewan).

A recount for Longueuil- Saint-Hubert asked by the Liberal party was not allowed.

[adma]

Would have to be some pretty significant irregularities to turn over that margin, but then Quebec Liberals have a history of whinging.

Would parties/candidates have early access to poll-by-poll totals?  Because I can think of a lot of cases where final numbers for certain polls were *really* blatantly off due to bad tabulation gone unchecked--otherwise, they'd be fishing in the dark, I suppose...

[Njall]

Would have to be some pretty significant irregularities to turn over that margin, but then Quebec Liberals have a history of whinging.

Would parties/candidates have early access to poll-by-poll totals?  Because I can think of a lot of cases where final numbers for certain polls were *really* blatantly off due to bad tabulation gone unchecked--otherwise, they'd be fishing in the dark, I suppose...

It's normal practice for each major party candidate to have a scrutineer at each polling station, so the local campaign receives reports from their scrutineers about how each poll voted as the votes are counted.

[King of Kensington]

Popular vote by region, Quebec:

Eastern Quebec

Liberals 69,273 29.8%
NDP 60,029 25.8%
Conservatives 54,125 23.3%
BQ 39,739 17.1%

Cote-Nord and Saguenay

Liberals 63,411 26.5%
NDP 59,458 24.8%
BQ 57,332 23.9%
Conservatives 55,007 23%

Quebec City Region

Conservatives 101,232 35%
Liberals 77,313 26.7%
NDP 62,283 21.5%
BQ 40,385 14%

Central Quebec

Liberals 141,558 26.9%
BQ 131,178 25%
NDP 131,007 24.9%
Conservatives 108,824 20.7%

Eastern Townships

Liberals 155,340 31.9%
NDP 126,491 26%
Conservatives 113,105 23.2%
BQ 80,007 16.4%

Monteregie

Liberals 229,488 35.4%
NDP 170,173 26.3%
BQ 157,873 24.4%
Conservatives 70,192 10.8%

Montreal and Laval

Liberals 533,505 46.7%
NDP 275,287 24.1%
BQ 159,098 13.9%
Conservatives 139,711 12.2%

Laurentides

BQ 104,890 29.8%
Liberals 104,108 29.6%
NDP 97,655 27.8%
Conservatives 36,736 10.4%

Outaouais

Liberals 115,801 51%
NDP 59,564 26.4%
Conservatives 23,407 10.3%
BQ 22,942 10.1%

North

NDP 33,414 39.7%
Liberals 25,827 30.7%
BQ 16,049 19%
Conservatives 6,636 7.9%

[King of Kensington]

And Ontario:

National Capital Region

Liberals 281,664 53%
Conservatives 157,510 29.6%
NDP 74,451 14%

Eastern Ontario

Liberals 202,326 43.8%
Conservatives 186,378 40.4%
NDP 51,641 11.2%

Central Ontario

Conservatives 197,875 42.5%
Liberals 183,145 39.3%
NDP 62,423 13.4%

Northern Ontario

Liberals 165,955 42.9%
NDP 115,342 29.8%
Conservatives 89,453 23.1%

Southwestern Ontario

Conservatives 501,549 38.2%
Liberals 488,075 37.2%
NDP 263,715 20.1%

Hamilton-Niagara

Liberals 184,631 38%
Conservatives 165,163 34%
NDP 117,043 24%

City of Toronto

Liberals 644,768 52.7%
Conservatives 331,728 27.1%
NDP 230,078 18.8%

905

Liberals 773,227 46.4%
Conservatives 657,523 39.5%
NDP 169,862 10.2%

[King of Kensington]

And for BC...

Vancouver Island

NDP 188,076 39.9%
Liberals 100,548 21.3%
Conservatives 99,943 21.2%
Greens and others 82,953 17.6%

City of Vancouver

Liberals 146,367 46.7%
NDP 88,137 28.1%
Conservatives 68,504 21.8%

Rest of Lower Mainland

Liberals 415,581 40.7%
Conservatives 333,445 32.7%
NDP 180,676 17.7%

Interior

Conservatives  145,222  36.7%
Liberals  125,884  31.8%
NDP  108,725  27.5%

North

Conservatives  57,683  38.7%
NDP  44,196  29.6%
Liberals  37,992  25.5%

[adma]

Would have to be some pretty significant irregularities to turn over that margin, but then Quebec Liberals have a history of whinging.

