Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP presidential candidate Andreas Khol yesterday on the possibility of swearing in Strache (FPÖ) as Chancellor after the next federal election in 2018:



"I would ask the leader of the strongest party to form the next government. And if he has a coalition deal with another party, a program and a majority in parliament - then yes, I would swear in a Chancellor Strache."

http://orf.at/stories/2318275/2318277

[DavidB.]

Good. But I thought this was about any coalition with Strache, not just a coalition in which Strache is Chancellor... is that right?

[Tender Branson]

Good. But I thought this was about any coalition with Strache, not just a coalition in which Strache is Chancellor... is that right?

Unlike Jörg Haider (who "refused" to become Chancellor after the 1999 election, despite the fact that the FPÖ finished some 500 votes ahead of the ÖVP), Strache would definitely want to become Chancellor if he wins the 2018 elections. But yeah, you can interpret Khol's remarks as swearing in any FPÖ- or Strache-involved coalition.

[Tender Branson]

The campaigns of Griss (Indy) and Khol (ÖVP) want a so-called "campaign-fairness-agreement" on campaign spending.

While the ÖVP wants a spending cap of 3-4 million € for each candidate, the Griss-campaign wants a cap of just 1 million €. They also want no campaign TV ads and posters.

The SPÖ and Green campaigns are not necessarily opposed to the idea, but are still weighing the options. The Van der Bellen campaign (Greens) is likely to say something about it soon (I guess they would support some cap).

The FPÖ (which is swimming in money after their successful state elections last year) is strongly opposed to any upper limit.

[DavidB.]

Unlike Jörg Haider (who "refused" to become Chancellor after the 1999 election, despite the fact that the FPÖ finished some 500 votes ahead of the ÖVP), Strache would definitely want to become Chancellor if he wins the 2018 elections. But yeah, you can interpret Khol's remarks as swearing in any FPÖ- or Strache-involved coalition.

But do Van der Bellen and Griss refuse to swear in any coalition with the FPÖ, or only a coalition in which Strache would be chancellor?

[Tender Branson]

Unlike Jörg Haider (who "refused" to become Chancellor after the 1999 election, despite the fact that the FPÖ finished some 500 votes ahead of the ÖVP), Strache would definitely want to become Chancellor if he wins the 2018 elections. But yeah, you can interpret Khol's remarks as swearing in any FPÖ- or Strache-involved coalition.

But do Van der Bellen and Griss refuse to swear in any coalition with the FPÖ, or only a coalition in which Strache would be chancellor?

Since FPÖ = Strache, VdB rules it out.

Griss has been vague on the issue, saying it "is highly unlikely that a scenario like this will happen".

[DavidB.]

Since FPÖ = Strache, VdB rules it out.

But does he rule out a scenario with an ÖVP chancellor and an FPÖVP coalition?

[aross]

Since FPÖ = Strache, VdB rules it out.

But does he rule out a scenario with an ÖVP chancellor and an FPÖVP coalition?

Not as far as I know. It's always been phrased as "making Strache chancellor".

With all of this you have to remember that recent Austrian presidents and presidential candidates (particularly from outside the two main parties) have a bit of a history of claiming they'll make more use of their powers and, when it comes to it, never actually doing it. (See not only the Wenderegierung of '99, but also Klestil fancying himself as representative at the heads of states and governments and, of course, basically the entire Waldheim presidency.) Fischer has basically been a return to the even meeker previous standard of SPÖ grandees. (Though unlike them, he's (so far) managed to survive it. It still amazes me that it wasn't until 1986 that a (post-war) president left office alive!)

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ will present their presidential candidate today (= Rudolf Hundstorfer).

There will also be a cabinet re-shuffeling among SPÖ government members, because Hundstorfer is the current Austrian Minister for Labour and Consumer Protection.

...

Meanwhile, Strache (FPÖ-leader) held a press conference in which he ruled out a presidential run for himself. He also announced that the FPÖ will not back ÖVP-candidate Khol as President. He also said that the FPÖ is in no hurry to present their own candidate and may well wait until February to present one.

...

