Austrian Presidential runoff re-vote (Dec. 4) - Your Predictions

[Xing]

Why are y'all predicting a Hofer win ?

All around the West, we're seeing a backlash against globalization and cultural diversity. Nationalism, nativism, and xenophobia are on the rise (well, xenophobia is more detectable, and less beneath the surface than it used to be), allowing extremists to come to power by exploiting the fears of people who feel threatened change and "the other". I'd love to see Van der Bellen win, and for Austria to withstand that backlash, but I can't get myself to hold out too much hope.

[Lachi]

Van der Bellen +0.8

[reciprocity]

Pretty unpredictable. Maybe if Kern comes out (if he hasn't already) and campaigns on behalf of vdB then maybe he could get another win.

[Tender Branson]

Pretty unpredictable. Maybe if Kern comes out (if he hasn't already) and campaigns on behalf of vdB then maybe he could get another win.

Kern and most SPÖ-politicians have already endorsed VdB already, appear with him at campaign events and allowed the VdB campaign to use their poster spaces around the country ...

On the other hand, Kern is already thinking beyond the Presidential election to the next federal elections: He debated Strache (FPÖ) yesterday, in what the media described as a "cuddle-debate", because neither man attacked the other and the debate was generally very polite and down to facts. It seems Kern is "preparing" for a possible FPÖ/SPÖ coalition, even though nobody knows how this would work. The SPÖ's Left would probably splinter in this case, or stage massive protests. But the current poisoned SPÖVP governing climate is making even FPÖ/SPÖ not that unlikely: There's a growing wing within the SPÖ that favours a coalition with the FPÖ not just on the state levels, but also the national level. In Vienna, this has led to a crisis meeting in the SPÖ recently and this intra-SPÖ split might also hurt VdB in the Dec. 4 election in Vienna ...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Van der Bellen 51.2
Hofer 48.8

[jaichind]

http://tsjh301.blogspot.hk/2016/11/austrianpresidentialelection2016.html
(from a Taiwanese website)
Probability: Hofer 55.8-44.2
PV: Hofer 50.72-49.28
(similar to jaichind)

I followed this site for years and overall liked it a lot. It has too much of a Green lean overall when it comes to ROC politics.  I was disappointed by its US election model which id you dig into it shows that it is really a proxy model of the 538 model.

[Tender Branson]

Just 4 days left to post your predictions !

[Tender Branson]

My updated prediction:

51.6% VdB
48.4% Hofer

Turnout: 65.3% (-7.4%, people are really pissed off right now after 1 year of campaigning)

[Mike88]

My prediction:

VdB: 50.5%
Hofer: 49.5%

Turnout: 67%

I would also add a margin of error of around 1%. So:

VdB: 49.5 - 51.5%
Hofer: 48.5 - 50.5%

All of the signs suggest this will also be very close, again.

[windjammer]

My prediction:
Hofer 51
Van der Bellen 49

[reciprocity]

Pretty unpredictable. Maybe if Kern comes out (if he hasn't already) and campaigns on behalf of vdB then maybe he could get another win.

Kern and most SPÖ-politicians have already endorsed VdB already, appear with him at campaign events and allowed the VdB campaign to use their poster spaces around the country ...

On the other hand, Kern is already thinking beyond the Presidential election to the next federal elections: He debated Strache (FPÖ) yesterday, in what the media described as a "cuddle-debate", because neither man attacked the other and the debate was generally very polite and down to facts. It seems Kern is "preparing" for a possible FPÖ/SPÖ coalition, even though nobody knows how this would work. The SPÖ's Left would probably splinter in this case, or stage massive protests. But the current poisoned SPÖVP governing climate is making even FPÖ/SPÖ not that unlikely: There's a growing wing within the SPÖ that favours a coalition with the FPÖ not just on the state levels, but also the national level. In Vienna, this has led to a crisis meeting in the SPÖ recently and this intra-SPÖ split might also hurt VdB in the Dec. 4 election in Vienna ...

An FPO/SPO coalition wow. How Slovakian would that be? Interesting none the less.

[windjammer]

Pretty unpredictable. Maybe if Kern comes out (if he hasn't already) and campaigns on behalf of vdB then maybe he could get another win.

Kern and most SPÖ-politicians have already endorsed VdB already, appear with him at campaign events and allowed the VdB campaign to use their poster spaces around the country ...

On the other hand, Kern is already thinking beyond the Presidential election to the next federal elections: He debated Strache (FPÖ) yesterday, in what the media described as a "cuddle-debate", because neither man attacked the other and the debate was generally very polite and down to facts. It seems Kern is "preparing" for a possible FPÖ/SPÖ coalition, even though nobody knows how this would work. The SPÖ's Left would probably splinter in this case, or stage massive protests. But the current poisoned SPÖVP governing climate is making even FPÖ/SPÖ not that unlikely: There's a growing wing within the SPÖ that favours a coalition with the FPÖ not just on the state levels, but also the national level. In Vienna, this has led to a crisis meeting in the SPÖ recently and this intra-SPÖ split might also hurt VdB in the Dec. 4 election in Vienna ...

An FPO/SPO coalition wow. How Slovakian would that be? Interesting none the less.

Why not an OVP/FPO coalition ?

[Tender Branson]

I’ve been predicting all around and I’m jeered by the US Election results this year.
This will be my WILD GUESS.

Nationwide (AT): Van der Bellen 53-47
-----------------------------------------
Burgenland (BL): Safe FPO-Solid, Hofer 58-42
Carinthia (KT): Safe FPO-Strong, Hofer 56-44
Styria (SR): Likely FPO, Hofer 53-47
Salzburg (SB): Tilt I, Van der Bellen 50.5-49.5
Lower Austria (NH): Tilt I, Van der Bellen 51-49
Upper Austria (OH): Likely I, Van der Bellen 54-46
Tyrol (TR): Safe I-Strong, Van der Bellen 57-43
Vorarlberg (VB): Safe I-Solid, Van der Bellen 62-38
Vienna (WN): Safe I-Solid, Van der Bellen 67-33

This looks like a really good prediction !

[Xing]

Well, for once, I'm happy that my prediction was wrong.

[Lachi]

I was off, thankfully it was in Van der Bellen's direction.

[peterthlee]

Thanks Branson.
A sigh of relief.