Would parties/candidates have early access to poll-by-poll totals?  Because I can think of a lot of cases where final numbers for certain polls were *really* blatantly off due to bad tabulation gone unchecked--otherwise, they'd be fishing in the dark, I suppose...

It's normal practice for each major party candidate to have a scrutineer at each polling station, so the local campaign receives reports from their scrutineers about how each poll voted as the votes are counted.

But given said irregularities, is there an opportunity *after* election night--esp. given how even major party candidates can be affected (i.e. Liberal and Marxist-Leninist votes accidentally switched at a polling station and it carries through into the "official" final totals, that sort of thing)

[136or142]

Possible cabinet ministers from Quebec

The Liberals elected 40 M.Ps from Quebec.  24 in the 33 Montreal and suburban Montreal ridings, 4 of 4 in the Ouataouais  and 12 of the 41 ridings in the rest of the province.

Quebec City Region
1.Jean Yves Duclos, Quebec, Economics Professor and Department Director, C.D Howe Institute Fellow in Residence, Possible Post: Labour

Eastern Quebec
1.Diane Lebouthillier, Gaspesie-Les Iles de la Madeleine, Outfitting Business Owner, Former MNA Assistant, Regional Municipality Warden, Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (I added the rural affairs, based on the British Model)

Central Quebec
1.Francois-Philippe Champagne, Corporate Lawyer and Vice Chair Bionest Technologies,

Eastern Townships
1.Denis Paradis, Brome-Missisquoi, Law Firm Counsel and Former President Quebec Bar Association, Winery Owner, Former M.P and Junior Minister, Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs

2.Marie Claude-Bibeau, Compton-Stanstead, Executive Director Sherbrooke Museum of Nature and Science, Campground Owner, Natural Resources

Outaouais
1.Steven MacKinnon, Gatineau, Senior Vice President Hill and Knowlton Strategies (Lobbyist), Former Liberal Party of Canada National Director, Intergovernmental Affairs and Electoral Reform

2.Greg Fergus, Former Minister Senior Policy Advisor, Former Liberal Party of Canada National Director, Parish Councilor, Intergovernmental Affairs and Electoral Reform

Northern Quebec
1.Linda LaPointe, Riviere des Milles Iles, Construction Company Sales and Rental Manager, Former Provigo Grocery Store Owner, Former ADQ MNA 2007-2008,


Montreal Suburbs
1.Alexandre Mendes, Former Executive Director Montreal Immigrant and Refugee Support Services, Former M.P Constituency Assistant, Liberal Party of Canada - Quebec Past President, Immigration and Citizenship

2.Michel Picard, Montarville, Former RCMP Financial Crime Adviser, Former University Program Director, Author on Financial Crime, Solicitor General and Public Safety


Montreal
1.Pablo Rodriguez, Honore-Mercier, Communications Consultant, Former M.P and Quebec Liberal Caucus Chair, Canadian Heritage

2.Francis Scarpaleggia, Lac Saint Louis, M.P, Treasury Board

3.David Lametti, Intellectual Property Law Professor and Former McGill Faculty of Law Associate Dean,
Quebec Bar Foundation Governor, Industry

4.Anthony Housefather, Lawyer and Dialogic Corporation Executive Vice President of Corporate Affairs and General Counsel, Mayor of Cote Saint Luc,

5.Marc Garneau, Notre Dame de Grace-Westmount, M.P, Foreign Affairs

6.Stephane Dion, Saint Laurent, M.P, Environment

7.Melanie Joly, Ahuntsic-Cartierville, Melanie Joly, Lawyer and Cohn and Wolfe Communications Firm Montreal Office Managing Partner, Transportation and Infrastructure

8.Emmanuel Dubourg, Bourassa, M.P, Revenue

9.Justin Trudeau, Papineau, M.P, Prime Minister

[136or142]

Possible Atlantic Cabinet Ministers

New Foundland and Labrador
1.Judy Foote, Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, M.P, Chief Government Whip
2.Yvonne Jones, Labrador, M.P, Fisheries and Oceans
3.Seamus O'Reagan, Former Host Canada A.M, Former Premier Tobin Senior Policy Advisor, Fisheries and Oceans

Prince Edward Island
1.Sean Casey, Charlottetown, M.P, Solicitor General and Public Safety
2.Robert Morrissey, Egmont, President Global Food and PFI Group, Former M.L.A 1982-2000, and Cabinet Minister, Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs


Nova Scotia
1.Scott Brison, Kings-Hants, M.P, Finance
2.Geoff Regan, Halifax West, M.P, Speaker?