Ö24/Gallup has a new Presidential poll out and Griss (Indy) and Van der Bellen (Greens) remain ahead by a surprisingly big margin (I thought SPÖ and ÖVP would consolidate their support by now, but apparently not):



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Griss-und-Professor-Van-der-Bellen-Kopf-an-Kopf/219840608

...

Also, the same poll has the FPÖ at 34% after the Cologne and also Austrian abuse cases by Muslim immigrants - which is an all time record for them in Austrian federal polling.

The full poll results will be released tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

More from the new Gallup poll:

Austrians are now taking a sharp turn away from the "welcome culture" of Merkel and Faymann following the Muslim migrant mass rapes and want strict border controls and a general upper cap for asylum seekers:

76% want a general upper cap for how many asylum seekers can enter Austria each year
17% are opposed to a cap

Of the 76% who favour a cap ...

...48% want no further asylum seekers allowed into the country
...28% want up to an additional 20.000 asylum seekers each year
...12% want up to an additional 50.000 asylum seekers each year
...  2% want up to an additional 100.000 asylum seekers each year
...  1% want more than an additional 100.000 asylum seekers each year

"Do you think the influx that Austria saw last year (90.000 asylum seekers) would be doable this year ?"

75% No
17% Yes

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/76-Prozent-fuer-Asyl-Stop/219840551

[Tender Branson]

So, with the official Presidential candidates announced from SPÖ, ÖVP and Greens as well as the Indy candidacy of Irmgard Griss - we are still waiting for the FPÖ, Team Stronach (lol), BZÖ (lol) and Richard Lugner (lol).

But there's plenty time left: potential candidates have until mid-March to file for President.

To run for Austrian President, you have to be older than 35 and collect 6.000 valid signatures from Austrian voters.

Until now, a few minor candidates have already made steps to run - among them a former "Who wants to be a Millionaire ?" winner from Vienna.

[DavidB.]

Not as far as I know. It's always been phrased as "making Strache chancellor".

With all of this you have to remember that recent Austrian presidents and presidential candidates (particularly from outside the two main parties) have a bit of a history of claiming they'll make more use of their powers and, when it comes to it, never actually doing it. (See not only the Wenderegierung of '99, but also Klestil fancying himself as representative at the heads of states and governments and, of course, basically the entire Waldheim presidency.) Fischer has basically been a return to the even meeker previous standard of SPÖ grandees. (Though unlike them, he's (so far) managed to survive it. It still amazes me that it wasn't until 1986 that a (post-war) president left office alive!)

Thanks, interesting information!

[Tender Branson]

Since FPÖ = Strache, VdB rules it out.

But does he rule out a scenario with an ÖVP chancellor and an FPÖVP coalition?

Not as far as I know. It's always been phrased as "making Strache chancellor".

With all of this you have to remember that recent Austrian presidents and presidential candidates (particularly from outside the two main parties) have a bit of a history of claiming they'll make more use of their powers and, when it comes to it, never actually doing it. (See not only the Wenderegierung of '99, but also Klestil fancying himself as representative at the heads of states and governments and, of course, basically the entire Waldheim presidency.) Fischer has basically been a return to the even meeker previous standard of SPÖ grandees. (Though unlike them, he's (so far) managed to survive it. It still amazes me that it wasn't until 1986 that a (post-war) president left office alive!)

That's incorrect.

VdB recently gave several interviews in which he clearly said that he currently would not swear in a government with the FPÖ in it, because the "FPÖ is currently against anything that the EU/Europe stands for".

Of course he uses "currently", but the FPÖ's policies won't change in the next years - which means he still won't swear in a FPÖ-government after the 2018 elections.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://orf.at/stories/2318533/2318534

...

Meanwhile, the SPÖ-candidate Hundstorfer said he would swear in a FPÖ-government.

[aross]

That's incorrect.

VdB recently gave several interviews in which he clearly said that he currently would not swear in a government with the FPÖ in it, because the "FPÖ is currently against anything that the EU/Europe stands for".

Of course he uses "currently", but the FPÖ's policies won't change in the next years - which means he still won't swear in a FPÖ-government after the 2018 elections.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...

Meanwhile, the SPÖ-candidate Hundstorfer said he would swear in a FPÖ-government.

I've always taken "FPÖ-Regierung" to mean a government led by the FPÖ. I certainly, for example, wouldn't refer to the current Government of Burgenland (an SPÖ-FPÖ coalition) as a "FPÖ-Regierung" in German.

