Will there be another GOP President

[hangfan91]

Will there be another GOP President in the future in your opinion with the way the millennials are voting?

[RINO Tom]

... LOL.

[All Along The Watchtower]

this is a good thread

[GOP732]

Will there be another GOP President in the future in your opinion with the way the millennials are voting?

This is why I don't come to this site very much anymore.

[Free Bird]

mods

[Consciously Unconscious]

The Republican party got past the Great Depression, so we can get past this. 

[Abraham Reagan]

The Republican party got past the Great Depression, so we can get past this. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not with Donald Trump with his Tea Party patriots movement who pretty much has just as much Mitt Romney had in electoral strength.

Senate and Prez numbers favors Dems.

[Del Tachi]

this is a good thread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, every midterm and prez election senate maps lines favors each party respectfully; thus setting the stage we have 2-4 years, Dems are favored in NH, OH, CO & NV this year senate; those are must wins at presidential level.

[MATTROSE94]

The Republicans are strongly favored to win the Presidency in 2020 IMO.

[DS0816]

Will there be another GOP President in the future in your opinion with the way the millennials are voting?

Yes.

If that Republican is a two-term president, he/she will not have same-party majority control of both houses of Congress for 100 percent of the duration of his/her presidency.

[Figueira]

The Republicans are strongly favored to win the Presidency in 2020 IMO.

How would you rate their 2016 chances, out of curiosity?

Anyway, yes. The two party system seems stable unfortunately.

[MATTROSE94]

The Republicans are strongly favored to win the Presidency in 2020 IMO.

How would you rate their 2016 chances, out of curiosity?

Anyway, yes. The two party system seems stable unfortunately.

I would probably say that the Democrats are slightly favored in the 2016 election at this point, especially if Donald Trump gets the Republican nomination (which seems somewhat likely considering his strong poll numbers). I do feel that the Democrats will do slightly worse in 2016 than in 2012, maybe going down to 310-315 Electoral Votes as opposed to 332 Electoral Votes. I still think that the Democrats will have solid gains in the 2016 Senate races, gaining around 5 or 6 seats from the Republicans.

[5280]

Put it this way, the 3rd, 4th and 5th consecutive election of the same party boosts the chances of the opposing party to win the generation election.

[RINO Tom]

Put it this way, the 3rd, 4th and 5th consecutive election of the same party boosts the chances of the opposing party to win the generation election.

Just judging by your PM score, I strongly urge you to register as a Republican in CO and let your views be part of the party discussion.  God knows we could use fewer SoCons.

[Orser67]

We've had the same two parties for the last 150 years, and during that time neither party has managed to win more than six straight presidential elections (Republicans did so from 1860-1880). I expect both of these trends to hold.

[Brewer]

Unfortunately, yes. Obviously.

[Figueira]

The Republicans are strongly favored to win the Presidency in 2020 IMO.

How would you rate their 2016 chances, out of curiosity?

Anyway, yes. The two party system seems stable unfortunately.

I would probably say that the Democrats are slightly favored in the 2016 election at this point, especially if Donald Trump gets the Republican nomination (which seems somewhat likely considering his strong poll numbers). I do feel that the Democrats will do slightly worse in 2016 than in 2012, maybe going down to 310-315 Electoral Votes as opposed to 332 Electoral Votes. I still think that the Democrats will have solid gains in the 2016 Senate races, gaining around 5 or 6 seats from the Republicans.

So you think the Democrats are favored to win 2016, but the Republicans are "strongly favored" to win 2020? That makes no sense.

[5280]

Put it this way, the 3rd, 4th and 5th consecutive election of the same party boosts the chances of the opposing party to win the generation election.

Just judging by your PM score, I strongly urge you to register as a Republican in CO and let your views be part of the party discussion.  God knows we could use fewer SoCons.

I am registered Republican, I just don't agree with the social aspect part of the party but do vote.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

There is nothing that will inherently require turnover at the top level. The world is littered with countries, provinces and states (including some U.S. States) where parties can have streaks of up to fifty or more years in power.  Now the U.S. is a fairly dynamic country, so I don't expect the sort of staid one party rule we see in some areas of the country. The argument against is if parties become more coalition-based than they are already. in countries like Malaysia or South Africa the governing parties are propped up by ethnic coalitions, and when the head honcho gets unpopular he gets shafted in favour of somebody from a rival faction.

If the GOP and Democrats becomes inexorably linked with the coalitions they court now, hypothetically one could imagine a "detente" of sorts where the ethnic + professional + student vote never wavers from Democrat and leave them in charge of The White House and the Managerial, white, rural and suburban, lower middle-class voters stick GOP leaving them the House. It would be an abhorration, but anything could happen.

And such a scenario is far more likely than either the Democrats or Republicans fading away and being rplaced with another party. That would require either an unthinkable economic crisis involving a depression, unemployment approaching 50%, hyperinflation, sovereign default or something; or some crux issue like the one that killed off the Whigs,

[Asian Nazi]

"Voter fatigue" is horsesh**t and supported by zero empirical evidence.  What does exist, however, are business cycles.  It's uncommon for capitalist economies to maintain more than 7-10 years of constant growth without a slowdown or recession interrupting it.  Now, recessions are hard to predict.  Economists are little better than witch doctors.  That said, I think it's likely that there will be another recession that'll hit sometime around either the 2016, 2020, or 2024 election.  So the chances of either party holding the presidency for the next three cycles is unlikely.

That said, the GOP is completely screwed long term.  People who legitimately think that the Midwest is "trending R" or that the party can win back the country by becoming socially liberal are delusional.  Studies have shown that partisan loyalties are essentially locked in place by the time a voter reaches 30 and that people, if anything, become more liberal as they age.  The GOP has pretty much done nothing to win over millennials, who are on pace to completely dominate the electorate by the mid 2030's.  In addition, of course, we have Hispanics and Asians (such as myself) who are growing as a percentage of the electorate and trending D.  Hard.

So I think that the Republicans might have another president, maybe even two more in them.  But I voted No anyway because lol why not.

[MATTROSE94]

The Republicans are strongly favored to win the Presidency in 2020 IMO.

How would you rate their 2016 chances, out of curiosity?

Anyway, yes. The two party system seems stable unfortunately.

I would probably say that the Democrats are slightly favored in the 2016 election at this point, especially if Donald Trump gets the Republican nomination (which seems somewhat likely considering his strong poll numbers). I do feel that the Democrats will do slightly worse in 2016 than in 2012, maybe going down to 310-315 Electoral Votes as opposed to 332 Electoral Votes. I still think that the Democrats will have solid gains in the 2016 Senate races, gaining around 5 or 6 seats from the Republicans.

So you think the Democrats are favored to win 2016, but the Republicans are "strongly favored" to win 2020? That makes no sense.

I feel that a fairly deep recession is likely occur between 2017 and 2019, which will hurt Hillary Clinton politically and reduce her reelection chances. Combining that factor with the inevitable voter fatigue after 12 years of Democratic rule makes a Republican victory in the 2020 Presidential election a strong possibility.

[TarHeelDem]

Even if there is it might not be until 2033 at this rate.

[hopper]

Not with Donald Trump with his Tea Party patriots movement who pretty much has just as much Mitt Romney had in electoral strength.

Senate and Prez numbers favors Dems.

I don't think Trump is a Tea Party Guy. He is basically running the Campaign Playbook from Ross Perot's 1992 Campaign with a couple exceptions. Anyway a campaign like Trump is run every 25 years and "The Tea Party" is dead and it was only popular with Baby Boomers anyway.

Of course a Republican will win another Presidential I mean eventually they will. Maybe 2024 or 2028.