New Brunswick
1.Dominic LeBlanc, Beausejour, M.P, Attorney General and Justice

[136or142]

British Columbia Possible Cabinet Ministers
Vancouver
1.Jody Wilson-Raybould, Vancouver-Granville, Former Crown Prosecutor, Regional Chief B.C Assembly of First Nations, Indian Affairs and Northern Development

2.Joyce Murray, Vancouver-Quadra, M.P, Intergovernmental Affairs and Electoral Reform

3.Harjit Sajjan, Vancouver South, Former Detective Constable, Retired Army Lieutenant Colonel, Veterans Affairs

Lower Mainland
1.Terry Beach, Burnaby-North Seymour, Business Professor and Venture Capital Firm Managing Partner, and Graphic Design Firm CEO, Former (Nanaimo) City Councilor Revenue

2.Carla Qualtrough, Delta, Human Rights Lawyer, Vice Chair B.C Worker's Compensation Appeal Tribunal, Labour

3.Jonathan Wilkinson, Former CEO Quest Air Technologies, Former Premier Romanow Advisor, International Trade

4.Pamela Goldsmith-Jones, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, Strategic Planning Consultant, Former Mayor of West Vancouver, Transportation and Infrastructure

Surrey
1.Sukh Dhaliwal, Civil Engineer and Land Surveying Firm Owner, Former M.P

North Fraser Valley
1.Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon, Jati Sidhu, President and CEO Sidhu Group (Housing and Business Development), Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs

Interior
1.Stephen Fuhr, Kelowna-Lake Country, Commercial Pilot, Former CEO Sky Trac Systems, Retired Air Force Major, Veteran's Affairs

[136or142]

Possible West and North Cabinet Ministers
Alberta
Calgary
1.Kent Hehr, Calgary Centre, Lawyer, Former M.L.A, Social Development

2.Darshan Kang, Calgary-Skyview, Commercial Realtor and former Journeyman Welder, Former M.L.A and Party Whip, Transportation and Infrastructure

Edmonton
1.Randy Boissonnault, Edmonton Centre, Business Strategy and Management Consultant, Natural Resources

2.Amarjeet Sohi, Edmonton-Mill Woods, Edmonton City Councilor, Government Services and Public Works

Saskatchewan
1.Ralph Goodale, Regina-Wascana, M.P, Government House Leader and Deputy Prime Minister

Manitoba
Winnipeg
1.Jim Carr, Winnipeg South Centre, Former CEO Business Council of Manitoba, Former M.L.A and Deputy Leader, Industry

2.Kevin Lamoureux, Winnipeg North, M.P, Veteran's Affairs

3.MaryAnn Mihychuk, Kildonan-St Paul, Geoscientist, Former NDP MLA and Cabinet Minister, Natural Resources

4.Robert-Falcon Ouellette, Winnipeg Centre, Retired Canadian Armed Forces Veteran, Former Professional Musician, Indian Affairs and Northern Development

North
1.Hunter Tootoo, Nunavut, Former Assistant Director Housing Corporation, Former Co-Owner Arctic Insurance Brokers, Former M.L.A and Cabinet Ministers, Natural Resources

[136or142]

Possible Ontario Cabinet Ministers
Ottawa and Eastern Ontario Region
1.Karen McCrimmon, Kanata-Carleton, Self Employed Mediator, Retired Canadian Forces Lieutenant Colonel and 429 Air Transport Squadron Commanding Officer, 2013 Liberal Leadership Candidate, Veteran's Affairs

2.Andrew Leslie, Orleans, Former Information Technology Firm Defence, Public Safety and Intelligence Ottawa Unit Head, Retired Canadian Forces Lieutenant General and Former Artillery Officer, Defence

3.Catherine McKenna, Ottawa Centre, Human Rights Lawyer, Executive Director Canadian Lawyers Abroad, Former Federal Government Trade Policy Officer, Government Services and Public Works