To put what Van der Bellen said in context, here's the question he was asked in the interview. (conducted by one of Austria's most respected interviewers and journalists, Armin Wolf.)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

His remarks were thus once again in the context of a FPÖ-led government.

[Tender Branson]

That's incorrect.

VdB recently gave several interviews in which he clearly said that he currently would not swear in a government with the FPÖ in it, because the "FPÖ is currently against anything that the EU/Europe stands for".

Of course he uses "currently", but the FPÖ's policies won't change in the next years - which means he still won't swear in a FPÖ-government after the 2018 elections.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...

Meanwhile, the SPÖ-candidate Hundstorfer said he would swear in a FPÖ-government.

I've always taken "FPÖ-Regierung" to mean a government led by the FPÖ. I certainly, for example, wouldn't refer to the current Government of Burgenland (an SPÖ-FPÖ coalition) as a "FPÖ-Regierung" in German.

To put what Van der Bellen said in context, here's the question he was asked in the interview. (conducted by one of Austria's most respected interviewers and journalists, Armin Wolf.)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

His remarks were thus once again in the context of a FPÖ-led government.

True. "FPÖ-government" usually means a government with the FPÖ as senior partner.

But it's more the way he talked about the FPÖ in general during the interview I posted: He said that he would not swear in the party FPÖ right now because of how they are basically destroying the EU and it's values ("Eine Partei wie die FPÖ sende derzeit alle Signale dafür aus, dass man die Europäische Union eher zerstören als weiterentwickeln wolle, weswegen sie in Van der Bellens Augen das Vertrauen des Bundespräsidenten nicht verdient habe."), which further means that he is like 99.9% certain not to swear in A) the FPÖ as senior coalition partner incl. a Chancellor Strache as well as B) the FPÖ as a junior partner in a coalition let's say with the ÖVP leading it.

[Simfan34]

Well, another argument for the Dutch monarchy

Bring back the Habsburgs?   

[aross]

True. "FPÖ-government" usually means a government with the FPÖ as senior partner.

But it's more the way he talked about the FPÖ in general during the interview I posted: He said that he would not swear in the party FPÖ right now because of how they are basically destroying the EU and it's values ("Eine Partei wie die FPÖ sende derzeit alle Signale dafür aus, dass man die Europäische Union eher zerstören als weiterentwickeln wolle, weswegen sie in Van der Bellens Augen das Vertrauen des Bundespräsidenten nicht verdient habe."), which further means that he is like 99.9% certain not to swear in A) the FPÖ as senior coalition partner incl. a Chancellor Strache as well as B) the FPÖ as a junior partner in a coalition let's say with the ÖVP leading it.

I'm really not sure what you are basing this on. I'm pretty sure you could get Hundstorfer saying similar things about the FPÖ, and yet we accept his statement - that he would appoint a FPÖ-led government - at face value. Why shouldn't this apply in VdB's case?
Also, as I said - Austrian Presidents are often all bark and no bite.

I do have to say that this whole saga is rather dampening my enthusiasm for Van der Bellen. Subverting democracy (and that's what it would be - for all the talk about alternate mandates, Austria is in practice a purely parliamentary democracy) really isn't on. I guess it will be another least-worst-option vote for the Greens rather than a genuinely happy one.


On a completely different note - I can't see why on earth Strache wouldn't want to run. It's perfect for him: a campaign determined only by personalities and the refugee crisis as the main issue. It doesn't matter if he loses (and he will lose, but that isn't the point) - if he wanted an aura of invincibility, he wouldn't have run mayor of Vienna twice. Additionally, last time, running the far-out Rosenkranz damaged the party's momentum rather badly. I suspect running a no-namer like Moser would have similar effects.

Indeed, that last poll you linked to had a "Scenario 2" (can't post links - 25 VdB, 21 Strache, 20 Griss, 16 Khol, 13 Hundstorfer, 5 Lugner). So Strache gets into the runoff, garners even more attention and piles onto the momentum for 2018. What's not to like?

Well, another argument for the Dutch monarchy

Bring back the Habsburgs?   

