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CrabCake
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Posts: 19,270
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« on: October 22, 2015, 05:45:57 PM » |
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There is nothing that will inherently require turnover at the top level. The world is littered with countries, provinces and states (including some U.S. States) where parties can have streaks of up to fifty or more years in power. Now the U.S. is a fairly dynamic country, so I don't expect the sort of staid one party rule we see in some areas of the country. The argument against is if parties become more coalition-based than they are already. in countries like Malaysia or South Africa the governing parties are propped up by ethnic coalitions, and when the head honcho gets unpopular he gets shafted in favour of somebody from a rival faction.
If the GOP and Democrats becomes inexorably linked with the coalitions they court now, hypothetically one could imagine a "detente" of sorts where the ethnic + professional + student vote never wavers from Democrat and leave them in charge of The White House and the Managerial, white, rural and suburban, lower middle-class voters stick GOP leaving them the House. It would be an abhorration, but anything could happen.
And such a scenario is far more likely than either the Democrats or Republicans fading away and being rplaced with another party. That would require either an unthinkable economic crisis involving a depression, unemployment approaching 50%, hyperinflation, sovereign default or something; or some crux issue like the one that killed off the Whigs,
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