4.David McGuinty, Ottawa South, M.P, Solicitor General and Public Safety

5.Kimberly Rudd, Northumberland-Peterborough South First Aid and CPR Training Firm Owner, Former Private College Owner

Toronto
1.Yasmin Ratansi, Don Valley East, CGA and Management Consultant, Former M.P, Labour

2.Kirsty Duncan, Etobicoke North, M.P, International Development

3.Arnold Chan, Scarborough-Agincourt, M.P, Immigration and Citizenship

4.Bill Blair, Scarborough Southwest, Retired Toronto Chief of Police, Solicitor General and Public Safety

5.Michael Levitt, York Centre, Benjamin Group Partner and Vice President of Business Development

6.Adam Vaughan, Spadina-Fort York, M.P, Transportation and Infrastrucuture

7.Bill Morneau, Toronto Centre, Executive Chair, Morneau-Shepeau (Business Consultancy), Former Chair C.D Howe Institute, Finance

8.Carolyn Bennett, Toronto-St Paul's, M.P, Health

9.Chrystia Freeland, University-Rosedale, M.P, International Trade

905 Region
1.Jane Philpott, Markham-Stouffville, Family Physician and Hospital Family Medicine Department Chair and Professor, Health

2.John McCallum, Markham-Thornhill, M.P, Industry

3.Celina Caesar-Chevannes, Whitby, Scientific Research Consultant and Firm Owner

4.Ruby Sahota, Brampton North, Criminal Defence and Commercial Lawyer

5.Navdeep Bains, Professor, Former CMA and Ford Motors Revenue and Cost Analyst, Revenue

6.John Oliver, Oakville Former President and CEO Halton Healthcare Services (Halton Health Region) and Former Ontario Health Ministry Assistant Deputy Minister, Health

North
1.Bob Nault, Kenora, Consultant Former M.P and Cabinet Minister, Defense

2.Anthony Rota, Nipissing—Timiskaming, Political Science Professor, Former M.P, Natural Resources

3.Patty Hajdu, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Homeless Shelter Executive Director

Rest of Ontario
1.Peter Fragiskatos, London North Centre, Political Science Professor and Media Commentator

2.Kate Young, London West, Thames Valley School Board Manager of Public Affairs and Community Relations, Former Television News Anchor

[136or142]

Cabinet Prediction
1.Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, Quebec
2.Finance, Scott Brison, Nova Scotia
3.Treasury Board President, Bill Morneau, Ontario
4.Industry, John McCallum, Ontario
5.International Trade, Chrystia Freeland, Ontario
6.Revenue, Navdeep Bains, Ontario
7.Labour, Yasmin Ratansi, Ontario
8.Natural Resources, MaryAnn Mihychuk, Manitoba
9.Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, Diane Lebouthiller, Quebec
10.Fisheries and Oceans, Yvonne Jones, Newfoundland and Labrador
11.Environment, Stephane Dion, Quebec
12.Canadian Heritage, Pablo Rodriguez, Quebec
13.Transportation and Infrastructure, Joyce Murray, British Columbia
14.Government Services and Public Works, Amarjeet Sohi, Alberta
15.Human Resources, Patty Hajdu, Ontario
16.Social Development, Kent Hehr, Alberta
17.Health, Carolyn Bennett, Ontario
18.Immigration and Citizenship, Alexandre Mendes, Quebec
19.Intergovernmental Affairs and Electoral Reform, Melanie Joly, Quebec
20.Indian Affairs and Northern Development, Jody Wilson-Raybould, British Columbia
21.Veterans Affairs, Karen McCrimmon, Ontario
22.International Development, Kirsty Duncan, Ontario
23.Defence, Andrew Leslie, Ontario
24.Foreign Affairs, Marc Garneau, Quebec
25.Solicitor General and Public Safety, Harjit Sajjan, British Columbia
26.Attorney General and Justice, Dominic LeBlanc, New Brunswick
27.Government House Leader and Deputy Prime Minister, Ralph Goodale, Saskatchewan
28.Chief Government Whip, Judy Foote, Newfoundland and Labrador
Speaker, Geoff Regan?


13 Incumbents
4 Previous M.Ps
11 New comers