Thank you for making me appreciate the Austrian Presidency again. Given the views of various family members on the Opfermythos, Franco, Dollfuss and the US Government (locked in a dispute between the Jew-controlled Department of Defense and black-dominated State Department, apparently), occasionally combined with rabid Eurofederalism, that would be truly mad.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is at a new all-time high (Gallup/Ö24):



Strong majority for FPÖVP (56-40).

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/FPOe-zieht-mit-34-klar-davon/220151656

[Tender Branson]

Riding high into the new year, Strache called Faymann an "enemy of the state and a threat to Austrian citizens" in the FPÖ's New Year Convention yesterday in Wels (attended by 7.000 people).

Meanwhile, Faymann finally woke up from his naive fantasy-dream-world that he was living in and announced tougher steps to combat the (mostly illegal) migrant and crime wave (1 year too late though):

Schengen suspended as army mobilizes

On Sunday the Austrian chancellor Werner Faymann announced in an interview with the magazine ÖSTERREICH that the Schengen agreement, which permits the free movement of persons between most European Union countries without identity checks, has been 'temporarily suspended.'

Faymann said that with the new measures introduced at Austria’s borders, the existence of “the whole EU is in question.”

“All refugees must be controlled, economic migrants must be sent to the countries of their origin,” Faymann said in the interview published on Sunday.

The government is implementing a strict monitoring system for asylum seekers, the chancellor said, adding that, just like in neighboring Germany, its border controls are being tightened, and repatriations of refugees are carried out.

http://www.thelocal.at/20160116/austria-mobilizes-army-against-migrants

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

"enemy of the state and a threat to Austrian citizens"

this ... is pretty bad rhetoric, even for the FPO

[Omega21]

"enemy of the state and a threat to Austrian citizens"

this ... is pretty bad rhetoric, even for the FPO

I wouldn't say so. Both Merkel and Faymann value immigrants more than their own people, giving away Austrian Tax payers money to anyone that comes from countries in which there is no war should be a Criminal offence.

Austrians work hard for their country to prosper and have a good social state, not so anyone could come and lay on their ass and get free money, this is not sustainable in the slightest.

Especially people without any Western values, who live by the Quran and Sharia, if you dont want to integrate 100% then, Raus.

A goverment's first responsibility is it's own people (people born in the country and people who immigrated legally as workers/professionals or such).


Btw, Tender

Why do you like VdB if he supports mass immigration without a cap plus giving them all of the goodies such as welfare, when you dont support those things

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

More the "enemy of the state" rhetoric tbh which is ... not really the sort of thing mature democratic parties should be throwing around. I dunno, maybe it comes across better in German?

[Omega21]

More the "enemy of the state" rhetoric tbh which is ... not really the sort of thing mature democratic parties should be throwing around. I dunno, maybe it comes across better in German?

He could have said it a bit better, I agree...

But still doesn't mean it's not true, he is doing things which are completely contrary to the will of the people, polls show that. In simple terms he is leading the country by his own vision, regardless of what the people want..

I wonder what would be the outcome of a refferendum like "Should we accept any more Asylum requests", but I guess it would not come out to good for the Spo and Greens.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is currently doing internal polling on potential presidential candidates.

OGM (Austria's best pollster) is currently in the field for them to test name recognition of a dozen or so candidates and their favorable ratings.

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,1251207

Newspaper "Heute" is even reporting that they are testing Karin Kneissl (a Middle-East expert and journalist) as a possible surprise candidate for the FPÖ.

"Ö24" on the other hand speculates that Vienna FPÖ-leader Johann Gudenus would be their surprise candidate, because he's relatively young and far-right, which would play well with the core FPÖ-voters (=young to middle-aged working people).

[Tender Branson]

A new Presidential poll for the ORF by (online)-pollster Meinungsraum pretty much confirms the earlier Gallup poll for Ö24:



Voters polled also think that:

* The high age of candidates (~70 years for those announced) is a problem in executing the office of President (by a 63-37 margin)

* They also prefer independent presidential candidates to party candidates by a 60-19 margin

* By a 51-30 margin, voters want the future President to swear in a FPÖ-Chancellor

http://meinungsraum.at/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/MR_2418_BP-Wahlen.pdf

http://meinungsraum.at/bp_wahl_2016